This Sunday, the Critics Choice will tell us what they think will happen at the Oscars. They have six categories for acting and thus, it gives them a bit of an unfair advantage when it comes to matching up with the Oscars. Keep to five and match? Then I’m impressed. Six? Well, as we all know, isn’t that hard. Either way, they will be picking their winners and now it’s your chance to predict what they will do.
I actually have no idea. Given what we know about them (Boyhood, not Birdman last year) there are two possible ways they can go. They can do what the Globes did – reward Inarritu because they didn’t last year (the Academy DID, however, as did the PGA and DGA), or they can pick Spotlight. They generally go for the film that has the momentum with critics – like Boyhood. This year, that movie is Spotlight or Mad Max: Fury Road. I am just going to go ahead and predict that they go for Spotlight and George Miller split vote, presuming that the Academy might follow suit. They will vote party line the rest of the way, I figure, with Leo and Brie in the lead categories. Sly will get supporting actor. Spotlight will get original screenplay and I’m not sure what gets adapted, though I suspect it will be The Big Short or Carol. Supporting actress is a tough call – it will either be Rooney Mara for Carol or Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl.
But enough of my yacking, here is your contest. As usual, you can enter as many times as you want but generally we keep your most recent form.
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I think the best actress race is over. Sigh. I’m a little over Larson. It just seems like everybody’s hyping her, making it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I liked her a lot more before this year unfortunately.
lol true @ “except the Oscars..” Just like with the Grammys..
Creed is worthy of that imo..
I’m sure the BFCA’s show will come to speed eventually. I mean, few can really challenge the GG’s drunk stars, am I right? 🙂
btw give me a red carpet stream? kthx
Thanks! I hope one of us finds something!…
Yes, you can watch on their website but need cable subscription.
Not yet… I’m stalking IMDb and I’ll start googling again soon – I have something I need to finish now… I’ll post it if I find it – promise!
uh guys… Rachel McAdams for Trumbo? You’re missing Helen Mirren for supporting.
🙂 Sure!
For the next Award saison, you’ll know what to do, eearly birdl, ike chickens in the morning.
Thanks a lot for your assistance, and now let’s have a little “schnaps”..ha ha :))) !
I absolutely agree! 🙂
Ronnie killed them! Yeap let’s go now “Spotlight and for me with “Sly”, do you agree?
a double of 20,00 with 4/1 going on 100/1 ?, not bad? Cheers!
High five!…
I’ll give you “FIVE” …for luck!
Just ‘go Spotlight’, if I can pick one! 🙂
Yeap ……Here you go, well let#s see if I can brake the bank (The boookies !),
Stare de sănătate bună și noroc , sper pentru tine o mulțime de succes !
Ciao Claudiu, Cheers! Oh, go “Spotlight”…or “The Big Short”…..let the music play , my friend!
I hope Stallone does win! I have no particular affinity for Rylance’s performance (it was fine), and, since Ruffalo can’t win, why not Stallone?! But I don’t like his lack of a SAG nom, which is why I’m not predicting him for these. The Oscars are another story – too much left to settle before we can have a real idea of what direction this category is headed in there…
Anyway, like I said, I hope it IS Stallone, in the end, so that you win your bet! 🙂
Cheers, and pleasant viewing, if you’re watching tonight!
(Ronnie is killing. I have some bets on this match as well – both on the winner, and handicaps. But I guess you already know that…)
Salute Claudiu, well I’m back with some interesting news, I’ll think SYLVESTER STALLONE (I’ll took 100/1 betting odds remember this my friend ) is unbeatable in Best Supporting Actor, let’s hope the best is coming up for us as the 6000 Academy voters have to give him their love on their 1st bailout votes. Oh I’m really looking forward for some real wonderful holidays as I ‘ve made some doubles with tonights Master Snooker Ronnie O’Sullivan at 4/1 playing at the Masters. My best wishes for you too with “SPOTLIGHT” and “THE BIG SHORT” as a spoiler. Salutări cordiale pentru tine …..Cheers!
No, no, I mean as a precursor for the SAG Ensemble winner (which, in turn, when combined with DGA and PGA, results in powerful stats, despite being rather poor on its own), not for BP. 6/10 of those went on to win SAG, if my count is correct. That’s not negligible, though it doesn’t guarantee a repeat at SAG, either, of course.
Don’t put too much faith in the BFCA Acting Ensemble. Its track record is pretty poor.
* 2015: ”Birdman”
* 2014: ”American Hustle”
* 2013: ”Silver Linings Playbook”
* 2012: ”The Help”
* 2011: ”The Fighter”
* 2010: ”Inglorious Basterds”
* 2009: ”Milk”
* 2008: ”Hairspray”
* 2007: ”Little Miss Sunshine”
* 2006: ”Crash”
Out of those 10, only 2 of those ensembles went on to win Best Picture. That’s only 20%, as opposed to the SAG Ensemble winner, which matches up 50% of the time with Oscar.
I’m pretty desperate at this point… It’s not a good idea to not have a link just hours before the ceremony. 🙁 I know from experience…
Of course. Fury Road winning would be a pretty neutral result (which is part of why I’m picking it, and expect it, as it’s been that kind of season); though it wouldn’t be particularly good news for Spotlight, it would keep it in the top 2 in the race, in about the same position, as its main rival (in my opinion) would also be a loser here. Of course, like I said elsewhere, in this case, the ensemble award would become arguably the most important one of the night (because one of the two is going to win it, presumably, and it would be a good indicator of what SAG might choose) and, if The Big Short won that… that WOULD be trouble for Spotlight.
I don’t know, but maybe someone else here does!
I think they’re largely smart picks (because I agree with many of them – ha-ha!).
Of course, ”Mad Max” has an unfair advantage with 13 nominations because it also was eligible for Action and Sci-Fi categories that the other Oscar contenders couldn’t compete in. If ”Mad Max” walks away with the most wins tonight (which is likely), I wouldn’t say it’s automatically the new Oscar front-runner.
The BFCA manufactured these additional categories (i.e., Action, Sci-Fi, etc.) to lure big-name actors of mainstream movies, hoping their attendance would boost the telecast’s ratings.
First off, I doubt ”normal people” think about movie awards, except the Oscars, at all. It’s only folks like us who obsess over them. (Ha-ha!) Second, the Globes have a lot more history. These were the 73rd Golden Globes. The Broadcast Film Critics’ awards are only 20 years old. And finally, the Globes were on NBC. The BFCA’s on the far-fewer seen A&E.
Awesome! Thanks! Any idea about a working live stream? (No A&E in Romania – or at least with my cable company.) I searched for a couple of hours yesterday, but couldn’t find anything that worked. I’m hoping the situation is different tonight, but I’m worried…
They’ll be aired 8 p.m. EST (5 p.m., PST) on A&E, and repeated at 11 p.m. EST (8 p.m., PST).
Also, Fandango’s Dave Karger will be co-hosting a pre-show at 7 p.m. EST (4 p.m., PST).
I went into my predictions with a lot more confidence than I came out of them…
These things were already a joke when they bent the rules so they could add TFA after the voting had closed and the noms announced. Integrity (what there was to begin with) breached.
And what’s with these juvenile categories – “Best Actor in an Action Movie”? These aren’t critics, they are panderers who whip up the self-fulfilling prophecies that morph into the Oscar nominations we like to bitch about.
I wager there are dozens of commenters on this site who are far more astute than any cardholding member of the BFCA clubhouse.
Are these trainwreck awards going to be live streamed on AD? They are so much fun because they are so bad they are good. I hate to search the Net for the steaming link so please post it here!
I know. I meant more in terms of how normal people perceive the Golden Globes in comparison to the BFCA. The BFCA Critics’ Choice Awards are still underrated in terms of viewership and how much the majority of people put stock into its Oscar chances, whereas the Golden Globes are overrated.
It’s not such a secret. The Broadcast Film Critics Association openly boasts: ”Historically, ‘The Critics’ Choice Movie Awards’ are the most accurate predictor of Academy Award nominations.”
GoldDerby.com’s Paul Sheehan adds: ”It’s one of the best barometers in predicting the Oscars.” In its 20-year-history, the BFCA ”has previewed 12 Best Picture winners, as well as 16 Best Director, 13 Best Actor, 11 Best Actress, 11 Supporting Actor and 13 Supporting Actress champs.”
But the BFCA will combine its movie awards (28 of them) with its TV awards. That is a TON of prizes. How many will be given on-air? Plus, honors will go to ILM & Amy Schumer.
Which of my picks do y’all think I’m most likely to get wrong? (I promise I won’t reply with my usual stats-filled rants – I’m just curious for a few second opinions!)
Best Film – Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Actor – Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Best Actress – Brie Larson, Room
Supporting Actor – Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Best Supporting Actress – Rooney Mara, Carol
Best Young Actor/Actress – Jacob Tremblay, Room
Acting Ensemble – Spotlight
Best Director – George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Original Screenplay – Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay – Charles Randolph and Adam McKay – The Big Short
Best Cinematography – The Revenant – Emmanuel Lubezki
Best Production Design – Mad Max: Fury Road – Colin Gibson
Best Editing – Mad Max: Fury Road – Margaret Sixel
Best Score – Carol – Carter Burwell
Best Costume Design – Carol – Sandy Powell
Best Hair & Makeup – Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects – Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Animated Feature – Inside Out
Best Action Movie – Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Actor in an Action Movie – Tom Hardy – Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Actress in an Action Movie – Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Comedy – The Big Short
Best Actor in a Comedy – Christian Bale – The Big Short
Best Actress in a Comedy – Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie – Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Foreign Language Film – Son of Saul
Best Documentary Feature – Amy
Best Song – Furious 7 – See You Again
You do that. 🙂
Careful, now. We just might destroy the film awards prognosticating economy in the process. Also, aren’t they called “bespoke tranche opportunities” now?
(Saw the The Big Short for the 3rd time last night. I’m actually loving it more now that I understand more of the terms, for the most part. Also, the many trifles of the screenplay stood out to me more. Seriously, I’d rather have The Big Short win Best Picture than Spotlight.)
They’re secretly a solid predictor, better than the Golden Globes.
Thanks
OK, I found it: https://www.google.ro/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=what%20time%20are%20the%20critics%20choice%20awards
So it’s 34 minutes from now, tomorrow.
Also: is this going to be shown live on A&E, or somewhere else? Or isn’t it live at all? Because I’m looking here and it’s scheduled for the 18th: http://www.aetv.com/schedule
Am I looking in the wrong place?
:))
I just realized if Mad Max (or something other than TBS & Spotlight) wins BP here, the ensemble award will likely become the most important one of the night… 🙂 (Not that it would be hugely important even then, but, still…)
This was difficult. I haven’t studied the Critics Choice’s past history, so this was a shot in the dark. I went with Spotlight, George Miller, Leo, Saoirse, Sylvester, Rooney. Spotlight and Big Short in Screenplays. Amy Schumer and Tom Hardy, Charlize Theron, Amy for documentary, Son of Saul for foreign film. I picked Ex Machina for horror.
They nominated him in two categories, i think he will take it.
OMG, me too. I think Mad Max will easily dominate the techs here, but Hardy’s performance is minimalistic. I could see anyone win with this group.
Not nominated.
Is Carol missing in the list for voting for Adapted Screenplay? Or is it not nominated? I ask because in the intro you predict it or TBS.
Thanks
Strangely enough, the category I had most trouble with is Best Actor in an Action Movie. Hardy is nominated for Oscar but I went with Rudd instead.
How about some synthetic CDOs? Let’s have a contest to predict the winners of this contest.
I’m going with Mad Max all the way! Although probably that’s because I root for that.
BP/BD SPOTLIGHT/MAD MAX: FURY ROAD seems all but guaranteed here.