If Bernie Sanders needs to win Iowa to show he’s got the goods, Spotlight needed a big guild award for the same reason. Had it not won the SAG Award tonight, Spotlight probably would have been out of the Best Picture race. But a plurality tally of 160,000 film and television actors (as well as broadcast journalists, radio announcers and on-air television news talent) picked Spotlight to win.
At first, the night seemed like it might be headed in Straight Outta Compton’s or Beasts of No Nation’s direction, once Idris Elba won Supporting Actor, beating Christian Bale and Mark Rylance. For a while there, people were thinking the SAG voter’s display of diversity might end with Compton winning Outstanding Ensemble. But ultimately SAG maintained its tradition of awarding its Ensemble Award to one of Oscar’s Best Picture nominees. The other option was The Big Short, which many of us thought was poised to win. The reason being that the more dramatic and overall flashy performances usually win the day with SAG voters.
Perhaps the most important thing about Spotlight’s win was the way they made the most of it. The actors didn’t spend a lot of time at the mic thanking people personally, but went right to the heart of the film’s message about the widespread abuse of the Catholic Church and the countless victims left in its wake. They even said something like “the good guys win.” That puts it in direct contrast to The Big Short, where the bad guys definitely win, and pointedly so.
How those two themes will play out with Oscar voters is a different story. I do know that the majority of pundits I know and read are in Spotlight’s corner all the way and will be very happy with this win tonight — just as the Producers Guild win for The Big Short was a big bummer for them. I think I’m literally the only one out there who wholeheartedly loves The Big Short, though I do believe Spotlight is a great movie and a formidable winner for sure. I don’t think there is any film nominated for Best Picture that would be a drag to see win at this point.
But where does that leave us with this race? It’s sort of a crazy thing. SAG’s history is tricky now that they’ve merged with AFTRA because we’re not talking about just actors anymore. This might account for some of the unexpected nominations and the Idris Elba win. The 60,000 new AFTRA voters make a huge difference. There are a lot of broadcast journalists now voting for the SAG Awards since the two unions merged, so the guild is a different hybrid compared to what it used to be. It’s maybe a little more like the Broadcast Film Critics Association.
We can’t know for sure what that means, but one could possibly make the case that the new infusion of on-air news people could be more sympathetic to the plight of journalists to get a story right than film industry people might be. On the other hand, winning over any huge group like the SAG does show where Spotlight’s strength lies: it is accessible to almost everyone and remains an across-the-board loved film. It doesn’t alienate anyone, it doesn’t offend anyone, and it doesn’t confuse anyone. Spotlight tells a story everyone feels angry and upset about, while being sympathetic toward the trauma of the victims and the struggle of the reporters. This lofty sense of social consciousness is in keeping with many of the films that have won Best Picture, with the exception of last year’s winner, Birdman.
Unless the Directors Guild goes for a movie other than Spotlight or The Big Short, the contest between these two is likely to be decided by the DGA. If Adam McKay wins there, or if Tom McCarthy wins — I could see either happening — then it’s probably a done deal. The DGA winner will likely trump the PGA (if it’s Spotlight) or concur with the PGA (if it’s The Big Short)
If some other movie wins the DGA, then you are on your own in predicting Best Picture. It is literally a roll of the dice. The somewhat confusing thing about this year (and one reasons it’s been so hard to predict where the race is headed) is that prominent Oscar people like Anne Thompson ARE journalists and others like Jeff Wells like to believe they are. Which means Spotlight is their Valentine. They might have preferred the movie anyway, but there is no denying that Spotlight also stands for getting the story right and doing it honestly, in a way that doesn’t often happen anymore. McCarthy’s film is a tribute to the Spotlight team at the Boston Globe as much as it is about the victims and the Catholic Church. That’s why real journalists often show up at Spotlight events — and that optic matters. That is a part of the story. If that type of thing is in the wheelhouse of an awards writer, it can throws perceptions off and tilt them away from a movie that isn’t.
Still, you can’t deny the attraction of a film that is about something universal, one that appeals broadly and universally, egos set aside. You see, we in the punditry world can get our egos tangled up in a movie winning so that it becomes important to BE RIGHT and not BE WRONG — so that observers won’t point at us and say, “See you were wrong, why should I listen to you?” Try as we might to avoid those feelings, it inevitably turns out that way.
But this is a weird year. By all rights, if Spotlight were truly the frontrunner, it should have won the preferential ballot at the PGA. It would have received an ACE Eddie nom and a BAFTA nom for Best Director. But if Spotlight didn’t have hidden strength, The Big Short would have won the SAG Awards Ensemble. So you see, we’re in a pickle. Quite a pickle.
But let’s quickly look at a few things.
1) Only four films have won Best Picture without winning any of its SAG nominations: The English Patient, Gladiator, The Hurt Locker, and The Departed. All but Gladiator won the DGA. All but The Departed won the PGA. But again, SAG is now SAG-AFTRA so in a way, history begins anew. (a challenge for The Big Short)
2) No film has ever lost the PGA, won SAG Awards Ensemble, then won the DGA. (a challenge for Spotlight)
3) No film has ever lost PGA, won SAG without also winning an Eddie and then won Best Picture. (a challenge for Spotlight)
4) No film has ever won Best Picture without at least a SAG Ensemble award nod (except Braveheart). (a challenge that neither Spotlight nor The Big Short need worry about)
We’re kind of back to where we were before the SAGs. We’re either about to witness something that has never happened before (like Idris Elba winning the SAG after being overlooked by the Oscars) or else things will begin to fall in line like they usually do.
At this point, I think the only sensible thing to do is wait to see what the Directors Guild does. If George Miller wins the DGA, what then? Then Best Picture is a spin on the roulette table. I’d probably still go with The Big Short just because betting against, or shorting, the PGA and its preferential ballot winner is a riskier proposition.
I think Spotlight has a really great campaign team pushing it and all it needed was one big win. If it also wins the BAFTA, that will be another huge indicator. If it wins the DGA, it’s probably all over but for the shouting.
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It happened just as you said. The Bee’s Knees came in second. How funny that your prediction came true, but now I am a believer. 🙂
According to my readings, the DGA winner will be Ridley Scott. Again, just like Ben Affleck in 2012, it’s a pity vote. And if there ever was time for there to be a pity year, it’s 2015. OscarsSoWhite, elections coming up, Leo and Stallone overdue for underwhelming work. This is a Political junket and Scott easily takes this. Who’s going to vote for nobodies like McCarthy and McKay (why, I even get their last names mixed up)? How did they even get into the film festivals? Don’t you have to KNOW people to get into those things? After all, LA is a VERY VERY secret town. No one let’s anyone know how they made it, or who to talk to. You have to be a detective (or sleep on the right couch, if you know what I mean). George Miller isn’t going to win for directing the most boring action film to date. And Who’s the last nominee again? Exactly, forgotten already.
SIR Ridley Adams Scott, III will win the DGA- and be pictured next to presenters Steven Spielberg and (sigh)- Cheryl Boone Isaacs, who herself is trying to cover up the smear campaign to get Straight Outta Compton a Best Picture win via write-in vote- which is going to happen in two categories already (Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor for Idris Elba).
I’ve never been more popular then this season either. Did I tell you that Jane Fonda bumped into me and said I was the best psychic she had met that morning? I laughed, and told her it was too bad she looked old in a movie called Youth. She walked away insulted, but whatever- that’s Hollywood.
I am unabashedly in love with Fury Road and it will remain “shiny and chrome” regardless of any awards. While I would like to see it and Miller win an Oscar, I don’t think that will happen. Two guys racing through the desert, on the hoods of vehicles, blowing gasoline into engine intakes. Movie madness but probably not the typical Oscar friendly scene or movie in general. Maybe Fury Road like so many other great movies should remain unsullied by “mediocre” Oscar approval!
There bout just as many enthusiastic supporters of the guilds choices esp the sag ensemble award this year as there been in last few yrs. And highly questionable most of u are supporting enthusiastically the path of the major guilds anyway the gulf between public and award outcome sentiment has never been greater the totally avoidable race row the oscars are facing only reinforces this fact. I think it safe to declare oscar public regard and respect is in terminal decline. Far too many unjustified snubs, too many disconect btw major guild and public sentiment outcomes, too many i owe u,s and frankly zero common sense. I think oscar should let in journalists within holly wood and it would not hurt mre broadly within the US media fraternity beyond like the ny times, la times, sanfrancisco chronicle and others to let public media in with mre transparency than the unjust low lvls they do to date. The way oscar announce the knee jerk reaction in response to the oscarsowhite campaign proves public deserve as much nw mre than ever the right to fuly undrstand where the voting is flawed. By all means this proposa5 and case i put forward for greater public scrutiny should not reveal the voting intentions but is it not in public interest fnr oscaqg to acknwledge and include the public as part of any genuine reform process of balots and voting habits?
True. Even after The King’s Speech won the PGA and it was starting to look like the industry preferred it to The Social Network, a lot of people were predicting Fincher to win the DGA. (I believe SAG took place after the DGA that year.) I wouldn’t be surprised if a similar thing happened this year.
Woops, I guess I forgot my main point which is I agree that Tom McCarthy is probably in a lot stronger position than many prognosticators are allowing.
I wonder how many of the fanboys and -girls on the site who are confidently predicting George Miller would have predicted Tom Hooper in 2010? The Academy and the DGA aren’t nearly as action/genre-movie-crazed as the contributors to this site.
Yeah and they considered Ridley Scott the frontrunner before the nominations
OK, I guess I meant ‘The Revenant, MMFR or The Martian’. 🙂 Got the DGA and Oscar lineups mixed up a bit there…
Not if it’s The Revenant, MMFR or Bridge of Spies. 🙂 People have made this mistake before, thinking that whatever wins the DGA will also win BP. See the Gravity year! (And numerous other examples, in fact, most of them before the PGA and Oscars were decided by the preferential ballot.)
🙂 I can understand that, of course. If it doesn’t involve you as much as it does me, and others, then it’s perfectly logical that you wouldn’t get where all the love is coming from. I’m the same way with a lot of beloved movies… (I’m sure everybody is.)
“The best film are rewarded”
First, it’s debatable whether Carol actually is the best of the year – it can probably be said it’s one of the best of the year, but, above that, it gets subjective.
Secondly, I guess I’m just a little more cynical than you about how often that actually happens… 🙂 It’d be great if you were right, though! Not with Carol (which I like only moderately), necessarily, but in general.
Absolutely. The DGA IS quite hard to predict right now, and whoever wins will get a big boost. If it’s The Big Short or Spotlight, it will be a boost for BP AND BD. If it’s Miller or Inarritu, it will be a boost for BD only, in my opinion.
Yup. The 12 nominations don’t mean anything in particular.
Yeah, I know. I just don’t get it.
Great minds think alike.
It would have earned what it has reaped?
My pleasure Julie! Let me know how it turns out 🙂
Gail, you are so right. Obviously, professionalism keeps me from going any further in explaining it, but you are SO right about the girl. Good idea about Saoirse.
Yes, I agree that the BFCA have their integrity. Remember they included TFA after they announced their nominations.
Thank you Julie- that’s so kind. I always think humor is the best medicine when we’re going through tough times- especially predicting the Oscars.
My readings say your Spelling Bee is going to be fun. Watch out for a female student who thinks she’s literally the Bee’s Knees. It’s all foggy, but something tells me there’s a girl in your class who wants to win this thing more then anybody else. And she might be dethroned in an upset. For one of the words in the challenge, have the students spell and pronounce Sairose Ronan’s name. Even I keep getting it wrong- oh!
Yes, I can see very much “Carol” winning BAFTA because it without a doubt the best film this year. Just because the US guilds and Oscars elbar-ed it doesn’t mean it wont. The best film are rewarded and this nonsense that BAFTA will just with the Oscars even if they think different is absurd. BAFTA is a different beast and they can and do break with the Oscars if they want to reward a different film. Last was a clear example of that. Anyway, why would BAFTA follow the Oscars shameful snubbing of minority films? “Carol” gives them a great opportunity to show it diversity and more importantly to reward the best film.
My point isn’t that a three-way split is unlikely; in fact, I think we pretty much all believe a split is a foregone conclusion at this point. My point is, when a three-way split does happen, the eventual Best Picture winner is never the SAG winner. Ergo, Spotlight has the lowest chance of taking BP out of all three Guild-winning films, statistically speaking. Of course these patterns can break at any time, but we still use them as barometers for predictions.
I have a feeling that the DGA is going with either McCarthy or McKay. I think they will reward one of the industry-consensus Best Picture frontrunners over Miller (who deserves it IMHO, but whose film will not win Best Picture at the Oscars) or Inarritu (who just won last year, and with a better movie).
The SAG definitely does at least keep Spotlight in the hunt. If The Big Short had won Ensemble, I would probably be saying Spotlight’s chances took a deadly blow.
That would be a bizarre complaint, given that the first two Mad Max films were very well received and have been highly influential in the action genre, and “The Road Warrior” is widely considered a classic. Even those directors who don’t personally care for the Mad Max series would concede that much, I’d think.
Agreed. Never forget “The Color Purple”…
Twenty isn’t that big a sample size, really — four splits in that time period means that they split three ways a full twenty percent of the time. This makes it unlikely but not genuinely shocking.
I was totally joking. 🙂
“They even said something like “the good guys win.” That puts it in direct contrast to The Big Short, where the bad guys definitely win, and pointedly so.How those two themes will play out with Oscar voters is a different story”
This quote from above by Sasha leapt out at me, crystallising further my sense that the Oscar race is between these two narrative/wordsmith pictures. Some other commenter reminded us that perhaps for this year, screenplay is such an integral part to the eventual winner with so few past BP winners not having a screenplay nominated. I would have easily predicted Spotlight as pure Academy content; but with wins for No Country, Hurt Locker, Departed and Birdman – the protoype for Oscar winning Best picture is not, thankfully, what it once was. PGA is a compelling victory; as is the large number of SAG voters. Even with visionary directors this year, the films with social conscience and the good triumphing is hard to resist. The Big Short has lots of stylistic flourishes, dynamic performances and is not, to my ears anyway, preachy.
As much as I’d like to see George Miller prevail; I don’t see it happening; nor The Revenant; despite its dozen nominations. What began as two, 2 horse races within one year, i think is reverting to just one pair of duelling American ensemble pieces with lots to say!
Ha 🙂 No disrespect for teachers at all! I think the makeup of SAG makes it’s the best guild of all and the most honest! I believe this troll was trying to infer SAG was once somehow a guild of Barrymores or something. It’s always been a broad swatch of people who many of which once acted here or there. AFTRA added in currently working professionals all involved in the content delivery of TV, Radio and New Media (internet). If anything, the AFTRA contingent mostly takes their duties and privileges as union members seriously b/c they at some point fought for collective bargaining and fight for new contracts every 2-3 years. Membership means more to us than just a signifier that we “made it.” It’s about the unity and supporting one and other.
We want quality and standards and everyone I know took their SAG voter privileges pretty seriously.
GoldDerby also considers Miller the winner.
What you call “cheap gimmicks” I call “reminding us what sort of effluvia distracted us from our structural problems in 2005-07”
If either Miller or Iñárritu wins DGA, as seems likely, then we’re looking at a three-way split between PGA, DGA, and SAG. In the 20 years that all three Guilds have been handing out awards, there have only been four prior three-way splits:
2013
PGA: 12 Years A Slave / Gravity
DGA: Gravity
SAG: American Hustle
2004
PGA: The Aviator
DGA: Million Dollar Baby
SAG: Sideways
2001
PGA: Moulin Rouge!
DGA: A Beautiful Mind
SAG: Gosford Park
2000
PGA: Gladiator
DGA: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
SAG: Traffic
As you can see, whenever there is a three-way split, the SAG winner is *never* the ultimate Best Picture winner — it’s two for PGA and two for DGA. So BP is likely going to be between The Big Short and either Mad Max/Revenant, and I’d give the edge to TBS just because both Mad Max and The Revenant are missing too much: namely a SAG Ensemble nomination and a Screenplay nomination. (No movie since Braveheart has won BP without the former, and no movie since Titanic has win BP without the latter.)
Also in the 20 years that all three Guilds have been handing out awards, only twice has SAG correctly predicted the BP when both PGA and DGA got it wrong: in 2005 when SAG picked Crash and PGA/DGA went for Brokeback Mountain, and in 1998 when SAG picked Shakespeare In Love and PGA/DGA went for Saving Private Ryan. Coincidentally (or not?) those two films are largely considered the worst BP winners in recent Oscar history. If Spotlight pulls off the same feat this year, it will likely be remembered with the same sentiment within a few years, imho.
tl;dr — I don’t think the SAG Award did anything to boost Spotlight’s chances, that’s just wishful thinking. The race is in exactly the same shape it was 24 hours ago.
This year?
Its a joke when I think of Elba I still think of Stringer Bell. It’s the first thing I’ve seen him in.
I think DGA is between George Miller and Alejandro G. Inarritu.
Won*
Lincoln got 12 nominations and one 2 awards. I can see the same scenario for The Revenant, especially after Inarritu won 3 Oscars last year. Remember the Oscars are not the Emmys.
As long as “The Revenant” gets the ones that I care about I’ll be good with it: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Cinematography.
Anyway, as of now the DGA is a toss up. All these conversations and different VALID viewpoints are making my head spin. It’s all about which theory would be true at this point. All I know is that the DGA is where it’s at right now. Whoever wins will get a tremendous boost.
“BAFTA seems to like “Carol” and BOS where they’ve been shutout completely, so I don’t know what they will do.”
I doubt it’ll be Carol or Bridge of Spies. But it would definitely be interesting.
Truer film critics are LAFC, NFCC and NSFC. I would think BFCA is a bit more corrupted, now that their awards show is televised (the bigger stars you can get on your show, the better the ratings). BFCA now serves more as an Oscar prediction than critics going with their heart, not as bad as GG of course.
“But getting 12 – pretty much the exact 10 that “Mad Max: Fury Road” got plus the two acting Noms screams something.”
I agree that Inarritu is probably a bit underestimated, but the 12 nominations thing, to me, only screams ‘a lot of losses.’ 🙂
I believe ”The Revenant” is a ”towering masterpiece,” but I know it’s not ”undeniable” because folks like you deny it. Ha-ha-ha! … And I agree: Stats are true … until they’re not.
Both Steven Spielberg (The Color Purple) and Ron Howard (Apollo 13) won DGA without Oscars nominations
In a just world, Miller would easily win the DGA on his way to an Oscar. Miller would also be an excellent choice, but that seems so unlikely. There is no great outrage for Miller’s snub like in 2012 when Affleck failed to get a nomination (even though Bigelow’s snub was more glaring). My guess is that DGA will honor the more obvious/flashier direction of McKay over McCarthy. That’s just my guess. I’m no Gail Withers.
And I agree with you 100%. Inarritu should be winning his Oscar for ”The Revenant,” not ”Birdman.” (Last year’s Oscar should’ve gone to Linklater.) But Inarritu wouldn’t be the first director to win (or lose) for the ”wrong” movie. He’s still an Oscar-winning director.
I think you’re right. Larson has been a critics’ darling since ”’Short Term 12.” Their slew of awards gave her the momentum she needed to be the front-runner. I still think Saoirse Ronan gave the most fully realized performance, but I hope that she and Emory Cohen win an Oscar someday.
I see to my delight against my expectation fellow awards season aggrieved film buffs that as i assumed (but never took for granted) most of u agree with me great
There are so many ways this could go. At this point it’s better just to wait and see. I am thinking Inarritu but it could very well be Miller, McKay or McCarthy. Let’s just wait it out.. 😉
I am just loving this because we are going back to the times where Direcrorial Achievement = Best Picture! Those were the days!
Another thing – and this one I read or heard somewhere (so take it with a grain of salt) – some directors were complaining about Miller – as if to say that it took him finally on the 3rd or 4th try to finally make a great Mad Max film. I think that’s kinda stupid but that’s what some directors think.
The strange this is that “Spotlight” is much more an Oscar movie than TBS. It is about real heroes which stay true to the subject and doesn’t go cheap gimmick to make it more exciting. TBS is a not about heroes, in fact, far from it and uses gimmicks to try to hold our attention and to amuse us. It’s about who the DGA wants to honour. Do they a want to honour great director like Scott even though he’s not nominated for an Oscar? That seems very unlikely and the only one DGA winner not nominated for an Oscar I can think of is Ben Affleck, who had big support behind him and his film after the Oscar snub. Do they want honour IGA a second year in a row for a film that’s ambitious but ultimately fails to reach such a level that there’s no denying he should be rewarded. TR is not even as good as “Birdman” which was more critically acclaimed, so there’s no need to reward him again. Do they want honour Miller for incredible achievement and for making such a film in latter years of his career? It’s possible but they don’t recognise great works. Do you know which film they honoured Martin Scorsese for? “The Departed”. I think they will most go with BP winner and that means Mckay or McCarthy. My prediction is about that three main film awards(Oscar, BAFTA and GG) will have three different winner is becoming more than just a possibility, it looks more probable than not. Since there is no real consensus, I think every award show going their own way. GG went gave BP and BD to TR because they missed out on the “Birdman” bandwagon, BFCA gave BP to “Spotlight” and BD to Miller as they most critics have all award season and PGA went for TBS and then SAG went for “Spotlight”. BAFTA seems to like “Carol” and BOS where they’ve been shutout completely, so I don’t know what they will do. Without any consensus I can see BAFTA giving all their to “Carol” or finally recognising one of their own, by giving BD Ridly Scott and then giving BP to “TBS” or “Spotlight”.
If we were looking at this year in a vacuum (if Inarritu hadn’t won last year), he would be the runaway favorite. Everyone is having a pause because it has never happened to win back to back DGAs. If “The Revenant” had come in with 8 or 9 Nominations (as everyone pretty much expected), we wouldn’t be having this conversation. But getting 12 – pretty much the exact 10 that “Mad Max: Fury Road” got plus the two acting Noms screams something. What “Mad Max: Fury Road” has in its favor is the Best Film Editing (it will most likely win that Oscar) and a bunch of technicals (Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyle, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing). What “The Revenant” has is the Best Actor and most probably the Best Cinematography Oscars. We’ll see if that’s powerful enough to overcome the technical brilliance of “Mad Max: Fury Road”. Plus, another thing – “Mad Max: Fury Road” is a genre film and a sequel – so that’s a strike against it.
Heck even “Raiders of The Lost Ark” couldn’t win Spielberg neither the DGA or the Oscar.. Just looked at that..
PS at BOP we are all pulling for The Big Short and I’m betting it will be voted our favorite movie of the year later this month.
“shorting the Big Short” – HA! I see what you did there. Love it.
So McKay wins DGA… Yeah, the stats don’t really support it, but they didn’t really support McKay getting both DGA and Oscar nominations in the first place, so it’s doubtful whether they are likely apply to The Big Short this year, or whether it’s to be an anomalous year in that category. I could pretend I know what’ll win, but I don’t. 🙂 The DGA will need to clarify it for me.
“The 12 Oscar Nominations should trump the 10”
Only if you’re really, really optimistic and looking for any reasons to back up your prediction… I don’t think there’s a valid stat there. There might be, but I’m way too tired right now to check.
You are making a good point. It will be either Miller or Inarritu.. I’m hoping for the back to back DGA win. The 12 Oscar Nominations should trump the 10 but we’ll see.
1)George Miller
The last time someone won Best Director at the Oscars without a Bafta Nomination was in 2004. It also happened quite a few times in the 1980s, ex: 1989 and 1988.
Regarding BAFTA, you can’t use really use any of their historical stats from before 2000 because the BAFTAs were held *after* the Oscars during that time. This key fact always trips up a lot of people I know trying to build fancy stats models (like the ones I have for Statsgasm) to predict the Oscars.
Oh, baloney. Both you and I and actually Sasha know that We ALL have an agenda. Don’t get me started on that. We all try to twist and turn all the stats and everything in order to push the movie that we (I) want the most to win. So don’t tell me that Sasha is impartial because we all know she is not.. That’s what so great about her anyway. 😉
Very good summary! Will save for future reference. Thanks!
“We simply don’t know how close it was between The Big Short and #2, but I would bet that it wasn’t a landslide.”
Absolutely. I think the SAG win confirms this, because it would have been EXTREMELY easy for them to just give it to The Big Short, had they (the industry, overall) really loved it by far the best of the BP nominees. Movies they love that much tend to win the Triple Crown, or at least the PGA and DGA, if they’re not necessarily ensemble movies, that much. (In my opinion, of course – we can never know what they really think, because we can’t know the final counts.)
“So what I am wondering now is if factors, such as the differences between the fields at PGA and AMPAS (Ex Machina, Compton, and Sicario OUT and Room IN) and in the make-up of the membership can have enough of an effect to produce a different BP winner than at PGA. And I think that it can. Would I bet on that? No way in hell. But I think that if it can happen, now would be one of those years. There is always the chance that voters see what won at PGA and decide to “back a winner” instead of what they might have otherwise ranked above it (stupid, but you know this probably happens too often). If that happens, The Big Short wins again on Oscar night regardless of these other factors.”
Beautifully said! I agree with everything 100%. I love your posts, Dane M! 🙂 You’re definitely one of my favorite posters here – at least from among the stats crowd.
I confess, I´m not “stats obessed” like most of you guys are, so I´m not even trying to make a case against the PGA win. 😉
A precursor is a precursor is a precursor (would Gertrude Stein say, if she´d been an Oscar aficionada)… But the Academy votes for what they like best. We´ll see. All I´m gonne say is this: If “The Big Short” finally wins Best Picture to my huge surprise, it will be an indicator that their bias against satires has finally been overcome.
Well, I’d put him above Abrahamson and Spielberg, at least, because I don’t like either of those movies, overall, and certainly am unimpressed by the directing. I’d probably put him above Scott as well, because the little (compared to the others) he has to do he does, in my opinion, absolutely perfectly. But, yeah, given how understated the movie is, it’s hard even for me, a die-hard Spotlight fan, to argue that he’s in the top 3… My winner (from the nominees) would be Miller. Abrams would definitely have been in the discussion for the no.1 spot as well (again, for me), had he been nominated.
I’m not a Big Short hater either. Far from it. It’s in my top 20 for now, and could even go up with re-watches.
It’d be almost unbearable if Spotlight somehow managed to lose Best Screenplay. Let’s hope that’s never ever happening, in any of the alternate universes! 🙂
Yeah, the more I hear about it the more I realize this is a serious problem for Spotlight’s chances… What can you do?! Worse trends have been broken, still, so who knows? But since the stats confirm it, so far, it’s likely Spotlight won’t win BP, indeed.
I love Spotlight, so that’s clear, but between The Big Short and The Revenant, I’d take the former, right now. Re-watches could change that, though, since it’s pretty close between them for me already…
I wouldn’t call GG film critics. Some of their choices down the years have been worse than the Oscars. GG go with what’s popular and they have made their name kowtowing to big stars. The real critics are those who don’t mix with celebrities and choose what they think is the best film. LAFC, NFCC, BFCA are the true film critics. Critics don’t normally go for the safe film and more edgy and risky films that aren’t liked by the Academy.
Never said it will never happen. Stats aren’t absolute as we just saw with Elba’s well-deserved win. If the facts change and the writing is on the wall, then I update my assessments accordingly. Like any reasonable person does.
That said, nothing I’ve seen yet has given me any reason to believe Iñartitu is going to repeat. Unlike some of you, I don’t believe The Revenant is an undeniable, towering masterpiece.
Yep, when it’s really close–like this race is perceived to be–that’s when there’s a possibility of the PGA apple cart being overturned. We had the benefit of knowing just how close the race between Gravity & 12YAS slave was because we got the rare tie at PGA. We simply don’t know how close it was between The Big Short and #2, but I would bet that it wasn’t a landslide. No one thought Room could get a Best Director nod when it wasn’t even nominated at PGA or DGA, but it happened. AMPAS isn’t the exact same beast as PGA.
So what I am wondering now is if factors, such as the differences between the fields at PGA and AMPAS (Ex Machina, Compton, and Sicario OUT and Room IN) and in the make-up of the membership can have enough of an effect to produce a different BP winner than at PGA. And I think that it can. Would I bet on that? No way in hell. But I think that if it can happen, now would be one of those years. There is always the chance that voters see what won at PGA and decide to “back a winner” instead of what they might have otherwise ranked above it (stupid, but you know this probably happens too often). If that happens, The Big Short wins again on Oscar night regardless of these other factors.
Sixel isn’t even a member of ACE and she JUST won
go watch batman begins first 30 mins or interstellar….they shot in iceland and it was difficult there as well….film people know that revenant isnt only movie with difficulty…..lot of movies shot in remote places are tough…this difficult shoot is their oscar campaign and i see you are a victim of it…i just hope oscar voters are not like you
revenant had leo,hardy,gleeson,poulter and indians..it had shot at nominating for sag…but they didnt…..pga told f u..so revenant has those -ve…only + is its safe movie to win oscar a movie that isnt so white and speaks about natives blah blah
because its defending champion innaritu and leo…..leo finally getting oscar push…troubled shoot bullshit
they even put sorkin and quentin….they thought star directoes would get nominated along with critical darling…so they put carol,spotlight,scott,innaitu and miller at globes
No, not true. So why the revenant a film that opened late in December get many critics awards nomination for Best Director?
popular movie…won critics awards and national board of review…they knew ten slots will include mad max at oscars
Spotlight fan here too (but also not a Big Short hater like some seem to be). Spotlight is just the superior ensemble, so I’m glad it rightfully took this along with the BFCA. A very nice consolation prize would be for McCarthy & Singer to win an Oscar for their screenplay.
and mind you big short was decided for awards run in late octoberso lot of critics groups didnt even evaluate….critics have a strange way of uplifting a underdog movie and it that movie about journalists they see themselves and they uplift it even more
Not true. They count because they’re job has always been to predict the Oscar. And if that was the case, why they chose Mad Max for Best Director instead of Spotlight?
DGA Winner I mean.
golden globes are rigged this year in favour of leo oscar win mania and iou for innaritu…..critics are biased towards spotlight..so those dont count…
I think the “Best Cinematography” is a very underrated stat for who wins BD this past decade/preferential ballot. They don’t tend to think “Best Director” if the film doesn’t look like a big directorial achievement. They might give you best picture like Argo, but the Director will go to Ang Lee and his fancy Life of Pi movie. In that case, it really would be between AGI and Miller.
And another stat against Adam Mckay and Tom Mccarthy is that there has never been a Best Director winner without at least a GG win or a Critics Choice win.
Yes, i’m trying to proof that George Miller has a lot less against him than the other nominees.
do u think its due to 50k news reporters that spotlight won ? i mean film industry hate journalists because all these celebrity scandals are due to them….audio leaks etc…so they wont win in my opinion…how can film industry people say good job journalists? i dont remember any such reporter film being recognized in a big way…
This looks more like “the case against”, but whatever, it puts it favor of George Miller, so I’m all for it.
THE CASE FOR BEST DIRECTOR
1)George Miller
The last time someone won Best Director at the Oscars without a Bafta Nomination was in 2004. It also happened quite a few times in the 1980s, ex: 1989 and 1988.
2)Alejandro G. Inarritu
No Director has ever won DGA back to back, and the last time a Director won the Oscar back to back was 1949-1950.
When Joseph L. Mankiewicz won again in 1951 his film ‘All About Eve’ was the most awarded film of that year, winning 6 Oscars.
No Director has ever won an Oscar for Best Director back to back after winning 3 Oscars the year before.
3)Adam Mckay
“Only one director has won the DGA without first being nominated for Best Director at the Golden Globes since the Globes first had 5 nominees (1956) – George Roy Hill for The Sting.”
For the last 8 years and since the preferential ballot, there hasn’t been a Best Director winner without a cinematography guild nomination.
There has never been a Best Director winner without both Golden Globe nomination and Critics Choice nomination.
4)Tom Mccarthy
No Bafta nomination
No ACE Eddie Nomination
No ASC nomination
5)Lenny Abrahamson
No Bafta Nomination
No ACE Eddie Nomination
No Golden Globe Nomination
No Critics Choice Nomination
No ASC Nomination
No DGA Nomination
Right now, the stats are going towards George Miller.
I like Spotlight more than TBS.I pray either Spotlight or The Revenant wins..
I agree. I said “which it won’t get, sadly” with quite a bit of conviction. Him winning the DGA would make almost no sense. But you never know…
Yeah, but, on the other hand, the PGA winner does win the DGA as well, a lot. And there is a precedent, even if it’s 40 years ago. It’s not that clear. But, yeah, normally, we should see Miller (or Inarritu, maybe) win the DGA, and then McKay shouldn’t win the Oscar either. Which means no BP+BD for The Big Short. Which is interesting…
But I fear McKay will still pull off the DGA win… The Globes BD nomination stat IS a critics stat, after all. Those are much easier to break than guild stats.
“and Truth had nowhere the momentum that Spotlight did.”
Because it’s not as well liked. 🙂 Despite also being a journalism movie. That was my point. They’re not going to just award any journalism movie because it’s half decent, or just pretty good. Spotlight won over critics (together with MMFR) because it’s really, really good (at least in their opinion – and mine), not because it’s a journalism movie.
“The momentum for Spotlight was not critic created”
In the beginning it was… Unlike The Big Short.
That’s true Saoirse Ronan should be winning everything. But life is like that.
I disagree about some of those other films but I’m right with you on Spotlight, it’s a well made film and I probably wouldn’t change a thing about it but there’s still nothing about it that’s great. Great is not the absence of bad to me, it still needs to do something special in order to make me stand up and take notice.
good stat.
Hey now, let’s not be disrespecting school teachers. I could do a mop commercial with the best of them, maybe even as well as J. Law. (lol) I thought the SAG winners were great, but I was underwhelmed with the OITNB love. In hindsight, I’m not surprised that Spotlight won over Big Short because SAG always seems to be one step behind. I find Downton Abbey and OITNB so tired by this point. Maybe it’s just me. They’re alright, I guess. I watched all the seasons of OITNB but couldn’t get into Downton Abbey after the character died in a car crash. I am not saying who in case people are still binge-watching prior seasons.
Yeah, but Brokeback Mountain had no editing nomination. This time, it’s Spotlight, the SAG winner, that has no ACE nomination… So Spotlight probably needs the DGA (which it won’t get, sadly) in order to set up an unprecedented situation (DGA+SAG vs. PGA) to try and make up for that big disadvantage. Which still might not be enough…
I was talking about Critics prizes and Truth had nowhere the momentum that Spotlight did. The momentum for Spotlight was not critic created but it was a well off Oscar contender on its own. I prefer Spotlight above and beyond Big Short as a film and as an ensemble but yunnow it is hardly known beyond this circle but thats most Oscar movies
You are so funny. I really enjoy your posts. Will you please predict how well my spelling bee will run on Tuesday so I know what to expect? Thank you so much. (I teach seventh grade Lang. Arts and run the spelling bee.)
So that I’m not totally off topic, I wanted to ask. What was the voting window for SAG? I wondered if some of the results could be a pushback against the Academy’s lack of African-American nominees. The Elba win seems to be good for Stallone; in a divided year like the Waltz year, he has a better shot. If someone had won SAG and BAFTA, they would’ve supplanted Stallone as the frontrunner. I feel like Bale should’ve won here, and it may be the sign of Spotlight returning to frontrunner status. If Big Short were really that strong, it should’ve won ensemble and supporting actor.
I’m not – even a little bit. I’ve been rooting for Spotlight since day 1, and even earlier. But I know what’s coming and I accept it… 🙂
Brie’s been on a MAJOR charm offensive since the film’s debut. There’s an awards writer I follow from the Akron area, and she even talked to him at Telluride in support of the film. If she’s taking time on a flight to charm the pants off the guy from Copley, Ohio, you can be sure she’s campaigning pretty darn hard. Critics gush, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, plus there’s a feeling that she should have been nominated two years back for Short Term 12. Also, when in doubt, pick the one that the old horndogs of the Academy would most want to “be with” in the biblical sense. (She gets on my nerves, which is why my tone is as it is. I wanted Saoirse to win.) Brie also benefits from the cutesiness of her relationship with Jacob Tremblay, as evidenced last night at the awards. I’m kinda over it.
When they were showing nominees for actress and Saoirse Ronan came on it was just too clear that she should be one the winning everything for Brooklyn.Why is it that Brie is winning? I don’t get it..Saoirse was miles better than her…Why Why Why?
We went through this. The stats do not support an Adam Mckay win.
The stats do not support an Adam Mckay win.
You are such a Big Short stan..But that’s fine…There is something about the Revenant in that it just stands out..It is daring,raw,beautiful to behold,the actors from Leo to Will were all on their A game.The Revenant should not be underestimated..
If he meant the public, he should have said the public. The way he said it, it sounds like he’s saying everybody.
“Also journalists giving prizes to a film about how journalists are integral seems like a given.”
Plenty of other well-reviewed journalism movies have received a whole lot less love in the past than Spotlight has. Probably most or even all of them. Also, if it’s such a given, then how come Truth isn’t getting anywhere near as much love, for example? Clearly, it has something to do with the movie’s quality as well.
And, besides, SAG, at least, is hardly all journalists.
Look have mckay and mccarthy established themsel8es enovgh shaped and defined and redefined holly wood to the xtent that SPIELBERG, SCOTT OR EVEN GEORGE MILLER has before? Answer NO and did these three veteran directors damn well win as director and producers at the oscars ? At the age and l vl of far lesser xperience that mckay and mccarthy are? NO therefore standards sh6uld be the same as it was before regarding which ensemble, producer and director wim the guild!
That cast doesn’t look too diverse. They should be disqualified.
With respect that cause u need to take u time to read my posts most others do li even thought i dnt xpect that unless of course english is not u first language that why i suggest take u time tke cre
Maybe he means the public who are only aware of Spotlight as BP front runner and it is not something they passionately want to win as much as say The Revenant winning ? Also journalists giving prizes to a film about how journalists are integral seems like a given.
I mean you just cannot deny the amount of campaigning Big Short has done and has Brad Pitt as producer and these things matter a lot. As there is no out and out very good Oscar film this year it does not seem implausible they will look into other factors
That would literally be the worst.
OMG, your number 1 and 2 are exactly the same as mine 😉
Whatever it is, people are clearly passionate about the movie. It’s statistically pretty much impossible for it to be winning so much without that being the case. Whether it’s for this or that reason, it’s something. So one CAN be passionate about it. No matter for what reason.
Besides, I know why I am so passionate about it, and it has little to do with journalism – because it’s (in my opinion) a perfectly written, perfectly executed movie that tells an extremely interesting (to me) story in a completely engaging way from start to finish, and makes me genuinely care about the characters, to boot. Great score, brilliant acting, great editing… it has everything except great cinematography and special effects, or makeup, or costume design, or stuff like that (which would, in fact, be completely out of place in it, if it had them, no matter how subtle it tried to be about it), none of which ever has any particular impact on how I evaluate a movie, ultimately (the cinematography has the most impact for me, out of these, but I’m never going to not love a movie primarily because of its great cinematography, nor hate one because of its bad cinematography), but holding that against a movie just because it doesn’t tell that kind of a story is completely wrong, in my opinion. Basically, by doing that, you’re discouraging these kinds of movies from being made for the big screen – because you’re saying nobody should ever be passionate enough about them for them to be taken seriously as cinema. If that’s your point of view – fine! I can understand that. But there are some of us who DO want these movies to be made (I know I was extremely excited about this movie well before I first saw it, because I knew it was my kind of movie, given everything I’ve read, and, sure enough, it even exceeded my expectations), and maybe shitting all over that desire isn’t the most amazing and sophisticated thing to do in this world… I don’t know…
You have no idea how happy I am that the critics have embraced this wonderful movie the way they have!
Yes, like the winner this year
I love how I just changed my DGA prediction twice in the space of just a few lines… which goes to show just how unclear it all is. 🙂
Oh, sorry – I just meant for BP. 🙂 I’m a bit tired by this point… No, the DGA will likely go to Miller, and then he’ll win the Oscar for BD as well. But that’s it. (It is interesting, though, that if McKay loses the DGA, the stats say The Big Short is very unlikely to win BP+BD at the Oscars. Which kind of messes up my notion that The Big Short is the sort of movie that gets both… so I guess McKay probably is winning the DGA, after all. That makes more sense than the other thing. Unless the DGA=BP or BD stat breaks. Which it could, for sure.)
I agree that the Revenant is very unlikely to win BP and BD (and I’m a huge fan) but I also agree that Sasha has consistently played down its chances even though she loved the film, because she has pushed TBS.
When Gurus O’Gold had Revenant at #2 on back of GG, 12 noms and BO buzz, Revenants chances were played down here. And that’s Sasha’s prerogative.
BAFTA WILL be VERY interesting this year, no question about it. Way more telling than last year, when we pretty much knew Birdman had it, with the Triple Crown in the bag already… Unless McKay wins the DGA, The Big Short kind of needs at least one other BP win besides the PGA… it would be extremely strange for it to win PGA and nothing else, and still get the Oscar. Not at all impossible, maybe not even improbable, by now, but definitely unusual.
then maybe we are looking at BAFTA
“But if AGI wins then we dont know shit”
Speak for yourself! 🙂
“In my view, it´s still The Revenant vs. Spotlight for Best Picture.”
Never has been and still isn’t. Never will be, either. (It’s probably between The Big Short and The Big Short by now, but maaaybe Spotlight is still hanging in there…)
“Statistics are fine and all, but in the end they don´t vote with a calculator.”
But we get plenty of strong clues as to how they’ll vote. Every year.
but arent they recently giving best director to directorial achievements ?? like gravity and life of pi..moreover academy is full of old guys and miller is old guy and he made an action movie that even younger directors(like nolan) couldn’t have made…so they might give him..only down side is its a sequel…..miller at DGA is bigger possibility than mckay..i guess people are getting sick of revenant hard production bs…so they might snub innaritu at dga…i believe the race will be interesting till oscar night for best picture with director a lock for mostly miller or mckay…maccarthy’s movie is well written and not directed….
DGA should clear things out. If McCarthy or McKay wins then their films will win BP and BD at Oscars. If Miller wins then he takes Director at oscars and Big Short wins BP (PGA>SAG). But if AGI wins then we dont know shit
In my view, it´s still The Revenant vs. Spotlight for Best Picture. If Miller wins the DGA (which is quite possible), we are looking at a split year, because Mad Max won´t win Best Picture – it would be shocking, it´s too much outside their comfort zone.
And that´s also, as I mentioned before, my argument against The Big Short: The Academy usually is not into satires, a satire hardly ever wins for Best Picture.
Statistics are fine and all, but in the end they don´t vote with a calculator.
ooh i see that your admiration for innaritu comes from your love for leo…ooh i love you europeans…i know you europeans love leonardo dicaprio sooo much….if you like leo soo much do something else with that love something to do with your hand and other body part and leave the predictions to people who are impartial to movie stars and directors……you are the kind of people who say star wars/avengers need to win oscar…so please dont pollute this chat board with you cheap childish agendas and favoritisms….the way you are sarcastic about sasha’s predictions(which are without agenda) makes me sick
“I don’t quite see how one could be passionate about Spotlight as a film”
Clearly a lot of people are, though, given how many BP prizes it’s won.
I agree. Now that Spotlight’s in it until the end, we might as well get the full experience!
So happy for Spotlight. A terrific ensemble, for sure. Here’s hoping the DGA does the right thing too and goes for Miller. Mad Max: Fury Road, besides winning all those critics (much like Spotlight) is one for the ages and Miller delivered in spades.
T.
On my ranked list of the year’s films, the Picture nominees appear thus:
Mad Max: Fury Road – #1
The Big Short – #2
Bridge of Spies – #7
The Revenant – #8
The Martian – #11
Brooklyn – #13
Room – #15
Spotlight – #35
That doesn’t make Spotlight a bad film. It’s a good film. I’ve been devotedly following the Oscars from 2011 onwards, and it’s easily the best weakest nominee to date.
I just keep coming back to my basic judgment of it: it’s very good as history, but only fair as drama. I figured The Big Short was beginning to gather steam because it was a film you could feel passionately about–I don’t quite see how one could be passionate about Spotlight as a film, even if one was passionate about the journalistic ideals which pervade it.
I’m not upset about the SAG win because it was actually well-deserved: the ensemble was stronger than any individual performance (damn shame they didn’t cite Neal Huff), and arguably, purely as an acting ensemble, it surpasses The Big Short. But in every other department, it seems to me the lesser film. I’ve seen both films twice (indeed, I’ve seen all of the nominees save Bridge and Brooklyn at least twice), and my opinion on Spotlight remained about the same, while my opinion on The Big Short grew from slightly baffled pleasure to sober delight.
The Big Short, to me, has cinematic invention, vitality, and virtuosity to complement the importance of its subject. Spotlight simply does not. And for me, that’s the difference between a film I respect and a film I love.
But it would be so much more fun if they go another way, maybe go with Miller, and then we’re still none the wiser after DGA. Suspense until the very end!
The most likely outcome by far.
There’s another reason why there are so few back-to-back winners: The logistics of shooting the film and the time it takes to get it ready for release. I looked through the archives of the DGA. The competitive DGA Award was first given out in 1949, and no one has ever won back-to-back DGA’s. In fact, there are only TWO directors who won the DGA and returned the next year with another nomination. The first is: Elia Kazan. He won for ”On the Waterfront” (1955) and returned to contend with ”East of Eden.” The second is: Alejandro G. Inarritu. He won for ”Birdman” and has returned to contend with ”The Revenant.” He was already filming ”The Revenant” the previous fall and really had to race to finish shooting it this summer, and complete editing it in mid-November. Inarritu already has beat the odds to some degree. Few directors make it this far. Sure, the stats would show that his odds are long to repeat. But just because no one’s ever done it, doesn’t mean that someone will NEVER do it. Until last night, no SAG winner had won without an Oscar nomination.
“The only hope for Spotlight remains that the producers like The Big Short more than the rest of the Academy. :)”
Oh – or that it was just really close, of course. There’s probably a slightly better chance of that.
“In four years the films that did not select either #1 or #2 tended to go for #2 at a higher percentage than #1 in their final round of balloting.”
Based on the results in my simulation last year, I’d call that the Birdman-Whiplash syndrome… Though I assume you, personally, would never ever call it that, given that it contains the word ‘Birdman’. 🙂
Cool! Thanks a lot! That’s consistent with my findings (see below) – about 50%, maybe slightly more for the first round leader (we’ll see how this year goes.)
Yeah, the initial leader definitely loses way more often than I thought it did. Hmmm… This definitely explains better the drastic increase in the PGA’s percentages of late. Hard to argue with this point. The only hope for Spotlight remains that the producers like The Big Short more than the rest of the Academy. 🙂 Slim hope, indeed…
OK, I’ve checked what I could (my simulations for the years for which I saved the details, and the AD simulations I saved on my computer) and it’s a lot closer than I thought. Only 60-70% of the time (there are some unclear cases, like three movies tied for the lead after the first round, or the final two being tied one time – both in my simulations) does the initial leader win. The switches are mostly from the simulations at AD (so, the larger the numbers, I guess). But always between the top two. A movie ranked third or worse after the first round has never won.
OK, for the 6 years we have done the preferential ballot 3 out of 6 years first round #1 and #2 switched in the end.
2009 – Switch: Hurt Locker #1 lost to Inglourious Basterds #2.
2010 – Social Network lead Black Swan throughout
2011 – Switch: Tree of Life #1 lost to The Artist #2
2012 – Switch: Argo #1 lost to Zero Dark Thirty #2
2013 – 12 Years a Slave led Gravity for all but one round. This year was extremely close.
2014 – Boyhood led Birdman throughout
Now, consider those films that did not select either #1 or #2 in the first round of voting. When they wound up voting for either #1 or #2, in four of the six years they went for #2 at a higher percentage. Last year the last round split (of non-BH/BM first round voters) was nearly equal between Boyhood (51.6%) and Birdman (48.4%).
Usually the more prolific cast, the better with SAG ensemble. Though Slumdog Millionaire won that same prize despite all those no name child actors (lucky kids got to go to the Oscars).
Yeah, that’s true, I also seem to remember The Help being at least among the top favorites for the SAG that year, if not, perhaps, THE top favorite. I’m not sure, though.
Cool!
If you want, can you check when you get home – whenever you feel like it and you have time, of course – how often the movie with the most 1st places after the first round also won at the end? I’ll check it myself, if there is a way to retrieve the links to the results of all of your simulations (I’ve only been on AD for 3 years, so I don’t have them all saved) – just let me know, if there’s a way! Thanks! I’ve always been curious about this one…
Yeah. We all knew back then The Help was going to win SAG ensemble because of its cast, but not Best Picture Oscar because of the stuff I mentioned above.
Just got back from the post-SAG awards parties and I kept trying to convince everybody there that they’ve all been fooled! I told them that Spotlight and The Big Short weren’t winning squat at the Oscars- it’s all about The Martian. I won’t mention names, but an older producer in his 70s who’s made a lot of money for big films laughed at me horridly when I told him my readings.
“Honey, you’re about as loopy as my wife! And I don’t let her watch any of my movies ’cause she belongs in the kitchen, where most women should. You don’t know a damn thing about Hollywood or how the voting systems work.” He cackled and took a swig of his brandy before I could get a word in edgewise. What a nasty man- I predict he will croak soon.
Anyways the OscarsSoWhite issue is no joke! Idris’s win tonight at SAG proves just that – and my NEW readings tell me there are going to be not one, but 2 write-in votes for the winners. You can laugh all you want- but Elba is the first actor in HISTORY to win the SAG with no Oscar nomination. And it’s because voters know they’re guilty of ignoring black actors in the past. His win tonight was great, as we never see black people win these things.
NEW OSCAR READINGS–
Best Picture: The Martian
Best Director: Ridley Scott, The Martian (Write-In Vote)
Best Actor: Matt Damon, The Martian
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Carol
Best Supporting Actor: Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (Write-In Vote)
Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara, Carol
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Martian
Best Original Screenplay: Straight Outta Compton
Honorary Oscar: Spike Lee (Which Will Be Announced LIVE!!! Spike Lee has agreed to show up and accept this award to honor all black actors and filmmakers who never have won before).
Exactly:)
I told you the SAG sure does like The Wire.
Yes once proud name, where the school teacher who did a mop commercial in 1978 remains in SAG because once you get your card you pay your dues and keep it.
SAG is probably the one guild that most represents a real slice of America with a lot less gender and racial bias. Which is something of which they actually should be proud.
I’m not at my computer, but I do recall that the first year we did the preferential ballot in 2009, it came down to Hurt Locker, Avatar, and Inglourious Basterds. Hurt Locker lead until the final round when Surged ahead.
I’ve been meaning to ask: could you check how often the leader after the first round of voting wins in the preferential simulations you’ve run for Awards Daily? I’m curious how many different winners the preferential gives, compared to the old system. I remember from my own simulations that the first round leader won most of the time, but not always.
“PGA has the preferential ballot where SAG has plurality. We have no idea how the SAG voter would vote between the front runners—Big Short, Spotlight, Mad Max, and The Revenant—because they were not presented with that choice. With PGA, all four were included.”
Yeah, but you have to figure, given all other clues on offer this Oscar season, that The Big Short and Spotlight would still be the finalists in a preferential with SAG, even had they nominated MMFR and The Revenant too. It just makes sense, at least to me.
“Who: The percentage of SAG’s membership that overlap with AMPAS is significantly smaller than PGA’s overlap. SAG includes AFTRA which consists of many journalists. Between Spotlight and Big Short, which are journalists going to gravitate to more—the one that shows journalists in a quest for the truth and are ultimately rewarded for saving the day, or the other one where the only journalist who puts his personal finances and professional reputation ahead of investigating the truth. I’m sure that there are many of AFTRA who voted for TBS, but I would bet that the majority voted for Spotlight.”
Yup. That’s a good argument. Still, it’s not like it’s 100% clear, or even close to it. We need more clues, I would say.
“What: SAG votes on Best Ensemble. They do not vote on Best Film. This is why the SAG Ensemble is approximately 50% when it comes to predicting Oscar success.”
Yes, but when it’s a genuine contender winning SAG Ensemble, the percentage gets a lot closer to 70% in a hurry… which is close to the PGA’s overall record. (This makes sense because when it’s a strong contender the likelihood of it also being their favorite movie of the year increases significantly.) And, again, SAG almost single-handedly predicts the most unlikely winners (when otherwise looking at the stats) in recent history, so clearly it CAN push an already strong contender towards a win. Maybe not with the preferential. That’s not happened yet. This is, perhaps, one argument against Spotlight that doesn’t get mentioned as often as it should (only Sasha has said it, once or twice, that I can remember.) But, again, we can’t be sure… (Though – see my question above!)
“I still think that The Big Short is strongly in the lead.”
I completely agree, as you may have read by now.
He did also Gangs of New York and The Aviator which while good, not the same level as Departed.
There are a few other ACE nominees and winners that aren’t ACE members.
Oh, well that certainly makes a difference
“Now, onto the DGA. I just “love” how Sasha continues to ignore Inarritu for the DGA. Literally just ignore him. But if you think about all the Directors in the race, he literally has the strongest case. Since Sasha LOVES to rely on the stats, let’s just look at them:
1. Alejandro G. Inarritu – Oscar/BAFTA/DGA/BFCA/GG Winner
2. George Miller – Oscar/DGA/BFCA Winner/GG
3. Adam McKay – Oscar/DGA/BAFTA
4. Tom McCarthy – Oscar/DGA/BFCA/GG”
Inarritu can definitely win. I don’t think he will, because I believe way more in the BFCA and the majority of the critics prizes than I do the make-up Globes, and because of the back-to-back DGA stat – which is probably Sasha’s reason for not mentioning Inarritu. I think Miller is the most likely, by a hair, then McKay, then probably Inarritu (because, to me, the back-to-back thing, while important, isn’t a deal-breaker, as I’m not entirely sold on the causality in this particular case), in third, but definitely not as strong as those other two.
“So if all of this happens, you really think that it can’t and won’t take both “Spotlight” and “The Big Short” down:”
Nope. Even if it wins DGA+BAFTA. I still don’t buy it. It would have won the PGA if it was winning BP. (Not to mention that it wouldn’t have been snubbed anywhere near as often as it has with major precursors.) But that’s just my opinion and it means nothing, of course.
“I think that his win will be powerful enough to overcome both the SAG and PGA wins.. We’ll see.”
I strongly disagree.
“So, it’s clear to me that the DGA will tell the whole story”
It might tell the whole story (if McKay wins), or a big part of the story (if McCarthy wins), or just a small part of it (if Miller/Inarritu win – making that director the favorite for BD, but still a heavy underdog for BP -, in which case we won’t know much more than we do now, except that The Big Short will look just that little bit more vulnerable, yet again.)
“This is true but this year is just of epic importance.”
That’s just your opinion. To me, and, probably, to Academy members, (especially given their genre biases), this years is no different from the average Oscar year, I’m sure…
“I will stick with my prediction certainly until the DGA and if I am wrong, I’m wrong. I would be curious to see what you’ll say if Inarritu does manage to win it again.”
I would advise you to prepare your concession speech on this one! 🙂 If you happen to be wrong, we’ll figure out what to say… We’ve been there before, as have all Oscar prognosticators. Not all predictions work out as planned, that’s for sure.
[I’m not mentioning any stats that haven’t already been brought up in this discussion.]
Scorsese’s win came AFTER he did several masterpieces. Inarritu came before his one sole masterpiece.
I agree with you a 100%. I didn’t like Birdman but I LOVED “The Revenant”. If AGI doesn’t win for the better film it would be a sad day. But certainly many directors have won Oscars for their lesser work (case in point – Scorsese).
Still yet to see a mention of the fact that spotlight probably didn’t receive an ACE nom because their editor isn’t a member of ACE…
I will pretend that Birdman is “great” for the sake of this argument (because it most definitely is not). Merit comes into play here, but so to does the narrative. The narrative for Inarritu winning is cut down because Birdman just won. Look at the Globe wins and the BAFTA nominations. Both of them went for The Revenant in a big way, but part of that is because they didn’t go for Birdman. The narratives for Big Short and Spotlight being relevant and important. George Miller’s long overdue narrative will help him. The Revenant and Inarritu do not have a compelling awards narrative like the others.
Don’t get me wrong. I wish Inarritu would have reversed the release order for Birdman and Revenant so that he could have received the credit for directing a truly amazing film. Instead he will be forever associated with that cinematic fraud of a film.
Wow! What a twist! I had no idea! 😉
This is true but this year is just of epic importance. You have 2 Great Films with Important contemporary messages: Spotlight (All The President’s Men) and The Big Short (Network) and also two amazing films: the sweeping survivalist frontier revenge epic The Revenant (Braveheart, Gladiator, Lawrence of Arabia, Titanic) and the technical juggernaut Mad Max: Fury Road (Star Wars: A New Hope). It’s an epic year with 4 absolutely stunning films and they are gunning against each other. I am going with the sweeping epic…
No, he just means it was the same kind of thing – he’s more comparing The Artist to The Big Short than The Help to Spotlight (the former, of course, being by far the more logical comparison.)
Basic Broadcast Critics are seeping into SAG, tarnishing its once proud name.
I am soo sick of the manner in which the Guilds treat themselves nowadays..people need to remember those who know the extensive film history before, during and current form of the Guilds..that it really really simple: Forget the formulas a second lets look at who SHOULD win let focus just on that for a moment- here is the point:
To much political correctness going around here…zero innovation in the SAG approach this year (the one exception is Idris Elba who given he only one of a unjust tiny amount of the extent of nominees who are black is very welcome he one that and his supporting roles in THOR were outstanding in there own way he was made for that role as he was no doubt for Beast of No nation- which to my chagrin once again the issue of me not being able to access a awards season film like ‘Beasts’ given it very limited venue and no count of releases- i mean heck, i more interested in seeing ‘Straight Outta Compton’ than ‘Spotlight.’ in fact i wager most people here care more for ‘The Big Short’ then ‘Spotlight’ why? it simple really..
Cos people look at the nominations- they look at the films they like the most of those who are oscar nominated this wards season. The Public more and more it must be said briefly and hence, less and less global media cover it in major news bulletins things like the SAG, THE DGA, PGA, etc..at LEAST back in the 90’s the Australian media news prime time bulletines provided coverage as part of their daily entertainment reports at this time of year..fast forward a decade ltr and since 2000 and the SAG/ DGA/ PGA is all but a memory on news bulletins,. Before you say ‘it a American thing’ think again..the debate and the totally unavoidable inexcusable controversy this years awards season has stupidly moronically mired itself in has global implications..with migration at record levels across Europe both legal and illegal, and with the scourge of terrorism further dvastating struggling African Communities- both in and out of Europe in THESE times wouldn’t it be appropriate to give the African American demographic its well earned dues? i mean their well earned recognition? that even from a background of poverty ripe for targets by terrorists and being used as recruiting stations for Daish’s murderous causes..that indeed some inspiring stories like ‘Compton’ and ‘Beast of no Nation’ and the accompanying i sure great performances to supprot these landmark films..that rightfully remind us the place and rights and challenges of blacks in our contemporary society? that they deserve the recognition that others have had plenty of (whites) and deserve to finally be on a level playing field?
SAG is one area, as well as the DGA ,PGA, that frankly, if many preferred favourite and equally discriminated against (i n terms of film genre ala Science themed films like ‘The Martian’) where even if i did not see it buty for it significance in these times and indeed cos of the massive public support amazingly of ‘Compton’ and ‘Beasts of no Nation’ even to me..despite my own love of a day or a century for that matter where science fiction, action adventure films finally get their dues but on the other hands films that are publicly revered and respected like ‘Compton’ and ‘No Nation’ as well as bringing minority groups to bring them into the public mainstream conciousness then of course i support them winning.
Public engagement + PAssion + Social discourse carried above and beyond a screen session times a film that lives up to the hype + critical acclaim and then.,. and then… a film that surpasses its ‘message’ to key into the public conciousness not just to reflect the issue of the day but to make audiences care enough to discuss it amongst their friends..THAT THE BUZZ THAT FRANKLY SPOTLIGHT SORELY LACKS from what i hearing..
So how great a Sag WINNER AND FILMS is Spotlight? well putting this formula together..it nowhere near as talked about as ‘Compton’ , ‘No Nation’ and the subsequent snubs..of black actors / producers which i wh9olly support the boycott against the academy’s monotonous ways. If Spotlight is sooo great as some claim it to be..why is it on present course, it not the favourite to win the WGA, it only won one let be clear here..in the 1990’s and prior for most of the life of SAG the ensemble winner at LEAST at LEAST won one actor or supporting actor SAG to go with the ensemble..tooo often nowadays only one happens over the other..there is no coherency in SAG’s total lack of logic or thinking when it comes to the big SAG ensemble. Why didn’t ‘Spotlight’ win the PGA? if it so great? and why isn’t the director the odds on favourite to win the DGA? by a LOOONG shot? only just from what i hear and read..
It appears even if Spotlight wins the DGA…at BEST come oscar time it has to win to be a respected revered long after it year it won type movie to be a worthwhile winner to be a memorable one rather han just another in a unjustified sporadic all too frequent chapter of oscars ‘spread the love embarass themselves greatly’ at their own expense mentality…but on present course and with Spotlight unable to breakthrough in the individual SAG acting awards..it beckons the question is if it happens which i predict unjustly unfairluy for far better contenders that do more for filmmaking as a whole which is WHAT no matter what oscars level of denial or those testimony that Sasha rightfully exposes the level of shamelessness in their ignorance and refusal to embrace universal real comprehensive changes in root and branch reform of their culture and attitudes..that for a fourth year or is it three? in the last 6-7 years we have a situation whre voting splits will see any win for Spotlight or possibly Big Short winning only 2 academy awards..i sorry if that happens that NOT good enough.
Truth that academy and the Guilds for that matter will refuse to accept and aCKNOWLEdge and is the reason that australian mainstream prime time news media does not give any coverage to the guilds so tightly supposedly entwined with the academy as they supposed to be (but nobody knows what the new rule of thumb is) face it everyone that academy has lost it way and now increasingly disturbingly the barometer meter based Guilds so influential as they supposed to be on oscar..so consistent as they once were back in the 1990’s and prior..but today..with exception fo a thimble full of years..in SAG a film wins best acting ensemble, but doesnt win any vital individual actors…awards..the loss of the editing guild for Spotlight is a jhuge blow still…to its chances..
And Frankly this is how it should be if a film is truly worth it weight in gold which base don the Guilds sporadic approach, SPotlight is not that worthy.
1. Big Short has already won the PGA and Editors Guild
2. Those two are the key one two prerequisites in most cases aS Sasha outlines to secure a handful of major oscar wins on the night..
3. In many peoples view or for those who want to educate the awards season gauntlet and the academy especially bout common sense as has happened up until the Guilds lost their marbles lost their heads and lost their way collectively: the film that won PGA also won DGA, Editors, Acting Ensemble and at LEAST ONE Acting/ supporting acting guild to go with the ensemble and the WGA adapted or original.
4. But since 2000 SAg has departed with the one tradition that shoudl NOT change and that is to the film that if indeed it so great..why not give ity the PGA DGA, WGA SAg ensemble , Editors and one Acting win at least?
5. As i always said and this years guilds reinforce as proof my point without any doubt whatsoever..this = oscar time 5 oscar wins MINIMUM for a acceptable memroable brilliant possilby great best picture winner. 4= excellent but probably not that memorable in the longer term..3 is barely acceptable and frank;ly 2 out of what oi9s it now 17 oscar categories? is simply NOT GOOD ENOUGH for the history books.
Sasha says that ‘something that never been done before’ here a thought though sasha something that REALLY bnot been done before is common sense..ie: everyone knows films like ‘Compton, Beast of No Nation’ are truly rare to reflect challenges true lifestyles in modern america from the Black perspective..and everyone knows just as much as this in a difference context that a damn well science themed film has NEVER EVER won best picture before.
Vale the Martian, etc these films have doubled almost the nominations Spotlight has mustered and yuet nowadays the film with lesser nominations behind the leaders wins too much..this is political correctness gone mad and logic out the window..
Spotlight is overrated in it greatness cos i hear good things about it sure..but the guilds are far fromn falling into line across the guild board for it..indeed i feel the best chance for a upset and justified more deserved oscar winner for the Martian or Fury Rd, is a voting split between the similarities of film stype caused by the Big Short vs. Spotlight.
now that would be a very welcome result..but it still raise questions bout the total disconnect that seems to be growing between the Guilds and the Academy..hopefully if that happens this will lead to REAL reform not just reactionary knee jerk annoucnements just for sake of academy saving their own selfish reputation i welcome any rebuttals as i expect their to be
Look. I admire both yours and Sasha’s integrity and you certainly should stick to the stats. I will stick with my prediction certainly until the DGA and if I am wrong, I’m wrong. I would be curious to see what you’ll say if Inarritu does manage to win it again. I think that his win will be powerful enough to overcome both the SAG and PGA wins.. We’ll see.
Plus, Leo is brilliant at always thanking his Director (DGA) and his Cinematographer (ASC). You can’t ask for more from him.
Oh, I think Inarritu has the BAFTA directing award in the bag. I’ll be surprised if anyone else beats him, unless those voters are feeling sentimental for Ridley Scott.
You’re totally dismissing the general tendency to spread the wealth around. There’s a good reason why there have been so few back-to-back repeat winners in Oscars history, regardless of merit or not.
Another big strike: Revenant has no screenwriting nominations from either Oscar or WGA. Titanic (which was last film to win sans a screenwriting Oscar nomination) had at least a WGA nomination. Only Hamlet has accomplished this feat since the existence of WGA’s awards.
“I just “love” how Sasha continues to ignore Inarritu for the DGA.”
And I just “love” how you’re spamming your Revenant adoration just about everywhere you go.
At some point you’ll realize that Sasha sticks with history through to the bitter end; the fact that the DGA has never awarded the same director in back to back years is enough for many to discount Iñarritu’s chances of a repeat. But a makeup BAFTA win is certainly possible.
That’s what everyone is coming up with – it’s not whether he deserves to win it or not – but whether has he won already, therefore bypass him. I think this is a huge mistake. If someone is master and happened to create two great films that just happened to be so different from each other and back to back – even more reason to reward him.
Big strike against it: Inarritu is last year’s winner.
I haven’t seen Room yet, but I would go
1. – Big Short
2. (tie) – Revenant
2. (tie) – Mad Max
4. – Spotlight
5. – Martian
6. – Brooklyn
7. – Bridge of Spies
I truly like each and every one of them.
With that preferential ballot, it’s damn hard to bet against PGA. That being said, I really have no idea where the wind will blow.
Ditto, although I endorse Big Short, Spotlight, and Fury Road as Best Picture winners (in that preference).
I don’t solely look at the Guild wins to guide me on Oscar success. How the voting occurs, who is voting, and what is being voted on puts the wins into context.
How: PGA has the preferential ballot where SAG has plurality. We have no idea how the SAG voter would vote between the front runners—Big Short, Spotlight, Mad Max, and The Revenant—because they were not presented with that choice. With PGA, all four were included.
Who: The percentage of SAG’s membership that overlap with AMPAS is significantly smaller than PGA’s overlap. SAG includes AFTRA which consists of many journalists. Between Spotlight and Big Short, which are journalists going to gravitate to more—the one that shows journalists in a quest for the truth and are ultimately rewarded for saving the day, or the other one where the only journalist who puts his personal finances and professional reputation ahead of investigating the truth. I’m sure that there are many of AFTRA who voted for TBS, but I would bet that the majority voted for Spotlight.
What: SAG votes on Best Ensemble. They do not vote on Best Film. This is why the SAG Ensemble is approximately 50% when it comes to predicting Oscar success. American Hustle won SAG, and it had one of the best ensembles. (I thought 12 Years should have won that year.) Hustle wasn’t even in the top two at the Oscars. The number 2 (Gravity with its 7 Oscars) didn’t even get nominated for SAG ensemble, which goes to show the disconnect in targeting ensemble over picture. PGA on the other hand votes for the best production, which is the closest in definition to Oscar Best Picture. Hell, they give the Best Picture Oscar to the producers of the film.
While Spotlight won SAG, it does pick up momentum, but it is not as great as many think. It is The Big Short that has the guild more resembles AMPAS voters and that votes for best PICTURE in the same process like the Oscars. I still think that The Big Short is strongly in the lead.
The Help did not derail The Artist at all. The only Best Picture Oscar winner without directing, screenwriting, or editing nominations was Grand Hotel (and that was before the category of Editing was added two years later).
Stanley Tucci won SAG!!!!
I agree that the DGA will tell us everything. I also agree that Mark Ruffalo made the most of this and made a powerful message as to why “Spotlight” should win. I just moved him into 2nd place behind Stallone just based on his speech alone. Powerful stuff.
Now, onto the DGA. I just “love” how Sasha continues to ignore Inarritu for the DGA. Literally just ignore him. But if you think about all the Directors in the race, he literally has the strongest case. Since Sasha LOVES to rely on the stats, let’s just look at them:
1. Alejandro G. Inarritu – Oscar/BAFTA/DGA/BFCA/GG Winner
2. George Miller – Oscar/DGA/BFCA Winner/GG
3. Adam McKay – Oscar/DGA/BAFTA
4. Tom McCarthy – Oscar/DGA/BFCA/GG
Only Inarritu and Miller have high profile wins and of the two only Inarritu has hit EVERY possible precursor. Now, for the life of me, why are you not seeing this?!
“The Revenant” has over performed at the Globes (winning Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor); it has over performed at the Box Office ($135 mil. domestic and counting and $240 mil. worldwide); and it has over performed at the Oscars with the 12 Nominations (that I got accurately).
Now, sure “The Big Short” prevailed at the PGA and “Spotlight” won the SAG Best Ensemble.
So let’s look at the three:
“The Big Short” – PGA Winner/ ACE Eddie Winner (Comedy), Potential WGA Winner – 5 Oscar Nominations
“Spotlight” – SAG Winner/ BFCA Winner, Potential WGA Winner – 6 Oscar Nominations
“The Revenant” – GG Winner/ SAG Winner (Best Actor), Potential ASC Winner (Best Cinematography) – 12 Oscar Nominations
Also a caveat: “Mad Max: Fury Road” also won the ACE Eddie (Drama) and is considered the Front-Runner for the Best Film Editing Oscar. It won the BFCA and will probably win the BAFTA as well.
So if for some “crazy” reason (I actually think it’s quite probable and very plausible) Inarritu wins the DGA, we are looking at the following:
“The Big Short” is only guaranteed to win Best Adapted Screenplay. It is 2nd in Best Film Editing and would be trying to win Best Picture solely resting on its PGA Win.
“Spotlight” is also only guaranteed to win Best Original Screenplay. It is 2nd in Best Supporting Actor (after tonight).
“The Revenant” would have guaranteed Oscars for Best Actor, Best Cinematography and Best Director (if it wins the DGA).
As of today, “The Revenant” is the odds-on favorite to also win BOTH Best Picture and Best Director at the BAFTA.
So if all of this happens, you really think that it can’t and won’t take both “Spotlight” and “The Big Short” down:
“The Big Short” – PGA/WGA – guaranteed only 1 Oscar, possibly 2 of it takes Best Picture.
“Spotlight” – SAG/BFCA/WGA – guaranteed only 1 Oscar, possibly 2 if it takes Best Picture.
“The Revenant” – DGA/BAFTA/GG/SAG (DiCaprio)/ASC – guaranteed a minimum of 2 and up to 4 Oscars, if it takes both Best Picture and Best Director.
So, it’s clear to me that the DGA will tell the whole story and I am confident that Inarritu will win it again. Of all the directors, he’s the only one who was able to make a FILM of epic scope and incredible vistas while at the same time being able to extract powerful and cinematic moments and memorable performances, including also the Best Actor Winner. Also, neither “Spotlight” nor “The Big Short” are favored to win any Oscars for their performances which is also a negative.
This is going to be so sweet if Inarritu wins the DGA. All the naysayers will be livid. I can’t wait personally. Let’s see what happens! 😉
Thank you guest.
I said before and I will say it again. Am a psychic and spotlight will win BP so don’t waste your time on the big short.
Yeah, it’s a good analogy, but I don’t think it can be used as precedent, because the overall situation with the movies in question is just too dissimilar. 🙂
THE HELP is also interesting not because in any way a frontrunner but because it dethroned a frontrunner THE ARTIST which everyone thought had a real shot at winning this after its PGA win.
So it kinda reminds me of TBS in a way.
“Spotlight doesn’t have a 3-Oscars path at all. Unless Mcarthy shocks and gets DGA”
That’s by far its best chance right now, and even that is very, very unlikely, of course.
“In itself, the SAG Ensemble win is not much of an indicator.”
Yup. It needs to be combined with a WGA win vs. a loss for the PGA winner. Or, who knows, a DGA win?!… We’ve never had that before… (And we’re at least 80% sure to not have it this year either, as McCarthy is very unlikely to win the DGA.)
I agree. I think folks are assinging too much weight on SAG which also awarded THE HELP and AMERICAN HUSTLE and won nothing at the Oscars except SA for Spencer.
TBS is the frontunner cuz it will be easier to award 3 Oscars for it come Oscar night.
If DGA goes Miller (I think it goes Mckay because of his TV repuatation too), then TBS wins 3: Pic, Editing and Screenplay like Argo.
If DGA goes Mckay then TBS wins Pic, Director and Screenplay like Birdman.
Spotlight doesn’t have a 3-Oscars path at all. Unless Mcarthy shocks and gets DGA so…
I kind of thought there were more, yeah… But I didn’t remember exactly. Braveheart was just obvious enough that it came to me. I didn’t think there were as many as 5, I’ll admit it… 🙂
American Hustle is the only true example of a 100% valid BP contender (stats-wise) that won SAG and lost the Oscar. And that one lost the WGA to Her. SAG kind of needs the WGA as well, in order to predict the Oscar winner. Not necessarily the ACE (see Shakespeare in Love.) All of the others had major problems, like missing directing/editing/screenplay/PGA nominations, and such (many of them more than one such problem) – Spotlight does too, as it’s missing the ACE nomination. But it’s only one thing, so it’s not inconceivable it might win. But it needs to do more, like win the DGA, or win WGA and have TBS lose it… both of which are problematic, to say the least.
Even more so since 2010 because PGA does preferential balloting like the Oscars. Others do simple majority.
The correction wasn’t about Braveheart. English Patient and Gladiator also didn’t win any of their SAG nominations either.
🙂 I wasn’t correcting, really. Like I said, I don’t think that one should count, anyway. First year with SAG noms and all… Only for thoroughness’ sake, I guess.
But if you apply the same stat to the DGA, then Hill is, indeed, the last to have won the DGA without the Globe nom. (And the only one since the mid-fifties, when there first were at least 5 nominees at the Globes in that category.) Which is why I think McKay isn’t necessarily the favorite to win DGA, after all, though it’s far from clear, either way.
Yup – my evaluation exactly.
I think a tie is a very optimistic evaluation (in favor of Spotlight). I think it has 20-25% chances at best, and The Big Short has pretty much all of the rest. Still, 20-25% isn’t so bad… could’ve been a lot worse.
“only two films have won Best Picture without winning any SAG awards – The Hurt Locker, The Departed. Both won the DGA, only one won the PGA.” That part of the post has been amended.
“only two films have won Best Picture without winning any SAG awards – The Hurt Locker, The Departed. Both won the DGA, only one won the PGA.”
Yup. I was thinking about that as well. Actually, Braveheart too… 🙂 (But I agree we probably shouldn’t count that one.)
“No film has ever lost the PGA, won SAG ensemble, then won DGA. (Spotlight)”
“No film has ever lost PGA, won SAG without also winning Eddie and then won Best Picture. (Spotlight)”
These are, of course, the reasons why The Big Short is still the clear favorite. A percentage is harder to assign… I’d still say 70-80%, at least, but it could have been well over 90%, had it won tonight. That’s what’s changed.
“I think Spotlight has a really great team pushing it and all it needed was one big win”
Yup. It needed this badly. But, to me, it needs a lot more, sadly. I could be wrong…
“So if George Miller wins the DGA, what then? Then Best Picture is a flip of the coin. I’d probably still go with Big Short just because betting against, or shorting, the PGA is a riskier proposition.”
Disagree. The Big Short would still be by far the wisest bet, in my opinion; it wouldn’t be a flip of the coin. But it would be a bit unclear, for sure, whereas if McKay won it it would be close to over, as long as TBS didn’t lose the WGA, somehow.
“At this point, I think the only sensible thing to do is wait for the DGA.”
Yup.
The split in results does seem to indicate a close race with at least two films with strong support, so Best Picture is probably going to come down to whichever film barely squeaks ahead on the preferential ballot.
In my gut, that would seem to indicate SPOTLIGHT, as it strikes me as less divisive, but the PGA results disagreed! Ultimately it seems foolish to bet against the PGA track record, unless something crazy happens like McCarthy winning DGA… (crazy since he was BAFTA snubbed).
Didn’t THE HELP/AMERICAN HUSTLE teach people anything about SAG? TBS is still the frontrunner & if Miller gets DGA TBS gets BP
Ah, good catch! Well, that’s still a pretty low tally. I guess we’ll just have to see how DGA goes.
A tie would be the case, but that’s only because we’re so used to equating critics’ awards with industry support. In all fairness, there’s no tie right now. SAG << PGA. The Big Short is still in the lead, if only by a little bit less than before tonight.
Roman Polanski actually was last one.
You are correct. It did revive Spotlight’s chance, yes. It does not mean it overtook Big Short, or vice versa. More like tied.
Fun fact: I know the HFPA doesn’t vote for Oscars, but the last person to win Best Director at the Oscars while not being nominated at the Globes was George Roy Hill for The Sting. And that was 42 years ago.
If we’re to go by those statistics, then I don’t think the chances for Adam McKay winning there are terribly high. Inarritu seems to have history going against him as well, since no director has won back-to-back since John Ford back in the 1940s. I’d say it’s down to Tom McCarthy and George Miller for the win.
Pretty much DiCaprio, Larson, and Vikander are *near* sure bets (I emphasized near). What we are unsure is Picture, Director, and even more so Supporting Actor.
I’ve double-checked it, and the SPOTLIGHT SAG win tells us next to nothing about its overall chances on Oscar night. It could indicate a Best Picture win (although this still seems unlikely, given PGA), but it doesn’t necessarily presage Acting wins, nor does it suggest that the strong support from actors will translate into wins in other categories. The history:
Best Picture Winners that won SAG Ensemble (10)
Birdman, Argo, The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Crash, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Chicago, American Beauty, Shakespeare in Love
Best Picture Nominees that won SAG Ensemble (9) – Oscars won
Traffic – 4 (Director, Supp. Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing)
Apollo 13 – 2 (Film Editing, Sound)
Little Miss Sunshine – 2 (Original Screenplay, Supp. Actor)
The Help – 1 (Supp. Actress)
Inglourious Basterds – 1 (Supp. Actor)
The Full Monty – 1 (Original Musical/Comedy Score)
Gosford Park – 1 (Original Screenplay)
Sideways – 1 (Adapted Screenplay)
American Hustle – 0
Films not nominated for Best Picture that won SAG Ensemble (1)
The Birdcage – 0
Things could go any which way… In itself, the SAG Ensemble win is not much of an indicator.
Not the Revenant. No SAG ensemble or screenwriting ensemble (Braveheart) from WGA and Oscar (Hamlet was last film to without both WGA and Oscar writing nominations. Titanic had WGA).
Spotlight is great and the cast fantastic. I think that on Oscar night it will be The Revenant or Spotlight winning best picture.