The Big Short, Inside Out and Amy win 27th Producers Guild Awards

It is a possibility. The Academy does like to create history and build up stats.
When watching The Revenant I could see how people may intuitively sway towards it for the win. I didn’t get that intense feeling though I did think it would be up for many nominations and it ticks a lot of boxes for a best picture winner. My intuitive feeling darting towards The Big Short felt more instinctual (though I realize I do have a choice when it comes to this sort of thing). After all the years (17 of them) intently following the awards season my gut went BING! The only other film I got the BING with was Room. You know, I wouldn’t be surprised if Room came from nowhere and won BP, BD, BA and BAS. I’d only be pissed I didn’t predict it when I’ve thought about it happening…
I’ll admit I follow the stats through AD and these blogs. I find them interesting but I don’t always go along with them. I watched The Big Short again yesterday and it only confirmed my initial intuition. THE BIG SHORT FOR THE WIN 🙂

Definitely movies over food!… 🙂

Interesting …

Oh, “the feeling.” I have to say that’s what I felt during Spotlight, though! But yeah I understand – still have to watch Big Short. I didn’t get the “this is going to win” feeling while watching Revenant, but as time’s gone by that part of my thinking has changed somewhat, and I would consider it an extremely noble winner. A part of me wonders whether the win for Birdman last year is AS big a crutch for Revenant as people are saying it is … a part of me feels that the members of the Academy, lovers of prestige they are (more so, typically, than lovers of “spreading the wealth”, which isn’t the same as their tradition of “giving overdue actors their due”), I wonder if the idea of anointing the first ever back-to-back Best Pic/Director double winner – and a Mexican director at that – will be too tough to resist for some voters. It’d be something memorable to say – 2016 was the year Inarritu became the first back to back winner, it was incredible! – rather than, “Remember when King’s Speech won” – no where near the same gravitas.

Haha I have to say that’s very likely … although I had a far more emotional reaction to Spotlight while watching it, Revenant is undeniably gorgeous and powerful. Can’t wait to see it again. Considering watching Spotlight a third time in theatres as well, although my student’s budget is crying as I type that. Eh, movies over food.

Yes while i dont believe the revenant is a great film it certainly easier to follow…but i feel it goes to the other extreme to from what i hear (hope to see) The Big Short- i just worry for all it wonderful cinematography and all natural visuals..there literally- not enough meat on the bones of the scr5ipt to carry it through..but at least there a real vision not just people talking bout the type of things we know to the death are going on today in the world arounfd us ala the big short themes. No it should be the Martian it crazy i know…everyfilm we think should win does not win pffft it got to change as does oscars race attitude to minority groups

True, but one gets “affected” by The Revenant upon viewing.. lol

Fair point. I see the connection in the sense that they’re both great technical achievements. I just think the issue with Gravity was that it didn’t play as well the second time/at home because the grandeur of the big screen and the 3D was lost. Fury Road is a different animal in my opinion, and I think the consensus is that its stature will grow with time, while Gravity’s may fade a bit. The reliance on practical effects really helps. I suppose time will tell.

That e-mail he sends is a bit of an “I told you so.” The “your profits totalling $489 million have been deposited into your account. You’re welcome.” one, not the much nicer one at the end.

Gravity won best director along with a slew of other Oscars. It’s actually a much better film. Did you not pay attention in 2013?

He’s likely to win Adapted Screenplay anyway, so he’ll be an Oscar winner nonetheless.

Yes, but she always said Birdman was the smart choice and the one we, the users, should bet on, after it won the Triple Crown. That’s what I consider to be her real predictions, not the ones for which she lets her political/movie lover side take over a little bit.

It’s still theoretically possible but, like Robert says, intuitively, it seems over. But our intuition could be deceiving us, who knows?!

Wow – I didn’t even read this before… (Busy day.) Cool! I’ve used that method myself, for the other categories (using pundits’ predictions, based on past percentages in certain categories – combined with my own opinions, of course), where I’m less certain of the stats. Never for BP, because I’ve never felt I needed to. It gives pretty good results, though, of course, not perfect. Nothing gives perfect results. Anyway, I hope we do well this season, going forward, and help you win some bets! 🙂

Oh, you edited it and added the second part later – that’s why I hadn’t read it. 🙂

If the momentum for ”The Big Short” was ”insane,” why didn’t it win Best Comedy at the Globes? It even had the advantage of the debate of whether ”The Martian” was a comedy. … Last night’s PGA win was a surprise to many. Let’s see if it sweeps DGA & SAG …

Yeah, right… Your “readings”, you trashy gypsy psychic. You screwed big time with your foreseen nominations. 99%… Stallone and Larson are winning their categories.
You’re a joke.

“The winner was going to have the word ‘the'”… Wow, what mighty psychic powers!

Why are critics lunatics? They don’t work in the film industry. Why should they have criteria for anything other than their own metrics of excellence?

I agree. Seems inevitable he’ll win barring some shocker.

why? Picking guild winners is not what they do. They gave TBS 4 stars and Spotlight 4-1/2.. Spotlight won some critics awards and TBS, it seems, will win some industry awards, but one set of awards does not make the other set invalid. There are many, many good film makers that would love to be part of a film as honored as Spotlight, Boyhood or The Social Network.

🙂 Of course. Every chance I get.

Oh God, so much great films to choose from, and they chose the weakest one. McKay winning Best Director is a nightmare. This awards season has turned into trash.

The keys words here are CLUE and DEDUCE ….Sherlock Holmes indeed !

Goldderby has been crashing for the past 10 hours. I think it’s time for the LA Times to run it again, its horribly out of date with it’s software (and experts).

With that being said, I think we can all agree the Oscar race is pretty set. As Beverly D’Angelo says to Chevy Chase in National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation: “Clark, it’s over.”

I also want to point out that Mad Max has been getting the worst post-screening reviews since Gravity. Most moviegoers hate it. They don’t understand the hype for this so-called masterpiece, and frankly- neither did I. George Miller got in because it was a pity vote. He should have been dumped for the far superior Ridley Scott, who at least told a story with The Martian. All Mad Max did was tell a car chase story with Charlize Theron looking very drugged up with Tom Hardy. And some random black chick. There was no substantial substance to this bore of a movie. And how can you be a boring action movie? It’s losing all 10 of it’s nominations, sorry. It’s this year’s American Hustle.

The following films will win the Oscars on February 28, according to my new updated readings. And I told people tonight that the winner was going to have the word ‘The’ in the title, and I was right.

Sylvester Stallone won’t win for Creed. The OscarsSoWhite argument has angered a lot of voters who feel very insulted the likes of actors they have nominated have lashed out at them, and for that reason alone they won’t be checking off ballots for a man whose played the same role for 30 years. Plus there’s still bitterness that Rocky won Best Picture over far superior competition in 1976: Network, All the President’s Men and Taxi Driver.

Carol will get it’s comeuppance because as I’ve been saying for months now, Cate Blanchett is winning Best Actress. Voters are not going to give their Leading Trophy to a woman nobody knows and nobody likes. Brie Larson is about as interesting as last season’s Amazing Race. Do you remember it? Neither do voters, and Larson is so annoying with her speeches. She’s not a movie star. She’s a vanilla flavor of the month who will be long forgotten once next season rolls out. She has no real future, unlike her competitors. All she does in Room is look like Jodie Foster’s sister and display a bad case of bulimia on screen. There’s a big anger that Carol failed a best picture nomination and unlike Rooney Mara who doesn’t do a thing to deserve her acting nod, Blanchett delivers. She will represent Carol and the shame that voters chose to pick Room over Haynes masterpiece. It will be her third win and she will be the biggest upset of the night.

To make up for OscarsSoWhite, voters are going to pick Straight Outta Compton for Best Original Screenplay over the bland Spotlight. The fact that the white screenwriters knew how to write for an all black cast is impressive enough, and mainstream audiences saw Compton in theaters- not on a screener they downloaded like McCarthy’s snoozefest.

OSCAR WINNER FORECASTS (99% certain to be right)

Best Picture: The Big Short
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Director: Adam McKay
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Original Screenplay: Straight Outta Compton
Cinematography: The Revenant
Art Direction: The Danish Girl
Costumes: Carol
Original Score: Hateful Eight
Song: Spectre
Film Editing: The Big Short
Visual Effects: Ex Machina
Sound: The Revenant
Sound Editing: The Revenant
Makeup: The Revenant
Foreign Film: Son of Saul (like Better Call Saul)
Animated Feature: Inside Out

Cool! Never thought to ask. I don’t really think about people’s races at all – and not just because we’re online. I guess that’s why I’m part of the problem. 😀 I’d be completely unaware of these things, most of the time, unless people like Sasha were there to remind me. Which is why what she does is so important! Even I might have noticed the lack of non-white actors in this year’s lineup on my own, though. 🙁 The snubs were pretty ridiculous.

Anyway, I’m Romanian caucasian. 🙂 We don’t really have a huge racism problem here in Romania, except for gypsies, maybe. But even they’re pretty well integrated by now, I don’t think it’s as much of a problem anymore. That’s part of why it’s so foreign to me, this whole issue…

Bale was the best thing about The Big Short. The only downside is you never really get closure from his character. All this big bets he makes at the beginning of the movie, all those people who doubted him; and then he never gets to say “I told you so”. He never gets to wave his phat paycheck in their faces. That was a scene that should have been filmed.

Oh so you still trust the pundits… Ok.

Sasha goes with the stats when it supports her horse in the race. She picked Boyhood against the stats throughout the guilds last year

Oh, of course – I agree. 🙂 I might not get into that whole debate most of the time (I don’t like political discussions of any kind, and I don’t think there’s much I can bring to them anyway), but I am on the same side as you here, for sure, with my limited knowledge on the subject.

I lived in the US for over 25 years : I make a living betting on US elections …I live here in the UK now

USA

For McKay NOT to win DGA and Oscar, there should be some serious backlash against him. Something like “The director of Anchorman can’t be an Oscar winner” or something along those lines…

Are you in the UK

So you think that Mckay will win BD?

Best Picture-ology!… 🙂

It’s a possibility like all the others, but the momentum for The Big Short is insane. It was probably the hardest movie for voters to “digest” and yet it reached global consensus. I don’t see anything or anyone keeping The Big Short and McKay from those awards.

I agree so much with you. I want Rylance to win but if not, i would also be extremely satisfied with a second Oscar for Bale. But please, no Stallone!

They could still go for Scott.

Yeah, but you know what kind of relationship the Academy has with Scorsese… (BP wins-wise.)

At this point, it’s likely. I see it taking Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Editing is down to how strong Mad Max is in the techs (to me the greatest editing work of the last 20 years) and how willing AMPAS are to give Bale another Oscar so soon.

BAFTA don’t give a fuck about make-up awards. Unless they feel rewarding Inarritu would make them look cool, they’ll go for McKay 100%.

Wow! I’m blushing… 🙂 I’d rather not comment on that one… Too much praise is never a good thing. 😀 I make my fair share of mistakes, I’ll say that… In life and in the Oscar predicting game. (Not so much for BP, but that’s probably mostly because the stats are so reliable there, and I was just lucky enough to figure that out early on.)

There’s a slight chance BAFTA will go for Haynes or Inarritu but I’m definitely not counting on it.

It’s safe to say The Big Short is unstoppable pretty much everywhere.

Agree with all of that.

Not THAT confident… But probably over 55%.
The Revenant probably won’t win much on Oscar night, that seems pretty clear now.

I agree with you …they will not give it to Innarito again …if they do not want to give it to Spotlight then McKay is the only real choice left

Last film to win Best Picture w/o BAFTA Best Director was Million $ Baby.

It could very well be next year. Scorsese’s Silence is released this year…

First of all, my congratulations to Sasha and all TBS supporters. My second favorite only after Mad Max but i’m definitely going to root for it to win BP (which is almost a secure thing at this point). Now, give me a TBS/Miller split and this year would be gold 😉

You have good judgement and a sharp mind ticking over like a well oiled machine ..I don’t know too much about movies but I quickly recognise the folks who do

That’s correct! The bookies are running a book, and I’ll think you know what I’m talking about!
“Money always talks” – but we still have to wait and see the outcomes from DGA, BAFTA and SAG.
That said, we’ll probably see some big betting odds changes till then. Cheers!

At this point it’s very likely.

can TBS win BAFTA ?

Is anyone here think that any other film than The Big Short could win BP now? Bookies seems to give them (Spotlight) almost the same chances. But at the same time they didn’t give any to TBS before the PGA announcement, so… Anyway, this season and the last one with Birdman and Boyhood looks very much alike.

Yeah, but they’re wrong… And I think it’ll change after today, anyway.

Can TBS win BAFTA ?…can Spotlight win without a directing nom

With no Directing nom in BAFTA is it likely that Spotlight can win BP ?

Refresher:

1990: Miss Daisy earns 9 nominations –> Hurt Locker earns 9 too
1994: Schindler’s List about oppression–> 2014: 12YAS about oppression
1992: The Artist wins 5 –> Silence of the Lambs wins 5
1994: Schindler’s List wins 7 –> Gravity wins 7
1996: Braveheart (Mel Gibson vehicle) reaps 10 nominations –> Mad Max (used to be Mel Gibson vehicle) earns 10
1996: Braveheart (Paramount film) wins 5 –> Big Short wins 5?

Yeah, I wouldn’t be particularly surprised if it swept either. 🙂 It’d be a bit much, but it seems quite plausible right now. But, most likely, 3-4 Oscars are what it’s going to get.

What’s the 20 year requirement?

SAG’s and Bafta Supportings will probably go to Marc Rylance.
No big changes at all up to finish!

It’s only sad if I think it’s sad too. 🙂 I actually care about these things. More than about other things you might value a lot more… So, yeah, for me, it’s a pretty big deal. And I’m in no way ashamed of it.

If underlying Big Short support helps him, it could be different.

Interesting – didn’t know it was that strong. But, yeah, it’s all moot if The Big Short gets the Triple Crown… 🙂 That’s way more important.

If he wins BAFTA and SAG, maybe more so. Too early to tell, but he’s a sleeper threat.

Fun fact: Only three other films have won Best Picture from only five nominations since ’50s. Greatest Show on Earth, Annie Hall, and The Departed, The Departed, one should note, did at least hit all the right guild notes to score a surprise win (like potentially Big Short could).

Not to mention that Big Short has a BAFTA Best Director nod and Spotlight does not. Coincidence? Nope.

I don’t think Mara is out. Winslet definitely has a shot. Vikander also does. Very unclear. (Like I said, I’m not as up to date on these other categories as I am for BP – I have to actually check to see to make sure who’s been nominated where sometimes… I just don’t get into it that much until close to the ceremony, when I have to do my predictions in all categories, for various contests.)

I agree 🙂 – but I’d still rather have some precursor wins to back it up as well.

We still need to have him win something major against them… but, yeah, I’d probably bet on him, if I was forced. I won’t, though, yet, because I’m not. 🙂

revenant is no way memorable..its at most good for fast forward scenes and shock values…..mad max is genre picture…martian is too forgettable…if you are saying that the big short is forgettable then that means you dont know about housing crash..or ur a fcking immigrant..or foreigner..it effected anyone who isnt a loser or freeloader..so its timely due to elections and wall street thinks it can get away with anything…so i will be glad to see big short wins….it captures a time capsule in american history…if ur illiterate and want transformers to win oscars then man i would hate to be you

I was thinking about THE frontrunner only, so just the no.1 favorite each year after the PGA. That one always seems to win SAG as well, when it has a strong ensemble. And, since Spotlight isn’t the no.1 favorite anymore…

really ? miller already has one……innaritu << miller as both were difficult productions and miller handled well and made a great movie….so out of innaritu and miller its miller all the way given that guilds didn't like revenant….between miller and mckay its tough..if he was first time director they would have given mckay but since he made those raunchy comedies its difficult for him to get..as its like anchorman 3 directed by oscar winner adam mckay..which will sound ridiculous…

Like I said, I don’t THINK it’ll be a split, but I don’t think it’ll DEFINITELY NOT be a split either.

LOL.

I still see a split possibly happening. It’s the less likely outcome now, but it’s still in the cards. It’s happened too many times in the critics’ awards for us to ignore the possibility. Even if it’s not always been the same split (though Miller has won most of the time when it has been a split.)

A year will come again in which the critics’ darling coincides with the Academy’s darling. It’s inevitable. We’re not even three years removed from the last one…

The Big Short is also pretty heavy-handed with it’s “message”, I’ll give you that, but I would still argue it’s a better crafted film than Crash. The Big Short is also more transparent in it’s patronizing – it literally cuts away to Anthony Bourdain and Selena Gomez to make that point.

Probably. Though he might win DGA but lose the Oscar… I don’t know. 🙂 I could see both.

Ohhhhhh… not good. Least favorite nominee won? REAL shame. 🙁

It seems Spotlight is dead, and the Revenant is on life support.

What is really really dead is the critics awards as predictors. After Social Network, Boyhood and Spotlight, should we bother paying any attention to them any more?

I know, but American Hustle is, like, the only real exception I can think of… The Artist didn’t have a strong ensemble, The Hurt Locker didn’t, really… so they lost. But The Big Short does. Unquestionably.

Which is fine, and an alternate form of ranking. But it’s not the standard.

Typical ranking procedure is that you skip spots if there are x number of objects that tie. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranking#Standard_competition_ranking_.28.221224.22_ranking.29

Lincoln led with 12 nominations, Life of Pi 11, Les Mis and Silver Linings Playbook tied for 3rd overall with 8. So Argo is 5th.

Ehh, I’m not finding that to be a very good analogy. Hazanavicius perfectly captured the feeling of a silent film and was rewarded for it (gimmick or not). McKay didn’t do much of anything, especially when compared to Miller, Inarritu, and Scott. But yeah, just opinions, though I just don’t see how they’d be able to do something like giving McKay the award.

Argo

Even if his film was the most liked, Hooper beat FOUR BETTER DIRECTORIAL EFFORTS. Unacceptable…

That was a gimmick and nothing more, in my opinion… I think The Artist will be remembered as a pretty average winner, at best, and Hazanavicius as a very undeserving one. Who knows?! But who knows how McKay will be remembered as well?! See, if we go into opinions as arguments for what will win, then we can’t really rule out anything, because our opinions are worth no more than anyone else’s…

main reason is critics are journalists…

Yup. That, the BAFTA snubs… I was hoping they were anomalies and, by the end, The Big Short would have bigger problems to overcome (namely, not winning PGA or DGA, possibly not even SAG), that’s why I thought Spotlight might surge ahead. It would have, in that scenario. But that’s clearly not the case.

3-way race between Bale, Rylance and Stallone. I hope you get your Stallone win, but there are troubling stats there!… Still, he can win. Definitely.

For the record, Fury Road is still my favorite film of the year.

I agree that it will have a target on it now, the frontrunner always does but it’s simultaneously building steam. Being late to the party helps it. And I can see it getting lots of #2s and #3s, which is what you really need to win.

The guilds are pretty much all voting at the same time now. The compressed calendar doesn’t really allow for a backlash anymore (with the exception of Brokeback Mountain – and the Big Short has none of Brokeback’s vulnerabilities).

Who did a really good job recreating a silent film, so I didn’t see any problem with him taking it that year, though Scorsese and Allen were both deserving as well.

“Both Million Dollar Baby” and “Crash” were written by the same guy, Paul Haggis, who also directed “Crash” and won BP and screenplay for it too. You’re both right and both are terrible films.

I haven’t seen Million Dollar Baby in years, don’t remember most of it, but I also can’t think of another film that ends with the protagonist dying by way of euthanasia committed by her mentor, which seems about as far from a cliched ending as you can get.

I would take Bale in that movie, but oddly, I’ve heard people pretty divisively split over whether Carrell/Bale was better in that movie.

I’d have to disagree. I’d take Crash over the cliche-filled soap opera that is Million Dollar Baby any day. But I do agree that the Academy doesn’t take longevity into consideration at all, as we’ve clearly seen with some winners.

The Big Short is the large brick that has “WALL STREET IZ BAD” scrawled on it. The markets are pretty cyclical and cynical (and psychological unstable) about how they do this. Check out the conspiracy theorists at Zero Hedge. We had a tech bubble in 1999/2001 and are arguably experiencing a commodities bubble right now. Don’t forget Enron/MCI Worldcom shenanigans (though I guess some went to jail that time), Japan in the 1989/1990 went through a similar housing bubble, and China is trying to deflate theirs as we speak.

Hey, Million Dollar baby is not worse than Crash! Regarding longevity, I don’t think whether something will “age well” enters into their thinking at all. It should but I just don’t think it does.

I got it. 🙂

Yup. PGA+SAG is even clearer as a precursor.

Well done & Congrats – what do think about Supporting Actor?

I’ve never minded Crash as much as some people, though it is the one that most seem to complain about. I was rooting for Good Night, and Good Luck that year.

DGA gave Hooper the prize over Fincher, Aronofsky and Nolan, man.

Seeing as how I just had to watch Crash again in a Sociology course, I will say in no uncertain terms that The Big Short is leaps and bounds beyond Crash. Watching Crash is like getting hit over the head with a very large brick that has “RACISM IZ BAD” scrawled on it in big, black letters, repeatedly.

Yup – they ain’t dumb, like I said…

I bet pretty big (for my standards) on 3/1 @888 earlier, like I said to another poster here. Should make a nice profit.

🙂

Yeah, I like that one too. 🙂 (And I LOVE Spotlight.)

It didn’t.

I hope it’s NOT McKay, though, of course. I hope it’s Miller or McCarthy! But it won’t be…

I think it’s McKay. I remember (from last year) that there’s a pretty strong stat about the PGA+SAG winner being extremely likely to win DGA as well and, since I think The Big Short should be the favorite (pretty clear, though not huge) to win SAG Ensemble too, at this point.

Same here… 🙂 (Except for wanting Boyhood to win last year – I loved Boyhood, but loved Birdman even more.)

Hi Caudiu – well, here are the very latetest developments in the betting market. 5′ minutes ago –
Be quick now, mate, as I can see that some others havn’t changed their odds yet!
Odds by WilliamHill UK for Best Picture.

5/4 – THE BIG SHORT
7/4 – SPOTLIGHT
11/4 – THE REVENANT
14/1 – THE MARTIAN
25/1 – MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
40/1 – ROOM
50/1 – BRIDGE OF SPIES
66/1 – BROOKLYN

Cheers!

Me too, but, on rewatches, I’ve come to love The Social Network more and more… I definitely rate it above The King’s Speech now, which I didn’t at the time – but still definitely not higher than Inception or Toy Story 3, or even True Grit.

🙂 Exactly. Another prediction that’s going against the stats. Stats-wise, Bale is more in it than Stallone (because of Stallone’s snubs) – not to say Stallone can’t or won’t win. He can, and he might. But Bale is definitely not 5th in this race…

Same here. Actually, I kind of hated it, but I fully admit that that’s for personal reasons. There’s a certain kind of awkwardness that is just unbearable for me to watch, in both life and on the screen. But I definitely admire its intelligence. I’m never going to root for it at the Oscars, though. Inside Out is in my top 5 this year, and I liked Boy & the World (the only other one I’ve seen so far) a whole lot more than Anomalisa too…

Smart move! Now what do you think happens with DGA? Is it Miller or Mckay? Or someone else?

Of course – I NEVER underestimate the stats favorite. I didn’t underestimate American Hustle either. 🙂 That didn’t work out, but, stats-wise, it was in the game. Pretty much the whole way.

Don’t worry, I know you didn’t mean me. 🙂

Really, I just focus on BP. 🙂 The stats for the other categories are a bit more volatile. Not so predictable as BP. Don’t get me wrong, I do OK in those as well. But I rarely win prizes… I get enough wrong that I finish just outside the winners’ circle in contests. (I’ve won some prizes, but not in the last 2-3 years.)

I did enter the ‘predict the PGA’ contest here and I got all 3 right, of course (I chose The Big Short as insurance – I would have never picked Spotlight anywhere, while personally supporting it, without it being the actual stats favorite.)

Well you knew the business. Oscars are still a bitch to predict. Those Animated Short and Doc Short categories often are what it comes down to when there’s a consensus in the main fields.

No, I didn’t enter – I focus on predicting the actual Oscars, because I already know all/most of the stats. I don’t try to predict the precursors. But maybe I should start, at some point… 🙂

i have said it again but spotlight will win BP Oscars

Not sure. I don’t think I win a prize, but its nice to have a placement up there. Did you enter here? I did- just 3 categories though, so a lot of us should win unless there less. A lot of people jumped to the Spotlight bandwagon after Critics Choice.

Yeah, I know. I was foolish not to enter myself… (Though I think the prizes at Gold Derby are only for American users, no? I don’t remember exactly.)

Thanks lol I was not expecting to place that high because as you know Goldderby is about points along with predictions, but I won 6000 for Big Short alone. I still don’t understand how they rank folks though.

Never happening…

:)) Totally… That’ll teach ’em to go against the stats! (Except, of course… it won’t… because they’ll rationalize it somehow and still think the stats don’t matter…)

Well done!

:)) It’ll probably work out for us (we who are already betting on The Big Short) too, actually – but the one time it doesn’t, eventually, if we keep betting too much, the consequences will be too big to handle…

Of course. And I agree. I maintain Spotlight was close, stats-wise, despite the ACE/BAFTA snubs, until today, which is why I was going against the stats with my personal prediction so far. But, yeah, the clues weren’t lying, even at this stage… sometimes they do, like with Boyhood last year, The Social Network before that, Argo before that – I think you’ll agree. But it wasn’t to be, this year, sadly (for us Spotlight fans, few though we may be.)

After tonight’s announcement, SAG may also follow suit; however, DGA may be another story.

The Big Short BP winner will have lowest MC score since Crash (and then A Beautiful Mind before that). Any chance in 10 years well be referring to this year as “The Big…” replace the vowel, and drop the “r”?

Claudiu, Sasha knew that Big Short was the only film to score nods at the major guilds. And we know the Oscars are a collective guild vote.

Posting from my cell phone by the way.

We have a lot of restrictions here as well.

But, anyway, there are other sites that should still have good odds. You can try some of the sites listed here: http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture

Anyway, bet responsibly! Seriously – I know it’s a cliche line, but it’s good advice. Don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose, no matter how certain the bet seems to be!…

Yup…

lol nice

Ahhh, I’m in the US, unfortunately.

I just took the 3/1 odds 888 is giving me. I’m too lazy to deposit, and I’m not a pro bettor anyway…

Yey for Inside Out
Boooo for The big short

So many better movies….. Sigh.

for best picture so don’t be too happy with the big short

I am a psychic and I predict spotlight is winning Oscar.

You’re right – it’s not over. There’s still that 10 % chance as you point out. This has just shaken it all up big (short) time! 😉

Yeah, didn’t do it for me… It’s still quite well made, and has its moments, but, apart from maybe Bridge of Spies, it’s my least favorite of the BP nominees.

Oh wow, didn’t love Room, huh?
Yeah, I need to catch up. I think only The Revenant might be able to crack my top 10 though, maybe 99 Homes or Ex-Machina.

I mean, all of this stats talk on my part is in no way meant to diminish Sasha’s experience and personal input when it comes to this prediction of hers! She knew and (rightly) believed in the stats, and she chose the most likely outcome based on them, but she still had to rule out all of the other possible outcomes (like Spotlight or The Revenant), because the stats WERE conflicting until now, make no mistake about it. All movies had stats to overcome. She was correct in her evaluation of which were key and which weren’t. I wasn’t. I though Spotlight was still more plausible. It was the second favorite, stats-wise, and I maintain that it was close. Most Gold Derby pundits, even Paul Sheehan, the stats guy, didn’t have The Big Short. But not Sasha. She saw the clues AND deduced correctly what they meant. That’s a big deal, and she deserves TONS of credit for it. She was wrong with American Hustle, for example, doing the same thing, but she was right this year. Kudos, Sasha!

FYI: Big Short is still +1200 on Bovada. Get the free money while bookies are still asleep.

We have our Best Picture winner. And I loved The Big Short, so I’m fine with it. Now let’s move to DGA and Best Dicrector. Please, let it be Miller!

SAG? The Big Short easily. Probably even Supporting Actor to Bale.

Believe it or not… it’s Room. 😀
I’ve seen all of those, except for 99 Homes. But I still have a lot I haven’t seen yet. I’ve just started with the big Oscar contenders, that’s all…

I still think it has a small chance. If it wins the SAG Ensemble. It’s been done before – beating the PGA winner. Even the PGA+DGA winner. But it’s very unlikely, for one, and even then it would be a very small chance. I don’t think it’s over, but I do think it’s 90% over.

I don’t think it’s the late release date. It was nominated often enough…

It’s kind of ridiculous that I haven’t seen it. I’ve enjoyed all of Inarritu’s films, I’m a big Leo fan, big Tom Hardy fan, I love Malick…there’s really no good reason I haven’t seen it yet haha.

Don’t forget it also won an Artios Award today. It’s 2 for 2 with Guilds so far! 😛

I actually really understand that, I had a similar relationship with Social Network. Given that, lol please do watch Revenant soon. Maybe lowered expectations help – I wasn’t expecting to be blown away, and honestly I kind of wasn’t immediately so (at least not by the whole thing – because the experience of watching the cinematography and the staggering beauty of the American Northwest was truly breathtaking and did blow me away), but The Revenant has perhaps had the best staying power in my memory of any movie I’ve seen this year, including my favorites Spotlight and Mad Max – that is, I think about it more (and more fondly) every day since I’ve seen it. I think a part of me also had to get over the Leo “Starpower” thing a bit – I mean he’s absolutely excellent in it, but it was initially maybe too easy for me to think of it as a hollywood star-powered vehicle, something I wouldn’t have thought had it been a lesser known actor, of course, but it turned out to be far greater than that.

I wasn’t blown away by ANOMALISA and I almost feel embarrassed to admit it. It was impressive and engaging, no doubt, but based on all the praise it was getting I was kind of expecting it to blow my mind. It was an interesting, meditative film about the human experience but it was also kind of underwhelming for me.

Could happen, but not the strongest stat going against The Big Short has been nullified – the fact that it hadn’t won any major BP awards yet. That’s why this is so important. The Big Short was either a big favorite, or not in it at all. This shows that it’s very likely the former.

I totally get that. You just want it to live up to expectations and then the expectations get too big! But I think you’ll really love it.

Not a lot, though, at this point, it must be said, and not very likely ones, either.

Yeah it’s definitely between Bale and Stallone. GoldDerby still has Bale in fifth place, which is absurd. But then, a lot of things about GoldDerby are absurd.

Spotlight SHOULD win BP. And it still might – there’s a small chance. There are some positive scenarios possible…

See my reply to his post!

If you’re just commenting on my post now, and aren’t one of the anti-stats guys from before, then the ‘getting what you asked for’ comment is not directed at you.

No! It’s about merit. It’s always about merit… Or so I’ve been hearing since the nominations came out.

Hmmmm is the outlier ME AND EARL AND THE DYING GIRL or STAR WARS?

I still haven’t seen CAROL, THE REVENANT, BROOKLYN, BRIDGE OF SPIES, SICARIO, EX-MACHINA, 99 HOMES, others…I’ve been slacking this year!

Well maybe it’s time where it won’t match up again. After all The Crying Game, Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Moulin Rouge, The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain and Little Miss Sunshine never went on to win Best Picture.

how are you feeling about it all now? Do you still believe Spotlight can make it?

some psychics are saying that spotlight will win Oscar so we shall see

I would have absolutely loved to see either Revenant or Spotlight take it.

It’s unusual to avoid seeing a movie because word of mouth is too positive. Give it a shot!

I still haven’t seen The Revenant. I’ve had a weird journey with it. I loved Birdman more than most, and when I saw the trailer for The Revenant, I was so excited for it. I can’t remember a trailer that has made me anticipate a film more than that one did.
Then the screener leaked and I told myself I wouldn’t watch it but would wait to see it in theaters. Then the people who loved the film were so annoyingly vocal about how much they loved the film, how it’s this modern cinematic masterpiece and AGI is a God, gloating obnoxiously after it won the Globes, and saying how it deserves to win every award, to the point of putting down other perfectly good films, and it has honesty discouraged me from seeing it. I have a feeling that when I do see it I will love it, just wish we could enjoy films without turning into assholes about it.

I like The Big Short quite a bit, although I wouldn’t even put it in my top five for the year (which as it stands right now would be INSIDE OUT, ME AND EARL AND THE DYING GIRL, THE END OF THE TOUR, ROOM, and STAR WARS, although there’s a bunch of movies I still haven’t seen) but I’ve been predicting it to win Best Picture since the SAG noms come out, so I’m thrilled to see it win here.

Yeah it really stings that Spotlight has lost so much momentum. At least Mad Max is still very much in the running for BD, but Spotlight’s been hit hard and that’s such a shame. I know the critics barely matter any more, but did Big Short win a single one? Or does the fact it didn’t reflect it’s December release date?

:))

It’s winning editing, clearly, and screenplay. And very likely director, TBH. Maybe even Supporting Actor…

I like it, Brian, thanks for saying it. I wouldn’t have been so witty or succinct! 🙂

Yeah, that’s one of the reasons I didn’t really buy it… but you can’t argue with precursor stats, now that we have enough of them telling us what they’re telling us. The Big Short is clearly the favorite now.

Amy winning over Look of Silence is 20 Feet from Stardom over Act of Killing all over again.

Listening to “When The Levee Breaks” in celebration!

I liked Amy and I liked Inside Out but yeah, they went for the biggest, most commercial choices there.

Yup. Sasha, the stats pundit, rules, as always! No surprise there…

I like Big short a lot but Spotlight should win best picture . The pga got both best animation and best documentary wrong also . Anamalisa and The look of silence best should have won.

That would have been great! But twas not to be 🙁

Big congrats to Sasha! She pulled off a major one this year! (And how did she do it? By listening to the stats… of course… It’s so easy to predict BP, yet so many people just ignore this method, even though we keep telling them…)

Take a bow sasha! I predicted The Big Short but was wary of The Revenant. All I care is that we have a game changer. I’m super mad at Gold Derby though because it was crashing all day so I couldn’t predict the other categories. Any other people at gold derby have that problem?

I’ve been backing Sasha all the way on this. Truly believed this could happen. Worthy winner indeed!

I really wished it were Mad Max.

Not editing! For god’s sake, Max needs to win a couple things.

“Spotlight” is a small movie and that was its biggest hurdle and it failed to overcome. The big studios rule once again!

The Revenant diehards are conspicuously quiet right now.

So Sasha was right… Oh, well… Too bad for Spotlight. (Not that it’s over, or anything, but it’s not looking good anymore, at all.) At least the stats were right too. 🙂

Another Argo-type year… (But with a much better BP winner, at least.)

Am happy THE MARTIAN also didn’t win. Didn’t deserve BP.

I’m relieved Mad Max didn’t happen. That movie is a joke that kept on going long after it stopped being funny. It’s good genre film. That’s it.

And Congrats to Brad Pitt and gang for making a movie with substance.

Miller taking DGA and McKay winning the Oscar makes sense to me.

“Floplight” I love it! 😉

Well, I think Bale’s taking Supp. Actor now. Big Short needs a couple plausible wins to go along with Best Picture, especially if Miller steals director.

The BAFTA noms make sense now. Floplight getting shut out there.

If big short sweeps I will have lost all faith that these awards are a credible source to recommend movies.

True. I’d be equally happy with either him or Inarritu winning DGA and BD at the Oscars.

So happy with this result! Mad Max is my 3rd favorite film of 2015, but The Big Short is just below it and ONLY because Mad Max’s craft towers greatly above everything else. I’m totally in favor of The Big Short winning Best Picture. George Miller should win Best Director though. McKay is great, but he’ll win for Adapted Screenplay (with Charles Randolph). Miller deserves Best Director the most.

my hat is off to sasha. i’m eating revenant crow.

yeah, very cool.

Sasha was one of only two Gurus at Movie City that predicted The Big Short. She gets to be the alpha for a while.

I hope this galvanizes the below the line vote.

A great roster of winners! But Big Short is not repeating this at the Oscars. Uh-uh. And I love The Big Short.

I wouldn’t discount Miller that much, he was the frontrunner for DGA until this development. I still think he’ll take it, but I’m guessing Oscar goes to McKay.

RIP Floplight. It flopped it’s last flop.

I’m just really glad that it isn’t Spotlight, honestly. I liked the movie and respect it. But what a boring choice. Delighted by this development.

It’s gonna be close. Big Short is showy as heck.

And while he didn’t get the trophy, he also produced Best Pic winner The Departed, and nominees The Tree of Life and Moneyball…

DGA is between McKay and Inarritu….but probably McKay…The Big Short has a big chance of sweeping all its awards… with Sly Stallone out at BAFTA and SAG, the race for those awards is between critics darling Mark Rylance and Bale, who was able to win Comedy Actor at BFCA, where Stallone took supporting actor…

Brad Pitt could win a 2d Producing Oscar in 3 years.

DGA will be interesting. Could be Miller. But The Big Short will be the favorite for BP either way.

I’m completely okay with this.

there we have it and also the sag to along with the pga

Wow go Sasha. Just wow. Hats off to the pro.

Big Short! Sasha got it!

Inside Out, Transparent, Fargo, Amy, Game of Thrones … ok finally on the last award, the only one anyone cares about.

Tell me about it. 7:00 a.m. here, haven’t slept yet, only 2 hours yesterday (not because of the awards though). Now feel like crap, completely tired, watching shitty movie while waiting for the announcement. Thank god it’s sunday today 🙂

Oh god, I hope not. That will be the lamest win in my opinion.

I’m definitely not expecting it, nor do I particularly care. As I’ve said, my personal hope is just for Miller to get BD. And Feinberg has been completely wrong about Mad Max all season. He thought it wouldn’t go anywhere and it did. Now he thinks it might win, it’s bound to lose. 😉

Martian winning would be so good and still keep the actual Oscars race open. The race is over with any of the big 3 getting it.

Me too. More than i ever expected.

nice descriptive word for it – epically. It is of epic proportion; impact wise, to which production this guild gives their top prize.

They’re giving out the Lear Award. Biggest TV awards still haven’t been handed out. This show always runs epically late.

that’s the spirit ! (ok, i’ve channelled my dose of Doris Day for the day) Back to hardbitten, world weary and downtrodden Dave) 🙂 I do love that stories and genres as disparate as these are placed together and celebrated; even for a moment.

If Max wins I’ll laugh and laugh. Not because I don’t love the film (it was one of my faves from last year) but because it’s soooooo non-Oscary. People will be madly (hee) scrambling to speculate whether AMPAS will ‘go there’.

Wow, really. I am they are right.

Thanks, Dave!

With options like these t’ll be hard to be disappointed this year, no matter what happens.

(and thanks for reminding me to change the headline from TBA to “in progress) 🙂

Scott Feinberg on Twitter: “Most people I’ve chatted with here seem to be predicting a MAD MAX: FURY ROAD win.”

I hate how late this is! 1am central time??

When I first glanced at the article I assumed without context “The Big Short” was the winner and I let out a huge “UGH”, but then I noticed the subsequently listed nominees and breathed a huge sigh of relief.

And Straight Outta Compton will win and make this the MOST insane year ever lol