It’s interesting to be on the selling side of the awards race because you can tell which studio is really in it to win and which ones are either confident, nervous, or resigned. In some ways, it seems that many in Hollywood feel this race is all but locked up and thus, expect no surprises. And indeed, it could be. Will the SAG Awards tell us anything different from what we thought we knew before? Are any of the acting races still open? Are there any performances ripe for an upset? Can we expect some surprises?
The answer to that is, of course, no one knows. You can’t really predict surprises, but you can guess on what they might be based on buzz. Though the frontrunners often have an immediate target on their back, the time crunch between PGA/SAG/DGA and Oscar is pretty tight, making it a little harder to turn around public sentiment.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio will likely be winning his first SAG award this weekend, which will lead to his first Oscar win. This is an inevitable win for DiCaprio, as locked as any winner has been in recent memory. The reason is not just that he’s overdue for the win, not just because he puts himself through such extreme conditions, but because The Revenant itself is such a strong contender heading into the race that it would be difficult for it to lose its one big award, barring, of course, a surprise 11th hour Best Picture or Best Director win. The Revenant is going to go toe-to-toe with Mad Max: Fury Road for many of the tech awards, and we still do not know whether either Alejandro G. Inarritu or George Miller will beat Adam McKay for Best Director. Thus, Leo has it.
You have to go back 2003, when Johnny Depp won for Pirates of the Caribbean, to find a year when the SAG Award for Best Actor did not result in an Oscar win for Best Actor. Add to that, DiCaprio’s only viable competition here is Matt Damon for The Martian and he isn’t up for a SAG award.
Best Actress
Brie Larson, like DiCaprio, has this one sewn up for a variety of reasons, but namely because of that surprise Best Directing nomination for Lenny Abrahamson for Room. That puts Room ahead of Brooklyn, which puts Larson ahead of Saoirse Ronan. Larson’s only competition other than Ronan would have been Charlotte Rampling, who may have benefited from a sentimental vote, but she’s been taken out of the race by the #OscarsSoWhite controversy. The correlation between SAG and Oscar on Best Actress is not as reliable as Best Actor, and sometimes, in a close race, there can be surprises, like Marion Cotillard beating Julie Christie in 2007. But a surprise is not likely in this case.
Best Supporting Actor
This is the only wide open race. While there can be Oscar wins without SAG nominations, there has never been a SAG win without a corresponding Oscar nomination in this category. That would indicate that the award is down to either Christian Bale or Mark Rylance for the win. There is always a chance for surprises, to make history. For instance, Jacob Tremblay could win, or even Idris Elba. But I would wager, just based on what I know about SAG, that the Oscar nom is still the anchor. I believe that if you put the two performances side-by-side, Bale has the edge over Rylance. The Big Short also has more heat, having just won the Producers Guild. Then again, Tommy Lee Jones won for Lincoln in 2012, so perhaps there is strong enough love for Bridge of Spies, not to mention all of the TV actors who might have loved Wolf Hall (and speaking of which, both Idris Elba and Mark Rylance are nominated for a SAG in television). Thus, many pundits might rightly go for Rylance because of that double nomination. They’ll reward Elba for Luther and Rylance for Bridge of Spies. I could see it going down that way. It’s your choice. I think it’s a coin toss between Bale and Rylance, though I’ll stick with Bale for the moment. The last time SAG awarded both Supporting Actor and Ensemble to the same film was for Inglourious Basterds in 2010.
Best Supporting Actress
This is another wide open race. I so want this win to go to Rooney Mara as Carol’s major win after such a shameful shutout of Best Picture and Best Director. The only one who didn’t get a corresponding Oscar nomination was Helen Mirren for Trumbo. Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe, and Alicia Vikander won the Critics Choice – but Rachel McAdams could be Spotlight’s only win for the night. This is a wide open race. The only thing we do know is that it’s very likely the winner here will go on the win the Oscar, although even that is not a certainty.
Ensemble
Again, the SAG rule traditionally is that no Ensemble nominee shall win without a corresponding Best Picture nomination unless you’re The Birdcage. That makes it down to The Big Short vs. Spotlight. It’s a tough tough call there. Both films are filled with revered, respected actors. You have 150,000 people voting. What will a vast consensus go for? Even though I love The Big Short more, I would have a hard time picking this award between these two films. I guess what would be the determining factor here is popularity of the stars. I’m gonna wager that Brad Pitt, Christian Bale, and Ryan Gosling are the more popular stars; thus, voters would want to see them on stage, especially since they just saw Michael Keaton on stage last year when Birmdan won. But I could be totally wrong here.
Our predictions at the moment would be:
Actor: Leo DiCaprio
Actress: Brie Larson
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander, but wondering about Kate Winslet and Rooney Mara, and even Rachel McAdams. Basically, I have no idea.
Ensemble: The Big Short but Spotlight could take it
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“SAG Ensemble for The Big Short please because it really is the best ensemble of the year. Every person is pitch perfect in this movie.”
Replace ‘The Big Short’ with ‘Spotlight’…
Try here: http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/tnt-live-stream
Thanks, Jacob! I thought I was Cranston all the way til I watched Steve Jobs. I was expecting to not like and to be distracted by Michael Fassbender not looking a thing like Steve Jobs and I not only was I not distracted, I was completely sucked into the whole thing. It is strange what movies draw us in and it’s VERY subjective. Having had a tough childhood with troubled parenting, films that explore the parent-child relationship always hit me hardest. So I think that’s why I was so surprised by Steve Jobs.
Do you think there is Mirren fatigue in AMPAS? I’m really waiting for JLaw fatigue, but she’s still so young and pretty, we may never get there in my lifetime.
Bitch dont cop an attitude because you have atrocious grammar!
Does anyone have a link to watch the sag awards on streaming?
I bet people were’t predicting the Mad Max love either. Action movie, stuck in production hell….
I respect your awesome dedication for watching every screener. I would have voted for Bale over Tremblay and Mirren over EVERYONE else as a total protest vote for her undeserved Oscar snub. Mara would have been my 2nd pick to be honest, but a distant 2nd out of the 5 Supp. Actress nominees.
I didn’t care for Steve Jobs, and I would have voted for Bryan Cranston for his compassionate and layered work for playing an American icon who couldn’t be more different than Walter White from Breaking Bad, or Hal from Malcolm in the Middle. But good to you for voting for your honest pick, and not just being a sheep following the herd. Your votes are definitely not predictions, Mel S. They are your actual favorites, and you make SAG voters look dignified with your honesty. 🙂
For the record, I believe you. And are all you people nuts for suggesting SAG voters weren’t bribed into voting for something obviously terrible like for example, Nicole Kidman for f**king Grace of Monaco?!?!
Shit happens, I totally buy her being his actual real-life babysitter. It makes perfect sense to me! ;P
Please, keep posting then, since it’s meaningless. I’ll be over here enjoying my privileges as a member of SAG-AFTRA.
The film states that he has one glass eye.
Right about Bateman. I thought the back and forth with that role was where the competition between the two came from, if it exists. I mean I know I consider Bale the best actor of his generation and I’m sure many think the same. That’s got to bug Leo a bit even if he’s the bigger “star”. I don’t know if they hate each other though.
Funny. I thought she was Sasha too.
I actually think she is an amazing troll. Wouldn’t be surprised if she was Sasha all along.
Irrelevant how the performance was achieved. And no, the scenes were not shot separately and edited together — absolutely untrue.
That someone as imperceptive and ridiculous as you casts an actual SAG ballot tells us everything we need to know about how meaningless all this really is.
They eye problem wasn’t explained by the narrator; it was explained by Burry himself within the first 15 minutes of the movie (he has one fake eye and even has to dab at it with a tissue while interviewing someone for a job).
lol
Sasha, surely this type of unsubstantiated slander- that a SAG voter accepted a bribe- has no place here
They’re different actors. I would have never seen Bale as Jordan Belfort or Howard Hughes. And Leo would have never played Patrick Bateman the way Bale did.
I spoke to Jacob Tremblay’s babysitter after a screening of Room in New York. She says she’s a SAG voter and she voted for him.
“Not because he’s a good actor. He kind of annoyed me in the movie to be honest. All those tantrums and fits he threw in front of Brie Larson- that wasn’t pretend. He’s like that about eighty percent of the time. But because his mother really wants him to give another speech (and paid me a nice little bonus) I figured what the hell. It’s not like the little bastard is winning an Oscar.”
BAFTA does like to predict what the Oscars will do. Yes, they got Film & Director ”wrong” last year, but for the last few years, they correctly predicted all the Oscar-winning actors. … More than that, BAFTA changed its voting system and schedule to line up with the Oscars.
No idea if Leo or Christian ”hate each other.” But according to a tell-all book, written by Bale’s former publicist, Harrison Cheung, Christian considered Leo his toughest rival for movie roles. Bale allegedly was up for ”This Boy’s Life,” ”What’s Eating GIlbert Grape” and ”Titanic” – and lost all those parts to Leo.
The SAG Awards are only 20 years old, but I looked through the archives. I don’t believe a kid has ever won a solo SAG Award. Tremblay, at 9, is the youngest male SAG nominee (beating Haley Joel Osment, 11).
If Tremblay wins, he’ll be the youngest male SAG recipient (beating a posthumous Heath Ledger, 28).
I wanted to vote Spotlight, but Ruffalo was so bad with his scrunched up facial tic overacting in an otherwise low-key, flawless job by everyone else. I just couldn’t do it.
Rylance was the only compelling thing in Bridge of Spies and would be a deserving winner.
I don’t predict, I want:
Leonardo di Caprio and Kate Winslet to win on the same night.
Saoirse Ronan to upset the overrated Larson
I want want Mark Rylance to win this SAG award
AND FINALLY I want the cast of Spotlight and Michael Keaton to get the recognition they deserve.
Tremblay was the best of the choices. He is the reason that movie affected me. I somehow managed to feel jack shit for Brie Larson, which was weird, because I’m normally overly emotional about these things…..nothing about her performance grabbed me though.
My only question is, was it really Tremblay’s acting ability or Abrahamson’s ability to get him to do what he needed him to do? Several scenes b/t Tremblay and Larson you could tell were shot separately and edited together b/c who knows what they really said to that kid to get those lines. Kinda the same way Zeitlin got that performance out of Quvenzhané Wallis. Another performance, btw, that left me in shambles.
I cast my actual SAG ballot yesterday and went Fassy, Blanchett, Tremblay, Mara with Straight Outta Compton for ensemble. Those were truly my favorites and did watch every single DVD screener and digital streaming screener provided to us.
I wish I could have voted for Abraham Attah.
Really hope Mara wins……category fraud or not, she had the best, most beautiful, nuanced and selfless performance in any film this year. I’m unsure of why Vikander is so hot, especially for The Danish Girl, which was a truly awful, offensive and schlocky film. Her performance was all over the place in that movie…..she started all cheesy, hammy top to Redmayne’s willowy little bottom and ended it all shrinking flower walking a trail of tortured tears. The character she started the movie playing really would not have become what she did at the end of that film. I honestly think people like her in it b/c it’s so damn awful she’s the only thing you don’t hate and of course you feel sorry for her b/c Redmayne acts like such a damn creepy freakazoid.
I really hope they make Leo and Christian Bale take photos together should they both win. Don’t they hate each other???? Makes sense…Bale could’ve nailed parts in Scorsese’s films, but he’s not Italian-American sorry.
Don’t wait that much. I have a hunch she’ll be terrific in both, The light between oceans and Tulip fever, both of them coming out late this year.
If BAFTA nominations are any indication, it doesn’t seem like the British Academy is that crazy about ”Steve Jobs” since it only got 3. … Speaking of honoring ”their own,” none of BAFTA’s Best Film nominees is even British. … ”It’s blatant that [‘The Revenant’ is] promoting it.” … Is there ANY movie that wouldn’t be promoting their 12 Oscar nominations? What’s ”blatant” about that? … ”It’s self-congratulatory.” The HFPA GAVE those awards to ”The Revenant,” so the Globes are the ones doing the congratulating.
My SAG predictions are Spotlight, Leo, Brie, Mark R, and Alicia. I’m sticking with Stallone for Oscar because I desperately want it to happen and don’t believe Bale is that good. I love his acting, but this part wasn’t overly impressive to me. Rylance is second. Production Design, Editing, and Sound are rather hard this year.
The last two BP winners, Birdman and 12 Years A Slave were Produced by Regency Enterprises, and Distributed by Fox Searchlight.
This year Regency have The Big Short, and Fox have Brooklyn.
I gotta put my money on Tremblay for Room! Love that performance and think that his speech at the Critic’s Choice gives him an edge. Have they ever honored a child actor???
Vikander has had an incredible year so she will deserve if she won. I think we will see more of her (not much after Ex-Machina, I loved that film) in the years to come.
Huge box office doesn’t he’s popular with BAFTA. I think they will want a real performance giving by one of their own and recent top performer, fassbender. There is no doubt that the huge nominations have contributed to “The Revenant’s” box office and it’s blatant that they are promoting it. it’s got an MC score of 76 and yet it gets so many nomination and even won GG BP and BD. it’s self congratulatory.
SAG Ensemble and Best Picture Oscar only match up 50% of the time. … Since ”Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), other Ensemble winners include: ”Inglourious Basterds,” ”The Help” and ”American Hustle.”
Leo’s pretty popular over there. ”Revenant” is doing terrific box office; it’s No. 1 in Britain, dropping only 24% in its second weekend. And BAFTA gave ”Revenant” 8 nominations.
Yes, you would see that’s obviously what I meant if you read the rest.
By who, the narrator? I think that was one of the annoying about the film as well as Brad Pitt lecturing even though he was still making money off people’s suffering. I need to watch again because even though I liked it very much the first time, there were things which annoyed about it. Think back to the film I can see why TBS might right the Academy’s alley. It’s a testosterone fuelled rich white guys playing the public for suckers.
The four who won with heir film being nominated for a BP are…
?? You must mean NOT BEING nominated for BP.
Really I wouldn’t mind which of these young actresses win. I like Ronan more as I have been following her career since “Atonement”, but I like Larson’s film more. I also don’t mind who wins Best Supporting Actress as they seem deserving and nice persons. Kate winslet is one of my favourite actors so certainly wouldn’t mind if she won again, but I will very sad if Mara doesn’t win. She and Blanchet gave the two best performances this year. There’s no doubt in my mind that “Carol” is best film last year and only “Inside Out” came closest to it.
“I kept wondering what’s wrong with his eyes.”
This was explained multiple times in the film.
Weinstein is behind some of biggest BP robberies in Oscar history. Unusually this year he doesn’t a film in the race. Campaigns favour big studios, that’s why “Spotlight”, “Room” and Brooklyn” are toast.
The BAFTA belongs to Ronan but I feel the momentum is with Larson.
Yes the campaigns are something we don’t hear much about, and I don’t think we can underestimate their importance. Something like The King’s Speech surely could not have won without it.
The other thing that doesn’t get mentioned much is groupthink. Once a film appears anointed, many follow
I agree and I think Larson is close to a lock too.
You might question his performance in other films but he owned than role. He wasn’t only acting but also singing. It was a knockout performance! I thought he was pretty good “Collateral” too which he was also nominated in the same year.
Really? Even though he won every award going, you think his performance was overrated. Anyway, it was still way better than Leo’s.
BAFTA does not want to predict anything because it goes its own and it was proven last year when they rejected “Birdman” and went for “Boyhood” instead. This year, they went big for “Carol”, I am not sure which film they go for as BP but TBS feels the least likely to me. But I’ve been wrong predicting BAFTA this year, so they might go for TBS too. I didn’t think they would snub MM: FR and made even worse by going for “The Revenant”. I think it might the first time in long time that all three Major film awards, the GG BAFTA and Oscars, go for three different films. BFCA might make it for if BAFTA goes “Carol” and Oscar goes TBS.
I suddenly want to see The Big Short a lot more.
He deserved to win ahead of Jamie Foxx in “Ray”? I think Leo will SAG and Oscar but I think he will lose BAFTA.
When it comes to acting awards BAFTA goes its separate ways. They will go for some because they want predict Oscars, they pick their own chose. Sometimes they don’t even nominate Oscar nominees. For example, BAFTA passed on both the Oscar winners in the “Dallas Buyers Club” and “The Fighter”.
Oh, I thought it was some weird acting or something. The most respected actors are the character actors. I mean Bale is one of best of the current breed of actors, but he’s not that respected. To be nominated you either have be loved or respected or the performance just knocks out of the ground and then there’s no questions. The most nominated actors are revered and loved, Bale is not either and his performance is not a knock. Rylance and Elba are much respected actors than Bale and Dicaprio, but then the latter two have fame and money. Leo will win best lead actor but he’s not as respected as Fassbender and even Cranston. Leo very popular personality out the acting world than inside it and he might finally win due to a weak year and mass from pundits and fans.
SAG ensemble has become their defacto BP award- Slumdog millionaire anyone?
Too hard to pick. I think TBS is favored but I’d love Spotlight to take it, cos I’d like to see the race shaken up, and I much much preferred it
Rylance might have a homefield advantage at BAFTA (moreso than Bale). Rylance is one of the most acclaimed British stage actors, and he’s done lotsa TV in England, too.
SAG Ensemble for The Big Short please because it really is the best ensemble of the year. Every person is pitch perfect in this movie. And Christian Bale should win as well.
I am not so sure about that because Rylance (Elba too) is an actors actor. Bale didn’t BAFTA for the fighter they chose Rush in TKS. The are some actors who are loved and they get lot of nominations and wins such as the Streeps, Mirrens, Denchs, Smiths and the Blanchets, and Bale is not one of those. Also watch out for Kate wins a lot.
Mike Burry has a glass eye in real life. I’m not sure if they did anything cosmetically to make Bale’s eye appear to be glass. I imagine he used some sort of contact lens that makes it appear to be glass like, but I can’t say for sure.
Oh, I thought it was some weird acting or something.
Bale or the character?
He had a glass eye.
I didn’t think Bale’s performance was all that great, I kept wondering what’s wrong with his eyes. Did I imagine that? Rylance performance was very good if not spectacular and better than Bale’s. The reason I don’t think Bale will win is because he has already won and Rlance will have big support even if he’s not a campaigner.
Eleven out of the last fifteen Best Supporting actress winners have in a film that’s been nominated for an Oscar BP. The four who won with heir film being nominated for a BP are 2000 Marcia Gay Harden, “Pollock”, 2005 Rachel Weisz, “The Constant Gardener”, 2006 Jennifer Hudson, “DreamGirls” and 2008 Penelope Cruz in “Vicky Christina Barcelona”. Two of them(“DreamGirls” and “VCB”) have been nominated for GG Best Picture Comedy and Musical and they both won while TCG was nominated for ten BAFTAs including BP. “Pollock” is the only unheralded film and it adds to the uniqueness of Marcia Gay Harden being the first actor and still one of two actors (Waltz won for “Django Unchained”) to win an Oscar without SAG nomination. “The Hateful Eight”, “The Danish Girl” and “Steve Jobs” have not been nominated for any of the major awards which leaves Mara and McAdams as the only actors whose films are highest acclaimed. “Spotlight” has been nominated everywhere but “Carol” has missed the two crucial one which are Oscar and PGA. “Carol” also missed “SAG” ensemble. According to the stats, it’s between McAdams and Mara and then Winslet and Vikander in third and fourth due to their wins at the GG and BFCA.
Last year, nobody could’ve predicted that the arguably, front-running Best Picture would be directed by Tom McCarthy. His last movie was an Adam Sandler flop that got only a 8% rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
“It’s interesting to be on the selling side of the awards race”…..so give us the names of the sellers and put them on the record. Share that interesting experience.
Sure, the films should stand on their own, but they don’t. We have elaborate campaigns. Report the campaigns. Who are the players? Which films did they flack last year, and previous years? What is their record? What do they actually say? Where do they put their campaign budgets? Who has the most money?
I would eliminate all Oscar campaigns if I could. They serve to enhance the power of the old boys and disadvantage outsiders.
Forgot that Downton beat GoT. Ouch.
I think you’re referring to Rylance’s acceptance speeches for his first TWO Tony wins. I thought they were plain weird. But for his 3rd Tony win (2014) for ”Twelfth Night,” in which he was brilliant, Rylance gave a beautiful tribute to Sam Wanamaker, an American actor who was blacklisted and left for England. It’s because of Wanamaker’s great efforts that the modern re-creation of the Globe Theatre in London exists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQBe848Xqrc
Funny. I say Bale and Winslet. I just feel Winslet’s been campaigning so much harder than Vikander has been. Bale gives such a dynamic performance, and Rylance will already probably win for Wolf Hall, finally!
The SAG voters love British anything, Downton Abbey beat Game of Thrones last year, and could repeat this year when no one including me, thought they would win. Something to consider for sure.
Realistically I say Vikander and Bale, but Elba and Winslet could totally happen too.
I think we’re the first on what will be become a very large boat.
I chose Vikander and Rylance but am not confident about either.
I want Mark Rylance to win something — ANYTHING — because he is absolutely the best at giving awards speeches. The two he recently gave for Tony Awards wins are hilarious and weird, reciting poems by Louis Jenkins without any explanation or introduction.