2016 SAG Award Winners: Spotlight, DiCaprio, Larson, Elba, Vikander

I know, but that’s just a theory. We’ve heard those before about this or that movie not nominated by SAG, yet the rule holds every year. Also, as I’ve said before, the Best Screenplay and WGA snubs are unquestionable, and no movie has ever won without both of those.

“I think that it is much closer to “Saving Private Ryan” or “Gladiator”.”

SPR didn’t win either, though, as you know. 🙂 Anyway, if it’s closer to those, then why were those both nominated for SAG Ensemble and Best Screenplay, while The Revenant isn’t (like Gravity and, in the case of SAG Ensemble only, Life of Pi)?

I definitely think Elba was absolutely deserving, but you have to admit when something happens that has never happened for 20 years, in any of the 4 categories it could have happened in, it’s a little fishy and lends itself to speculation about what made the situation this year special enough for this to happen, because its being completely random seems a bit less likely after that much time. And the first possibility that comes to mind… 🙂

Did you miss Mel S.’s informative post below? She’s a SAG voter, and she says Netflix offered 3 months of free Netflix and screeners of ”Beasts” to the 150,000 members of SAG. She assumes Netflix did the same for the 6,000 Academy members. But did the Oscar voters watch ”Beasts”?

Or, as I suspect, the older white Academy members weren’t interested in seeing a story about child soldiers in Africa, so they never even saw the ”Beasts” screener.

He appeared in multiple scenes with Domhnall Gleeson and they spent many months together on location making The Revenant, so it’s strange that he wouldn’t know how to pronounce Domhnall Gleeson’s name properly (it’s Doe-nall, by the way)

Ryan – First thank you for deleting the post. Second – I love Sasha even when she annoys me with her picks because she posts like my big sister who has strong opinions with a great heart. And I like you for what you contribute to this site.

I really don’t care what Hillary stood for in 1990s, and I am happy she stands with LGBT community now, I don’t attack Hillary on this issue. But I have to defend Bernie because your post said “He was against gay marriage”. He was not against gay marriage or gay rights at any time. He may not have led the fight, but he was with the community for a long long long time. That is the truth. Truth must be told loud and clear.

Bernie supporters like me don’t think he is a saint. But we do think he is what the country desperately needs. A man who talks about issues that are extremely important for the country, and before anyone accuses Bernie supporters of misogyny (which happened on this site that I love) – his core support came from the Run Warren movement.

PS : In the long term, my top priority is that we have the best possible replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg. That’s all.

Balu writes:

Very classy Ryan, You must be very proud of how you handled the whole issue, because you are re-posting it here in the comments section. I cant speak for Susan Sarandon, but I can definitely speak for Bernie as an LGBT community man. Bernie supported pride in 1983 in Burlington, voted against DOMA, DADT, opposed prop-8, supported gay rights and gay marriage in 2006 but opposed pushing for it in Vermont legislature only because of what happened in Vermont legislaturein 2005.

Balu, I forgot that Disqus carries multiple tweets intact into discussion threads. I didn’t know it would bring big chunks of tweet media too. I’m deleting all that here because it took up too much space on the page. Thanks for calling this to my attention. I’m in Disqus admin dashboard most of the time and I don’t see how things appear on the external site.

But yes, I’m proud to stand up to the shallow and rather brainless tweets of anybody who tries to pretend Saint Bernie has a faultless record. He doesn’t “stand up” to the NRA. He didn’t need to have very large balls to “stand up” to anyone in Vermont about gay rights either.

Yes, Bernie Sanders “stood with” gay people in Vermont — he “stood beside” us. He did so because he thought it was right — and mostly he did so because he knew it was politically expedient.

In fact, by 1983, it would be political suicide for a Democrat in Vermont NOT to stand with gay constituents. Progressive Vermont citizens are the people who assured Bernie the votes he needed to stay in office.

Yes, I’m proud to face down any lazy person on Twitter, I don’t care if they’re a popular celebrity or not. Susan Sarandon should try to see if she can support Bernie without the need to beat up on Hillary. She attacked Hillary Clinton for having a public opinion and then changing her mind. As if evolving as human being is a bad thing.

I was pointing out to Sarandon that she too has said crude and stupid things in the very recent past. I would like to think Sarandon has evolved and become less ignorant than she was 5 years ago (although she has made no effort to say whether she still thinks it’s cute to call transgender people “Trannys” — so maybe she still thinks it’s funny af.)

I want to make another thing very clear: This is 100% Sasha’s site. Awards Daily is not any way, shape, or form my site.

I just help out around here. In the comments, I’m no different from any other reader, I’m no different than you. (though if you ever have a problem, you can come to me and I’ll fix it for you.)

As you say, Bernie knew what he needed to do strategically in Vermont in order not to force the gay rights issue before the entire state was ready to handle it. I don’t mind that. Nor do I mind that Hillary did the very same thing on a national level.

I have no problem with any LGBT person who wants to support Bernie — as long as they realize that it’s more complicated than Sarandon’s bimbo attitude: “Bernie loves gay people and Hillary doesn’t!”

That right there is some stupid bullshit. It’s a silly shallow lie and Sarandon stood at a rally with Bernie in Iowa 2 night ago and tried to act as if Hillary can’t be trusted because she wasn’t there for gay people when Bernie was. She tweets the same lie to her 322,000 followers on twitter.

I use the opportunity to remind those 322,000 people that nothing Hillary or Bernie did is responsible for Gay Marriage now being the law of the land. Neither one of them had the power to make that happen. The Supreme Court did it.

And if we want to keep the Supreme Court out of the hands of Republican President Trump who will probably be in a position to appoint 3 new Court Justices with lifetime terms — 3 hardcore conservative judges on the Court for the next 40 or 50 years — then I’m more concerned with which Democrat can defeat Trump or Cruz or Rubio.

I do not give a fuck what pissant parade Bernie marched in in 1983, nor do I give a fuck what Hillary said in 1985. I care about who both candidates are today.

And TODAY they both have IDENTICAL attitudes about gay rights. Do you doubt that? Do you not think Hillary supports gay rights and gay marriage NOW?

Who cares who spoke out “First!” This isn’t an effing game of tag. Bernie does get to claim that he’s every gay boy’s longtime sugar daddy and encourage the stupid perception that Hillary is Anita Bryant in sheep’s clothing.

Susan Sarandon needed to hear from a gay person who DOES NOT think Bernie hung the moon, and that’s what I did. I let her know that her facts were full of holes and I wanted her to know that WE CAN ALL SEE how supersensitive she is to LGBT people when she she said: “GLAAD is out of control !! TRANNY is a fun word! ”

Sarandon took that clumsy stance while transgender people are being physically beaten and verbally abused by assholes who yell “Tranny!”

Meanwhile all Sarandon cared about in 2010 was “Leave Rocky Horror Alone! Tranny is a hilarious word!”

Thanks, Balu for giving me the opportunity to say how I feel in a far better way than linking to my twitter argument with silly shallow Susan Sarandon could ever express.

I think Beasts is a long, hard slog compared to the other contenders. I watched it over three days. If I had 10 other movies plus Beasts, Beasts would likely be the last one I would put on. I’ve watched a lot of contenders this year, and BonN is the least clear in my mind. It didn’t stick out, and I barely remember Elba, in contrast with Stallone, Bale, Rylance, Dano, Del Toro, and a few others. That’s just me, but maybe Academy members agreed.

Or has enough charisma

I agree. Saoirse Ronan should win Best Actress.

Very classy Ryan, You must be very proud of how you handled the whole issue, because you are re-posting it here in the comments section. I cant speak for Susan Sarandon, but I can definitely speak for Bernie as an LGBT community man. Bernie supported pride in 1983 in Burlington, voted against DOMA, DADT, opposed prop-8, supported gay rights and gay marriage in 2006 but opposed pushing for it in Vermont legislature only because of what happened in Vermont legislature in 2005. Losing a vote in the legislature in 2006 would have setback gay rights in the state, so he was being strategic about his push for gay marriage while supporting it. And here is a letter he published in 1970’s supporting gay rights http://www.alternet.org/civil-liberties/bernie-sanders-was-full-gay-equality-40-years-ago

So yes, brag all you want about how you dealt with Susan Sarandon, this is Sasha’s and your site after all. But please do respect your readers and understand that your posts carry a lot of weight.

He has been around a long time and never won.

It just got tech awards and two acting noms. A very crappy movie can still have a good performance or two and good production values. Redyame would not have gotten nominated if it was not such a crappy year for male lead performances. Still they could have taken him out since he really does not deserve it plus he won last year.

🙁 I thought I was Paddy’s henny.

Viola is a great actress and it easily the best thing about her show but i would like to see someone different win.

Hooray!

True. But since SAG did nominate ”Beasts of No Nation” and Elba a month before the whole diversity drama broke out at the Academy, clearly they saw merit in the film and his performance in the first place. As I said to GoldDerby.com, if his ”fellow actors really want to make a statement about OscarsSoWhite, they could give Elba the SAG Award.” Maybe he won on sheer merit. Maybe the controversy helped. Maybe both. But he’s still deserving.

I really like Brie Larson and I like Room. But, for me, neither gold a candle to Saoirse Ronan and Brooklyn.

Better role, better screenplay, better performance, better movie.

(In spite of the fact that Mel S calls Brooklyn “Straight Carol” :-{

Keaton’s speech was a mess. Nobody who tried to listen to his words would be able to say “wow, that Michael Keaton really made me think about what’s important.”

His speech was sort of an insult to the actual meaning of Spotlight — he made it ALL ABOUT HIMSELF, as he always does. “For me this award is for all the powerless… and you can hang me for that if you want to.”

WTF? Why would anybody want to hang you, Keaton? Because you feel bad for the powerless, and say so out loud, you think demons are coming after you to HANG YOU?

Please shut up. All you did was read your lines in a movie. You didn’t help anybody.

And relax, nobody is going to hang you, you weird little glory-whore martyr.

actors are the largest branch, but as our friend who runs NeverTooEarly has reminded us, they only represent 16% of the total AMPAS membership.

That percentage is not enough to push a film to a BP win — even if all actors voted alike.

But for all we know, only 21% of SAG voters voted for Spotlight — that would be theoretically enough for a win (if the other 4 films got 20%, 20%, 20%, 19%)

so, with so many great movies this year, it’s very possible that no more than 25% percent of AMPAS actors — or even less — will vote for Spotlight.

25% of 16% is a paltry 4% of Oscar actors…

that’s the math.

without any math, I say we can’t depend on the Actor’s branch of the Academy to have any oversized impact on the Oscar ballots.

Winner Outstanding Informational Commenter: Mel S

When Tremblay quipped he was going up against Batman, the cameras should’ve cut to Bale. (I assume that was a scripted remark for the kid, so they could’ve been prepared for it.)

I’m going to assume that if they courted 150K+ members of SAG-AFTRA with 3 free months of Netflix and DVDs, they surely did the same for the Academy which is just 6K, though SAG-AFTRA does award in TV (where Netflix has a lot of nominees) while the Academy does not. Either way, SAG-AFTRA is more open to TV and new formats with a much larger and much more diverse membership. Many members of SAG-AFTRA are in TV, Radio and New Media so we don’t look down upon it at all!

Fun Fact: NPR is SAG-AFTRA so all your favorite NPR personalities are SAG Awards voters 🙂

Stats can be fun. But just because something has never happened, doesn’t mean it won’t EVER happen. Idris Elba tonight was proof: a SAG winner who wasn’t an Oscar nominee.

FWIW, as a SAG voter, Netflix courted us harder than anyone. They gave us all 3 free months of Netflix, plus mailed us screeners for Beasts of No Nation. I wasn’t surprised to see all the Netflix love. All my co-workers could not stop cooing about their free Netflix. It was smart too, 2 of my co-workers who didn’t have it previously have declared that they are gonna keep it when the 3 free months expire.

You know, many people love the stats, but the stats are always on short sample due to changing variables in the awards. Some preferential ballots, some not. Only so many years there have been more than 5 nominees. Not all years pref ballot in play. As for SAG, 2 years ago they merged with AFTRA and added 50,000 non-actors to their voter base.

There is just so much flux, trusting stats is hard, for me. All I hope for each year is that it would be competitive and surprising and it just isn’t usually. So much goes behind the scenes giving advantages and it’s mostly just about the money like an election it feels like to me.

If ”The Big Short” won SAG Ensemble, pundits would’ve written off ”Spotlight” for dead. Based on the PGA win, some folks even predicted Bale for Supporting. Could PGA be the outlier instead?

Wow. Crazy.

I like “Phoenician Formula” for your new handle

SAG+DGA is a combo we’ve not yet seen go up against a different PGA winner (so we don’t know how it’d be expected to do), and SAG+WGA (when the PGA winner loses at the WGA) is a known strong (and always underestimated) combination that can beat the PGA+DGA winner (see Crash and Shakespeare in Love!) Spotlight could end up with one of those combos, or even SAG+DGA+WGA and TBS losing WGA (but probably not), either of which could, potentially, make up for the ACE snub. It’s hard to say. Probably not, in the end, and it’s also quite unlikely it’ll end up with either… but ruling it out right now does seem premature.

JLaw was very very famous when she won her Oscar.

Agreed. I’m really sorry, my answer wasn’t for you. It was for Mel, but I think we sorted things out.

Has Silence premiered anywhere ?

Or maybe they really just did not think she is Best Actress worthy ? I mean outright hate is OTT but someone might not have preferred her to win.

I’d say 100% of the members of the actors branch is in SAG, BUT…..SAG is 150,000 people of which not all are even actors. I don’t know how much you could say it actually means. What it really means is just more buzz, more bandwagon fodder. Which is everything.

Oh, they do, I’m not denying that. Blanchett deserved it over Adams in 2014 but still has to be a bit annoying to have that many losses. Poor Peter O’Toole….

I’ve double-checked it, and the SPOTLIGHT SAG win tells us next to nothing about its overall chances on Oscar night. It could indicate a Best Picture win (although this still seems unlikely, given PGA), but it doesn’t necessarily presage Acting wins, nor does it suggest that the strong support from actors will translate into wins in other categories. The history:

Best Picture Winners that won SAG Ensemble (10)
Birdman, Argo, The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Crash, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Chicago, American Beauty, Shakespeare in Love

Best Picture Nominees that won SAG Ensemble (9) – Oscars won
Traffic – 4 (Director, Supp. Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing)
Apollo 13 – 2 (Film Editing, Sound)
Little Miss Sunshine – 2 (Original Screenplay, Supp. Actor)
The Help – 1 (Supp. Actress)
Inglourious Basterds – 1 (Supp. Actor)
The Full Monty – 1 (Original Musical/Comedy Score)
Gosford Park – 1 (Original Screenplay)
Sideways – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)
American Hustle – 0

Films not nominated for Best Picture that won SAG Ensemble (1)
The Birdcage – 0

I wonder if that’s why, as awards followers, we become so invested? We know it’s bullshit and rarely does the best person or the one we are rooting for win, so when they do it’s like heroine or something since we are always used to being let down! ahahah

I was watching it with someone who said this, heh

So much of showbiz and award giving is smoke and mirrors! It is the way to represent a film or its success by investing or singling out a player and making him or her the focal point for a campaign. If you’re young and attractive and you are building an impressive resume as Brie as, it makes her a very marketable and promotable and campainable (all made up words by me, right now!!!) commodity.I know its a cynical way to look at it, but its the way. Many great performances get overlooked if a co-star is more famous; does the publicity trail and has ‘an awards narrative’. Mr Stallone – thinking of you!

Yes, the question now is whether BAFTA will go for make up Revenant wins as well. I’m not so sure about this, I think the awards narrative has shifted since the Globes. I was surprised by how well The Big Short did with BAFTA, actually. They could pick it for BP and then go for hometown boy Ridley Scott to show up AMPAS.

Nope. They make it extremely likely, but of course they never ensure it. I’ve literally never said that.

I want that too.

I liked Room and it did hit me deeply, but it was the little boy. It was never her. I did not connect at all with her performance and I am a woman. So I don’t think she was BAD, I just did not think it was very good. Everything that that grabbed me and kept me thinking about Room was Jacob Tremblay. When she said tonight there would be no movie without him, she was damn sure right about that much. She should really just give her Oscar to him.

You are definitely a numbers freak! 🙂 Nothing wrong with that…

I liked Bale more, but Elba was also very good, of course, and is a deserving winner.

Thank you Mel; I had conveniently repressed that awful movie and her win that year against the great Emmanuelle Riva! There have been some stinkers and not so long ago either. I think Larson or Ronan or Blanchett (not that she has much hope this year) or the amazing Charlotte Rampling are all strong contenders.

“The Revenant/Inarritu win at the Globes looks more and more like a makeup for last year when they picked Boyhood.”

The smart pundits wrote it off as that immediately after, and they were, of course, right, as I’d suspected. (At least I’m pretty sure they were… can’t be 100% sure until The Revenant loses BP… which it will.)

Those were both pretty bad……and I’m sorry Jennifer Lawrence in SLP was a joke. She’s a great actress, but good lord, that movie and that performance never should have been near what is supposedly considered the highest award to American Cinema.

Room is one the few BP noms I haven’t seen yet so I can’t comment on Larson but the category itself is strong this year. People are complaining more about Best Actor, which makes for a nice change.

Reese Witherspoon ‘Walk the Line’, Sandra Bullock ‘The Blind Side’? Haven’t seen Room yet so not likening Brie Larson to anybody

Atonement *was* BP nominated, though.

But with SAG making history with Elba, anything can happen!

Did she just have the black armband in the wrong spot? 🙂 Maybe it slipped in and around her frock!

LOL at the black bra…..I have to admit I was kind of shocked too. I was laughing and then realized this is what she’s wearing to introduce In Memoriam and was just baffled. Not exactly the time to cosplay Madonna Blonde Amibition Tour 1990!

Yup. Definitely right on all counts.

Call me a numbers freak. I consider for example 1968 the parent year to 1988 or 1951 to 1971.

And we might still not know, even after that…

But the voting ended yesterday, and, looking at some of these wins… I don’t know… I don’t want to say it… but they look pretty up-to-date to me…

I hope so!!!!

🙂

I agree, The Danish Girl was a crap film. It doesn’t deserve any awards.

I think that’s the most likely outcome right now.

It’s still the clear favorite, but a lock it is not. Not based solely on the Spotlight ACE snub and the assumption that the PGA can never get it wrong while working under the preferential system, like the Oscars. It most certainly can. So the ACE thing is the only definite thing that’s left – industry-wise. I believe in the “principle of two weaknesses”, and not just in chess. One isn’t enough to be sure. It’s enough for an advantage, but not enough to be sure…

I just want Peter Docter and Adam McKay who won because they are both born in 1968. And going by twenty rule 88-20=68.

Probably… but there’s slightly more reason to get nervous now than there was before…

Alicia and Brie deserve their Oscar. Period.

Unless, of course, you’re joking. 🙂

Cool! That stat sounds about right. 🙂 And I’m definitely going to be a big fan of that win!…

You’re overreacting – it’s not that unless Spotlight wins DGA as well (or, maybe, unless The Big Short loses in its category at the WGA.)

I, honestly, kind of was, once Elba upset. I knew that wouldn’t be the only one I’d miss. 🙂 When I miss, I miss big…

My friend lost his mind over the Portman thing b/c he hated her performance and Black Swan from the get-go and so lost his mind when she was sudden Oscar lock. It’s just bewildering to me b/c in my mind and heart, all of these should be very competitive b/c film is so subjective. We should never have any clue. Everyone wants to pick a winner though…..so once the narrative starts to develop everyone just bandwagons consciously or otherwise I think. Though there is usually a surprise or two. I think if people shut out the PR and truly voted their favorites and what really touched them most though, each year would be exciting b/c people are so different.

All these awards should just make it mandatory that screeners for every nominee be provided to all voters. There should be no celebrity Q&A and parties and events for voters. If they wanted to be taken seriously and it was really about people voting what they really thought was best, not which studio or actor personally charmed outside of the film.

But can Bale?…

Ughhh… not the Anomalisa thing!… 🙁

Kate ain’t winning for Steve Jobs, Vikander has it in the bag.

I don’t think that I would start to dislike it because I only dislike performances that I disliked in the first place. I would be baffled by the hype if he had a good chance of winning just like I was when Portman won for Black Swan. It was a baffling win to me.

Yeap, me too, but I must say, that I’m very thankful for all your inputs the whole saison long. Hopefully you have the same impression. Learning by doing and the most important thing is – LISTENING – 🙂

I guess that’s why BP is nice this year…..since nothing is locked you can just take the time to keep giving them all a chance and listening to the conversation.

Would you start to dislike it if everyone started saying he was a lock on the Oscar and had started to rack up all the awards? When that happens you expect it to be something you thought was GREAT…..so when it happens to something you only thought was ok or fine or good you get confused, verklempt and shit-tay. Human nature.

🙂 I love ABBA!

They have the theatrical rights, but they are going to do a service deal for the theatrical release, similar to the CHI-RAQ deal…

PGA’s predictive power increased when it switched to the preferential ballot.

Likewise, it weakened SAG Ensemble’s predictive power.

I won’t mind either Spotlight or Big Short winning.

Did Amazon pay for theatrical rights? I thought they only paid for streaming rights? Either way, the raves reviews I’ve read about it being a masterpiece have me very excited.

I get that opinion but some on here are talking like she doesn’t know how to act or something.

Is #SAGsSoBlack trending? 😉

she is a good actress but I find room (second part) almost a shit and her acting in the film just not oscar worthy

Still risky… But that’s what the banks thought, too, so who knows?!… 🙂

This Larson hate is baffling because she is a good actor but some people just like to hate who is popular at the moment out of jealousy or to look cool.

They haven’t won an Oscar yet. Adams has about 20 years in the business. She’s in big movies and indies. Her time will eventually come just as Moore’s did last year.

they don’t deserve it

Indeed, and for Leo – his stoic look as they read his nomination; he may well have been preparing for another loss! (Meryl 16 times!!!!)

The tv side of the SAG awards looked like 2016 but the movie side looked like the past. Movie studios should be extremely embarrassed. I was thrilled to see so many beautiful poc and lgbtq attend the show.

Elba deserved his best supporting actor award. I didn’t expect the award for Luther, but it was a welcome surprise. Big wins for Davis and Latifah too. The cast of OITNB always shines. I was for Malek but Spacey is equally deserving. Tambor should have given Redmayne lessons on playing a trans person, because he nails it.

The biggest takeaway for me is how much actors have embraced cable and streaming services. As movie studios move more and more towards only reboots/sequels, blockbuster novels, super hero, and brand-based movies, tv/streaming services are where actors will have to look when they want to deliver great acting performances.

I have to wonder how it must feel for, say, Amy Adams, to be nominated five or six times and not winning and then seeing someone like Larson or Vikander get it on their first try. Not that they don’t deserve it and such but I remember the massive relief when Winslet and later Julianne Moore won, something to say about sticking in there so many times.

Please DGA give George Miller the damn award. It is the BEST DIRECTING ACHIEVEMENT of the year.

I’m going to short you on The Big Short winning.

BAFTAs might still play a part depending and maybe support for McAdams in Spotlight while Winslet still has some momentum but yeah, think overall, 2015 is going to be remembered as the year Alicia Vikander went from “who?” to Oscar-winning major star.

🙂 Fair enough. You were quite wrong about me, though. I have a very clear system for predicting BP, that doesn’t change with every turning of the tide at all. I’ve been lucky enough to get it right every time so far, for the few years I’ve been using it (5-6, maybe more, I don’t remember exactly). But I’ll be the first to admit I had it wrong, or that there’s no system, if this ever becomes clear. If, for instance, Spotlight wins this year, I’ll be happy and all (and genuinely so), but I’ll be upset, too, because this wouldn’t really work so well with my system. If it’s going to win, then I desperately need it to win the DGA first, or for The Big Short to lose both the DGA and the WGA, somehow. Otherwise, unless The Big Short wins, I’m screwed this year, and my system will need a bit of revising – if anything can be done at all to fix it. I’m in a tricky spot this year. I have to root for the movie I love, but, if it wins, it could screw up my plans quite a bit…

The Martian was a good movie and a blockbuster but that’s it, i didn’t see a best picture winner when i watched it. I agree with you about TBS though

no no, I’m probably the right person don’t worry. but really I didn’t want to be rude.

If that’s the case, The Martian should win. A lot more general public friendly.

And The Big Short was also in very very few people’s top 10 predix in November’s end. Now it is the frotrunner.

OK, mate… Guess I took your gist wrong and took some pent up shit out on you. Had to be said, though. And I do mean it. But I do apologize if I said it to the wrong person! 🙂

Same here, John Smith.

I think she wrote/rehearsed a heartfelt speech.* I don’t it came off that when she read it on the podium, but hey, it’s her first awards season and not everyone gets weepy.

I know but many still think they assure a particular outcome will happen

Yes, but those were critics darlings that DID win BP. Spotlight, according to most, isn’t. = my point.

Yes, that’s what the word “except” implied.

TGBH didn’t had the audience rooting for it the way Mad Max has, and remember this year they need to make the public happy to fix their image

Yes we did. She was saying how she felt unlovable growing up and how becoming an actor helped her in life. It was sincere and beautiful, nothing phony about it. 🙂

Agreed, i found it humble; coherent and assured. And different to the one she gave at GG’s. Hint Hint J.K Simmons and that repeated line about his above average children! Why weren’t Arquette and Simmons in attendance to give Supp prizes?

Well, Julie Christie lost. So, that’s not no one.
And SAG’s 7 loses against 15 wins is nearly 33%. losing rate.

I’d definitely expect it in Best Screenplay and possibly Best Supporting Actress/Actor as well, although Amazon as its distributor could pose an issue.

THE BIRDCAGE just won SAG ensemble… no individual awards.

No one ever won a SAG individual award and failed to get an Oscar nom until tonight (the slight exception being Winslet getting upgraded to Lead Actress for THE READER).

Of course, Spotlight winning DGA is pretty much unthinkable. But you never know… If it does win, somehow, it has a case for BP. Probably still not as strong as The Big Short’s, but definitely a lot better than right now.

Are you kidding? She gave such a vulnerably heartfelt speech. Completely relatable, I love it!

Yeah, she’s not good at it. Doesn’t seem to hurt her though. Everyone writing about Oscars has locked her as the winner for ages now and for whatever reason that’s all it takes.

you’re welcome

If Spotlight” wins I think it win BP. The fact that it wasn’t nominated for ACA means it’s very unlikely that it will win DGA. Film editing and Directing are very close and most best directed films tend to tend to be best edited too. Mad Max has confirmed that it is ahead of the TR to win DGA by winning drama ACE. TBS also won and is the closest challenger to Miller. I can see Miller winning DGA but I can definitely see TBS winning Oscar BD and BP.

All in all, these were pretty good. I only have rage about the Best Supporting Actress and Best Ensemble for TV Drama. If I’m only raging at two, that’s a pretty good night for me!

Nope – I was wrong here. I thought The Big Short would most likely win, and I said it numerous times. But I did think Spotlight was the favorite for SAG Ensemble before The Big Short won the PGA, based on the BFCA Ensemble win. And I did say before that it wouldn’t be so easy for the Big Short contingent either, once they moved in front in the race. And I can provide proof of all of these things I said that I was referring to in the above comment, if needed.

And please tell me in what world you actually think I would say “told y’all” if The Revenant won BP?… For example… Or if Straight Outta Compton had won tonight… Please get yourself some sense and stop being such a cry-baby!

I’ve been taking way too much shit from the haters on here, and been way too nice about it. That’s going to stop. If y’all want to get nasty, we’re getting nasty from now on. I’m not going to be everybody’s bitch anymore. If y’all actually think I’m an arrogant, evil douche, then that’s definitely what you’re getting from now on, whenever you imply, or outright say, that. Just so you can be the ones to say “told y’all” – how about that? And I don’t care if I get banned for it. I won’t miss a single one of you. I’ll miss the people that deserve it. They know who they are…

Now bugger off!…

Then again, it IS more hilarious than The Martian.

As famous as she is now or as famous as Saoirse when she won? By The time she won, Lawrence was already The star of the then highest grossing female lead movie of all time.

And while Joy is quite weak, her talent was to make the film not turn in to a total train wreck.

It will most assuredly win Adapted Screenplay.

Let me just go ahead and congratulate Alicia Vikander on her first Oscar. 😀

THE BIRTH OF A NATION just won the Jury prize, making it join films like PRECIOUS and WHIPLASH in its double win of the top Sundance prizes.

WEINER did the same in documentary.

Yeah, unlike that old hag Larson…
Please, Academy, give her an award before you light her withering corpse on fire and send it out to sea.

Agree

This reminds me of the year when Julie Christie was winning left and right and I was just screaming “Marion Cotillard should have won that” after each and every win. Keep you finger’s crossed, I know I am. Maybe a Bafta upset will give her the momentum.

The Departed. Mostly because hadn’t won an Oscar and was so overdue. It was also the easiest films to choose out of the nominees.

The BP race is so open that Mad Max still could take it…i mean if Miller wins DGA and with the diversity problem…Mad Max has POC actresses and the feminist angle, they giving it to this movie could shut up people for a while…

Whatever happens it will be always according to your prevision and whatever happens it will be a big “told y’all” from you to anybody. It is called the power of finding a stat that fits the result afterwards.

No one with Globe+SAG combo ever lost except Julie Christie, but Cotillard won a Globe also that year.
I’m not counting that Winslet upgrade… that was just a fluke.

The Revenant/Inarritu win at the Globes looks more and more like a makeup for last year when they picked Boyhood. BAFTA could do the same for the same reasons but I’m not sure.

This obviously most likely means nothing, but I’d just like to say: Boyhood didn’t win this award. The Social Network didn’t win this award. Brokeback Mountain didn’t win this award. The biggest critics’ darlings that have been shunned by the Oscars before didn’t win this award, at least not the ones in recent memory. Just sayin’… Big Short supporters – told y’all a while ago it wasn’t going to be that easy! 🙂 You might win it in the end. You probably will. But you’ll have to sweat at least a little bit for it… I told y’all that BFCA Ensemble award was going to count for something!… (Here we go! SAG with no ACE nomination vs. PGA and nothing else, and only 5 nominations, etc. – this is how we stand right now. Final stretch… Go Spotlight! We ain’t dead yet… still puttin’ up a bit of a fight… at least for a week, or so…)

(Again, and for the record: The Big Short is and will remain the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Picture, no matter what happens from now on, unless – and perhaps even if – Spotlight also wins the DGA. It will, however, never again, after tonight, be a true lock again, unless Spotlight loses the WGA. Because now there’s an at least half-legitimate alternative.)

Also, Bale didn’t win. No SAG wins for The Big Short… that’s not particularly encouraging either, stats-wise… But, again, probably means nothing. Probably just means The Big Short might be winning editing at the Oscars. 🙂

Room lol

As I said below, I think the subject of the film was a hurdle more than the fact that it was Netflix. Some voters really don’t like watching anything they think will be difficult or disturbing. That allowed Ruffalo/McAdams to get in on the Spotlight ticket.

Bale only has BAFTAs left

I wouldn’t call it particularly open…
Ruffalo, Rylance and Hardy strike me as unlikely winners.
As I see it, It’s really a question of Stallone or Bale (if TBS begins sweeping its nominations).

I thought Stallone had it on lock ? With Elba winning he is not threatened in any way

I picked Elba too. It’s a pity people will now say his win is only due to #oscarssowhite because I thought he was one of the top contenders in SA when the SAG noms were first announced.

Iñarritu winning BAFTA doesn’t mean a lot since he lost last year. DGA yes. If he wins, it will be something strong.

The last piece of the puzzle is DGA, and they may not clarify things.

Indeed. I’d say it’s a close race between “Spotlight” and “The Big Short.” for BP. We will see what DGA does.

I think TBS will win BAFTA.

Explainable it is. He was not the frontrunner and he was alone for the film. Remember Albert Brooks for Drive? But the snub was ridiculous.

I’m sick of the people who are sick of the Leo-snubbed narrative. … I imagine the first person who wants it to be over is Leo. He’s had to put up with over 20 years of enduring questions about it.

interesting fact about the greatest show on earth, jp

NOT A PRIEST, NOT A CARDINAL, OR A FREAKING POPE!

Still very good.

Not much really change. PGA is still so much important than SAG.

what are TBS chances of winning Oscar for BP ?

Anyhow, either The Big Short or Spotlight will be the BP winners with least wins since The Greatest Show On Earth If The Revenant and Mad Max sweep the techs and If either win Directing.

It wouldn’t be all that shocking if not only the DGA picks Miller, but also BAFTA picks Carol. They’re not averse to picking one of their own when they really love it, ala Atonement in 2007. Only other major award Atonement won was the Globe.

I hope Sasha is aready working on her new State Of The Race. I can’t wait to read her thoughts.

Going with the stats, I’d only be considering Spotlight for BP right now if it had won an Eddie, like “Crash” and “Shakespeare in Love”. Since it was not even nominated – unfairly, I must say – and as sure as I am that The Big Short will win Editing and Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, I’m still putting my money on TBS.

McBiopic

That’s 2 years in a row for Keaton, winning SAG Ensemble. … Anyone know what his next movie is? 😉

No RACE is going to win BP next year.

I picked Elba for supporting and thought I would tie for first in the contest. But I went with Big Short, so once more an also-ran. There will be suspense on Oscar night.

Is DGA soon?

DGA, PLEASE DON’T FUCK IT UP! It’s Miller and only Miller!

I swear if the DGA gives Miller the award, I will be so happy and confused but mostly happy and I’m kind of tipsy from drinking two beers and I’m re-thinking all the choices I’ve made tonight.

The point is, I’m confused.

BUT DO YOU KNOW WHAT HE HAD TO EAT?
DO YOU KNOW HOW COLD IT WAS?

now all I need now is Miller for the DGAs and this could be a fun Oscar night

Haters gonna hate.

Poor Cheryl Boone Isaacs.

Spotlight wins! Now Mad Max needs to take the DGA and all will be going as planned.

DONT JINX IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Also btw, despite working with both of them on The Revenant, Leonardo DiCaprio pronounced neither Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s name nor Domhnall Gleeson’s right. But what do u expect…

They can choose their own favorite without being the contrarian. And I’m pretty sure that’s Miller.

Exciting!! Spotloght is still in it. If I can’t have Revenant, I want Spotlight for BP

“The Martian” was my favorite “ensemble” of the year. “Hateful Eight,” “Mad Max,” “Magic Mike XXL” also noteworthy.

Lol Are all you trolls happy now. Spotlight won. God forbid a few black actors win some awards you think it’s a motherfucking takeover or its a statement. . it was quite sickening reading some of the comments here tonight. Btw spotlight totally deserved it. .the acting was spot on! I would of nominated the majority of the cast if I could

If Inarritu or Miller win DGA, then we will only know who’s goin to in after Editing Oscar moment.

The only films that got a push were Spotlight, The Revenant and Mad Max Fury Road. The Big Short is a weak frontrunner anything can happen.

Yeah, the AMPAS actors are the ones who voted in this year’s (and last’s) acting nominees.

Don’t dare get my hopes up!

Now I can definitely see DGA going for George Miller.

I agreed initially, but then I saw it a second time, and she really is magnificent in it. Short Term 12 might be a touch stronger, but this is no makeup award.

And so the plot thickens with Spotlight winning ensemble! It isn’t really a surprise BUT keeps things interesting…

This is a crazy outcome… All around.

Usually who wins the SAG wins the Oscar so….is the first lol

Regina is up there! (nice way to close the evening, wide open race)

Oh please. The movie didn’t do anything for the victims. Cripes.

Well, that makes things a bit more interesting.

We have to say goodbye to memes.

I really wasn’t expecting that.

I’m so over the Leo snubbed the Oscar story. There’s like maybe ONE year he could be argued as the best of the nominees. Just give him the Oscar so we can shut up about the bison livers and the snow and being paid tens of millions of dollars to pretend to sleep in a dead animal

Brie Larson is my #2, and that’s only because I can’t decide if she or Cate Blanchett is my #1.

Ruffalo is so likable

Brie deserves all the acting awards she has received for her convincing performance in “Room”. However, it was her emotionally layered and transfixing performance in 2013’s “Short Term 12” that I find more impressive and “un-showy” than “Room”.

Yay! Deserved!

I can’t wait until Leo gets the Oscar so his fans can shut up about it and move on.

Agreed.

You’re the first one to bring up quotas…

Seriously. The salt on this site is giving me hypertension.

Should have won for ANYTHING BUT THIS

imagine, a JLaw stan saying this…

I would like to thank the Native Americans, protect the environment, something…

Should have won for TITANIC

Am I crazy for thinking Joan Allen’s subdued mother came off more believable then the histrionic Larson?

Oh finally let’s get it over with will you

Brie deserves this for Short Term 12 when she was completely overlooked.

She’s winning for a very simple weak performance that any other actress could have done.

Rooney and Kate were much better in another planet I guess. Alicia’s performance in TDG was mind-blowing. She was superb in Ex-Machina as well so she was the best supporting actress last year for two great performances and you should deal with it. 🙂

Stallone will win the Don Ameche type of Oscar Award.

On this, you do. But I sure don’t agree with a lot of the other shit you’ve been posting recently. A bit sad to see you support greater equality for Asian actors and yet demean the support being offered for the broader drive for equality.

True! Saoirse’s been in many Hollywood and British films since her first Oscar nomination for “Atonement”. I’m no sure Brie will become as popular as Saoirse after her “predicted” Oscar win.

They’re bitter over Ronan losing.

Larson is the Jennifer Lawrence of this year.

Johnny Depp for Actor! Native Americans need representation tonight!

I presume if Rylance can’t win without Stallone in the race, he can’t win with Stallone there

Clairvoyant!

That’s completely right. Haters gonna hate. She was superb in TDG.

Forgive them Saoirse. They can’t appreciate true talent.

What was so great about Brie Larson in Room? I didn’t see no transformative performance.

I am really rooting for it. I love the film. Why can’t I root for Straight Out of Compton. It might be political, but it is nice to see SOC wins over other nominees. It is a solid film.

She is so fake.

She always worried she was unloveable? Damn.

Best Campaign wins. Ugh.

Ugh i missed it

Larson is on her way to that Oscar win as scheduled.

Redmayne… the diversity for bad actors.

Cue Guest2015 coming here saying “SAG FUCKED UP!!!”

They give them individual awards after.

I saw Season 1 –liked it– quit 3rd episode of season 2

My grandma… and she’s dead.

They really wanted to give Maggie Smith a SAG.

My parents.

so… if there’s only one award, how they do to share it?

Downton Abby’s actors are all UK actors, they were eligible? Just curious, Anyone?

Will you shutup? Good god you are a fucking troll and a half.

The best thing is you know she didn’t even do the tiniest bit of prep. She just walked into this role. The role had to prepare for Ellen Barkin.

Lowwwwwwwwbrowwwwww

Kevin Spacey picks up colg boys at bars mate. There are like tons of these stories. He is definitely not straight.

Ellen Barkin handing out guns to lots of shirtless boys. What’s not to like?

im wondering if one day we’ll see a SAG nomination for Tommy Wiseau.

Yes, good bets!

but ppl wont think that way…..oscar voting is in mid feb…..this WILL effect…

I personally love SOC, but SAG’s winners so far just proved that it may not have anything to do with acting, tonight it is more of a political statement tonight which should not have anything to do with SAG.

Rylance is the exact opposite of arrogance.

he didnot even attend…i think sly is a lock due to raylance’s arrogance..this will effect his oscar chances

Larson, Leo and The Big Short will win.

The best thing about it, though, is that you know he utterly couldn’t give the tiniest little shit.

Yeah, such a great night for talented people of all race gender and creed getting the recognition they deserve.

I know, right? What even is this? It gets a pass for me cos Ellen Barkin gets a pass at everything cos duh she’s Ellen Barkin.

So diverse. I thought Steven Yuen is excellent in Walking Dead. As an Asian, I am outraged. Where’s the diversity? I don’t see one single Asian actor nominated.

Henny?

Is this the remake of the Australian film Animal Kingdom?

Oh henny look it up, he knooooooowwwwwwws

That would be news to Jeffrey Tambor and Alicia Vikander.

I’m not seeing myself represented at this year’s SAG Awards.

I do that every Thursday night and I have yet to win an Oscar 🙁

yeah, thats right!

Everything the world does is not for white people.

Hey, now. 😉

I remeber Kevin Spacey jerking off in the bath. He won an Oscar for that.

Drop dead

Spacey finally.

Poor Kevin Spacey thinks he’s in an elevator.

Spacey was great. But i prefered Bob or Rami…

Claire Danes should have won.

Spacey???

I predicted SOC in the contest but that’s because it was my actual choice.

SAG TV is pathetic.

Steven Yuen in Walking Dead should have been nominated. Can I say there is no diversity?

Rami, should’ve been black this year.

It’s a showdown between SOC and Beasts.

Leo’s reaction shot will be priceless as well.

Considering her acting in it is off the charts it makes total sense.

That will be hilarious… Then the stats will have to account for the year the SAG gave all their awards based on skin color/LGBT roles.

This is great. There’s hardly even been any white presenters.

No I saw him first (in some pic with Richard Jenkins – Oscar nominated)

8 out of 8 went to minorities or films about them (incl Tambor and Vikander). Would be funny to see Redmayne win over DiCaprio 🙂

What a surprise. Another black human won!

As long as i don’t have to tell gags or dance or hit on everybody. I’m more comfy as party poooper! With 3 o’s! I wouldn’t be anywhere else right now! Glued to this thread! 🙂

Elba’s time was coming and I thought this is the year he was going to win an Oscar but they denied when he was nominated almost everywhere. It’s not just Academy who have failed, the critics failed to nominate him too. They had one spot more than the Oscars yet they thought six actors had better performance than Elba. As I said before, Elba is more respected by his peers than critics and the Academy might have rejected because he is more know for his TV work than films.

So… Beasts/SOC ensembles, Rami Malek and Viola Davis still need to collect rewards, right? Oh, strike Viola, she’s doing that now.

We have so much in common!

*Twirls hair, looks down at feet, realizes hair isn’t long enough to twirl, awkwardly walks away*

Hardly. They just gave their first ever film award to a performer without an Oscar nomination.

I hope they give Soirse Ronan the Sag Award for Best Actress

I hate people.

With you 100%

Comment sections tend to get filled with racist comments. Have you ever read a YouTube comment section? You could literally search “Adorable cat meows at bird” and someone in the comment section will say “I don’t really like black people.”

The point is I hate everything.

Yeah. Put Game of Thrones to compete as Comedy also. Big Bang is obviously more deserving than OITNB. For the simple reason that it is a Comedy. Like Veep, Modern Family…

ok my wording seem to have offended people..i will be more mindful

All the wins are deserving but the ones from Orange Is the New Black.

oh gd, I so wanted to call him a cunt right down to his cunty bone marrow but I thought that might make me a hypocrite (even though it’d be totally justified) since I don’t like calling people names. So I held back. But yeh, what a cunt!

😀

So, just to be clear: HFPA giving “Steve Jobs” Supporting Actress and Screenplay was HFPA being unpredictable and now SAG going for Elba is SAG wanting to make a political statement?

WE GOTTA NAIL THESE SCUMBAGS!!

I’m actually a Ruffalo fan, but man, between SPOTLIGHT and INFINITELY POLAR BEAR he really ratcheted up the histrionics this year.

Maybe just maybe Elba is really an amazing actor and was rightfully victorious.

well, it’s not very hard to understand. when racism is the numer one subject in a movie award race, it’s normal everyone’s talking about it, instead of merit.

Are we having fun kids? It’s not boring that’s for sure. I’m following it here on this thread, and it is fascinating reading reactions. Some of the more bizarre reactions to superb performers getting their justified wins is why there is a controversy in the first place. Rigidity and Blind Spots in thinking. Award shows are just a microcosm of the issue. Youtube has the clips of the winners; that’s how i am watching the speeches; albeit delayed!!!!!! Party on people!

Finally, the truth comes out

Okay, hands up. You caught me.

Ah, yes go right to being douchey. I misspoke. You made a general statement, not about the SAG. I’m sorry. I’ll try to use my tiny brain to read better next time!

WHY ARE YOU ALL* BEING SUCH RACISTS? See below for evidence.

*Not all of you rly, just all you racists. You know who you are, mostly. The rest of us just know who you are completely.

I’ve been thinking SOC all night…

What if Beasts or SOC wins Best Ensemble now? Can you imagine?

John Goodman should have had an Oscar for Barton Fink (over that Jack Palance bullshit) and a nomination for The Big Lebowski.

The industry has some problem with him and Stanley Tucci.

I”ve never bought the anti-Netflix theory. If actors were so scared, why did they nominate ”Beasts” & Elba?

If there is one guy from TRUMBO who deserved to be in some sort of conversation, that was John Goodman.

Vikander best win so far. Elba is deserving too, even if probably they gave it to him for the wrong reasons.

Uzo is great. Elba is good. But, I feel it can sounds political. And I don´t like this. Great actors are great actors. It´s not about race or color.

Why so black SAG? This is bad look…

well, Idris Elba deserved that one. but it may also be for that reason. time will tell.

It is a good film though.

All the same, beloved British actor Mark Rylance is up for the joint most-nominated film at the BAFTAs, so…

This SAG awards reminds me of that movie WHITE MAN’S BURDEN.

It is pretty obvious that SAG wanted to avoid being accused of lack of diversity. Compton has a good chance now. Don’t get me wrong, they are good actors, but you gotta admit it appears to be very political tonight.

Elba is deserving. He’s been nominated FOUR times for ”Luther” and won once at the Globes. He’s been up 3 times for the Emmy. This is Elba’s 1st SAG nom for ”Luther,” so SAG is only catching up.

him being a blacky helped him to win..he need to thank his blackness

some smart-alack on twitter:
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/693613389122265088

nope its just to create wave that blacks are included

the T in LGBT stands for Transgender

Elba deserves. But he would’t have won without the controversy.

So Supporting Actor is up in the air. Probably still down to Rylance and Stallone, but with “The Big Short” as the current front runner for Best Picture Bale is still a viable threat. Of course, if “Spotlight” gets SAG, WGA, and DGA who knows. And if “The Revenant” lands DGA…

Yeah, still up in the air.

deja vu…

So Wolf Hall has both Mark Rylance AND Damien Lewis? I need to check it out!

IDRIS AGAIN!!!

so they can leave them alone for two years or so…

I am calling it. Straight Outta Compton will probably win ensemble. African American actors just keep winning left and right. A bit political tonight.

-_-

SAG, If you are so diverse, where’s Empire?

This I don’t understand: They did not nominate Fargo season 2 (particularly Dunst who was mind-blowing) in miniseries because they considered it a drama series because of its title, and yet they nominated Idris Elba in the miniseries category for Luther (or is Luther season 4 consider a TV movie?)……

I finally have an excuse to say “YAS QUEEN!”

The gay in me needed to let that out. We start going into acute renal failure if we don’t say that at least once a day.

I never undesrtood how it got nominated in the first place.. I thought Paul Giamatti was bad bordering awful and most of the rest of the cast was barely okay. Nothing special.

I’m so used to getting my riskier choices wrong, but hooray for Idris Elba! I had been quoted by GoldDerby.com several days ago: ”Idris Elba is an amazing actor who got nominated by SAG, Globes, Indie Spirits and BAFTA and would be a worthy winner in any year. But if his fellow actors really want to make a statement about OscarsSoWhite, they could give him the SAG Award for Supporting.” …. So how many stats did that screw up? 😉

Wow my stream really is far behind, isn’t it?

anyone have a streaming link that actually work. the time4tv link keeps freezing and the stream2watch link doesnt work at all. preferably something that can be watched on an Ipad. Trying to watch from New Zealand and my computer is having none of it.

The only real significance is if TBS wins ensemble because then it’s almost game over. It would only make a slight difference to the race if “Spotlight” won it.

and go to other talk show and apologize again.

He should at least pick up his Razzie in person this year.

SO pleased Vikander won for The Danish Girl. It’s a best ACTRESS performance but alas glad she’s getting the gong regardless.