Humpday Treat – Kristen Stewart, Todd Haynes and the Oscar Race

New York today put Carol front and center in a way that no other critics group could do when the NYFCC named Todd Haynes and his masterful love story Best Picture and Director of the year. Todd Haynes is one of the few who have won Picture and Director twice with the New York critics. Kathryn Bigelow is another. The difference is that when Todd Haynes was named Best Director for Far From Heaven, and Best Picture, it was not acknowledged with corresponding nominations by the Academy. Times have changed since then. The Academy has become more evolved, more “LGBTQ friendly.” It isn’t really that anyone has forced this change so much as the change has just bloomed around it. But it doesn’t hurt that Milk did so well with the Academy, of course. Either way, Haynes and the Carol team — including writer Phyllis Nagy and cinematographer Edward Lachman are having a good day. It does seem as though Carol really will finally be that movie that helps Haynes get the higher profile he so richly deserves; honestly, is there a more underrated virtuoso director out there that has been almost completely excluded from the Oscars?

As we barrel towards next weekend, when Los Angeles announces their winners, along with Boston, and then head into the Golden Globes and the SAG nominations — we’re circling closer to a consensus little by little. Each critics award is like someone in the audience shouting, “Hey, what about this?” One of the biggest boosts this morning came when Kristen Stewart’s name was announced as Best Supporting Actress for Clouds of Sils Maria. We’d all but given up on Stewart but this brings her back. The Supporting Actress category at the NYFCC is more accurate in predicting an Oscar nom than any of their other categories.

Stewart remains the only American actress to win the Cesar, which you’d think would have been enough in itself to put her forward in the conversation and to keep her there. Many months passed and sooner or later, her name faded in that conversation. The New York Film Critics have brought it back. The Supporting Actress race is still incredibly competitive. Whether Stewart can break in is still a question mark — but history tells us she will. Somehow. If Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander “go lead” it will be an easy call and Kristen Stewart will be looking at her first Oscar nomination. Clouds of Sils Maria is currently available streaming on Amazon, which should make it easier for voters to watch it, particularly with this award announcement.

Once the critics have their say — and after the big groups announce, the rest of the critics from all over the country will ring in. They will find consensus or not but not many of the smaller cities will have impact on the Oscar race. The next big event will be when the Producers Guild choose their ten, the Directors Guild choose their five. Those really are the biggest predictors and determiners, of the Best Picture race at least.

The Gurus of Gold were asked to lay down their predictions and then predict LA and New York. Some did better (Scott Feinberg) than others (me).

So far, though, the National Board of Review is offering up one scenario. The New York Film Critics then laid out another scenario that 100% ignored the National Board of Review’s position. I don’t know what LA is going to do but they might claim the Spotlight prize. It would be funny if Spotlight followed the Birdman trajectory and won the Gotham and then no other critics awards until the PGA. Honestly, I could see it shaking out that way. Second Level Chaos Theory tells us that just by predicting how a certain group will vote alters their predictions. Thus, the knowledge that Spotlight is the “frontrunner” might mean critics steer clear of it in hopes of pushing a different film that isn’t getting as much exposure.

Meanwhile, Spotlight has established a solid consensus among the pundits. A few of us stragglers aren’t so sure and it will probably take the Producers Guild to convince us. I spoke with Steve Pond yesterday and we were both scratching our heads, not knowing which movie would win or if there is a third movie that might be waiting in the wings. It’s a wide open year, no doubt about it.