Although most pundits (except me, Mike Burry, M.D.) were predicting either Spotlight, Mad Max or The Revenant to win, The Big Short came up the big surprise at the Producers Guild Awards tonight, along with the expected wins for Amy and Inside Out. What was it that gave some of us hope and cautious confidence? The Big Short is the only film that has SAG Awards Ensemble/ACE Eddie/DGA/PGA and BAFTA nominations. It is well liked across the board, which on paper gives it the advantage. But we didn’t know until tonight if this would be the year these reliable stats would fail. So far anyway, it looks like our Oscar model is a solid success. Next up, the SAG Awards on January 30th, and after that the ACE, WGA and DGA.
The Big Short is such a good movie that it may take several viewings to realize just how good it is. Every character is carefully considered and written with a rich blend of flaws and honorable traits. Most films made these days don’t take time to construct layered characters the way Adam McKay has done, working with screenwriter Charles Randolph from Michael Lewis’s book. Characters so specific that you barely notice it the first time through. There’s more than that, of course, driving it through to a win.
This is an election year and Wall Street is front and center. Market manipulations should matter to you whether you’re a Bernie supporter, a Hillary supporter, or a supporter of any GOP candidate. People of all political persuasions remain rightfully angry that no one was prosecuted and most of us resent the fact that Wall Street execs, bankers and brokers gambled with our money, lost big time, and still walked away rich with the American taxpayers bailing them out. We should all be angry about that, no matter which party we want to run the country. The Big Short exposes the rigged con-game better than any other movie ever made about Wall Street and, thanks to Michael Lewis’s scathing approach, it satirizes the people involved while painting a crystal clear picture of the crazy, conflicted world where we find ourselves ensnared.
The Wolf of Wall Street, in contrast, was about a more ruthless kind of financial thievery — crooks who walk away rich with no conscience and no regrets. The Big Short isn’t about those people. It’s about a few smart investors who saw the banks were committing fraud and bet against the game on the eve of the housing market crisis. When it became clear that the banks themselves were betting against millions of homeowners, a handful of money managers tried to sound the alarm about the extent of the damage about to rain down. But the rotten foundation inevitably gave way and the Jenga towers began to collapse all around them. The catastrophe left many cocky deal-makers hollowed out and forever changed. There is no forgiveness granted here, nor any real redemption, but there are three-dimensional humans worth caring about. The story works for audiences because people all across the country are angry, but it also works on its own as a brilliantly written, carefully acted and energetically directed American film of the first order.
The Big Short taking the PGA’s top honor tonight shows that the Oscar stats we use as our trusty barometers are once again proven valid. At least for now. In such a wide-open race anything can happen. What probably happened with the Producers Guild was that The Revenant and Fury Road may have divided the vote for epic virtuosity. Without either one of these two, the other might have built enough momentum to surpass The Big Short. But with two technically impressive visual epics, all the producers who weren’t voting for the more literate dialogue-driven duo — The Big Short or Spotlight — would have their votes split up between two sweeping extravaganzas.
That left another large segment of the guild to choose between Spotlight and The Big Short. Both are films that would be likely to figure prominently in the number one and number two slots on the preferential ballot. But The Big Short has several things that Spotlight doesn’t. Perhaps first and foremost it has a greater sense of urgency for voters because it’s an election year and people are thinking about politics. Spotlight’s issue is of course immensely important, but the movie itself encourages the feeling that child abuse in the Catholic church is matter that, if not fixed, is at least under better control. The Big Short leaves us with no such sense of security. It ends on a note that lets us know this global financial time-bomb is ongoing and may even be poised to blow up all over again. That urgency is certainly part of its appeal. But even without the political component The Big Short might have won because there’s such flair in its acting, writing and directing. It’s exuberant in a way that Spotlight is not, dynamic in a way that excites people.
There’s that final moment in The Big Short when our narrator, Jared Vennett, pulls a last fast one. With a sly grin he says it all turned out for the better: the crooks on Wall Street went to jail, the government instituted strict regulations, and everyone learned a hard lesson. He pauses, and then says: “Just kidding.” Then he tells us what really happened, reminding us of the grim reality. That short-circuit verbal jump-cut between what we all know to be true and the way he frames the joke as if he’s trying to once again to pull the wool over our eyes is the cinematic moment of the year. There isn’t an audience in any town in America that wouldn’t react to that, especially a town like LA where everyone with a ballot has a hefty stock portfolio too. So even if The Big Short didn’t seem to be generating the kind of extreme passion that The Revenant was getting, it’s apparently giving enough voters plenty of meat to chew on. It’s well liked by almost everyone and hated by very few.
Does all this mean The Big Short wins Best Picture? It means it just got a really good turbo boost to the head of the pack, and yeah, it could very likely go all the way. I would hold off on saying for sure, though. I would hold off because of the kind of disjointed year it’s been. While there isn’t really enough time to turn the ship around once the consensus starts to build, with just a few short weeks here before the rest of the guilds weigh in and Oscar ballots about to be sent out, The Big Short just got a lot more attractive as the safest best at the moment to win.
Fun fact: if Adam McKay wins Best Director he will be the first American-born director to win the Oscar since Kathryn Bigelow won in 2009, five long years ago. Fun fact #2: The Big Short and Mad Max:Fury Road are the only two films in the Best Picture race that feature black women in speaking roles. The only two.
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
I have. Its not a bad movie. I just feel it is a documentary, with some minor character development here and there. Very well made, though. I just feel it pales next to other nominees.
well, depicting an event with proper form is a stable of a documentary. A fictionalized depiction of said event needed more, sorry. Needed proprer story, proper characters with archs. Deadpool has more character archs than TBS.
Yes, “dinged” would mean criticized.
While I am no lover of violence in entertainment for its own sake, and in fact find it to be a big turnoff, I can handle it when it’s something true to the story and the world, and it’s done in a way that reflects the horror of violence instead of glorifying it. For me, MM:FR did this beautifully.
FWIW, I am a woman too. 🙂
I really don’t think of The Artist as a comedy. It does have some funny moments mostly the stuff with Uggie.
Yup, first time since Michel Hazanavicius won best director for The Artist waaaaaaay baaaaaack during the silent era.
Not in quality…
That might be true, but they are similar in a lot of aspects.
Spotlight is a billion times better than The King’s Speech, in every way.
Little Miss Sunshine had no director or editing nominations and a total of 4. It was never winning (or anywhere near as strong as The Big Short, which has everything it needs, is). Its PGA+SAG wins were clearly an anomaly (as much as I love the movie).
Also if he wins if would be the first in a long ass time that a director won an Oscar for a comedy.
Time will tell… 🙂
life is made of disagreements… But I think TBS is closest to the masterpiece level, a title, that doesn’t fit to Spotlight – a great film anyways – by any means, in my book.
Good idea. Thanks!
But they category frauded it in Production Design. Dayum.
LMAO! Either way, you know that I’m right. That movie’s gonna bomb, yo.
At least I won something! Unlike Carol. 🙂
Feminazis duh.
It’s a whole lot easier than counting how many white people there are.
“Usually reloading the page makes it work again but it’s annoying.”
This is probably the best and easiest solution. Fact is though, Disqus is designed to continually keep the page current, so the more active a post, the more Disqus wants to make us aware of the activity.
I’ve gone into my Disqus account “settings” and unchecked as many features as I can do without, and that does seem to help but the brakes on the page spontaneously jumping.
Yes you might not like the big short- I don’t- but you can’t call it a typical Oscar film.
Whilst I would much prefer Revenant or Spotlight to take it, at least, like Birdman, it’s win would show AMPAS as able to support an out there choice
When this season is over, I’m pretty sure you will have won the award for “Strangest New AD Regular”
“Pscars 2016 are so last year.”
I really wish the Pscars would stop tinkering with superficial changes.
I head the boat did in fact request to be campaigned in the lead category.
I love, love George Miller and Fury Road, but I will not be upset at all if Adam McKay ends up winning Best Director. The Big Short is a directorial accomplishment that has a propulsive, visual panache and energy that I haven’t seen since The Social Network.
At least people know who I am. Nobody knows who you are.
I do take great solace in knowing exactly how much you are respected and loved around here!
yes it is. you are a sick that praises your other sock.
Pscars 2016 are so last year. lets move onto Oscars 2017. Which movie is going to be the Next Joy – groupthink pick for the win sight unseen cause prestige names? My money’s on Silence. I love Marty but this thing sounds so stupid plus no Leo. What do you think?
And you are a pathetic sock puppet.
I was talking about the presumed frontrunners. I agree that a lot of female-led films were nominated this year, but unfortunately, Carol was still snibbed.
Yes McKay is nominated for a DGA award.
You seem to have overlooked Brooklyn and Room – especially Brooklyn, which is a 100% female led film, and it’s protagonist, Saoirse Ronan, is in practically every frame of the movie.
Of course TBS is the whitest and maley-ist movie of the year. It’s a movie about Wall Street…
🙂 thanks
Though I recognize now I’m not responding so much to your comment as those above you (Sawyer, Lie). I of course think TBS is the best film of the year in what has indeed been a fabulous year for women-centered films. (5 of my top 7 films of the year are women-centered.) From my perspective, the optics of it really should not be an issue with THIS particular film because it is so cognizant of social and economic injustice.
Your comeback was great. Fishnuts is a repugnant creature.
Indeed the movie might be criticized in the most shallow way possible as being “about white men” (which it is not), and that indeed may be the OPTICS. But only if it is perpetuated with comments like yours that don’t credit what is actually substantial or important about the movie.
Actually I’ve seen the movie twice. Look up the word OPTICS. You can see the headlines now. No one will take our nuanced view of this. Nor I’m not saying it’s right. I’m just saying — prepare for more hashtags!
Big Short has the guilds threatening to short change hollywood ‘ the big short’ is set to be the big sabotage frankly of more worthy films and rarer ones by far like the Martian, Fury Rd, even the Revenant..has to HAS to win 5/5 oscars to prove its worth….is adam mckay even nominated for a dga award? does the dga award still compensate for lack of best director nomination? let hope Scott can at long last breakthrough- to wehich truthfully he should be at LEAST on winning his second DGA not his first a farce pure and simple. everyone knows it if you have the guts to admit it within yourselves. Great wisdom by oscar you know not! pretend to support The Martian pretend to put it on equal footing (just like the justified public concern condemnation of virtually zero black actors producers) then undermine its chances by snubbing explicitly unjustifiably unforgiveably one of the most visionary directors along with cameron and Spielberg and Scorsese in our generation. WE are in priveledged times…between Spielberg, CArmeron, Scorsese and Scott..honestly? the public has never experience such diverse ambitious majestic collective visions and oscar bats a blind eye…and insults not only the public choice for best director until the ludicrous insanity of a massive ‘i owe you’ build up, but directors that have contributed far more frankly to reinventing and redefining cinema on their watch unselfishly and altogether heroically and well..that sums up the contempt and lack of gratitude oscar have not so much for i owe you’s but rather..their contribution per project.
I dont need to list the benchmark films each filmmaker has done. And the amount of in recent times debutant oscar winners or those barely established on the world stage it like any film maker can win a best producer- director oscar..talk about self rithteousness by the academy pffftt…so righteous in fact that publicly dress down and undermine their own outcomes..through their blatant disregard for the public…or the fact that these four gargantuan directors…enthuse motivate., inspire and uplift the public..treating them with the level of intelligence that frankly message films by newer directors do not. They do this by blending reality with a vision..experiment to innovate but key directly into the public cultural conciousness frankly..only The Martian does this..it doesnt stick to ‘safe’ message material to drive it..it is ambitious..it is epic..it is extrarodinary and i sure not many people can deny that.
But i sick to the death of the B.S. but i care about your concerns the public very divided increasingly so year by year incresingly against oscar. YOU CARE BECAUSE you want to see real change in the academy voting structures you want to see them embrace genres that never would have had a chance in hell..yes Martian being nominated has half a chance but given the extent of science fiction innovation no make that a revolution Sir Ridley Scott has owned and adapted unto the world is it not time to stop the half backed ccrap academy?
REach your full potential you could learn from these big four filmmakers instead of trashing them..and yes i know people will say Spielberg already won his ONE best picture two best direcxtor..but he still in vintage form..Scorsese should have one for Aviator easily that year..before he got his ridiculous cocked up i owe you..which was earned for the Departed alone..Cameron only winning for Titanic when he refined done far better acted films since then to go with his advance vision of the future/ other planets etc..and poor old Ridley Scott? not just a seemingly racist academy..and ignorant unjust one as well
PROVE ME WRONG OSCAR or maybe we just throw you into the murderous brutality of that bear that mauls mr. Dicaprio! ggggrrrroar!
That’s so odd that you say that, Henrique Cabral? The part about The Big Short having “no actual story”? I don’t understand? Do you not think that such an impactful event–an event which had worldwide influence–is at least as involving of a story as a revenge film which is hardly believable, or a fantasy land of explosions and car chases?
Hm – I highly doubt that you have seen this film.
There is nothing typical or boring about The Big Short. It’s obvious that you have not seen it and judged it prematurely.
“The role is not flashy at all”
You brought up an excellent point. Flash-free, ham-free performances are largely overlooked by AMPAS especially in the lead. No wonder Blanchett and JLaw are almost default nominees these days. They are Queens of Overacting.
You’re welcome. I’m glad to be of help. Any time. 🙂
I’m a quality blockbuster fangirl. Best kind. My blockbuster taste is impeccable.
It is also about inequality and inequity and the unjustness inherent to America’s political-economic system, and who loses … in a way none of the other movies (indeed including the ones that feature POC) are. Ah but lots of white male faces = bad optics.
#Oscarsowhite is now #Oscarsomale. The Industry is reluctant to acknowledge film with women. Mad max, Room, Brooklyn, even Sicario could have been a great choice.
No. This is what someone who hasn’t seen the movie would say. It is by far the most socially-conscious movie, a movie that indeed asks us to stop being drawn by sensational headlines that distract us from the reality that is the economy under our feet. Emphasizing that it’s a movie “about white men” is not only incorrect–it is not about these men at all–but it is exactly a symptom of the kinds of distractions the movie preaches against.
That’s true #Oscarsowhite became #oscarsomale. It’s been 11 years since million dollar baby won, a film with a female lead. It will probably take them 11 more to acknowledge another film with women.
I wasn’t aware until you told me. Thanks for the good deed! Can’t believe I’ve been living my life thinking I had not-lame comebacks! Now I will go drown my sorrows in my blog which is only about equality of the sexes, and gun control. It also has a post about how Carol is the best movie of 2015 and will be remembered as one of the best romances ever made. I think you would enjoy it!
Mara would not have won Lead Actress. The role is not flashy at all, and she is not popular enough yet, also Brie Laraon is kind of a lock. However, she has a chance at winning Supporting, so that’s a better category for her. Also Blanchett would have never won any category, since she won recently. This setting gave them both a nomination, and Mara is in the race for winning.
But The Revenant is also about white men (even if it features a narrative about Native Americans), and Spotlight too, except that there is a white woman. The only film that would not be white maley is Mad Max, but I doubt they would give that BP.
yes I’m aware but you aren’t aware how lame your comeback is. it’s a lame comeback. Carol is boring and its fans are worst kind of SJW. There. I was asked to give an opinion and I gave one. Also, Mara >>>>>>>>> Blanchett’s annoying mannerisms.
LOL, playing a title role doesn’t always equal lead. Just ask Titanic and Lord of the Rings.
Gotta keep it in perspective: In a season that lasts three or so months, 10 days is about 8-10% of that time. Comparatively, if one did something for a month to a month and a half in one year, that’d more or less constitute a while.
Yeah, I agree: Blaming the actors is pointless because they don’t decide the campaigns their studios mount. They can decline to do press and such, which is what DiCaprio did in 2006 when Warners pushed him for Actor in “Blood Diamond” and Supporting Actor in “The Departed.”
She “demanded” to be in Lead? She plays Carol in the movie ‘Carol’. If anything, Mara probably “demanded” to be in supporting so she’d have a chance for an award.
You’re aware this isn’t Breitbart, right? I think you meant to post this on Breitbart.
Not only #OscarsSoWhite but in a year with extraordinary female-centered films, they choose #OscarsSoMale. If it’s truly the best film of the year, then that’s the way it is. But since this year has thus far had NO consensus, it seems an unusual choice to settle upon. The optics are terrible.
what a wonderful read, Ryan 🙂
edit: that being said and justly so, ..in my humble opinion TBS is not ahead of its time.
it’s enough that she demanded to be in the Lead so if course that they would campaign her in the lead and Mara in supporting.
LOL, it’s blame Harvey for everything like blame WB for Peter Jackson’s Hobbit greed and God-awful script-writing, self-indulgence, etc. Nope.
Carol = boring. fans worst kind of SJW.
C’mon, that was Weinstein’s idea, and he talked Mara and Blanchett into it by saying two candidates could split votes and both could miss out. And it appears he was right because hey, both got nominated. AMPAS voters could have ignored it anyway, as they did with Winslet in The Reader, but they went along with Weinstein’s plan. Category fraud is here to stay, unfortunately, because it gets results.
I just dont feel the fictionalized documentary type movie with no actual story is a Best Picture. I mean… In such a great year, why pick this? It’s like Crash all over again. This will age dramatically. But glad you liked it – I don’t HATE it, mind – I just wouldn’t put it on my top 7. I sure hope SAG/DGA pick something else. At this point any movie – for me at least (and for a LOT of critics circles) is much better.
Hahaha, in year two of #OscarsSoWhite what will the Academy do? Give the prize to the white maley-ist film of the year of course!
But the characters in The Big Short are not quintessential bros. It was definitely marketed as a “bro film” but none of the men in the film engage in typical “bro” behavior.
With these picks you will no longer be the most accurate Oscar predictor in the midwest.
Totally agreed.
10 days is a while?
Actually The Big Short is quite a subversive and intelligent choice in many respects. I’d put this film in a high degree of difficulty in terms of content (perhaps only Room had a more ‘unfilmable’ story among the Best Picture nominees.) The problem is it was directed by a comedy director so its attempts as explaining certain concepts — Margot Robie in the bathtub, being one — are really ham-fisted and silly. Those sections are going to make this film seem outdated very quickly.
Insatiable greed? Please elaborate. Did she go around to every voter’s house and force them to put Rooney Mara in a supporting category?
Didn’t you have a “hunch” that Spotlight would get zero nominations?
This Oscar season is a disaster but at least Carol and Joy bombed so that’s a relief. Those two movies have the most annoying fans so I’m really happy that they all got eggs in the face. Joy’s boxoffice woes on top of critical are especially cheer-worthy. I only feel sorry for Mara because category fraud and Blanchett’s insatiable greed. But she’ll be back in the Oscar race and win eventually.
I’ll save this and post it under your Oscar night post when you will say “I was, of course, totally right.”
Loed I know you’re laughing but you do tickle my fancy a bit. I’m glad you at least are being friendly. I would love to celebrate with you when The Martian wins. What are your plans Sunday? (That’s Sunday in February not THIS Sunday)
oh
It’s easy to LOL when you’re behind a computer screen. But would you do it to my haggard face? I think not!
Psychic Readings for Oscar Race-
Best Picture- The Martian
Best Actor- Matt Damon
Best Actress- Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress- Rooney Mara
Best Adapted Screenplay – The Martian
Best Original Screenplay – Straight Outta Compton
And Best Director—– for the first time since A Midsummer Night’s Dream took a write-in vote for Cinematography WAY back in the 30s—- the winner will be Sir Ridley Adams Scott, III for The Martian. Hear it now!!! You heard it from ME first- Ridley Scott is winning Best Director. Sasha will be the first one to thank me, while the rest of you pitiful minions will BOW before me and ADMIT I am the Queen Mother this year!!! I am not joking- Scott is winning.
nobody knows everything – but dear Gail, you sound like a prank and if that’s the case it’s a little unfair.
Trust me dear, my hunches are never wrong. I usually dream of surprises, and this was a very visual experience. The Martian is taking everything.
Oh
Okay, I know I posted my forecasts but they have changed drastically. I had a vision last night and the answer came to me and I must share this knowledge with you. I am the best Oscar predictor and psychic in the Midwest, and soon I will be the best on the West Coast.
There’s one movie that’s going to win Best Picture that nobody is currently predicting, but will surprise everyone when it does. And that movie is The Martian. I think folks are really underestimating it. But I have reasons why it will win, and once you read them- you’ll be a believer too.
1. It has the biggest box-office of all the best picture nominees. Money is important, and this is a movie that clearly exceeded expectations. It has cash flow.
2. It won the Golden Globe. Now now now before you say it won in Comedy, remember dears- so did Shakespeare in Love, and Chicago, and…I’ll think of the rest later, but the point is it won a top prize.
3. It would be the first comedy to win Best Picture in a long, long time. I remember going to the theater with my sewing club and we just laughed and laughed. The Globes got it right when they placed it in the correct category, there was nothing dramatic about it. When Matt gets stuck on Mars, I almost wet myself. And towards the end of the movie, I blurted out “I get it! I get it- HE’s the Martian. It all makes sense now.” This is probably the funniest movie I’ve seen since The Kids are Okay.
4. Americans know this movie. When you saw trailers in the theater, did you seem them for Spotlight, or The Big Short, or Room? Of course not. But I bet my bottom dollar you saw The Martian. And when you went to work Monday, everyone was standing around the water cooler saying how amazing it was. It speaks to the public- that’s important. Spotlight is too embarrassing to win because it’s subject matter is too ‘shh, let’s not talk about that.’ And The Big Short doesn’t make any sense. Unless you’re in real estate or work on wall street, everybody in the theater I saw it at were murmuring ‘I don’t get it’ for most of the movie. And The Revenant was just bad.
5. It stars Matt Damon. He’s a bigger star then Leonardo DiCaprio, and he’s overdue. I think there are going to be a lot of shocked faces when Damon, not DiCaprio, wins Sunday in February. And he won the Globe and gave a remarkable speech that left the audience almost in tears.
6. Ridley is due. And voters know it. No one cares about George Miller or that weird sequel he shot. Everybody knows Scott did Alien and Gladiator, and that war film in 2001 (forgot the name) but he’s seriously owed big time.
7. The Martian is just better then the other 7 nominees. It grows on you.
Don’t pay attention to these so called experts, and don’t pay attention to the Brits overseas. Turn your television sets off until the last Sunday in February and witness magic. The Martian is going win all the Oscars it’s nominated for- every single one. It will be the first sweep since The Lord of the Rings.
🙂 It’s always annoying when someone’s right who you were just dying to prove wrong…
Yup. Just remains to be seen which one we are. 🙂 Only time will tell…
🙂
If there was an Oscar for most annoying poster, the stats tell me you are a lock
That makes sense then 😉 I can understand why you’re doubtful, but i don’t think you should judge a movie based on trailers, especially when those didn’t made any justice to the movie. It’s a tremendous and unique movie and i think from all the nominees only Mad Max and TBS are going to be remembered for the next years (but then again, just an opinion.)
Good to hear that then. You guys are actually right, I haven’t seen TBS yet, was just saying it based on the trailer and synopsis.
I agree. I honestly laugh so hard when i see people calling this a Oscar-bait movie. That doesn’t make any kind of sense! I wonder if those people even watched the movie or simply are saying that based on the synopsis. Oscar-bait is BoS, Brooklyn or Spotlight. Heck, even The Revenant is much more baity! (remember movies like Braveheart or Gladiator).
He had The Big Short on top from Jan 15.
I don’t think it is a typical Oscar movie. It’s fresh and modern, and not even a screenplay-driven drama, but a black comedy. I personally welcome the win for Birdman for the same reason: it’s not a typical Oscar movie. This year’s The King’s Speech is Spotlight.
It’s only The Big Short for SAG. It was the perfect fit before PGA, it is even more so now.
EDIT
Damn man, again a typical boring “Oscar movie” over exciting stuff like “The Revenant” and MMFR. Reminds me of that awful victory of “The King’s Speech” over “The Social Network”. Have lost interest in Oscar now.
Not really. More on The Martian and The Revenant.
The Artist has won EVERYTHING. The Big Short has only won the PGA so far.
Anchorman, Talladega Nights, The Other Guys and Stepbrothers are four of the funniest movies of the last 12 years. I would take any of those films over King’s Speech and WAY over Danish Girl (though Hooper’s Les Mis was a masterpiece).
Feinberg has been on The Big Short for a while.
Renard!
No need at all for an apology! It’s a fairly common misconception that Citizen Kane was misunderstood or dismissed when it premiered. Just because a handful of critics liked it does not mean that 200,000,000 other Americans would ever read those reviews in 1941.
(although, true, Academy members in the various branches liked Kane enough to give it 12 nominations, the forces against it were varied and impossible to overcome.)
And the fact is, 50 years before the internet, a rave review in The New York Times would mostly only be seen by New Yorkers, right?. Hearst controlled local and regional newspapers all across the country and he made sure that there was a virtual blackout of good news about Kane.
And in fact because Hearst forbid any advertising for Kane in any of his hundreds of newspaper, it failed at the box office. It lost money. RKO was a studio already in trouble. There was no way for any movie back then to have much of a life beyond its first theatrical run. Kane was put on a shelf and forgotten. It would be years before the French critics resurrected Kane, and decades before it was seen on TV.
It must have been almost like a myth or legend. For a few film scholars to hear such enthusiasm for a movie and then that movie virtually disappears for 15 or 20 years. How tragic, yes?
One of the reasons now cited for Citizen Kane’s failure at the Oscars is related to our complaints about the Oscars today: the Oscars can only be as sophisticated as the Academy members, right?
And during the late 1930s — after the Academy almost dissolved in 1933-34 because of union disputes with studios — the AMPAS tried to boost membership numbers by allowing hundreds and hundreds of extras to join! Just people off the street who were nothing more than background extras in movies. They all got Oscar ballots in the late 1930s and early ’40s. ack!!
These were not refined voters. They were barely even “filmmakers” — and they could be easily influenced by their employers. It’s rumored that word went out that nobody was supposed to vote for Kane. Whatever happened, Hollywood was so scared of Hearst that they ignored the critics raves.
===
But I do believe that many people who were lucky enough to see Kane in 1941 were blown away by it.
Here’s my personal Kane story. I was in 7th grade. I came home one Saturday afternoon from the swimming pool, turned on a Saturday matinee movie on the small black and white TV in my bedroom. Citizen Kane was on.. It had already started. It grabbed me by the throat! I was only like 13 or 14 years old, and I had no idea whatsoever who Orson Welles was… All I knew was that this movie was unlike anything I’d ever seen before.
I wasn’t even much of a movie buff at that age. But that afternoon is when I became one.
I looked in the TV Guide, found out the names of the stars and the director, I went to the public library — I looked in these massive volumes: “Reader’s Guide to Periodical Literature” (a magazine index) and had the librarian pull out musty old bound volumes of Time and Newsweek and Nation from 1941 — and I saw these amazing reviews with my own eyes. Just a kid, a nerdy bookish kid. Citizen Kane is the movie that got me interested in movies.
===
So I’m very sure that hundreds and thousands of grownups in 1941 who were lucky enough to see Citizen Kane knew that it was something special — but hardly anyone else outside of LA and New York or a few film scholars knew about or cared about it for 20 or 25 years.
So you’re right! A few people appreciated it in 1941. But very few. Millions and millions of people never even head of Citizen Kane and never even saw it.
And you’re perfectly correct about Vertigo too. It was a failure for Hitchcock at the box-office. Very few critics liked it. Hitchcock was so hurt that he pulled it out of circulation and it was not seen again until the 1980s! Vertigo disappeared for 25 or 30 years! People could only read about it in books! No way that anyone could see Vertigo in the 1960s or 1970s. Impossible. It was locked up in a vault.
I’m sorry to have bombarded you with evidence to dispute your very casual, innocent and well-intentioned comment.
It’s I who should be apologizing to you. Forgive me.
Your main point is one that I totally agree with — sometimes it takes months or years for the general public to catch up to movies that are 10 or 20 years ahead of their time. You’re absolutely right about that.
It seems a rather complex movie that comes into clear focus more you view it …like a fine wine that improves with age
Because of you Sasha, I went and saw The Big Short today. It may not even be the best movie this year, but I agree that it is the most important movie of this generation. I laughed, I cried a little and I got so mad angry when they explained what synthetic CDOs are. Thank you for promoting this film, it is a must watch for every one.
Have you noticed that many folks just don’t have the ability to read between the lines …for example …there’s two German soldiers on the apocalyptic eastern Front in November 1944
Says Hans …I’m getting very worried that this war will end badly for us
Says Fritz …what are you talking about , the German army is winning great victories every week ?
Says Hans ….but haven’t you noticed that the ”great victories ” are getting closer to Berlin ?
Yes , the calm before the storm so to speak
Do you think TBS will win BAFTA ?
The Big Short is such a good film! I love how we followed the characters as they are actually finding out that a system which so many around the world depend on to work because it’s constantly checked and overseen by the most respected establishments, is in fact fraudulent. It’s an excellently made piece of history. Very few historically important times have been conveyed in cinema so succinctly and with such uniqueness. Ethics and morality were constantly on my mind throughout the viewing, and each character in the film confronts those thoughts themselves. It is through those confrontations, those realizations of the characters which kept me completely absorbed. Wonderful film for me, and it’s nice to feel an affinity with others who appreciated the significance of that cinematic achievement by rewarding it so:)
Shame it didn’t have the same impact on you, Henrique Cabral:)
Yes. I seriously think it will go down in history. People don’t know what to make of it now because of its image as an Adam McKay/Steve Carell movie, and it hasn’t sunk into the zeitgeist yet. It will because it’s tremendous.
It’s a landmark event. I’ve never seen a film like it. If you are not immediately drawn in by the very real reality of the catastrophe that is our capitalist economy, and are not interested in the details and the story itself, then perhaps the whole thing will fly by you. It is very hard for me to understand anyone who brushes it off as minor, except that they are not interested in the economy, which frankly, is exactly what the movie is trying to rectify. It is so tremendously smart and full of genres, and knows *why* it is in these different genres, and knows *why* this movie needs to be made in *this* way. Long story short: this movie is smarter than most people I know, me included. Everyone should see it and take it seriously. Best and most accomplished and most important movie of the year.
I apologize for making such a rash statement. I typed those words with the impression of the film’s more broad reputation, its “greatest film of all time” title. I’d argue that many moviegoers didn’t digest those rapturous words of critics for some time once W.R. Hearst began to crack down on the film’s success, money or awards-wise. Please forgive me, I got so embarrassed that I deleted my original comment. 🙁
couldn’t have said it better – except the academy has not yet made that error. so there’s still hope
How does exactly The Big Fake I Mean Short excel over most of the other nominees in production?
It features no actual story
It features no actual character arcs
It relies on gimmicks
I know it is this website’s favorite film, I hardly count it as a film: more of a fictionalized documentary. It is by far in my humble opinion the weakest of the “front runners”
My excitement for this year’s awards just went south
Thank you, KT, for a very interesting viewpoint:) What does “dinged” denote? Is that the same as “criticized”?
For me, such violence and torture is not in the least attractive, nor does it stir my mind towards some resemblance of profound thinking. Instead I am disconnected from the film maker’s fantasy. It was like some ugly cartoon for me.
Perhaps if the film makers used the real world we live in now, or it’s history, then I would have been able to empathize and therefore sympathize with such oppressed and tortured characters?
Of course that is just my view, as I can’t speak for women in general. But your view is interesting, KT. Thank you again:)
One more thing: Titanic had a WGA Original Screenplay nomination. Revenant has no screenwriting Oscar nomination or WGA nomination. Only Hamlet was able to win Best Picture while missing out on BOTH WGA and Oscar screenplay nominations.
not true, actually.
Almost all the reviews for Citizen Kane were rapturous and some critics were already proclaiming it the best movie ever made the first week of its release.
NY Times, May 2, 1941
“Within the withering spotlight as no other film has ever been before, Orson Welles’s “Citizen Kane” had is world première at the Palace last evening. And now that the wraps are off, the mystery has been exposed and Mr. Welles and the RKO directors have taken the much-debated leap, it can be safely stated that suppression of this film would have been a crime. For, in spite of some disconcerting lapses and strange ambiguities in the creation of the principal character, “Citizen Kane” is far and away the most surprising and cinematically exciting motion picture to be seen here in many a moon. As a matter of fact, it comes close to being the most sensational film ever made in Hollywood.”
NY Daily News, May 2, 1941
“… it is one of the most interesting and technically superior films that has ever come out of a Hollywood studio… Some day, and the time won’t be long in arriving, Welles will be the greatest director in Hollywood.”
Variety, April 14, 1941
“… ‘Citizen Kane’ is a triumph for Orson Welles, who overnight, so to speak, joins the top ranks of boxoffice film personalities… ‘Citizen Kane’ is a film possessing the sure dollar mark, which distinguishes every daring entertainment venture that is created by a workman who is a master of the technique and mechanics of his medium. It is a two-hour show, filled to the last minute with brilliant incident unreeled in method and effects that sparkle with originality and invention. Within the trade, ‘Kane’ will stimulate keener creative efforts by Hollywood’s top directors. ”
The Hollywood Reporter’s 1941 review is not online, but THR’s review headline said “Mr. Genius Comes Through: Kane Astonishing Picture.
Observer UK, 1941
“Citizen Kane is like no other film that you have ever seen. Written, produced, directed and played by Orson Welles, it is probably the most exciting film that has come out of Hollywood for twenty-five years. I am not at all sure that it isn’t the most exciting film that ever came out of anywhere….
…It uses camera and microphone as though their functions had been discovered for the first time. Perhaps they have. It is so vast in content, so economic in style that watching it, you can never afford to relax.”
There are dozens of reviews like this from the Spring of 1941, from all across the US and Europe.
Kane won the NY Film Critics Award in 1941 for Best Picture
Kane won the National Board Review Award for Best Film and Welles won Best Actor.
Take the cake.
1) It’s a movie that communicates in images, rather than words, which is old-style pure cinema.
2) The feminist layers go a lot deeper than “women can drive too.” We see the exploitation of male and female bodies (the “milkers,” the poisoned War Boys, Max’s forced tattooing and the old brand on Furiosa’s neck) in countless ways. The patriarchy at work victimizes everyone, but gives men false hope to conceal their servitude. And Max even washes off the blood of those he’s killed with mother’s milk. Everyone can benefit from the change in the system; the women are quicker to see it because they aren’t brainwashed with fake glory like the War Boys.
3) Feminist critics have dinged the movie because it’s hyper-violent. As the saying goes: Can you tear down the master’s house with the master’s tools? But over and over, in the film, characters are wounded by their own weapons. Max’s car is used against him. Furiosa’s hidden blade in the gearshift is used against her. And Furiosa doesn’t kill Immortan Joe with her own hands; she hooks his breathing mask to his axle. He kills himself with his own machine, his own velocity. You CAN take down a violent system with violence, the movie says, but there will be a price to pay.
4) Also, going along with the way people’s bodies are used against their will, we see several characters regain their agency by choosing, for their own reasons, to do the same things they were formerly forced to do or tricked into doing. Most striking, to me, was the sequence in which Max–once a “blood bag”–willingly transfuses his blood into Furiosa to save her life. It’s not the action that victimizes you; it’s not having the ability to consent or decline.
I’ll stop now, but I could go on. There’s a LOT there to be unpacked.
Yes, that’s correct. Remember that it doesn’t say “John Seale” and “Emmanuel Lubezki” on the final ballot; it only says “Mad Max” and “The Revenant”. Most voters will choose based on the film, not on the cinematographer. This is why Roger Deakins has never won – it’s hard to get sympathy votes here.
Yes it can be, but I don’t know if Hollywood loves it. I don’t feel Argo I feel American Hustle for The Big Short. One of the guilds pays respect for the achievement. 12 Years a Slave didn’t win SAG or DGA but GG BAFTA and Oscar for Best Picture. I think The Revenant will win DGA and Spotlight will win SAG. And one of the two will take BP. But I think BP will go with BD which I believe is Inarritu Inarritu Inarritu
I’m still hoping for Miller on the DGA. I think there’s a shot, unless McKay is coming up hard on the outside. Inarritu would be a bigger contender if he hadn’t just won, IMO.
Oh, come on. Some people who saw those movies at their original release appreciated them — but either the mass of people or a few really influential ones didn’t, and that ruled the day. But it’s not like *no one* liked “Citizen Kane” at first. Plenty of people saw as hugely effective, and thus dangerous to Hearst.
Movies’ reputations do change over time, and those are two of the biggest ones. But there’s always someone who sees the greatness shine through.
To me, at this point, it feels more like “The Artist” – a movie Hollywood loves but virtually nobody outside the industry has seen.
Still, that worked out pretty well for “The Artist.”
I know! What the hell does he have to do?
It’s not trying to treat you like a moron. There are a couple of scenes where you are creatively spoon feed ‘how it works’ and what’s clever about those scenes is the symbols represented linking to the greater message being expressed. What this film is saying is no matter the degree of your intelligence you can be fooled. How you can choose to believe in the fantasy offered to you and the look the other way. How most people don’t want to know all the ins and outs, they want instant gratification, they want to live ‘the dream’, and really above all people want to be equal. Or at least feel equal. That’s where the bankers and brokers get you. And in this case it shows how they can get themselves.
This film says a lot about distraction. It’s actually teaching you how to be inundated with information coming at you from all angles, some true, some false, some alluring, some just plain ludicrous and keep focused without switching off (or signing your life away). There’s a huge message there!
When can Deakins finally win his cinematography Oscar??
If a movie is going to leave a lasting impression, it’ll do so on the first viewing – for me that was Ex_Machina and Brooklyn (and I’m expecting The Revenant will also).
Gonna reiterate what a great year of movies this is — at least for me. There are SIX movies this year so far that I like more than any I saw last year. Those six: The Big Short, It Follows, Room, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bridge of Spies, Broolyn. (Haven’t seen Carol, Revenant, Anomalisa, Hateful Eight.)
I’m afraid they will, although a 3rd in a row seems extreme. Seale did the best job this year IMO, and I wish he would win. Lubezki’s work is great but I want them to branch out into different styles.
Yeah, it’s tough on a phone. Sometimes it works fine but I often have that scrolling issue. Usually reloading the page makes it work again but it’s annoying.
If he’s serious he should end it with his spouse before turning to you. Wait a bit 😉
The problem occurs when you are trying to write a comment on an iPhone. If a new comment happens to appear while you’re doing that, the whole screen goes berserk, jumps up and down and you can’t get back to your comment.
Yes absolutely. Anyone who says this will be a sleeper BP winner that won’t be remembered is surely wrong. On the contrary, it will and should go down in the books as an exemplification of what cinema can do.
Exactly! TBS will have its fair share of 1st votes but even more 2nd and 3rd votes than any other film on the list. Well, having said that, I do think Room will have many 2nd and 3rd votes too just not the 1st votes it needs to compete.
Congrats to Sasha and Variety’s Tim Gray. Out of the 15 GoldDerby pundits, they are the only 2 who picked ”The Big Short” to win Best Picture at the Oscars (before last night’s PGA win). … Eight other experts are picking ”Spotlight,” and four are picking ”The Revenant.” But who knows how long it’ll take before any of them switch. Tom O’Neill just switched to ”The Big Short” today. … And at Gurus of Gold, only Sasha and Glenn Whipp had ”Big Short” as No. 1. The vast majority (9 out of 13) are going for ”Spotlight.” And 2 are picking ”The Revenant.”
Among those 2 groups, no one’s picking ”Mad Max.” Now, let’s go and see Miller win DGA, and see the chaos! 😉
‘
John, this problem you describe doesn’t happen for me.
When I tap the “Load More Comments” bar at the bottom of the column, the next batch of comments just unfolds cleanly below where I am, and I can keep scrolling down.
But if you mean the periodic bar that appears when an actual *brand new* comment has been added to the page, well, here’s how that works:
When you tap the bar that says “One new comment below” or “4 new comments above,” Disqus will transport you to the nested thread where that comment has been added — because very often those new comments are part of a conversation and Disqus keeps all the replies in clusters — the same way gmail now collects groups of emails in “conversations”
So if you don’t like Disqus to carry you around to various spots on the page like that, then just ignore that “new comment” bar. Don’t click it.
You can find new comments by scrolling around and look for the color bars at the left edge of new comments. (but that can be hard to do when there are 300 or 400 hundred comments)
There is really no way to make the comments appear consecutively in sequence with Disqus, because Disqus encourages interactions between readers rather than simple stack 400 separate thoughts on top of one another.
I feel ya, John. At first I didn’t much care for this system either, but now I love it.
If you get used to how this feature works, I think you’ll see how it helps keeps the page organized.
When you do click “One new comment above,” Disqus should lift you to that exact spot and the new comment will be highlighted with a color-coded indicator beside it. That line fades as you read the new comment. It’s really very cool.
If Disqus is not behaving this way on your laptop or mobile, then I don’t know what we can do. All I know is I can’t replicate the problem that you describe.
He He Classic 🙂 Love me some That ’70s Show!
I’m sorry, but if the feminism amounts to “women can drive too”, then it’s pretty insulting calling that feminism, Bobby Peru.
🙂 It sounds awesome, for sure. I expect to love it too.
It’s a lovely film, Claudiu Cristian Dobre, made me feel good at the end:)
The Big Short can very well go Little Miss Sunshine, or not. I don’t think it will win SAG+Best Supporting Actor+Best Screenplay. I think it will win only two of the 3 and that’s it. But it is a very good movie, even if it will not win best director and best picture.
You really think they’re going to give Lubezki his third in a row, especially with the great story of Seale coming out of retirement to shoot MMFR?
Whatever wins, wins. Predicting it or not predicting it doesn’t get you anything (unless you’re running an illegal pool) — so I’m always bemused when people brag about predicting the winners.
I’m just here for the ride. If “The Revenant” wins, yay. If “The Big Short” wins, yay. Just gotta enjoy the race since everything deflates and is anticlimactic after the 28th.
It doesn’t need to win DGA. But it could. And If it wins either DGA or SAG, it’s a done deal.
I finally watched The Big Short. It looks like a BP winner more than Spotlight and Mad Max. I think The Revenant may have a better shot than both of the last two. Let’s see if Iñarritu or Miller win DGA. McKay is a threat to DGA and Oscars that McCarthy never was.
No one that votes for critics choice actually vote for the oscars. I know the globes are the same way, but the standing ovation was by people who do vote. We Will see how it plays out.
Says here http://www.awardsdaily.com/calendar/ the deadline is on the 29th, just one day before the ceremony. Indeed, even more reason to assume The Big Short will win SAG as well…
If Carol is going to win costume design, go for it. If not, cry with me.
I think voting closes next Friday.
Would SAG voters have handed in their ballots already? Cos momentum from PGA could help TBS
Had dinner to celebrate my correct predictions and the voter I sat with said I was the best forecaster he’d met since Aristotle. I blushed and he offered me some of his cake. I think I might be falling in love with someone ! He claims he’s married but chuckled “that’s never stopped me before.” We danced and he said he thinks he’s falling for me. Should I go for it? Usually my readings are good for others but this one is all foggy.
Andrew, I’m with you. I’ve been rooting for ”The Revenant,” too. But some folks believe stats are absolutes, and some of us don’t. It’s a waste of time debating them, and we’ll never change their minds, or vice versa. (Besides, some folks will never let you have the last word, so to quote ”Frozen,” ”let it go.” Ha-ha!)
”The Revenant” is No. 1 this weekend, and about to hit $120 million (in only its third week of wide release). It is now DiCaprio’s 8th-highest grossing release, just surpassing ”Wolf of Wall St.” And it’s got 12 Oscar nominations and 8 BAFTA nominations. As I’ve said before, its best shots at winning are DiCaprio & cinematography. The rest is gravy. … And it’ll be all worth it, especially if DiCaprio finally takes home gold.
Same situation for me.
I was saying stats are not absolute. That is, the stats say Revenant would be less likely, not that it can’t win.
Yeah it really was. I can just see the AMPAS BP clips now.
The Martian … starring Chiwetel Eijofor!!
Mad Max … look, there’s Zoe Kravitz!!
Room … yes, a black policewoman!!
The Big Short … see Steve Carell’s boss is a black female!!
Brooklyn … black people on Coney island!!
Spotlight … oh look, that nice lady with the files is there!!
well said.
Yep, there’s definitely a sheeple aspect to voting. That PGA tie positioned the year as sci-fi blockbuster v serious movie (and we all know how AMPAS loves to look serious!). I think a few of those voters, the notorious ones who didn’t watch 12 Years but voted for it anyway, would have latched onto a PGA Gravity win like crazy.
Definitely. The Big Short was messy, if also entertaining, while WOWS was just a “WOW” on so many levels.
“You should be able to appreciate and realize a movie’s quality on the first viewing.”
Is that a written rule?
I’m either Mike Burry or the banks on this whole ‘stats favorite will always win BP’ thing. For me to be the banks, though, y’all would need to get at least 2-3 years in a very short period of time where the stats favorite lost… so, yeah… I like my chances! I think I’m Mike Burry. 🙂 But, we’ll see – it’ll be fun to find that out together!…
Second. Disqus on an iPhone is absolutely terrible and frustrating. I’ve tried to live with it but sometimes it becomes more trouble than it’s worth.
I think that’s definitely a part of it…
“Stallone is still winning. They have already awarded Bale an Oscar.”
Insert photos of Dianne Wiest and Christophe Waltz grinning.
The Big Short is organically told; expertly executed and performed; with lots of cultural resonance. I kept thinking of the late great Sidney Lumet whilst watching this movie. It is classic storytelling. I can see why it appeals to other filmmakers. Oscar bound for BP, but looking at the history of best director Oscars; it is more the visionaries and period pieces that have dominated. DGA feels like a compelling piece of this puzzle as to whether it is The Big Short all the way.
If Adam McKay (who is NOT a mediocre director) wins Best Director in the end, I’ll be fine with that. It’s just…I’ll also be upset that George Miller lost. The Academy has the opportunity to spread the love if they give Best Director to George Miller and Best Adapted Screenplay to Adam McKay and Charles Randolph.
Oh, yeah, OK. I get it now. Yeah, that can happen. And probably would, if The Big Short lost SAG Ensemble…
What I meant is that if SAG go their own way (it would be for Spotlight, presumably), then DGA can do a free for all and go for any of the nominees.
I’d better edit my comment.
I also wonder how much these things work in a self-fulfilling way. If Gravity had won PGA, maybe it would have won BP? People who didn’t really want to vote for 12 Years didn’t get the “out” of a PGA loss. I think a lot of voters want to be prognosticators, they want to back a winning horse and be “right” about the outcome.
And, what IF SPOTLIGHT takes SAG and McCarthy wins the DGA? (or REVENANT pulls that double) It’s not quite “over” yet, though BIG SHORT is in the lead.
As much as I’d love for that to happen, Spotlight is never winning SAG+DGA… (It’s never happened before, actually – the DGA+SAG going to the same movie, but that movie losing the PGA.)
Not to mention that this trivia point obscures the truth a bit. Like, do we ding Brooklyn, a film that takes place mostly in Ireland and a boarding house for Irish girls in New York, because there’s no woman of color in it? And do we praise the quintessential bro film in the BP race for its “diversity” because Adepero Oduye has a teeny role, one in which she ends up with egg on her face?
There’s a difference between having diversity in your cast and having an inclusive spirit to your film.
I’d love for The Big Short to win Best Picture and for George Miller to win Best Director.
More than anything, PGA gave the industry a perceived winner. If SAG decide to go their own way (presumably with Spotlight), then DGA can do the same.
However, if SAG, that likes showy acting and flashy performances, goes for The Big Short again, that’s all she wrote.
With Steve Jobs sadly out of the way, there’s nothing to stop The Big Short from taking Adapted Screenplay. Carol doesn’t have the love and Brooklyn and Room rely on their leading ladies to win their films an Oscar, not Adapted Screenplay (unless a major upset is brewing).
Feinberg heard in the room that the winner would be Mad Max, same for Hammond with The Revenant. Both said the race was close. I assume those were the movies in final contention.
“McKay achieved a beautiful before-the-fall feeling that I can only compare to Cabaret. The shit is coming, you feel it, but we gotta dance anyway.”
Very well said!
I would be totally happy if The Big Short wins Best Picture and George Miller wins Best Director for Mad Max: Fury Road. ^_^
Are you saying he gave the best directing achievement of the year? Because he didn’t. It will be so unfair to see George Miller, Alejandro G. inarritu, and even Lenny Abrahamson loose to a mediocre director, who didnt achieve anything new with his film. George Miller spent 15 years trying to make Mad Max, and figuring out how to make everything work.
I brought this up in an earlier comment. Yes, the actress is part-African.
Same here. Through repeated viewings, while not all-time favorite, I certainly find it brilliant.
Yes. It IS false, technically. And yet it keeps happening, so who cares?! I’ll keep being right regarding what’s going to win BP, and you (and others) will never get why. It’s pretty sad, really… That’s what I love the most about it. Y’all keep arguing with math theory and logic, and you’ll probably still be saying after the 20th time in a row when it’s confirmed that it proves nothing… and you’ll be right… and I’ll still be the one making the right predictions every time…
Lots of ways to be condescending, bro… At least I’m not trying to be subtle about it.
Totally got the visual Martin Short pun on first watch. McKay presented a one-of-a-kind time capsule of the mid-00s and the pop culture we were all distracted with while the economy was eroding away.
Not Spotlight? That surprises me, although the film does feel a tad more AMPAS than PGA to me.
She was so, so good.
What I loved about Big Short, that I haven’t seen Sasha or anyone else discuss, is the very careful yet very brief inserts of artifacts from 2005 to 2008, from music videos to Martin Short in Vegas posters (get it? The big short?). It was the kind of period detail that Coppola brought to the Godfather (to the opposition of Paramount, who felt the film would have worked just as well set 20 years later, in the then-present), and to me McKay achieved a beautiful before-the-fall feeling that I can only compare to Cabaret. The shit is coming, you feel it, but we gotta dance anyway. That feeling is what made the movie exceptional to me
Sorry – I meant BFCA. I will correct.
:))
Yup – that WOULD be the ABSOLUTE MOST AWESOME thing we could know that we never can… At least post-Oscars…
Based on reports from Hammond and Feinberg, The Big Short, The Revenant and Mad Max were very, very close.
McKay got in at BAFTA. It only missed GG.
The thing that’d be fun to know, and the thing we’ll never know is how close the race was. I’m not arguing TBS isn’t the frontrunner btw, it def is now. I just keep thinking about that Gravity/12 Years tie and how close we came to PGA getting BP wrong that year.
Like I said you know where else, The Big Short will still be the big favorite no matter what wins SAG & DGA (except for the Spotlight/McCarthy combination.)
We can continue to argue about it there, if we must. No sense moving it here. But I have to make the comment, as I never made it here at AD.
“You should be able to appreciate and realize a movie’s quality on the first movie.”
Take a weird, heavily symbolistic European art film.
The Big Short will be another forgettable winner. It is the worst film out of the 8 nominees.
There were, obviously, similar arguments every year since 2009, and the PGA winner still always won BP as well.
Maybe there is an option for manual not auto-refreshing.
Not wrong since the preferential, though (and since 2007.)
That’s right, I did. It made a difference between first viewing and second viewing. I can’t really explain it. It happened, though. Now it’s one of my favorite movies of all time – seriously.
Except that it will.
Well remember Doubt? It covered much of the same ground. the difference with Spotlight was that it was about journalists getting the story right.
I agree too. It will be just another boring best picture winner.
She’s trying to have a baby, then has a baby with a breast pump in her office…nice character touches throughout the movie that makes me like it so much.
That’s what I like to hear. Encouragement for the new kid on the block. I think he did a fantastic and wildly original job with this film.
Haha… I said I wouldn’t post DETAILS (of which I don’t really see any above) about stats. In replies. (I can provide the quote, if you want to make sure I’m telling the truth.) And I didn’t say I wouldn’t be condescending WHEN WARRANTED. All those who said the stats were crap now, after the PGA proved – yes, proved – them wrong, have got this coming to them. That you can either take or leave. That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it.
So, yeah, it DID last, and it’s still going. You are incorrect, sir.
Yeah that’s the thing. It might! Or Straight Outta Compton wins PGA. Then what? I think McKay takes DGA because Inarritu and Miller are canceling each other out with the visionary epic slot, leaving only two – McCarthy and McKay – sounds like an Irish law firm.
Oh baloney.
That’s right.
Well, the thing is you can’t really factor in the Globes for much. And neither the BFCA. The BFCA votes how they think Oscar is going to vote. The Globes were working through some shit. So really you have to kind of think farther back – macro. Then it is a little less confusing.
I’m not saying it didn’t break ANY stats. It just broke very few and pretty weak stats, and definitely the least/least important that any movie could have broken.
Strongly disagree. The Big Short is endlessly quotable and will be remembered for a very long time because of that.
The latebreaker thing is an iffy stat I don’t take that seriously… The lack of BP wins is a stat, you’re right. But the others are all pretty minor stats, with plenty of exceptions in the past, even if not necessarily in the recent past. (Same goes for the latebreaker thing – no real evidence that it was more than just a temporary thing.)
No.
It’s really sad. This year was the worst. The worst.
Lol what happened to you not posting about stats and not being condescending any more??!!
Lasted about 3 days !!!
Maybe Ryan knows how to fix that? We can’t go back to the old way – it was even worse for people who complained constantly – I’ll see if Ryan knows of a way to fix it. The thing we could do is re-order it with most popular on top? Maybe that would stop this?
Agree 100%. Cool stuff!
And it has won zero Best Film awards through the season. And while the GG and Bafta are not THAT reliable, they still are considerably important. And it’s also a latebreaker, so that’s another stat.
“When Marnie Was There”
Very high on my ‘to watch’ list…
“That short-circuit verbal jump-cut between what we all know to be true and the way he frames the joke as if he’s trying to once again to pull the wool over our eyes is the cinematic moment of the year.”
…the cinematic moment of THE YEAR?? Gimme a break. It was a good film, but if you told me I had to eliminate one best picture nominee it would easily be The Big Short. “such a good movie that it may take several viewings to realize just how good it is” uhh yeah no. You should be able to appreciate and realize a movie’s quality on the first viewing. I would have no motivation to see this one again. Yet I can name a slew of films that didnt even make best pic (Inside Out, Ex Machina, Star Wars, Carol, Sicario..) and ones that did (Mad Max, Brooklyn, Room) which I would love to see again or already have. Sigh. We had such an interesting year with unique offerings and The Academy has found a way to turn it into another boring win, with a best picture winner that will be forgotten with time.
Actually, no. Not even one, if you think about it. The GG and BFCA director snub stats are the only ones it sort of broke, and those aren’t that reliable anyway…
I think saying one win or another proves the stats are correct is false.
Stats are about probability and we can find plenty of examples- Argo and driving miss daisy no directing, Birdman no editing, Titanic no SAG or screenplay, where the win went against the stats. Stats are not absolute, right or wrong, they are just guides.
As a Revenant fan, I think I’ll have to enjoy the surprise GG wins and the surprise extra Oscar noms such as Hardy, and Leo and hopefully Chivo and a few other technical wins.
The Revenants large nomination haul, unexpected few noms, current BO buzz gives me a little hope but unless DGA goes it’s way it’s very very unlikely to win.
Wow, you guys with the ‘it’s my second favorite’ chain-comments are making a great case for why it won the preferential with the PGA… 🙂
Well, the no. 1. stats favourite broke a lot of stats itself, which is crazy. And if Spotlight wins the SAG and anybody but McKay wins the DGA, we’re still in it, even though I’d say The Big Short remains the frontrunner until the end.
“In retrospect this will seem like a predictable year, if TBS ends up winning Best Picture, since SAG really narrowed the field down to two (SPOTLIGHT being the other plausible contender).”
Yes, this. I don’t get why some people aren’t seeing this!… (Probably because, in the heat of the moment, they don’t stop to think about the current picture, and just remember what seemed crazy before.)
This Disquis is awful. Just lost a long post as it keeps scrolling up and down. Very difficult to use on the phone, near impossible at times. Spent about 20 mins trying to post the above
Yeah, I agree… It’s not any more crazy a year than the THE KING’S SPEECH year. The across the board guild support in Phase 2 simply disagreed with the critics of Phase 1.
In retrospect this will seem like a predictable year, if TBS ends up winning Best Picture, since SAG really narrowed the field down to two (SPOTLIGHT being the other plausible contender).
Yes. I also wish that I could have a conversation with someone without worrying that I am co-opting the thread and messing it up for others.
You’re jumping into iffy (at best) territory if you think movies win BP or the PGA because they’re ‘the best’… 🙂
What Sammy said.
If the year is so crazy, how do you explain the no.1 stats favorite winning the PGA? The year had SOME crazy things about it (mostly SAG and the GG results), but now we’re into the ‘high overlap’ phase, the guild phase, and things always get settled and clarified in this phase. Even the BAFTA can’t make this crazy again. The Big Short is and will remain 70-90% sure to win BP, even in the worst case scenario (losing everything from now on until the Oscars – unless McCarthy wins the DGA, but that won’t happen), in my opinion.
“Nevertheless, my last hope is with the DGA. If this dude McKay can win over the master Inarritu, I would be absolutely shocked and disgusted.”
Deserve’s got nothing to do with it… Get ready! It’s happening.
Yup.
Which makes it even more likely for McKay to win, in my opinion.
This year is so crazy I don’t think we should call the race 90% over. But yeah, The Big Short is a very clear frontrunner now.
Just because it’s been “explained” doesn’t mean it’s true in every case, or in any given year.
“Anyhow, I still feel like this race is closer than many assume and wouldn’t be surprised if it’s only a handful of votes that separate any given movie from the other.”
We can hope… But probably not.
Big Short is mega Oscar deflator. Agreed. They couldn’t have picked more uninteresting movie. especially since they passed on much more risky and memorable WOWS 2 years ago.
It’s unprecedented, basically. Even The King’s Speech and Braveheart won critics’ prizes. Which is why I didn’t think it would happen for TBS… But it’s not a HUGE stat, relevance-wise, so the PGA win easily trumps it, of course.
I am on a macpook pro…fully udated and it scrolls on me all the time.
There are scenarios where it loses picture but still wins screenplay (however few), but no scenarios where it wins picture but loses screenplay. So screenplay should be in 1st place. The rest are less clear. Editing should probably be in 4th, at least, possibly 3rd.
“It amazes me how Kris Tapley is saying everyone had TBS winning”
Really?! Link?
Those look strong. Some might not work out, but all would probably be my first picks as well.
“It’ll be great if my choice from the BP nominees wins two years in a row”
You’ve taken over from me… (I had that in 2014-15) My turn to suffer! 🙂
“even if my favorite movie of the year is never nominated.”
That hasn’t happened to me in a while, though. 2012, I think, was the last time.
Its…It’s a bizarre choice. The thought of Adam McKay winning over Miller (and Todd Haynes, despite not being nominated) baffles me. I liked the Big Short a lot more than I thought I would, but it’s far from the best representation of 2015. What it’s really good at is eliciting strong emotion (a key to win the coveted Oscar). You feel angry at the end of the movie (whether you like the movie or not). Perhaps time will be its friend (Sasha went from being unimpressed to declaring it one of the best movies ever), but it’s still jarring. Anything would be a better choice than The Revenant, in my opinion.
I said it… I said people were still going to predict even against the PGA…
If you think the race isn’t 90% over, there’s nothing more to say, except that predicting the PGA and predicting the BP Oscar has been pretty much the same thing since 2007 or so – which, if it means nothing to you, then just ignore it!
You’re either ignoring the stats that Sasha keeps throwing out there, or you just don’t care. Either way, nothing for either of us to gain from discussing this further. 🙂
Sasha has addressed this repeatedly. PGA gets 10 movies to fill on their ballot, Oscar voters get five. That’s why PGA often has a more eclectic set of nominees but still usually picks the Oscar winner (it’s that damn preferential ballot).
There’s a 1-way race as of last night, actually…
I told you you were safe! 🙂
(Spotlight) “It’s a movie with some minor issues, The Big Short doesn’t really have.”
I can’t imagine disagreeing with anything more, ever, in the history of the world…
I don’t understand what was proven? As far as I know the stats have been being used to predict the Oscars which haven’t happened. I don’t recall any discussion predicting PGA based on stats.. The race is not over.. In fact PGA is only the first of the biggest 3 and the stats are still there to be broken.
Well said!
Historical stats aren’t absolute, and Sasha has been pretty consistent in saying as such. They’re just guides and signposts. At the end of the day these are all just correlations of varying degrees, and we’re doing our best to interpret them, figure out an underlying causation if applicable, and fold them into a narrative. If circumstances arise where the stat “breaks”, we reevaluate the value of the stat as needed.
Probably nothing can happen that can change The Big Short’s frontrunner status, I agree. It can help some movies get a bit closer to a potential upset, but that’s about it. The worst thing I can think of that could happen for The Big Short would be losing the WGA (in addition to losing everything else, I mean), but, even then, I still think it’d be the favorite. Maybe even the clear favorite.
It’s about repression, rebellion, fanaticism and feminism. Is that enough for you? You missed all of it.
The acting seemed “forced” and it “looks very pretentious” does it? Where do people get such misguided assessments?
I know what you mean.
I’d be happy if The Revenant (big, gorgeous epic), MMFR (that it got 10 noms still blows my mind), or Spotlight (I just loved it) won.
But I feel like the wind was taken out of me since this announcement. The Big Short entertained me (also confounded me, a bit).
But I was just so thrilled with this year’s crop (Revenant, MMFR, Spotlight, Carol, Bridge of Spies, Sicario, Star Wars, Creed), and the idea that something other than any of those I listed being the winner (The Big Short) makes me feel quite — I dunno — deflated heading into the Oscars.
Yeah, that is pretty weird… (the Brad Pitt thing)
In most guilds (DGA, ACE etc) you don’t need to be a member to win. That’s why people tend to roll their eyes at the WGA …
Y’all were probably right about one thing: Spotlight being dead… I’ll acknowledge that when it actually happens, though (after the 28th) – it’s too soon now.
Margaret Sixel is not a member of ACE and she got nominated for Fury Road. If you look at the Eddie nominations page, ACE membership is specifically listed after each nominee’s name and there are quite a few that don’t have membership.
TL;DR – ACE membership is a non-factor with the Eddie awards.
I see no comment at all.
Yeah, and there was that lady in the background in Spotlight who got to say “are these the files?” I’m just teasing … it’s actually depressing that Sasha so pointedly mentions the crumbs that black women get in the film industry.
True. But, the PGA also had EX MACHINA and STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON on the ballot, the latter in particular could scew the votes just enough for SPOTLIGHT or REVENANT to squeek by. And, the Producers only make up 7%-8% of the Academy.
The point is, though, they’ve gotten it right since 2009 when they and the Oscars expanded their field of nominees and use the same voting method. Getting it “right” in 1990s and 2000s doesn’t mean the same thing it does today.
“The Big Short taking the PGA’s top honor tonight shows that the Oscar stats we use as our trusty barometers are once again proven valid.”
Yes yes…
They always are. It’s a thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uTbl-WI6jQ
Well your view of the film is certainly more inspired than my own, PollyWa. It’s probably the nature of art, to inspire thought and feeling:)
Whoa just found out BIG SHORT won the PGA!
Oh well at least we’re getting MANCHESTER BY THE SEA this year.
I think it was a film that made me think for days afterwards about the world and characters it had created, about the unfortunate future we’re heading for, and about the nature of filmmaking itself. But that’s okay, I’m not trying to convince you of anything and “it’s just a car chase” is a common refrain.
“Fun fact #2: The Big Short and Mad Max:Fury Road are the only two films
in the Best Picture race that feature black women in speaking roles. The
only two.” Not true. You’re forgetting the amazing Amanda Brugel who played the police officer who helped Jack after he escaped in “Room” and she saved the day. She was incredible and perfect in that crucial small role, more significant than the black female characters in Big Short or Mad Max, in my opinion. http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0115760/?ref_=tt_cl_t7
Next weekend, SPOTLIGHT wins the SAG Ensemble award.
The following weekend, Inarritu wins the DGA.
And, then chaos reigns and everybody will look at their stats and precursors trying to divine which way the wind is blowing right up until the ceremony.
……
……
And, then wouldn’t it be delicious if MAD MAX IV wins!?? The heads exploding in the Oscar blogosphere would be so delicious!
The main view of TBS seems to be “far worse directors have won” and “far worse movies have won”. By the end of the season I guess all we’re hoping for is that a director isn’t Hooper, and a movie isn’t Crash …
Why has nobody pointed out that perhaps the reason Spotlight didn’t get an ACE Eddie nomination is because their editor, Tom McArdle, isn’t a member of ACE, same reason Quentin never gets WGA because he’s not a member…
Good job, Sasha, for predicting The Big Short to win PGA. You could have gone with the masses and predicted Spotlight or The Revenant, but you had an inkling that this would be the way of things and you were right. I congratulate you.
That said, this post rings a little bit like Monday morning quarterbacking, citing the statistics that best fit the outcome that we saw last night. If you look at your PGA Preview, at least two of them go directly against The Big Short– that it wasn’t seen by Telluride and that it didn’t secure a Globe nomination for Director. (It also has 33% more negative reviews on RT than any BP winner since 2009 though admittedly it hits below the “30” mark that you mention seemingly at random.)
I say this only to point out that while stats are really helpful, they can also point in a number of different ways. We’ve seen a lot of upset statistics since the 2012-2013 year (the required Director nomination, the required Editing nomination, the Picture-Director split being unlikely…). And when our sample size under the new system is a measly four years, it’s all the more up-in-the-air.
Not much more than that for me, PollyWa. My comment to Michael English slightly elaborates, but not much. I did find it pretty ridiculous to read that it somehow has anything to do with feminism. I’m pretty sure that narrative derives from the lack of feminism in such films rather than being an example as such. But what did you think?
It’s almost impossible to follow an active discussion here via iphone–the screen resets every time a new comment arrives. It just happened while I’m writing this and now I can’t see the comment box–while I’m composing this comment!
What a strange year.
-To me, The Revenant screams BP winner. Sure, it only has 82%RT/76 Metacritic. But it’s type of film that AMPAS goes for. That said, will they give Inarritu and his crew those wins so soon after Birdman?
-To me, Mad Max feels like the type of film that impressed to get 10 noms (on buzz), but that may not translate to a slew of wins. Sure, it can win 6-7. But really, how many can it truly win when going up against Revenant and The Big Short? Can Miller even get the win here?
-To me, Spotlight had all the WIN buzz but is fading quickly. Only Screenplay?
-To me, The Big Short feels so … I don’t know … not like a winner? It’s an entertaining, timely film for sure. Very good reviews (though, it has its share of poor reviews, detractors, and is more divisive than even Birdman). Brad Pitt producer … I get it. Bale for the win? Maybe. McKay winning Screenplay AND Director??? I don’t see it. Editing? It will fight that one out with Mad Max. It made all the Guilds (a great sign of strength). But it did miss that GG Director nod and is a late-release. I just feel like – while the other contenders have their own hurdles – The Big Short doesn’t “feel” like the winner, either.
BECAUSE of PGA, I GUESS I see The Big Short winning Best Picture now. But it just doesn’t feel right for some reason. You know?
As for BAFTA, I see it going:
Picture – The Big Short
Director – The Big Short
but most likely …
Picture – The Big Short
Director – The Revenant
BAFTA has been going with the buzzed-to-win film as of late. Surprised that The Big Short went over with them as well as it did.
BAFTA loved The Revenant and may also want to reward Inarritu since they didn’t give it to him last year.
I guess my biggest questions heading into the Oscars next month are:
Can The Big Short win BP (I guess so, huh?), Director (really????????), S.Actor (when Sly is the huge fave), Writing (yes), Editing (maybe, though Mad Max is the fave).
And just how strong is The Revenant? It’s the nom leader with a resounding 12 (versus The Big Short’s measly 5). It will win Oscars. But does it have enough love for MAJOR wins ?
I repeat, what a year.
PGAa doesn’t always get it right. In the past they’ve awarded The Crying Game, Brokeback Mountain, and Little Miss Sunshine. Best Picture will either go to Spotlight or The Revenant.
I agree…this Discus app absolutely sucks. Can’t scroll and work your way through comments at all. Next to impossible. Lets ditch this for something else.
I was honestly asking whether you only picked up that there was a car chase? It’s not an uncommon view of MMFR but if it’s true, I’m curious.
I’m gonna watch the Oscars only til Best Supporting Actor (which is at the beginning). I’m rooting for Sly. I’m going to skip the rest cause I don’t care plus I have Walking Dead to catch. Big Short killed my interest 100%. I was rooting for MMFR but that hope is now gone.
Your review was much more impressive than the film itself was for me, Gabriel Tiller:) I read some impressive reviews like your own before I saw it, but the film seemed too incredulous, very repetitive, and empty for me. Though, as always, Mr. Inarritu’s directing of the camerawork in collaboration with his cinematographer was interesting enough to continue to watch:)
What did you think the film was about beyond the car chase? Special effects, stunt persons, and the slightest of stories imaginable is what the director featured for me. I think that’s all fine for the ambiguousness of the word, “entertainment”, but does it deserve awards for the full picture? Not in my view, PollyWa. What did you think?
Not really, Michael English, otherwise suicide would not be so prevalent. In The Revenant, the only thing driving him to survive is revenge. In Mad Max, it’s hardly about survival. It seems to be about risking survival instead of continuing facing a life of oppression. You certainly don’t need to create a post-apocalyptic world for that message since there are plenty examples in the world we live in presently. So the world created in that film is unnecessary to the supposed point of it. It is a reason merely for the special effects to be featured:)
You only picked up that there was a car chase?
It’s my second favorite movie after SICARIO.
I have wanted Stallone to win so badly this whole season, but yes, if Bale wins SAG and BAFTA he is going to win the Oscar. A rising tide lifts all boats. I could see Big Short getting 4. A 100% of all noms win total is rare enough that I’m saying 4 and not 5.
I just can’t find new comments to other people’s original comments.
It doesn’t feel that special,The acting seemed really forced and it looks very pretentious. Not the kind of film that wins best picture..On the other hand worst things have happened at the oscars so let’s wait and see..
The instinct to survive is human nature itself, and every aspect of our personalities derives from it.
The Big Short is just the worst choice they could have come up with..Really?The Academy should better get it right. .
Preach…
The Big Short will not win best picture..
I’ll go see about them. Sorry I didn’t see this note sooner. (You can email me and usually get quicker response, ok? never hesitate)
Sasha, let me be frank. I don’t like this new Discus app. Whenever a new comment is made, you can’t continue to scroll down. If you hit the new comments, you have to start back at the top again. I love reading the comments, but now it’s become a struggle.
Does anyone on here have the same problem?
I very much appreciate the films of Bresson, and some Bergman films as well, but I certainly watch a variety of films. I did see Mad Max after all:)
I assume you only watch movies by Bergman and Bresson.
Human nature is an elaborate car chase? Guess I hope for something deeper than that, Sammy:)
I missed the “substance” part. What was it?
“Every character is carefully considered and written with a rich blend of flaws and honorable traits.” I assume we’re not talking about the women in the film or anyone who isn’t a rich white dude with a complete lack of moral fiber. How poetic that the final year of the Academy old guard ends with them awarding a film about white guys screwing over the populace at large and then, incredibly, expecting the audience to feel sorry for them.
and seriously. dont considering the distributor fact is very naive. and it is a factor that made boyhood lose, yes, sir, without a doubt.
if we wanna go stats wise, the last time an independent distributor won best picture oscar was… NEVER. (hurt locker is summit that is lionsgate)
I think both The Revenant and Mad Max are immature films. It’s probably the most common criticism of English-speaking cinema–carnival camera-work and special effects taking center stage over a compelling mature story. “Style over substance” would be the proper cliche if needed:)
At least hooper has a history of making good films, while McKay does not. When you compare McKay accomplishment to the other directors nominated, it falls short. Inarritu, Miller, it will be so disrespectful to give Best dir ect or to McKay when you have 2 directors that spent years trying to make their difficult film. It will be so unfair, George miller spent 15 years trying to make Mad max and finding ways to make that film. While McKay didn’t do shit. But Whatever.
may be, because it conveys existence and fantastic realism is less rational.
but it is not what iñarritu himself outspoke; he indebt it for cortazar. (as a good latin american guy)
Big Short’s win at oscars will be sucha non-event. Main headline its gonna be Leo’s win.
To me, Birdman seems more indebted to the existential/absurdist tradition of Camus/Beckett than to the magical/fantastic realism of Marquez/Borges, but either way I’d say it’s indebted to both. An interesting question though.
“But sadly, I think the movie exemplifies the same emptiness it thinks about, and not in a good way.” Not only does it exemplify the same emptiness, but it heralds it. It offers nothing but self indulgent nothing.
i said gender because in portuguese “gênero” is both gender and genre.
it can’t be said that it is absurdist because absurdism is another literally school, that came from camus, beckett et al. – those guys came after fantastic realism.
Im not surprised at all, even though i thought Spotlight would win. I think The Big Short or Spotlight are the kind of movies that i consider as hybrids. They’re a mixture of film media with a story or a study. But, normally (except for the basic bullshit acting performance reviews) they’re being praised only for making a point about our times. It’s like, at the end of the day, you get a story, but not a movie. Those movies don’t necessarily express what really the lights and sounds of cinema are all about. Movies like Mad Max and The Revenant are prime examples when cinema as to be there for its own reason – not for the service of a real story or a social thesis. They’re just there for the sake of film. For expanding the potential of poetic lyrism in frame that can be understand and related in any world’s age. But, quite frankly, the Academy Awards are the ones that rarely gives an award for a movie that enlightens only cinema. Seems like only Cannes and Venice and such festivals are doing it. The Academy was always about a good and important story, which is fine to me, ’cause i like them both. I like The Big Short, i like The Revenant. But, once in a while, Academy could do something different and reward an example of full cinema. Something that may sound quite a bit like Titanic, but after a profound analysis, it’s not.
Do you think Bale could win BSA ?
When The Big Short entered the conversation for the very first time on this site, I made a point on this site to emphasize McKay’s great talents as a director. I’ve had my eye on him since Anchorman. That is a display of perfect timing and scene crafting, comparable to The Big Lebowski. Of course, if you don’t think it’s a funny movie, it won’t work for you, and you’ll be confused by that observation. But if you do find it hilarious like I do, you’ll get what I mean. Watch that movie again–there’s a brilliant director behind the camera. Like the Coens, McKay is *very* disciplined in strict formal qualities — lighting, music, editing — and that strict formalism clashes amazingly with the ludicrous performances. That is just to say, McKay isn’t coming from nowhere, and if you watch even the stupid comedies with a careful eye, you might not be surprised that he was capable of a lot.
Birdman was the second best movie of the year according to critics. The Big Short is #20 in their list.
It is the worst Best Picture of the 8 nominees. But the Industry, is never right about the Best Picture of the year, they always give the price to their friends.
I agree, what a sad day for cinema. The Big Short being compared to Crash is an authentic case study. How i love haters…
What a sad day for cinema. The Big Short will be another Crash. Is funny cause Crash came out in 2005 and The Big Short in 2015 what a coincidence, 10 years later another bad best picture arrives. Watch everyone put this film in the worst Best Picture Oscar win.
I’m aware of the genre (not “gender”) called “fantastic” (or “magical”) realism, and I think you’re right to point out that Birdman shows indebtedness to the tradition, even a reference to Marquez. That doesn’t make the movie good, and doesn’t mean it isn’t absurdist. I actually think it is philosophically quite a confused movie that embraces pretty conventional existentialism and doesn’t go anywhere with it. To me, the movie is “about” its own flashiness — the surfaces of the performative world, and the emptiness behind it. Don’t get me wrong — I think it’s a fun experience, and super impressive in lots of ways. But sadly, I think the movie exemplifies the same emptiness it thinks about, and not in a good way.
Why? Do you think Hooper was better, for exemple? I would also pick Miller but McKay also had a very difficult task and made TBS a fantastic movie that in other hands it could’ve been a total disaster.
Oh please. Even Lenny Abrahamson is more deserving than him. McKay is a mediocre director.
Well, last year wasn’t particularly inspiring with boring biopics dominating the lineup. But i definitely don’t agree with your observation about Birdman. It’s an absolutely superb experience that feels like a roller coaster ride. The acting, the directing and even the satirical yet genius script all mixed made Birdman a delight to watch!
not absurdist. it is a latin literature gender called “fantastic realism” – gabriel garcia marquez, julio cortazar. (but agreed on the lack of profundity, that these both authors dont suffer)
Agreed, in the sense that not many people are going to be in love with TBS and re-watching it in the years to come. But it has a timely topic that is relevant and that sort of thing seems to go a long way with Oscar. We will see, but I don’t think time will be as kind to TBS as Oscar voters will be this particular year.
I disagree 100%. But then again, I haven’t agreed with the Best Picture winner for years. 😉
i disagree. but of course, i am just being polemical… i liked birdman also, because it was really a latino looking into broadway in the name of cinema. but it was not even his masterpiece.
boyhood is the masterpiece of a great american director. it is very sensible and made a beautiful and profund panorama of my generation – even if i am not american.
nevertheless, you guys dont trust the industry also. or do you guys agree with crash over brokeback?
Excellent choice by the producer’s guild! Great predicting by Sasha Stone:) My favourite films of the year are now The Big Short; When Marnie Was There; Room; Mistress America; Suffragette, in that order, so I’m personally very happy about how this award season is shaping up;)
Sorry, I have no idea what I did wrong to post my avatar in my comment, but I don’t know how to edit it out? *embarrassed*
They were both disappointing frontrunners. Good impressive movies that failed to be the classics they presented themselves as. Boyhood was not quite the masterpiece it was touted to be, and Birdman had spectacular qualities but settled for shallow false absurdist comedy rather than profundity in the end.
”Saturday Night Live” had a pretty funny parody of the ‘Screen Guild Awards’ and the all-white nominees.
http://deadline.com/2016/01/oscars-satire-saturday-night-live-oscarssowhite-1201689432/
Ageee. It’s my second favorite movie after the revenant.
I know, right? All the excitement about Boyhood is completly baffling…but luckily the Academy made justice!
What can I say? I hope you guys are right.
Stallone seems like he will take it
like birdman was “better” than boyhood? not for the critics. if you trust the industry…
McKay winning Best Director will be the worst win in the history of the academy. And the big short is not a good film. This awards season is becoming a piece of trash.
If the big short wins best director, it will be the worst director win in the history of the Academy.
Exactly. It is the same thing that happened with Boyhood last year. It was distributed by IFc films anindependent film production company. Films in those production companies do not win B est Picture at the Oscars
Trump is just noise ; he may or may win the first few primaries but Marco Rubio will be the nominee
Who do you think will win BSA at the Oscars ?
It’s been such a crazy season and full of surprises. The race has been all over the map.
* Best Drama at Globes: ”The Revenant”
* Best Comedy at Globes: ”The Martian”
* Best Picture at BFCA: ”Spotlight”
* Most nominations & wins at BFCA: ”Mad Max: Fury Road”
* Most BAFTA nominations: ”Bridge of Spies” & ”Carol”
* Most Oscar nominations:”The Revenant”
* PGA winner: ”The Big Short”
That’s just happened this month, and January isn’t even over.
There’s still a lotta race, and SAG, DGA, BAFTA & the Oscars could still surprise us yet.
let’s be frank? if spotlight were distributed by Paramount and not Open Road, would things be different?
isn’t it kinda hypocrite to support a film that will only won because is not an independent film, but – well – a film made on Viacom, Inc. Class B stocks at NASDAQ?
I watched an interview with Trump on one of those horrible USA Sunday “news” shows this morning, with the interviewer lobbying softball questions of the “what do you think about this …” variety, and allowing Trump to mostly filibuster. It is just fun and games right now. But once things get serious a ton of bricks will come down on Trump for everything he has ever said and done and might do. His problem is not just the electorate demographics but also the powerful people who do not want him as president. Those people are not going to just hang out and let him waltz into the presidency.
I didn’t give a fuck about The Revenant 5 minutes after the end of the film. I can’t say the same about Mad Max, Room or The Big Short. We can say that The Revenant is beautifully filmed. More than that? Not sure.
“Stallone won the globe due to his story.”
I think se can all name a lot of people that won the Oscar in the same basis.
I feel exactly the same. While I really liked the film, I don’t think it should even be nominated in the first place when films like Carol, The Hateful Eight and Sicario have been left out.
Thank you for your honesty. Couldn’t agree more.
In my opinion, Birdman is the worst choice for BP in the nine decade history of the Academy.
I’m afraid that might be a common misconception. This guy must be stopped before the general election. He shouldn’t get the Republican nomination in the first place.
I thought Birdman was a cruel nihilistic joke against humanity. It is nothing more than the “it” crowd kicking someone when he’s down, laughing and making fun of them, and then receive a pat on the back for being brilliantly witty at ridicule. I have never had such a negative film experience as watching that movie.
i dont think so. Brooklyn was good but is just another romance
I think that yesterday was a SAD day for Cinema… Nobody will give a fuck about The Big Short 5 years from now. It’s an entertaining film with a political message but it’s no where near the Best Picture of the Year.
I have to admit that I was wrong, however and that Sasha Stone was right..
Nevertheless, my last hope is with the DGA. If this dude McKay can win over the master Inarritu, I would be absolutely shocked and disgusted.
I don’t care what you tell me but in all honesty there is NO FUCKING way that McKay deserves to win Best Director over Inarritu or Miller.. It just can’t happen..
Talking about integrity – there would be the worst thing ever to happen.. So, it can’t and it shouldn’t.
Maybe it’s too late to stop The Big Short train for Best Picture, but Best Director – no way!!!
Honestly, i don’t think this year we’re going to have a split. If TBS is going to win, then i don’t see why the doubts about McKay especially considering that the movie itself is a directional achievement. It reminds me of last year when most people were still insisting on Linklater or when Hooper won over Fincher (awful!). Also, the DGA usually goes to the BP frontrunner (ex: Rob Marshall with Chicago or Ben Affleck with Argo). So, i guess the only scenario that i could see happen (and i’m rooting for that) is Miller winning the prize but it had to be a huge passion pick and Mad Max itself had to be really strong in industry because otherwise that’s really unlikely.
Trump doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell of winning the general election. He has too many negatives limiting his broad appeal and once things get serious no on will let him slide into the presidency based on his current ploy of responding with insults. What we see at this point is a generally weak slate of Republican candidates exacerbating a festering problem in the Republican Party of which Trump has for now taken advantage. Eventually “Trump the Insult Comic Dog” will go back to reality TV and people will wonder how he was ever considered for winning the presidency.
The cancelling-each-other-out danger was valid for the plurality system, not the preferential.
I was impressed with the black cop too. The actress was so good in that scene.
this is why I never get the “two films split the difference allowing another one to step in”. Unless all the voters purposefully put The Revenant at the bottom of their ballots to keep it away from Fury Road, which I’m all in favor for.
DGA will be a different story, however. Since they use a plurality system vote splitting can definitely still occur.
If Trump is really unstoppable, I wonder how it came to happen. I mean, he’s a fascist. What can push people to elect such a nutjob?
Keep in mind that the design of a preferential balloting system significantly reduces (if not eliminates) the incidence of vote splitting. This is because ballots always get transferred to the next highest ranked contender if they are eliminated (assuming that the ballot lists more than one film). So if there was a strong crossover between Fury Road and Revenant supporters, as long as these voters ranked both films at the top of their ballots, once one film got eliminated during balloting their vote would automatically get transferred over to the other.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Christian Bale voted for Stallone.
Its shame. Imho Big Short is the worst film of all 8 nominees (still good but…).
LOL, it is funny that she said she hates Mad Max first, and then gave out the nominations and claimed she would be spot on, haa
I feel the same way too….I was simply voicing mine.
Stallone is still winning. They have already awarded Bale an Oscar. The standing ovation at the Globes says how much support he has in the acting branch, that will be enough to carry him to the win.
Anyone else find it weird that DFW/Houston went hard for The Revenant, and Austin went hard for MM:FR? Maybe it’s a cultural, political-leaning thing.
I think so too, but you can’t discount something strange like the BoS/Brooklyn crowd rallying around it to try to prevent one of the more cinephile works from running away with it. Surely, so many of these movies appeal to certain blocs of voters. No doubt, there is at least some small segment that would want to award the lifetime achievement award,
It would be interesting if we could ever see what movies won between minorities, the very far left, under 40 crowd, and the senior citizens.
It happened last year with Birdman.
I still think this a four-pic race (The Martian if you want to consider what happened in 2012 with Argo). My hunch is that MM:FR/The Revenant split among their biggest fans, There were also a lot of people who threw those movies at the bottom of their list, denting the passion. MM:FR has a genre bias that probably got as many old people refusing to watch it or turn it off after the “milking mothers” and “doof warrior” in way that many don’t even bother to pop in African-American screeners. TR comes off to many as pretentious torture porn with only the beautiful landscape to redeem it. Spotlight. for its part, lacks the razzmatazz and strikes enough people as too “boring” and made-for-television.
While a lot of us think this is a runaway for McKay, we don’t know what the margins are. TBS could have been a universal pick among those 2,3,4 picks with a smattering of #1 passion voters. I just can’t ignore how equally appealing (among the nominees) MM:FR/The Revenant are among the cinephiles.
Adam McKay has been in hypermode on the campaigning front. I was not surprised to see this from Feinberg early this morning:
“…but the fact of the matter is that The Big Short’s Adam McKay (who will be joining me on the ‘Awards Chatter’ podcast this week) stands as good a shot at winning that accolade as any of the five filmmakers who are up for it.”
McKay has been hammering home the significance of his movie on just about any platform that will have him, and he tends to be very likable from everything I’ve watched or listened to.
The Revenant, probably hurts from winning so much last year, and he often comes off as maybe too much of the eccentric auteur for a lot of people. The marketing push is so strong though — the narrative of it was hard and was five years in the making, the suffering, now the pushing of capitalist exploitation, native american rights participation (in the movie) and their Western violation, and the environment (climate change), of course! I mean they are drilling it so much (watch the 44 min documentary released by 20th Fox on YouTube this week), and I dunno, I think some of this might backfire for someone who definitely isn’t due.
MM:FR and Spotlight seem rather tame on the PR front from everything I’ve seen. Spotlight’s coming from a small studio is probably working very much against it. I’m actually quite disappointed with what I’ve seen from MM:FR because there’s seemingly been no renewed push to highlight it’s strengths. The Feminist narrative exists in the background, but the Australian-based production/crew might be hard to get all those people involved to the degree that their competitors have been. Since it’s so unexpected and was never made for Oscar, they might be treating this more like an unexpected victory lap. Like the TBS, MM:FR requires multiple viewings to truly appreciate (especially the more actively aware you become of the craft, artistry, and everything else that went into it, distinguishing it from its blockbuster peers — the behind the scenes material is really mind-blowing).
TBS actually is in my Top 10 for the year (though I saw less than 40 eligible movies this year) and maybe breaks into my top 5, but the stylistic choices made make it more difficult for me to digest the movie as great cinema as opposed to earning its merit more on message and being able to adapt it’s difficult material into a semi-comprehensible format. I didn’t find the flourishes as funny as some people (I enjoyed Anchorman as an outlier comapred to his other movies), and I still see a lot of McKay’s improv-style fingerprints all over it.
Anyhow, I still feel like this race is closer than many assume and wouldn’t be surprised if it’s only a handful of votes that separate any given movie from the other. After looking at the movies over the last 15 years, this is just a strong year for good/great cinema whether we personally appreciate most of movies here or not.
Did Big Short win any critics awards for BP? Is it common for a movie to win the Oscar with so little critical support?
Lol!
Yes. It’s Gail!
Well, I truly believe that having different opinions, especially about a work of art is something not only totally welcome but extremely productive. I’m really glad 2015 had so many interesting films to offer to cinephiles. It’s just that personally in a year like that The Big Short wouldn’t be my No. 1 choice. It’s nice to see it ranking so high for so many people because if anything it’s a film dealing with really serious issues and managing to still be also enjoyable.
So now we’ve got five weeks to discuss/debate how many Oscars “The Big Short” will walk away with. Until the DGA and WGA announce, for now I’m going with four or all five: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, with Editing as the weakest possibility for the win (again, for now). In fact, here’s how I see the likelihood for wins: 1. Picture, 2. Adapted Screenplay, 3. Director, 4. Supporting Actor, and 5. Editing.
And of course that’s all fluid with five weeks and more guilds yet to hand out their kudos.
Not a real surprise but still a bummer. It’s election year and the industry wants to make a political statement by giving the big prize to The Big Short. It’s a mediocre, very basic film but fine, I get the move. What I wouldn’t get would be McKay winning Best Director. That would be a travesty.
Still though for me major awards groups and especially The Academy Awards should put in mind that it’s supposed to be “The Best” of any respective year they’re honoring. And while something like that is definitely subjective, personally, I think that when you’ve seen the majority of films being nominated or robbed for 2015, you’re someone truly passionate about the art of cinema and try to think of “The Best Film of 2015” it’s highly unlikely that The Big Short is the one. I was rooting for a truly bold, sharp and merciless satire with a serious purpose like Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf Of Wall Street to sweep every Best Picture award there is two years ago but that didn’t happen. Now, as much as I liked The Big Short and as much as I appreciated the witty and clever way it tackled so relevant and quite sadly timeless, extremely important issues, I think it falls short as a character study (rarely a character in the film feels truly fleshed out) and it’s much less coherent in narrative terms than it had to be. Depicting a mad hell like the American capitalism can lead to a hugely interesting but frustrating result such as the one that comes for me with The Big Short, while a brilliant script with a genius filmmaker like Scorsese in TWOWS can make some magic. But ultimately to each their own I guess.
Sasha Stone scored a major win this year among pundits.
Gotta say thank you Sasha. I disagree with your opinions on films in some years and agree on others.
But your passion, analysis and writing is unparallelled.
Keep slaying girl!
You earned our admiration once again this year. You were the only and most DARING PUNDIT this year.
It amazes me how Kris Tapley is saying everyone had TBS winning – wow how arrogant and stubborn some people are.
well, if you never “got” why Mad Max Fury Road is universally acclaimed and had been present on almost every award (including SAG) till the Oscars, maybe, just maybe is that you’re unable to get why a film is important and great.
For example, I think A Beautiful Mind and Crash, are a disgrace to Oscar history, but I do get why they won.
Star Wars snubbed from Best Picture? let’s thank God, this award is voted by professional and not fans.
Spotlight is the lesser films – even if great – on all levels. On all of them. I wonder why people has been so blinded with it… maybe just the theme? It’s a movie with some minor issues, The Big Short doesn’t really have.
And comparing Ruffalo to Bale performances, might be the best example why TBS is the better film.
my rating, using your list… out of 5 stars.
GREAT:
Million Dollar Baby **1/2
GOOD:
Titanic ****1/2
The English Patient **1/2
Shakespeare in Love ****
No Country for Old Men *****
The Departed ****
The Hurt Locker *** 1/2
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King *****
MIXED:
12 Years a Slave *****
—-> THE BIG SHORT *****
American Beauty ****
The King’s Speech *****
A Beautiful Mind *
Argo **
Chicago *****
The Artist ****
Birdman ***
BAD:
Slumdog Millionaire ***
Gladiator ****
Crash *
HIDEOUS:
Braveheart ****
My rank of 2015 nominees (haven’t seen Bridge of Spies, nor Brooklyn)
1. Mad Max: Fury Road *****
2. Room *****
3. The Big Short *****
4. Spotlight **** 1/2
5. The Martian ****
6. The Revenant ***
You’re awesome.
I think Miller is taking Director. If not, McKay.
And on Picture, it’s The Big Short, then Mad Max.
well, Birdman I felt it was a pretentious gimmick, aimed to collect praise from those who would see depth in an otherwise superficial exercise of onanism, destined to show off the directing skills of Iñarritu (same could be said about the overlong “The Revenant”, and basically most of Iñarritu’s filmography). If you’re looking for quality filmmaking, I’d suggest you some other 2014 masterpieces as “The Lego Movie”, “Stranger by the Lake” or “Snowpiercer”. “Birdman was an expertly crafted Big Mac, while the other three are high couisine. 😉
the theme of The Big Short is actually timeless. It could be used, the same screenplay, with crises like 1907 o 1929
as both geographer, development expert (international experience) and cinephile (with studies on cinema itself in my resume), I dare to say, TBS is getting too little rewards, if we have in mind what it makes, and how it makes it. It’s absolutely historical, it may win Best Picture, and might be one of the top 20 winners of all time, in terms of quality and importance. In importance, probably top 10, on the level of Schindler’s List.
You know I loved The Big Short, and I’m happy it can really win. It’s my #3rd film of the year after Mad Max (#1) and Room (#2), and I’m a big McKay fan since Talladega Nights and Anchorman (he gets better without Ferrell, obviously). “The Big Short” is maybe the film the world needs to see, to understand how f*cked up we really are. “The Big Short” basically backs every single thing Bernie Sanders is saying, though… that we can’t afford governments bailing out and protecting professional gamblers and that we should put people first, over lobbies.
Still, I think Trump is unstoppable. It doesn’t matter who he runs against. I thought Jeb Bush was designed to be the next president, but Trump – who scarily reminds me of an Antichrist kind of figure – is copycating the kind of campaign that led people like Adolf Hitler to power. Yeah, even if anyone would find it difficult, to believe, Hitler was democratically elected, based upon a hate speech.
Carol and Hateful 8 masterpieces…… Just your opinion. I thought The big Short was much better than both of those put together. But that is just my opinion.
Mad Max is not this year’s American Hustle. You sound like a real hater of Mad Max. You really think Max is not going to win one single award? You live in a fantasy land.
This. Birdman’s win last year still makes me so happy! In my opinion the best winner since No Country for Old Man (yep, that’s how i pretty much loved everything in Birdman). The Big Short is also a magnificent movie and although is not nowhere near on the same level as Birdman, it’s still going to be a well established winner…
Oh that’s really interesting. I’m a fan of Haynes and especially Tarantino and I thought their films, while better than what most people could do, were in the middle of their own filmographies quality-wise. And THE BIG SHORT and STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON I do think were masterpieces. Hmm… I wonder what we’re looking at differently.
Agree with you aesthetically, but I suppose the argument can be made that among the nominees it’s the “Most 2015,” if that makes sense.
It taps into the zeitgeist in a very blunt and obvious way that lends it a sense of relevance.
Excuse me, but no. I saw The Big Short pretty recently and while I think it’s a really good film in no way do I think that it’s worthy of such praise. First cinematic masterpieces like Carol and The Hateful Eight are flat-out ROBBED of nominations in the PGA and The Oscars in the Best Picture category when they were actually worthy of winning there and now this? If anything, Spotlight or The Revenant would be much worthier choices and Mad Max: Fury Road would be a truly fantastic surprise. For me, The Big Short and Straight Outta Compton (two films I really liked besides all that) weren’t worthy of even being nominated here. The Big Short as a favorite for A Best Picture Oscar, let alone in a year of so many incredible films that aren’t even nominated in the category? Just no.
I’m so happy my favorite film of the year won! When I entered the contest I just had to vote for it!
Totally wrong about Larson and Sly.
They are not giving a 3rd Oscar for Blanchett in a film half of the people thought Mara was the standout (remember she won Cannes?). And not two years after she won eveything possible. What has she won this year?
They also never heard about Hilary Swank and she beat a star in the year’s Best Picture winner. Marion Cotillard was an unknown in Hollywood before La Vie en Rose.
The Room director nomination sold the deal.
It looks like the same face to me.
I slept through this last night. Great news. It’ll be great if my choice from the BP nominees wins two years in a row, even if my favorite movie of the year is never nominated. I got to see THE BIG SHORT when I went to NYC for my birthday, and instantly loved it. So I was sad to hear as more and more people got to see it that it was too confusing for them. I worried that could hurt its numbers and I guess it still might. But clearly white people who know the difference chose it. That’s what matters.
As far as Oscar goes, I think it should be a done deal a week from tonight when it takes home the SAG. How can it not?
For me, personally, TBS would be really middle of the pack among my preferences. This is a good time for me to remember that my tastes simply don’t align with the typical Best Picture winners. Only three winners since 1995 would make my personal top ten list for the year… so this should be an expected outcome!
GREAT:
Million Dollar Baby
GOOD:
Titanic
The English Patient
Shakespeare in Love
No Country for Old Men
The Departed
The Hurt Locker
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
MIXED:
12 Years a Slave
—-> THE BIG SHORT
American Beauty
The King’s Speech
A Beautiful Mind
Argo
Chicago
The Artist
Birdman
BAD:
Slumdog Millionaire
Gladiator
Crash
HIDEOUS:
Braveheart
Ryan Gosling and Melissa Leo were pretty funny, I will say.
I don’t especially dislike THE BIG SHORT but I am baffled that it would be held up as the year’s prime cinematic achievement. Even from a storytelling perspective, I literally don’t understand why we’re supposed to favor sneaky investors who short-sell versus sneaky, fraudulent banks. The “underdog” narrative is so forced there, as all are of the speeches that Pitt and Carell and Bale spit out to make us think that they really care about the common man (I won’t even mention that hideous suicide subplot!).
The only thing that annoyed me more about this movie than its forced underdoggery was its insistence that we are all too moronic to understand how financial instruments work. This dopey, faux-profound caper film is very much the glib, empty celebration of excess that people wrongly accused THE WOLF OF WALL STREET of being. I just don’t get it.
Also, it’s an ugly mess aesthetically!
You’re joking right? Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech or Argo are much worse than TBS. And comparing TBS with shitty Crash is extremely offensive…
Amen!
Wow, I am surprised. And I have to say, props to Sasha for calling this. Damn, just a few days ago I said The Big Short and Mad Max were distant third and fourths for the BP Oscar, but clearly I am underestimating at least TBS.
I’m loving that there is a serious 4 way race for BP. Regardless of what happens with the DGA and SAG, it will still be very unclear what is going to win at the Oscars.
She was Carrell’s boss at Bear Stearns and was in several scenes. She loses everything when Bear goes under.
Yes, there was and her character’s insight was crucial to Ma being rescued. It was a small part but one that left an impression (on me anyhow.) Also, didn’t the African American woman who retrieved files for the
Spotlight reporters have a few lines. It’s not much of a speaking role, but technically . . .
My “Anything-but-the-Revenant” dream came true. As long as Miller can still get Best Director, we good.
The best part of all this, I think
How long is the black woman in The Big Short? I don’t even remember her.
She was only in the movie for a few minutes. My psychic knitting group watched Room together and we didn’t even realize she was on screen because we were pouring coffee and shuffling a deck of cards. By the time we looked back at the TV she was gone.
“The Big Short and Mad Max:Fury Road are the only two films in the Best Picture race that feature black women in speaking roles. The only two.”
Wasn’t there a black woman cop in Room?
Angry are you?
http://deadline.com/2016/01/pga-nominees-breakfast-inarritu-talks-diversity-in-hollywood-1201689100/
Spotlight’s issue is of course immensely important, but the movie itself encourages the feeling that child abuse in the Catholic church is matter that, if not fixed, is at least under better control. ” WHERE DID YOU GET THIS FROM?it ends with a huge list of regions where abuse is happening. The Big short is flashy, has a lot of yelling and cool camera tricks. IF Spotlight loses, it’ll be because its the more subdued issue movie
Anything but Fury Road at this point in this lost Oscars season. Force Awakens being snubbed, #OscarsSoWhite, the sequel. A devastating 1-2 punch to the solar plexus of Oscar’s credibility as an organization that can carry out handing awards to the TRULY best actors and films of the past year. 2016 show is hopelessly, helplessly damaged beyond repair. And I love it, cause it was of AMPAS’ OWN DOING.
Wait, what happened to Meryl Streep winning?
Sasha, super impressive that you called this before the rest of the pundit pack!
I’m absolutely on board with you now and will predict this to win Best Picture, regardless of what happens between now and Oscar night.
This is going to be one of the worst, most forgettable winners ever. AMPAS now proved that they are bunch of wankers who can’t think out of the box. I’m happy that By the Sea bombed and hopefully more Pitt movies bomb. He looks awful with that Botox/botched face lift. BTW, since he’s such SJW, is he going to boycott Oscars now that he has a shot at winning BP? I so doubt it.
Still think Larson and Spotlight script will prevail. Mad Max will get some consolation prize.
Goldderby has been crashing for the past 10 hours. I think it’s time for the LA Times to run it again, its horribly out of date with it’s software (and experts).
With that being said, I think we can all agree the Oscar race is pretty set. As Beverly D’Angelo says to Chevy Chase in National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation: “Clark, it’s over.”
I also want to point out that Mad Max has been getting the worst post-screening reviews since Gravity. Most moviegoers hate it. They don’t understand the hype for this so-called masterpiece, and frankly- neither did I. George Miller got in because it was a pity vote. He should have been dumped for the far superior Ridley Scott, who at least told a story with The Martian. All Mad Max did was tell a car chase story with Charlize Theron looking very drugged up with Tom Hardy. And some random black chick. There was no substantial substance to this bore of a movie. And how can you be a boring action movie? It’s losing all 10 of it’s nominations, sorry. It’s this year’s American Hustle.
The following films will win the Oscars on February 28, according to my new updated readings. And I told people tonight that the winner was going to have the word ‘The’ in the title, and I was right.
Sylvester Stallone won’t win for Creed. The OscarsSoWhite argument has angered a lot of voters who feel very insulted the likes of actors they have nominated have lashed out at them, and for that reason alone they won’t be checking off ballots for a man whose played the same role for 30 years. Plus there’s still bitterness that Rocky won Best Picture over far superior competition in 1976: Network, All the President’s Men and Taxi Driver.
Carol will get it’s comeuppance because as I’ve been saying for months now, Cate Blanchett is winning Best Actress. Voters are not going to give their Leading Trophy to a woman nobody knows and nobody likes. Brie Larson is about as interesting as last season’s Amazing Race. Do you remember it? Neither do voters, and Larson is so annoying with her speeches. She’s not a movie star. She’s a vanilla flavor of the month who will be long forgotten once next season rolls out. She has no real future, unlike her competitors. All she does in Room is look like Jodie Foster’s sister and display a bad case of bulimia on screen. There’s a big anger that Carol failed a best picture nomination and unlike Rooney Mara who doesn’t do a thing to deserve her acting nod, Blanchett delivers. She will represent Carol and the shame that voters chose to pick Room over Haynes masterpiece. It will be her third win and she will be the biggest upset of the night.
To make up for OscarsSoWhite, voters are going to pick Straight Outta Compton for Best Original Screenplay over the bland Spotlight. The fact that the white screenwriters knew how to write for an all black cast is impressive enough, and mainstream audiences saw Compton in theaters- not on a screener they downloaded like McCarthy’s snoozefest.
OSCAR WINNER FORECASTS (99% certain to be right)
Best Picture: The Big Short
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Director: Adam McKay
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Original Screenplay: Straight Outta Compton
Cinematography: The Revenant
Art Direction: The Danish Girl
Costumes: Carol
Original Score: Hateful Eight
Song: Spectre
Film Editing: The Big Short
Visual Effects: Ex Machina
Sound: The Revenant
Sound Editing: The Revenant
Makeup: The Revenant
Haha Jeff Wells is in meltdown after this. Read what he said about last night’s PGA.
“Fun fact: if Adam McKay wins Best Director he will be the first
American-born director to win the Oscar since Kathryn Bigelow won in
2009, five long years ago.”
You meant six years ago. BTW, McCarthy can accomplish that feat too,
Until cronyism ends..
1) Don’t fuck the studio system
2) Listen to the movie guilds.
PS: I endorse Big Short for Best Picture (with Spotlight and Mad Max as 2nd and 3rd respectively).
I mean the oscar Night, could win Adapted Screenplay, supporting actor and BP, like 12 Years a Slave
Boo fucking hoo!
Not quite: Delbert Mann for Marty in 1956 and George Roy Hill for The Sting in 1974 also accomplished that feat.
DISCLAIMER: Using ceremony years not film release year.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Embarrassing. So bloody Pitt is going to win another Oscar as a producer? Is that a joke?
Fun fact: Only once in history the Globes did not nomnate the director, who eventually won the Oscar for Directing (Roman Polański).
What do you mean The Big Short like 12 Years a Slave? 12YaS kept winning BP, and this is the first win for TBS.
Yes the breakfast thing is pretty ridiculous. The Revenant probably won’t win BP, but it surely as hell will have nothing to do with whatever Inarritu said at breakfast
What breakfast are you talking about? All these anonymous breakfast, lunch and dinners at so called “events” seem completely fake. What declaration did he make, an where’s the proof? No one cares about the stupid OscarsSoWhite argument except those with alzheimer’s disease that don’t remember 12 Years a Slave winning less then 2 years ago. Enough.
ryan my comments are in spam limbo
prndandrd,
You’re right, the first draft got posted for a few minutes. Revised draft fixes that paragraph.
Thank you. We caught it, but it’s always good to know AD has careful readers who pay close attention.
I’m VERY tempted to switch my DGA prediction to McKay.
All excellent and completely valid points. Spotlight’s lack of a Bafta norm for Directing and an ACE Eddie nom dooms it.
1. Spotlight is dead. It’s non studio status dooms it.
2. Let’s not discount Brad Pitt’s producer credit and how much clout he holds.
3. Inarritu chiming in on the nominating controversy at the breakfast this morning puts him squarely in the line of fire of the older bloc of voters who we already know are quite cheesed off at the rule changes
“Fun fact #2 – The Big Short and Mad Max are the only two films in the Best Picture race with black women in speaking roles. The only two.”
Umm…Amanda Brugel (Officer Parker in Room) is African on her father’s side.
I’d love ANYTHING split with Miller but if DGA goes for McKay, the BD race is over.
BRAVO Sasha ; you were the first at Gold Derby to call this …I recently watched THE REVENANT and was not overly impressed ; it’s such a long , painful slog through the movie ,…such HARD WORK …I couldn’t wait for it to end
“What probably happened here was that The Revenant and The Big Short sort of divided up their own vote.”
Typo I think? I think you meant to say Mad Max: Fury Road instead of The Big Short, no?
I’d love for the Oscars to split The Big Short for Best Picture and Mad Max: Fury Road’s George Miller for Best Director. They’re my 4th and 3rd favorite films of 2015, respectively. (1st is Sicario and 2nd is Steve Jobs, while 5th is Shaun The Sheep.)
It’s over. The Big Short is going to win BP. Possibly, the worst Oscar winner since “Crash”.
Nice work Sasha. Have been backing The Big Short from 20-1, on your advice. It’s now 3-1 or lower. Still not home, as you point out, but plenty of room for arbitrage.
This is a must win, and if Bale show up at SAG I will start considering the scenario of his second Oscar.
The Big Short like 12 Years a Slave?