Final Oscar Predictions for 2015 – Just Gimme Some Truth

[quote_colored name=”” icon_quote=”no”]FYI – I reserve the right to change a prediction or two before the final. Some shorts still need to be seen[/quote_colored]

This is a year where predicting the Oscars seems almost impossible. Category by category there is a hovering mystery, with no sure bets, no definitive frontrunners really, and the potential for surprises, contradictions and stat busting. The best films this year have a current of truth to them — truth finding its way out. Truth about the Catholic Church. Truth about Wall Street corruption. Truth about mankind’s legacy. Truth about currents of paranoia that ran through our culture in the 1950s that have come roaring back today. Truth about one’s sexual identity. Truth about the pure relationship between a mother and child, no matter what the circumstances. Truth about the spirit of children made to suffer in war. Truth about the impact of the hip hop movement on the black rights movement and the music industry. Truth about the future. Truth about the past. Truth about the ugliness. Truth about the beauty. Finally, truth about the capacity for hope in unity, not division, and how investment in science is the only way to save humanity going forward. It’s all here in this year’s slate of potential nominees.

The Best Picture race is clearly dominated by about seven movies, with a few stragglers floating around the edges. We know which films those are.

Let’s get into it, shall we?

Since the Academy expanded to more than 5 Best Picture nominees, there has only been one film that came out of nowhere to get an Oscar nomination and that was Selma. It had a lot of publicity heading into voting, however. Most films don’t get that kind of heat, so we’re probably not looking at any kind of advocacy voting to help salvage the Academy’s reputation again this year. What gets in for number 9, that isn’t on the Producers Guild list, will likely be a film that Academy members feel passionately enough about to put it at number one but doesn’t have enough corresponding branch nominations, which is why it hasn’t show up at the guilds. Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close, Tree of Life, Philomena, Dallas Buyers Club, Amour and last year’s Selma were all films that popped up in the 11th hour that couldn’t really be predicted. Some of them showed up at BAFTA (Philomena), some showed at SAG Awards ensemble only (Dallas Buyers Club), some showed up almost nowhere (Tree of Life).

Since Oscar expanded the field, in all years except 2011, every DGA nominees has got in with the Academy. In almost every year except 2013, 7 out 10 of the PGA films got in.

This is a complicated year for sure. Room is a big threat to make it in but I’m already including Carol off the PGA. I’m sticking with the rule that at most 7 out of the PGA’s slate have gotten in (since Oscar changed its rules back to five nomination slots, 2009 till now). 6 one year, but not more than 7. I am choosing Carol (predictable) and Beasts of No Nation (unpredictable) because on the 100 to 1 chance it gets in I want to have been among those who predicted it. I will probably be wrong so don’t you be like me.

Other surprise nominees that might take that last slot include: Steve Jobs, Room, Inside Out and The Force Awakens, Sicario.

Best Picture

1. The Big Short (SAG, ACE, WGA, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
2. Spotlight (SAG, WGA, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
3. The Revenant (ACE, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
4. The Martian (ACE, WGA, DGA, PGA)
5. Mad Max: Fury Road (ACE, DGA, PGA) Now – we have up to four, in an impossible year, five more choices.
6. Bridge of Spies (ACE, WGA, PGA, BAFTA)
7. Carol (WGA, BAFTA) That leaves us with two or three more. I’m going with:
8. Straight Outta Compton (SAG, WGA, PGA)
9. Beasts of No Nation (SAG)
10. Brooklyn (PGA)
11. Alt.  Steve Jobs, Room, Inside Out and The Force Awakens, Sicario

Best Actor

Best Actor looks (still) like Leo’s to lose, sealed up by the strength of The Revenant’s position in the race, hitting almost every guild and doing surprisingly well at the box office.  While its total awards take is yet unclear, its strength so far, coupled with Leo’s general popularity seems unstoppable. He will likely win the SAG Award (his biggest challenger, Matt Damon is not nominated). I had thought that Bryan Cranston could overtake him but then I saw Trumbo and I personally don’t think this is going to be Cranston’s Oscar win (though never say never). The SAG rule is, generally speaking, minus one name. Choosing who gets dumped and who gets in is the tricky part.

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (SAG/GLOBE/BAFTA)
2. Matt Damon, The Martian (GLOBE/BAFTA)
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (SAG/GLOBE/BAFTA)
4. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (SAG/GLOBE/BAFTA)
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (SAG/GLOBE/BAFTA)
6. ALT. Johnny Depp, Black Mass/Steve Carell, The Big Short

Best Actress

The same basic rule seems to apply for Best Actress, though sometimes two names are left off. Usually one.  I’m adding Alicia Vikander, because I think she will get in both categories. I could really make my odds better here by putting Vikander in both categories with the Danish Girl but I think the strength of her performances in both films — coupled with the full frontal nudity in Ex Machina and its PGA nomination – puts her strongly in the running there, too. But if you want to get a better guarantee on a higher score, put her in both categories with Danish Girl – you are going to lose one but you will also gain one for sure.  The reason I have her in this category is that I don’t feel any other actress pushing her out at the moment.

1. Brie Larson, Room (GLOBE/SAG/BAFTA)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (GLOBE/SAG/BAFTA)
3. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (GLOBE/BAFTA)
4. Cate Blanchett, Carol (GLOBE/SAG/BAFTA)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (GLOBE/SAG/BAFTA)
6. ALT. Charlotte Rampling 45 Years

Supporting Actor

This is the hardest category because it may this year be ruled by sentiment. I finally had to let go of Paul Dano, though I still hope he gets in. Without his performance being attached to a film with Best Picture heat, it’s hard to imagine him getting in. The Spotlight duo presents problems for the voters. They would have to rally behind one or the other — and Keaton’s popularity vs. Ruffalo’s more noticeable performance presents a challenge. Of the two, Ruffalo is likely the one that gets in.

1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5.  Jacob Tremblay, Room
6. Alt. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight or Michael Keaton, Spotlight, Paul Dano, Love & Mercy,  Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Supporting Actress

This is a toss-up for that final slot between Helen Mirren and Rachel McAdams.  I’m choosing Mirren because she is so popular with actors she got three SAG nominations. I also remember when Mila Kunis got a SAG Awards nod for Black Swan but then not an Oscar nomination. FUN FACT: Marcia Gay Harden is the only Oscar winner in this category not to have a prerequisite SAG nomination.

1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina 
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs 
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
6. ALT. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight, Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria  

Director

This is yet another wide open category. It is extremely rare for a director to win without an ACE nomination. It’s just never happens. Even when Driving Miss Daisy won in 1989 without an ACE nod, Bruce Beresford didn’t have a DGA or Oscar nomination so the issue was moot. We could still be looking at a split year with Spotlight taking Best Picture and someone else taking director but we don’t know who that could be yet. We have lots of contenders, of course. Inarritu could join a very elite list of directors who won back to back – Joseph L. Mankiewicz for Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve, and John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath and How Green was my Valley; in both cases, however, that director won Best Picture, too, the second time. That’s sort of the same idea behind actresses who have won twice  — when they win a second time it’s because they are also winning for Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby, Silence of the Lambs. Thus, I am not confident that The Revenant has that kind of stuff. It would literally have to be the first film in history to win Picture and Director back to back — beating John Ford, Steven Spielberg, Ang Lee, etc. I’m sure it has to happen some time — but maybe if the movie winning was something like Titanic.

Either way, I guess we’re still looking at a non-split year with Spotlight/Tom McCarthy (no ACE nom, no BAFTA nod for director), The Big Short/Adam McKay (kind of a fish out of water a bit, considering, but has the right stuff for sure), Ridley Scott/The Martian if (1) the studio backs The Martian over The Revenant (have a feeling they won’t) and (2) it lacks any SAG noms, and also lacks a BAFTA for Best Picture, which puts it in the long shot category.  There are two possible Best Directors who could get it — Todd Haynes for Carol and Steven Spielberg for Bridge of Spies. Usually the DGA misses one. Predicting which one is the tough part. I will keep the DGA five because I’ll probably only miss one. If I try to guess who gets dumped I might be wrong and get more than one wrong.

1. Adam McKay, The Big Short
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant 
3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Ridley Scott, The Martian
6. ALT. Todd Haynes, Carol, Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Original Screenplay

1. Spotlight, Tom McCarthy 
2. Inside Out 
3. Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman 
4. Straight Outta Compton
5. The Hateful Eight
6. ALT. Ex Machina, Alex Garland, Trainwreck, Amy Schumer

I don’t have confidence in Inside Out getting in. None at all. But I’m going with the herd on this one.

Adapted Screenplay 

1. Adam McKay, The Big Short
2. The Martian, Drew Godard
3. Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
4. Brooklyn, Nick Hornby 
5. The Revenant, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Mark L. Smith
6. Alt. Room, Emma Donoghue, Phyllis Nagy, Carol

I’m going to be hateful about this one because it’s just like them to shut out the women, isn’t it? I can’t decide between Carol or Room, and I also see the other five as stronger in terms of the race overall. I could swap Carol for Brooklyn but it’s hard for me to really bet against Nick Hornby.

Editing

1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road 
3. The Revenant 
4.  Spotlight 
5. The Martian
6. Alt. Bridge of Spies

I suspect you’ll see how much the branch loves Spotlight overall if it lands this nomination. I’m betting on it because Oscar ballots were turned in so early and the Academy is likely to follow the frontrunner. But we’ll see.

Cinematography

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Carol
4. Sicario
5. Bridge of Spies
   
6. Alt. Hateful Eight

Production Design

1. Mad Max: Fury Road 
2. The Danish Girl
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Martian
5. The Force Awakens
6. Alt. Hateful Eight

It kills me to dump Carol for this. I really think it’s getting in but why didn’t the guild nominate it? I wanted to dump The Danish Girl but in the end, after looking at Kris Tapley’s predictions, I changed it.

Sound Mixing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road 
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Straight Outta Compton
5. The Martian

Sound Editing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road 
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Inside Out 
4. The Martian
5. The Revenant

Costume Design

1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. The Danish Girl
4. Crimson Peak
5. Brooklyn
6. Alt. Mad Max: Fury Road

Original Score

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Spotlight
4. Carol
5. Bridge of Spies
6. ALT. The Hateful Eight

Best Song

1. “Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
2. “See You Again,” Furious 7
3. “Simple Song 3,” Youth
4. “Writings on the Wall,” Spectre
5. “Fighting Stronger,” Creed

Foreign Language Feature

1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Labyrinth of Lies
4. Brand New Testament 
5. Theeb

Documentary Feature

1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Listen to Me Marlon
4. Best of Enemies
5. Heart of a Dog 
6. Alt. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief 

Animated feature

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Peanuts Movie 
4. The Good Dinosaur
5. Shaun the Sheep

Visual Effects

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Force Awakens
3. The Walk 
4. The Martian
5. The Revenant 

Live Action Short

1. Shok
2. Stutterer
3. Everything will be Okay
4. Day One
5. Ave Maria

Documentary Short

I had the chance to watch a few of these and no film has moved me more than Chau Beyond the Lines — about a young Vietnamese artist disabled from the after effects of Agent Orange. I really hope it gets in. The other incredibly moving film was The Testimony — about women raped with impunity in the Congo.

1. Chau Beyond the Lines
2. The Tesimony
3. The Last Day of Freedom
4. Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah
5. A Girl in the River 

Animated Short 

This is a tough one to call because I haven’t watched any of them except Sanjay. So I’m flying blind here.

1. Sanjays Super Team
2. World of Tomorrow 
3. Prologue
4. If I Was a God
5. Bear Story

Tally

The Big Short, Spotlight – 5 nominations
Carol – 6 nominations
The Revenant, Mad Max, The Martian – 9 nominations

Finally, there’s a pretty good chance I will not win the predicting contest at Gold Derby this year. I’ve only won it once and that was last year. I would love to be the champ again but alas, I don’t think it’s happening.

Either way, good luck! I’m sure we’re in for some major surprises tomorrow AM.