Preview of Three-Way Film Critics Weekend – LA, Boston, New York Online

Saturday, the Washington DC Film critics announce their awards. Coming up on Sunday, there will be three critics groups announcing at roughly the same time – the Los Angeles Film Critics, the Boston Film Critics and the New York Film Critics Online.

The most influence I’ve ever seen film critics have lately is when Marion Cotillard got a nomination last year in place of Jennifer Aniston. Other than that, they can have an impact in that they get listed on the ads for the films. That can have meaning and impact.  Also, if they’re a big group they tend to get announced on the news, as opposed to just filtered through backchannels. So if you’re an Academy member driving home from dinner you might hear “And the Los Angeles Film Critics named Spotlight the best film of the year.”

Trickle down gets kind of muddled once all of the groups start piling on. The Golden Globes and SAG nominations are all coming next week. Stay tuned for contest info.

Last year, all three of this weekend’s trio and many other groups, including BAFTA, went for Boyhood, while the industry guilds went for Birdman. It was one of the most dramatic splits I’ve seen in the years I’ve been covering the race.

2014
Best Picture
NBR-A Most Violent Year
NYFCC + LA+Boston+NYFCO – Boyhood
PGA/DGA/SAG/Oscar – Birdman

2013
Best Picture
NBR – Her
NYFCC – American Hustle
LA – Gravity/Her
Boston – 12 Years a Slave
New York Online – 12 Years a Slave
PGA/DGA – Gravity
SAG – American Hustle
PGA/Oscar – 12 Years a Slave

2012
NBR + NYFCC + Boston + NYFCO – Zero Dark Thirty
LAFCA – Amour
PGA/DGA/SAG/Oscar – Argo

2011
NBR – Hugo
LAFCA – The Descendants
SAG – The Help
NYFCC+Boston+NYFCO/PGA/DGA/Oscar – The Artist

The only consistent group since they expanded Best Picture using the preferential ballot is the Producers Guild. Set your watch by it.

So far, this year looks like this:

2015
NBR – Mad Max: Fury Road
NYFCC – Carol

The discussion on Twitter seems to be that they could choose maybe Mad Max or Spotlight. Which films do you think these groups will go for?