Predictions Friday – Spotlight and that that Ensemble Nomination

Spotlight was first declared the frontrunner by our favorite person to declare such things, Kyle Buchanan over at Vulture as far back as Sept 14, the day it screened at TIFF. That has since been backed up by many a pundit, including all of those at both Gold Derby and Movie City News. No other film has, as yet, taken that number one spot. A few of us thought the Martian’s popularity would drive it through, and coupled with the widespread feeling that Ridley Scott is overdue, it could challenge Spotlight for the win. This week’s SAG Ensemble choices have put a serious damper on that possibility. Thus, based on SAG Ensemble stats that stretch back many years, the Best Picture winner should be, by default, one of the following:

Spotlight
Beasts of No Nation
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo
The Big Short

I’m not one to gamble on long shots. And I would venture to guess that even if Tom McCarthy were to somehow be left off the Best Director slate by the Academy (which he won’t be) Spotlight could and would still win because of that SAG precedent. So what’s the SAG stat? Most of my readers know it well because it comes up every time a film is thought possible to win Best Picture without it.  Remember Avatar or Zero Dark Thirty.  Each and every time those who doubt the stat say “that doesn’t matter,” it always does matter. Even having two acting nominations can’t trump that SAG Ensemble prerequisite.

What was the only film ever to beat the stat? Braveheart and Mel Gibson, which happened way back in the early days of SAG’s relatively brief history, long before the big industry guild votes mostly took control of the rudder, hampering any alternative choice the Oscars might have had in mind. As it happened, Braveheart became the de facto choice for two reasons. (1) Because Apollo 13 didn’t have a directing nomination (didn’t stop Ben Affleck but back then this seemed to matter more because there were only five Best Picture nominees and five Best Directing nominees, which were usually paired). And (2) perhaps it was just not a film that people felt passionately about. They felt ‘obligated’ to vote for Ron Howard but they didn’t really like the movie that much. Still, Apollo 13 won the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, but in the last act ol’ Mel Gibson and his very passionate Braveheart took the top prizes in a total 11th hour shocker.

Shockers like Braveheart don’t really happen anymore because of the shortened season. There is simply not enough time for another contender to topple such a massive consensus that snowballs with thousands of voters, and a preferential ballot that is designed to homogenize any AMPAS diversity. That which wins the Producers Guild wins Best Picture even if it doesn’t win the DGA, the SAG Ensemble, or even Best Director. That’s the current rule of the Oscars that probably won’t change unless they go back to five nominees and dump the preferential ballot.

If you’re looking for a film to “Braveheart” its way to a win, you will be looking for the movie that will win because of passion and passion alone. To “Braveheart” an Oscar victory would sidestep the need for a SAG ensemble nomination. It would just need to be popular among the actors and the steak-eaters alike. I look out at the race right now and I will admit to knowing nothing. I didn’t see Birdman coming. I didn’t see Argo coming. Those blindsided me in terms of what kinds of films can win and why. In retrospect, I kind of get Birdman’s win. Argo’s is still a mystery unless you think about passion, the halo effect and how all of the other top rivals split up the vote.

What films might unite all the voters with a passion vote? Follow Best Director. In 1996, Mel Gibson won the National Board of Review for Best Director. He also won the Golden Globe for Best Director. Back then, there was so much time to let the charm factor kick in (and, let’s face it, he was a major hottie — a former pretty boy with the “halo effect” at a level 10 — watch him in The Year of Living Dangerously to see how gorgeous he was). Each time ol’ Mel got up to accept an award the buzz began to swell. People knew they were “supposed to” vote for Apollo 13 because it was the more ‘important” film. But they liked Mel Gibson because he was a movie star — a pretty boy made good, like Robert Redford or Warren Beatty. Somehow it all got upended at the Oscars, which was held all the way to March 25 that year — and the lack of a directing nomination for Apollo 13 gave voters an excuse to adhere to the all important “Best Director” stat. And thus, Braveheart became the only film to ever win Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nomination.

Did they make the right choice? I prefer Apollo 13, I have to admit, though neither film is as good as Ang Lee’s Sense and Sensibility, which should have won and probably did chip away at the “not Mel Gibson” vote to hurt Apollo 13 in the end. Chris Noonan’s Babe was also up for Best Picture in ’96 and it, too, is better than either Apollo 13 or Braveheart, in my mind. But the Academy — say it with me now — IS RULED BY ACTORS. They make up the majority of the membership. When one of their own makes good like Mel did with Braveheart, that’s a big deal. Or when they like a movie enough to give it an ensemble nod, that’s a big deal. When the actors shut out The Martian at SAG it was a reminder of Braveheart, which was also shut out for any nominations. Not that The Martian is Braveheart, it should be remembered, but the parallels are worth noting nonetheless.

By the way, of the films that were up for ensemble that year, only two went on to even get a Best Picture nomination – Apollo 13 and Sense and Sensibility. The other three were Get Shorty, How to Make an American Quilt and Nixon.  SAG Ensemble certainly doesn’t guarantee a BP nomination, but without it a crucial piece of the voting block is missing.

Also worth noting: another weird thing about the Braveheart year? The only three directors whose films were up for Best Picture were Mel Gibson, Chris Noonan and Michael Radford for Il Postino. They weren’t going to give Best Picture to Babe or Il Postino.  That just wasn’t going to happen. So their only alternative would have been between splitting up the Picture/Director vote or going with Braveheart. Seems like an easy call in a weird year like that one. The other two directors were Tim Robbins for Dead Man Walking and Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas.

For the passion vote this year, I could see The Martian (Ridley Scott already won NBR, and if he wins the Globe, he follows Mel’s trajectory), Carol (Todd Haynes going so long unrecognized could be a factor, and he would become the first openly gay Best Director to win — I’m fairly sure — if by “openly” we mean: widely known to be gay outside Hollywood circles.)  The Big Short (seriously, the thing could go all the way), Mad Max: Fury Road (really could keep winning straight through the season, as it has been so far). Straight Outta Compton — a rousing crowdpleaser with the first black director to maybe win? Ditto for Creed although it isn’t showing up like Compton did with SAG. And of course, Beasts of No Nation — a film that really is a masterpiece of filmmaking. If Cary Fukunaga gets a DGA nomination, that could help seal the deal. In such a wide open race, that SAG Ensemble nod counts for a lot. We can’t write anything off at this stage but more than likely, it’s Spotlight’s to lose.

Probably in all likelihood this isn’t going to be a year like 1996. The SAG stat will likely hold for Best Picture at least. It will probably hold for Best Director although you never know. If Spotlight keeps winning heading into the Globes and then with the Producers Guild, it will be unstoppable, much like The Artist and the King’s Speech. But if a director pops up and starts winning, like Ridley Scott or George Miller, it could be a set up for a potential 11th hour steal. That feels like a long shot gamble at the moment, however.

Predictions

Best Picture

1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Carol
5. The Revenant
6. The Big Short
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Room
9. Beasts of No Nation
10. Straight Outta Compton 
11. Inside Out
12. Brooklyn
13. Creed
14. Sicario
15. Trumbo

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Matt Damon, The Martian or Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Best Actress

1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
4. Cate Blanchett, Carol
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years or Charlize Theron, Mad Max

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actor is turning out to be the toughest category to predict. When in doubt, with all acting categories, you follow two principles. 1) Best Picture heat. If the film is nowhere near Best Picture the chances start to diminish. 2) Star power. A big star can trump the lack of Best Picture heat. Someone like Paul Dano or Sylvester Stallone or Michael Shannon could still get in even without Best Picture heat. But Jacob Tremblay in Room and Mark Rylance and Christian Bale obviously have a better chance because of the potential for Best Picture coattails association. Then there are the Spotlight duo. This category really needs ten slots and it’s impossible to narrow it down yet, honestly.

1. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short 
4. Jacob Tremblay, Room or Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight or Michael Keaton, Spotlight (too competitive for both to get in) or Sylvester Stallone, Creed or Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

I cheated, I know. I can’t handle the truth, that’s the truth.

Supporting Actress

1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria; or Jane Fonda, Youth

Director

1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Ridley Scott, The Martian
3. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. Todd Haynes, Carol
5. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
6. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
7. F. Gary Grey, Straight Outta Compton
8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
10. Jay Roach, Trumbo
11. Adam McKay, The Big Short

Original Screenplay

1. Spotlight, Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
2. Inside Out, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Pete Docter
3. Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman, the Coens
4. Trainwreck, Amy Schumer
5. The Hateful Eight, Quentin Tarantino
   
6. Ex Machina, Alex Garland

Adapted Screenplay

1. Carol, Phyllis Nagy
2. Adam McKay, The Big Short
3. The Martian, Drew Godard
4. Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
5. Room, Emma Donoghue
6. Anomalisa, Charlie Kaufman
7. Brooklyn, Nick Hornby
8. The Revenant, Alejandro G. Inarritu,  Mark L. Smith
9. Beasts of No Nation, Cary Fukunaga

Editing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Big Short
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Spotlight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Creed
8. Hateful Eight

Cinematography

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. The Revenant
4. The Hateful Eight 
5. Bridge of Spies
6. Sicario
7. Creed
8. The Danish Girl 

Production Design

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. The Revenant
4. The Danish Girl
5. Bridge of Spies

Sound Mixing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Jurassic World
6. Love & Mercy

Sound Editing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Inside Out
4. The Martian
5. Jurassic World

Costume Design

1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. The Danish Girl
4. Brooklyn
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Crimson Peak

Original Score

1. Carol
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Inside Out 
6. Spotlight
7. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Foreign Language Feature

1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. The Second Mother
4. A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence
5. The Assassin
6. Labyrinth of Lies
7. Rams
8. Viva
9. Goodnight Mommy
10. Felix et Maria

Documentary Feature

1. He Named Me Malala
2. The Look of Silence
3. Amy
4. Heart of a Dog
5. Listen to Me Marlon
6. Cartel Land
7. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
8. Where to Invade Next
9. The Hunting Ground
10. What Happened, Miss Simone?
11. Best of Enemies

Animated feature

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Peanuts Movie
4. The Good Dinosaur
5. Shaun the Sheep

Visual Effects

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Force Awakens
3. The Walk
4. The Martian
5. Jurassic World

Makeup and Hair

1. Carol
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Danish Girl
4. The Revenant
5. Suffragette
6. Black Mass

The Critics Choice award are announced Monday the 14th. The AFI names its 10 Movies of the Year Tuesday or Wednesday. So by then we will have a little bit more of a clear picture.