Predictions Friday – Embargoes Stifling Buzz, Muddying the Picture on Eve of AFI

With three major movies seen but embargoed, it makes judging or calling the Best Picture race a little tricky this week. Publicists with movies they know will either hit or miss are holding them back from the public chatter in hopes that they will be the ones who control the narrative and not people like me, for instance. It’s an interesting strategy and relies mostly on their belief that these movies will do a lot better before reactions potentially destroy them, especially with HFPA members. December 7 is the deadline for SAG and Globe nomination ballots, and the AFI had postponed their Top Ten announcement till December 16th. Each of these awards announcements will help fit significant pieces into a kind of puzzle that will begin form the basis for Best Picture in a wide open year such as this.

The same thing kind of happened last year. Interstellar, Into the Woods and Unbroken were all late breakers that landed on the AFI top ten but by the time they were seen and talked about in the film community at large they were total non-starters at any of the major guild awards. However, and perhaps more importantly to the industry — those movies made much more money without being hampered by bad reviews. Money matters more than awards now, as Kris Tapley is always telling me. Awards only matter if they can bring money or prestige but in a pinch, they’ll take the money, first and always.  Prestige is good and all, but money is what gets you hired and fired. Money is what drives your resume. Will the same thing happen this year with the films being held back from discussion?

First, I want to emphasize the films that I think, right now, have the most heft heading into this “flying blind” zone. I don’t know if they will also resonate with Academy members, and I don’t know if they will be among the final films chosen to represent the industry as the year comes to a close. What I do know is that this has been anything but a bad year for film. It has been alive in many different ways, from animation, to films made with cell phones, to stories about women, to epic wilderness adventures, to some of the best science fiction we’ve seen in a good long time. Oh, how I wish the Academy were sci fi friendly.

One thing to bear in mind is the discussion of diversity. Salon recently covered Creed vis a vis the whole awards season barreling towards another “All White Oscars,” with Chris Rock as the host. You want to talk about impending disaster? There it is. Unstoppably so. Salon puts forth Ryan Coogler’s breakout hit Creed as perhaps solving a bit of that problem with Michael B. Jordan nominated for lead actor. I don’t think that’s happening but there is a chance — a really good chance — Creed gets in for Best Picture. How do we build Best Picture most of the time? Branch by branch, says Anne Thompson, and it seems likely Creed could get in with many different branches. If the cinematographer Maryse Alberti is nominated, for instance, that will make Oscar history with the first female cinematographer EVER NOMINATED. Ever. Will they? I have no idea. They certainly won’t do it for that reason. The fight scenes alone deserve it though. Other possibilities include a Best Actor nod for Will Smith – a deserving one for sure and that seems a little more possible than Michael B. Jordan, given the voter’s tendency to lean towards name brands. Idris Elba could be nominated for Beasts of No Nation and, heck, Jennifer Hudson for Chi-Raq. There are possibilities but the consensus is the consensus and it swirls around a handful of names.

So what films are popping right now?  Mad Max, which is doing extraordinarily well with critics and has a solid shot at a Picture/Director nomination at the very least, but scads of tech noms to boot. Editing, cinematography, production design, sound. Carol is definitely popping, with the potential for Picture, Director and scads of tech noms including cinematography, costume, production design.  Brooklyn is definitely popping, making good word-of-mouth money and is being talked about and seen by more people “out there” than almost any other film in limited release. That’s big. And puts Saoirse Ronan way at the top as your potential Best Actress winner. Yes, everyone loves success in Hollywood and that movie is a success. The Martian still seems like it could be big but we have no real way of knowing that until those nominations come in. Our frontrunner, Spotlight, is sitting pretty in the Best Picture win zone without winning TOO MANY critics awards so that it can at last win the big industry awards and allow guild voters a sense of discovering it on their own.  Expect all five to show up on the AFI list.  Creed is definitely popping. Great reviews, superb box office and a general audience crowdpleaser all seem to indicate Creed could have what it takes.

Next swing get a little more dicey because we have three Big Oscar Movies still under embargo. We can’t build consensus off fanboygasms on Twitter. It doesn’t work that way. Whatever is going on between film and voters it’s being done behind closed doors, at private parties, with people like me mostly shut out of the process since we can’t really be part of the discussion to help shape the narrative going forward. I’ve never seen anything like this happen and I know from experience one can’t trust one’s own impression on a movie. How it “plays,” what “the take” is, how the buzz builds seems to matter more. Even if you can get films like American Sniper and Extremely Loud and The Blind Side into the Oscar race without pundits/bloggers/columnists/critics talking about them, sooner or later the jig is up and people figure out that the film’s a stinker, if it is, indeed, a stinker.

I can say that there isn’t a true stinker in the bunch that is heading for Best Picture right now. Some are better than others, and some are more offensive and repugnant than others, but there is no true stinker floating in the bowl, at least not until the critics get a hold of one.

Thus, the AFI’s list might include three of the late breakers like it did last year. Then again, it might not. We have no earthly idea yet. Let’s look at their history since Oscar expanded Best Picture.

2014 6/8
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Nightcrawler
Selma
Unbroken
Whiplash

2013 7/9
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street

2012 8/9
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

2011 7/9
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball 
The Tree of Life
War Horse
(The Artist won a special citation)

2010 9/10
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
(The King’s Speech won a special citation)

2009 5/10
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Coraline
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
The Messenger
Precious
Sugar
Up
Up in the Air

The embargo test was, as you can plainly see, in play last year.  It was easier for them to assume in a vacuum that those would be thought of as some of the “best films of the year.” But once they were let out into the light of day and people started to reacting to them? Not so much. So be careful when the AFI announces. You might see movies that seems like Oscar movies. They look like Oscar movies on paper. They are being pushed as Oscar movies but in reality, they aren’t nor will they ever be Oscar movies.

Without the chattering class throwing that shit at the wall to see what sticks, however, it’s harder to tell what will and what won’t happen just based on screenings, or early lists declaring best films of the year. How to gauge what people will think once they actually start seeing the movie is the hard part in a year like this. So let’s start with what we DO know.

We’re pretty sure these movies are going to be on AFI’s list:

Spotlight – slam dunk, no question about it.
The Martian – seems like a good bet
Carol – for sure will make AFI’s list.
Bridge of Spies – beloved all around, seems like it’s in.
Brooklyn – is probably AFI bound unless there is some weird international rule that applies.
Mad Max – will make AFI’s list without breaking a sweat.
Inside Out – this is a movie that would have no trouble getting into Oscar’s lineup if there were ten. It still might get in with five, though it’s a smidge more iffy. Seems less iffy to me now that we’ve seen everything.
Room – seems like a sure bet. Won audience award in Toronto.

Two slots left – will it be from this list?
Creed – I think this one feels like it’s looking more surefire by the day
Steve Jobs – will the disappointing box office prevent this great film from getting in? I have no idea. It’s one of the questions that will soon be answered.
Beasts of No Nation – what a masterpiece. Will they remember it?
Anomalisa – another masterpiece, but who knows?
Ex Machina – wow, what an incredible film. Can it, might it?
Sicario – coming on strong and well liked overall.
Concussion – it might hit here before moving on to Oscar.
Tangerine – you just never know if this kind of innovation will hit or not.

Or will the two titles come from the embargoed films The Revenant, The Hateful Eight and Joy. The Revenant is the most sure bet of the three – more on that later. If it were up to me it would be both The Revenant and Joy to get in. But The Hateful Eight is already a passionate favorite of many and despite its extreme violence, the love for Tarantino might push it through, especially without reviews around to sully the picture.

I honestly cannot say what the AFI will do. But I do know that without these movies being reviewed and talked about anything can happen in the early part of the race. You can’t run from the chattering class for long. One reason why Telluride is such a good jumping off point for Best Picture winners is that these movies run the gauntlet and are left standing strong. Carol, Mad Max and Inside Out have been kicking around since Cannes. That’s how formidable they seem to be at the moment.

But if you want to maximize profits for a big movie coming out at the end of the year? Probably a good idea to play it safe and shut people up. I wouldn’t want my $70 or $100 million movie in the hands of the chattering class, that’s for sure. On the other hand, if you know you have a good movie then you know you have a good movie. Reviews can only help the box office profits even further.

And now, we’re on to predictions. I’ve pretty much seen everything that is “in play,” with a few films I still need to see for different categories other than Best Picture.

Best Picture
1. The Martian
2. Spotlight (the safe bet to win)
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Brooklyn
6. Carol
7. Room
8. Mad Max: Fury Road
9. Creed
10. Inside Out
Longer shots but still viable: Joy, Steve Jobs, Beasts of No Nation, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight

Best Director
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
4. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
5. George Miller, Mad Max OR Todd Haynes, Carol
Longer shots but still viable:  Ryan Coogler, Creed, Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation, Lenny Abrahamsson, Room, John Crowley, Brooklyn

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Matt Damon, The Martian
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Longer shots but still viable: Michael Caine, Youth, Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs, Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Longer shots but still viable:  If put in lead, obviously, Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara, Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), Lily Tomlin (Grandma), Blythe Danner (I’ll See You in my Dreams), Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van).

Supporting Actor
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
3. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
4. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
5. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Longer shots but still viable:  Tom Hardy, The Revenant , Jacob Tremblay, Room, Christian Bale, the Big Short.

Supporting Actress
1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
Longer shots but still viable: Jane Fonda, Youth, Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs, Jessica Chastain, The Martian
Tessa Thompson, Creed, Rachel McAdams, Spotlight, Joan Allen, Room

Original Screenplay
Spotlight, Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
Inside Out, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Pete Docter
Bridge of Spie, Charman, the Coens
Trainwreck, Amy Schumer
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Longer shots but still viable: Ex Machina, Alex Garland or David O. Russell, Joy

Adapted Screenplay
The Martian,  Drew Godard
Carol, Phyllis Nagy
Brooklyn, Nick Hornby
Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
Anomalisa, Charlie Kaufman
Also viable: Ryan Coogler, Aaron Covington, Creed, Emma Donoghue, Room, Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant, Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation

Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Spotlight
Bridge of Spies
Also in play: Creed, Hateful Eight

Cinematography
The Revenant
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Bridge of Spies or Hateful Eight
Also in play: Creed, The Martian, Brooklyn, The Walk, The Danish Girl

Costume
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road

Makeup and Hair
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Danish Girl
Carol

Original Score
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
The Danish Girl
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
Carol
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
The Martian
Jurassic World

Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
Inside Out
Jurassic World

Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk
The Martian
Jurassic World
Also: The Revenant, Ex Machina, Crimson Peak

Animated Feature
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Shaun the Sheep

Documentary Feature
He Named Me Malala
Amy
Heart of a Dog
Cartel Land
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief  or Where to Invade Next

Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul
Mustang
The Second Mother
A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
The Assassin

Animated Short
Sanjay’s Super Team
Bear Story
An Object at Rest
Prologue
If I Was God

Live Action Short
Shok
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Stutterer
Ave Maria

Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
My Enemy My Brother
Last Day of Freedom
50 Feet From Syria

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