A funny thing happened to the Academy Awards last year: a film that had seemed most unlikely to take the top prize swept through the industry. It did not win across the pond in the UK, but Birdman did win the PGA in a shocker, then the DGA, SAG Awards Ensemble, and ultimately the Oscar. Heading into the PGA, no one could have predicted Birdman would win. It just seemed… too dark, too angry, too… modern. Birdman was about the plight of the modern male artist grappling with futility in a world changing all around him, an industry evolving in a distasteful direction. It was similar to Billy Wilder’s Lost Weekend only without the alcohol part. In many ways, Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s follow-up, The Revenant, is not all that removed from Birdman. It just takes place in a different era and the horrors are ratcheted up a few notches. Still, it’s a man in peril struggling for survival amid inhospitable surroundings and paying a steep price to get revenge. Doesn’t Riggan also aim for survival and revenge in Birdman?
We the pundits, though, have long had our fingers on the pulse of a different kind of Oscar voter: the one who soothes himself with tales that take place in the much more understandable realm of the past. Not just any past, but often in the idyllic days where there were clearly definable heroes drawing a clear ethical line between right and wrong, even while the world around them was falling apart. The presence of this recurrent theme has helped us to figure out what voters across Hollywood might be thinking. You can’t just say “Oscar voters” anymore when the whole industry falls in line behind the same film.
The Hurt Locker in 2009, The King’s Speech in 2010, The Artist in 2011, Argo in 2012, Birdman in 2013 can all be described as films that revolve around some lone handicapped protagonist crawling his way out of despair to find success. The Iraq war, England on the eve of World War II, Hollywood changing from silent films to talkies, the hostage crisis in Iran, and Hollywood’s bread-and-butter changing from respectable dramas to superhero movies. While Birdman seems typical for what Oscar and other industry voters might go for, it was atypical as an Oscar winner.
Our stat model for predicting The Big Short to win the PGA is one that almost every Oscar frontrunner has had: SAG Awards Ensemble nomination, ACE Eddie nod, DGA, PGA, BAFTA Picture and Director nominations. Certainly both Boyhood and Birdman fit. There was no way to exclude either one of them if you were looking objectively at the stats last year. The only slight difference was that Birdman was lacking an Oscar editing nomination. That matters less because the voting members in that branch are less (as well as the fact that muddied the water: Birdman boasted incessantly about being one long unedited shot). What mattered more were the 6,000 voting members of ACE (who rightly realized that the “fact” of a 2-hour unedited shot actually involved dozens of invisible edits). If 6,000 people think your movie is the best of the year, that means something. Still, there was something about Birdman that made me and others dismiss it as a winner. What was it? It seemed… too modern, too experimental and avant-garde.
Now, The Big Short has followed Birdman’s surprise PGA win with another total longshot prediction. Even though I had it as a predicted winner heading into the PGA Awards, deep down I didn’t think it would win. I thought it would either be Spotlight or The Revenant. That it’s become the new Best Picture frontrunner is as surprising as Birdman’s late-breaking emergence last year. We still don’t know if The Big Short will take the DGA or SAG Awards Ensemble. In both of those instances, we will once again have thousands of people voting. 15,000 in DGA and 160,000 in SAG-AFTRA. Those are huge numbers. SAG, in particular, is the wild card.
The DGA will likely vote more for the film they like rather than the big name. So far the only intel we have is that 7,000 producers voted on The Big Short on a preferential ballot. Even though many of us still thought Boyhood would win until the very last — mainly because of BAFTA but more because we were all having a hard time grappling with Birdman as Oscar-friendly enough, Boyhood just didn’t fit with what we think we know about Academy members.
That The Big Short might be the film that prevails is another wake-up call to us pundits that the industry voters are moving in a slightly different direction — away from nostalgia and toward a different kind of emotional register. They did have that spectacular run starting back in 2006 with The Departed, then No Country for Old Men, then Slumdog Millionaire and finishing with The Hurt Locker. After that, they seemed to revert to more typical expectations, choosing The King’s Speech, The Artist, and Argo. If we have two consecutive years with Birdman and The Big Short, it seems like this could be the beginning of another interesting run of films that don’t seem like “Oscar movies.”
The Big Short certainly does stand out amid other brilliant films up for Best Picture in one of the most exciting lineups in a very long while. Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant are two daring spectacles that manage to build an epic blockbuster vision without much computer assistance. The Revenant’s biggest visual effect is the natural world and George Miller built nearly all of his own elements for Mad Max. Then there’s Spotlight, as smooth and perfect of a film that has ever landed in the race. The Martian is still the most entertaining film of the year and the only one in the lineup that leaves you feeling unadulterated joy and optimism for humanity by the end of it. The immersive Brooklyn and Steven Spielberg’s meditative Bridge of Spies are the closest examples of “Oscar movies” in the race. And they too are brilliant. The terrifying and moving Room might have stood a stronger chance, given its position after winning the Toronto audience award, but by the very nature of its subject and style is probably regarded as the “smallest” of the nominees. So it’s no wonder The Big Short stands out. Of all of this year’s distinguished contenders, it is the only film that gets its charge from what’s happening in the world right now. Like Birdman, The Big Short is not about the distant past; it couldn’t be more about today.
To have the Best Picture race cleave so close to the present day with the past two winners is odd, though both The Hurt Locker and The Departed certainly fit that contemporary bill. For many of us, the filmmaking of Birdman seemed too innovative for the traditional, drama loving Academy and yet that is exactly what they reached for. At first glance, Adam McKay’s dizzying, unique tragicomedy also seems too innovative, too strange, too inventive for the traditional voters, and yet, here we are.
It’s always a good thing when unwritten but adhered-to rules like “they will never go for that” get broken. With three strong contenders this year, that exciting possibility applies: Mad Max, The Revenant and yes, The Big Short. Maybe it doesn’t mean much. Maybe it means everything.
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Yeah, it’s 7.5/10 for me, which is also solid in my book. But it could go up to 8/8.5 after re-watches. Doubtful that it could ever get to 9.
Spotlight is pretty much all-male, except for McAdams (it’s certainly way more male-centric than 12 Years a Slave), has great actors (Ruffalo and Keaton are both former Oscar nominees, Tucci definitely qualifies, in my opinion, and probably McAdams and Schreiber too), screened early and could easily be considered important. The better point to make, here, I think, is that it’s better to be topical, rather than important, which even 12 Years a Slave could lay claim to, though other recent winners, such as The Artist, The King’s Speech, No Country for Old Men, and so on, were far from topical or important, in my opinion.
Also, The Artist, The Hurt Locker, 12 Years a Slave, and so on, didn’t fly under the radar at all. Just because something’s happened for the last two years (but with no particular regularity before that), it doesn’t mean it will again. Your first point is the only one I find to be a true, strong AND objective argument against Spotlight. The others are either subjective or based on 2-3 year old trends that are completely unconfirmed when you go further back.
Sasha respectfully a real ‘new breed of best picture;’ is specifically a film Genre like ‘The Martian, Fury Rd, Straight Outta Compton, Beast of No Nation, these are examples of REAL film types that have NEVER won before..esp the first two i mentioned here.,,
Ooooo how I wish u prediction come true Gail I really do. Unfortunately I assume? U prediction for best director is flawed ridley Scott unjustly disgracefully snubbed from even getting best director nomination still u prediction paints a realistic rational perspective on state of the race nominees and we’ll unfortunately it too rational and common sense for Oscar to agree with u this year hope I wring though and u end up being right Gail!
No they are not.
The Martian and The Revenant *are* business as usual.
I wanted Emory Cohen to win big!! he’s going to be the next big thing!!
Spot on!
7) Be produced by bloody Brad Pitt. It must really sting his wife that he’s a success producing mediocre Oscar baits while she’s bombing with any genre she directs.
Agreed. Tons of business as usual, MMFR, Martian and Revenant notwithstanding.
How’s something as boring and been there done that AMPAS friendly as Big Snore “a new breed if winner”? That kind of crap wins every year.
Any time dear. It’s important to smile right now, especially during a season like this.
Of ll the movies nominated The big short was the ona that felt more fresh to me. It´s in fact my favorite movie this year. I got really emotional with this movie, I travel all the spectrum, from laugh to anger to hope, disappointement, fear and indignation. And then It kept me thinking about how greedy the human been can be. With Spotlight I felt indigantaion and disgust, but I’m a catholic, Is beatifly executed, but not everyone can identify. Sure is great to see how the investigative journalism is done and or that is great, but the theme is not as universal. I’m from Costa Rica and I can rely more from The Big Short than with any other picture. I’ll be rooting for TBS next Sunday in the SAG, the week after in the DGA and February 28 at the Oscars.
Heated discussion about The Revenant. I never even thought of it, because honestly it’s just a nice revenge movie to me, no matter what they tell me it means. I don’t like Inarritu’s movies much but this one I actually like. But then he comes and tells everyone that his movie should be watched in a temple… I don’t even know what to say to that!
Really, the only thing that comes to mind when I think about The Revenant is a feeling of sadness for the fact that DiCaprio will win for this movie, instead than for Wolf of Wall Street. It’s really sad. Really. Literally.
Rooting for her too!
If I could have only one wish come true on Oscar night (and since Carol, a masterpiece, was robbed of a BP nomination), it would be Sairose Ronan for the win. Every other award could go to anyone else, and it wouldn’t matter to me that much as long as Ronan won Best Actress. But I think I’m gonna be disappointed.
So c’mon SAG, let’s get the ball rolling!!!!!
Room and Brooklyn missed SAG Ensemble. That put Larson and Ronan on equal footing for a SAG win in Best Actress. SAG will be the first indication of ACADEMY cross-over to see who they might prefer between the two actresses (GG doesnt really count). SAG voters may know Ronan moreso than Larson. Also, Brooklyn has struck with the box office whle Room hasn’t yet.
I wonder. If Ronan somewhow manages SAG and then gets BAFTA, then we’ll have quite the race on our hands. Yes, Larson won the GG and is the new American sweetheart (sort of) and campaigns a lot. But Ronan is more well-known among Academy types. She also has campaigned a lot and is so charming.
The only major stumbling block I see that dampens Ronan’s chances is that Abrahamson director nod. That definitely shows Room strength, even though Brooklyn is also BP-nommed.
What upsets me most is that, while I enjoyed TBS and found it entertaining, if also messy/flawed, it’s my least favorite of the “8”.
The Martian, Mad Max, The Revenant, Spotlight, Brooklyn, Room, Bridge of Spies … they either blew me away or I found so much to admire about their craft or I just really, really loved them.
I also love non-BP nommed Carol, Creed, Sicario, Inside Out, among others.
TBS was a solid 3/4 stars, B/B-, 7-7.5/10 for me. Good cast. Slick editing. But the fact that it’s the BP frontrunner and that it is literally my least fave of an admittedly strong “8” just really bums me out. It’s been such a great year.
Lol i loved it so much when it came out. But havent seen it recently so do not know how well it holds up. I also used to be in love with Dev Patel so there was that.
How are the big short and Spotlight going to split votes with a preferential ballot?
“in one of the most exciting lineups in a very long while. ”
no.
The train has started its run and nothing will stop it. SAG is the next win for The Big Short.
So was The Hunger Games. One of the most boring blockbusters I’ve ever seen. The Maze Runner was so much better.
The Avengers – I LOVE IT
Except for that, yes. 🙂
dude points to be taken
1)from seeing movies itself we know its difficult to shoot they don’t need to show the crew explicitly.Its as if they are giving ultimatum like “look we suffered making this movie so you better give us oscar”.
2)”Its much more than revenge flick” is what we need to feel after watching movie and not after them telling to us.Not everyone who watch the movie sees this video.People will only think two things
a)man leo struggled a lot give him oscar.
b)bear attack and horse scenes were awesome.
3)you are in awards site so you should see a movie marketing with critical eye and not think “ooh these guys are soo good and kind”. its the time of oscar voters to fill in ballot and so the studio’s like fox do this crap and after oscars are done none of them gives a shit.
They’ve gotten it right, and, blasphemous it will be to utter it, the MTV Movie Awards have embarrassed the Oscars the past few years as well with far better choices.
Helped by the honorable white man 🙂
Best analysis of the race I’ve read yet. I hope your “new breed” theory is correct because it will make for some interesting races in the future – until the next slump, anyway.
Which is what I have been saying, The Big Short’s closest relative is, in fact, Crash. Mind, I didn’t hate Crash and I don’t hate TBS. Its just that there are other much better movies this year.
ditto here
also agree
Thanks for making me smile in an otherwise boring and kind of annoying thread 🙂
It happens quite often, actually. It’s more common for the Ensemble Cast winning film to take home at least one individual acting award too from SAG. This is what puts Christian Bale in better standing at SAG than elsewhere, but I think that’ll be his first and final award of the season at most. My money’s still on Mark Rylance.
I do! That was one of the worst winners since the beggining of 21st century! I honestly don’t know what i’m not seeing on it…the Oscars in 2007 had an extraordinary and unusual masterpiece and then somehow they ruined everything with 2008.
Well, i just loved everything about Birdman and like i said a few days ago, it’s the best winner since No Country For Old Man. While i also enjoyed TBS, it’s not on the same level of brilliance as Birdman but either way both are worthy winners.
Who the hell hates Slumdog ?? What ?
MArtian was the most complete movie of the year for me. Definitely not more entertaining than say AOU or TFA.
I come here to warn everyone not to listen to all the pundits this year. MAJOR surprises are going to happen, and I know. Not only am I the best psychic in the Midwest, I just found out I am nominated for Best Psychic in North America by the London Psychic’s Association. Hear me now, the Oscar winners are below—–
BEST PICTURE
The Martian
The Big Short and Spotlight are going to split votes; they’re too small and confusing. Mad Max and Revenant are too divided, either people love them or hate them. Brooklyn and Room are box-office failures. When I asked a stranger in the grocery store what he thought about Brooklyn, he snapped “I’m strictly a West Coaster!” And Bridge of Spies might as well be called Bridge of Lies- it’s an old, tired and washed out story that nobody cares about. The Martian is the only movie that everybody can holds hand together on and know it’s the best movie not only of 2015, but in the past 30 years. When asked what his favorite movie of the year was, Matt Damon said “Of course of the movies I screened, I would have to say by far The Martian. And that’s not because I’m in the movie. I seriously didn’t give a fuck about the other movies. And Ridley agrees.” Well there you have it, I don’t think I can be any more convincing then that.
BEST DIRECTOR
(Write-In) Ridley Scott, The Martian
This will be a historical win of epic proportions. For the first time since the 30s, a write in champion will prevail. Th reason? No one else qualifies as a worthy candidate. Tom McCarthy and Adam McKay are considered jokes- and most voters are not going to check their names off. George Miller is not a legend, despite people thinking that because he directed Babe twenty years ago, he somehow deserves to be recognized for directing a movie that exploits women to the highest degree and was the most boring action movie I’ve ever seen. Alejandro just won, and his pompous attitude at press events has turned the Democratic voters way off. Abrahamsson is lucky he got picked from the hat. So most are writing secret ballots to get Ridley to win, and Cheryl Boone Isaacs has already approved these. She didn’t want to make a big statement because of the OscarsSoWhite issue, but be prepared to have your jaws drop when Scott wins. I will be the only pundit who got this right.
BEST ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Martian
Golden Globe and National Board of Review winner Damon will prevail easily. Why? He’s also overdue. He’s only on his third acting nomination and yet has been overlooked so many times. Unlike DiCaprio, Damon actually has a part with dialogue people can understand. The number one complaint I hear from voters (especially in LA): “Why are we giving Leonardo DiCaprio an Oscar for sleeping on screen?” Nobody thinks it’s a great performance. But Damon has supporters, and because nobody cares about Bryan Cranston, Michael Fassbender or Eddie Redmayne- Matt is the one who will win.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Guilt and shame will cause voters to punch Blanchett’s name over the dull and unknown Larson. Blanchett if you notice has been everywhere recently. She’s also doing the Lucille Ball project with the legend Aaron Sorkin. Larson will be forgotten by spring. Ronan also is too pinched and pasty to win this, and Rampling shot herself in the foot by making those controversial comments – and she’s too old. Oh, and Jennifer Lawrence won’t win because the industry now knows she’s dating David O. Russell and he’s the reason she keeps getting cast in all his project over more deserving women (including the independent Greta Gerwig, who was turned down by Russell on set to her face because, as he put it- “I don’t find you attractive enough to sleep with.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
It will be here voters give the action film something, and that’s where Hardy comes in. He’s been shaking a lot of steak eater’s hands in New York, and chuckling when they all say “You were much better then your costar.” If you think the voters are actually going to give Sylvester Stallone an Oscar for playing the same role he’s been doing since birth, you’re out of your mind. And Christian Bale did nothing in The Big Short but look loopy and high the entire time- glass eye MY eye!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rooney Mara, Carol
When Mara’s name is called, she’s going to kiss Blanchett on the lips and the cameras will get a perfect photo of the winning lesbian duo. I just wish they would announce their engagement already!
That’s it for now, but remember – I AM the Queen Mother! I am the one to listen to this year!
____________________________
Winner: Best Psychic- Midwest Film Critics Society (Excluding Illinois)
Nominee: Best Psychic in North America – London Psychic’s Association
The Academy was hammered with a sledge on the head by the LOTR trilogy so they couldn’t miss out rewarding the final film. Titanic was typical Oscar, an epic film with huge box office.
I love TBS but didn’t like “Birdman”.
”It’s like so Oscar baity.” I guess people see what they want to see. For me, it was a fascinating, behind-the-scenes documentary that shows you that ”The Revenant” is much more than a revenge and survival story. In keeping with that, this isn’t your typical making-of movie. DiCaprio discusses his challenge in playing a largely nonverbal character, but by and large, it didn’t have any interviews with his white co-stars, like Tom Hardy, Domhnall Gleeson or Will Pouter. Inarritu and this documentary mostly tackled ”The Revenant’s” themes: how the fur trade and Western capitalism devastated the environment; how climate change affects the world; and how Native Americans are often depicted on film, as seen thru the eyes of movie’s First Nations actors, like Forrest Goodluck and Arthur Redcloud.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJfTfsXFbLk
In fact … the humor elements I’d say really add to the gravitas; it’s actually brilliant how Affleck juxtaposed the glitzy Hollywood Galas with the hostage crisis. Hollywood “triumphs” in getting the hostages, but of course it totally fails to actually fix anything, and throughout the whole movie there’s subtle quips about how “Hollywood” isn’t as smart as it thinks it is. Argo is a far more self-aware movie than people give it credit for, and it actually works beautifully as an elegiac piece, like in those haunting scenes of the trees with the yellow ribbons: the yellow ribbons just look so, well, unglamourous and kind of “empty” … it’s pretty strong commentary on how Americans commodify/react to world events they know nothing about. I actually loved the part where the Americans “escape” at the airport by showing the Space movie placards to the security officers … the fact that the officers were so excited about the movie was in all honesty pretty heartwarming and adorable, and maybe even hinted that although Star Wars is in a lot of ways a whitewashed appropriation of colonial narrative, well there’s still the potential for commonality. But what happens? In the end it was just a ploy by the Americans, who come off in that scene as cheap and manipulative – desperate, we don’t blame them, we’re even rooting for them to survive – but it’s still dirty. Affleck’s character himself is never celebratory in the movie. There’s really no triumph at the end, it’s so melancholic. Whatever the accusations that the movie won because “hollywood loves movies about itself being the good guy”, whether or not they’re warranted, is a commentary on Hollywood’s myopic and self-congratulatory views, and not on the movie, which I’d say promulgates the opposite.
Also, Argo was excellent, and even with its humor elements I thought it had more gravitas than Lincoln, which I can’t fully shake off as just being too whitewashy. The only other nominee I thought deserved the win more was never going to get it – Amour.
Shakespeare in Love deserves to win any year, every year
Those movies may not be any great shakes but there are still better then what won in the early years of the Academy. The only good wins are All Quiet on The Western Front and It Happen One Night.
IMO, Birdman is the worst BP winner since before Wings.
I just wish Inarritu had reversed the release dates of Birdman and Revenant.
I said it predicts the two biggest upsets. I didn’t say anything about the ones it got wrong. I know the percentages, don’t worry!…
there is a documentary “unseen world” or something like that on 20th century fox youtube channel about making of revenant..40 minutes long….its like soo oscar baity..they are linking movie with native americans and with oil companies exploiting land and natural resources exploitation…I cant help but think that since this is the time of oscars they are using it as oscar campaign..it was soo obvious….I was like laughing….they made innaritu sit and explain the making and spiritual elements…..it was super oscar baity..its very clever how they are using difficult production for oscar campaign..usually films with difficult productions end up like waterworld or like world war z..not like this
American Hustle says hi 🙂
But I think if the PGA had gone to Gravity that a number of AMPAS members would have switched to Gravity for BP to be “part of the winning team.”
That’s right. I am one of them.
“but it made 392 million worldwide with mostly younger audience who after watching movie wanted to be like him..it was no cautionary tale it felt like a success story..i saw youtube videos where 12-13 yr olds were aspiring to be jordan belfort..thats messed up”
Yeah, I’m sorry, that’s on them. Those are stupid young people that, sooner or later, would come upon (and embrace) those thoughts anyway, since they’re open to them in the first place, regardless of whether it’s from this movie or something else.
And I, of course, completely disagree that it felt like a success story. I don’t even feel there’s a need for me to argue that (especially since it’s been argued before, by Sasha and others.)
“Same thing is happening with oscar campaign for the revenant…they are publicizing it as the environmental awareness/global warming cautionary ta le kinda movie…but in the end if you watch the movie it feels like a revenge flick with awesome locations and cool shots and visual effects thats all…i don’t feel like i need to care for the environment after watching the movie….People speak about human perseverance after the movie and not environmental awareness..”
This I actually agree with. I feel like this angle has mostly been tacked on by critics. I don’t feel the movie actually makes a convincing case for its being about the environment at all. (I’m planning on rewatching and maybe it’ll be clearer to me then – we’ll see!) Unlike WOWS, which makes its message extremely clear, by the end, almost too obviously, even, in that final scene.
but the ideology of wolf of wall street got messed up….leonardo kept saying that if we are authentic about portrayal of these people then audience will understand..but it made 392 million worldwide with mostly younger audience who after watching movie wanted to be like him..it was no cautionary tale it felt like a success story..i saw youtube videos where 12-13 yr olds were aspiring to be jordan belfort..thats messed up
Same thing is happening with oscar campaign for the revenant…they are publicizing it as the environmental awareness/global warming cautionary tale kinda movie…but in the end if you watch the movie it feels like a revenge flick with awesome locations and cool shots and visual effects thats all…i don’t feel like i need to care for the environment after watching the movie….People speak about human perseverance after the movie and not environmental awareness..
these two movies have 1 thing in common they were not able to communicate their agenda/message in more positive way and ultimately they end up communicating wrong(bad) messages
1)I want to be like jordan belfort
2)No matter how tough environment is i will break it to survive….
TBS is emotional at times because we see these people believing the system and thinking that they bet wrong but the system is corrupt and it ends on a sad note.Given that the movie sparks some conversation in election “the happy ending for the movie lies in results of US elections”..so in other words its happy ending is in reality.
Not seen Fifty Shades of Grey yet, but I plan to see it soon. (Since it’s Oscar nominated – for thoroughness’ sake. I might have passed otherwise.)
I’m going to cry if Saoirse Ronan doesn’t win the Oscar. I think Brie Larson doesn’t deserve the Oscar for Room. She simply doesn’t.
the most entertaining film of the year was 50 spanks of grey, in my opinion.
Rylance? Definitely not. Third at worst.
Exactly. A fine, fine film.
Ahem…Brokeback Mountain was better than SPR. I mean, those book-end present-day scenes in SPR are pretty terrible and ruin it for me. I’d rather watch Full Metal Jacket, a far superior war film
And yet the world seems to go on….fancy that!
Half of the film she was bloated and overly sensitive, the other half she was whiny and uninterested….perfection 8-x
OK, fair enough – let’s wait for SAG. Good point! But if she wins SAG (which I am quite sure she will) then you have to admit she’s a lock (and probably isn’t even losing BAFTA, in that case, to be honest.)
I’m getting all of these counter-examples, I see. 🙂 But I still think the majority (of people who like either) like both, based on what I’ve seen so far.
Interesting…
Well, you can strongly believe in something and still admit it’s probably not a lock just because of that, based strictly on the evidence. 🙂
Someone likes hyperbole!
Sasha, 12 Years a Slave was 2013 and Birdman was 2014. 12YaS does still “revolve around some lone handicapped protagonist crawling his way out of despair to find success.”
Everyone keeps saying that Brie Larson’s a lock over Ronan, but I don’t buy it. Is she favored? Sure. But a lock? No. If SAG goes to Larson it’s closer to a lock. But Larson’s performance is not the kind of “sure thing” of DiCaprio or Patricia Arquette etc. She doesn’t have *that* much leverage. And frankly while I think “Room” may be *slightly* more respected than Brooklyn (gauging from the director nomination), Ronan may be more widely seen as having the better performance. There is still a possibility that Ronan surprises everyone with a win at SAG. And if that happens, I think she has the Oscar as well.
I hated Birdman with the violent intensity of a solar flare.
How you can be an OSCAR frontrunner?
1. Be from a big studio. Not a small indie one. (BIRDMAN, TBS and not BOYHOOD AND SPOTLIGHT)
2. Fly under the radar and be un-predicted by chickened out pundits who only go with safe bets (BIRDMAN, TBS and not BOYHOOD AND SPOTLIGHT)
3. Be either about the industry (BIRDMAN, ARGO) or be important (12 YAS and TBS)
4. Screen early (BIRDMAN) or around November max (TBS)
5. Have a lot of great actors (BIRDMAN, ARGO, TBS, 12 YAS)
6. Be male centric (12 YAS, ARGO, BIRDMAN, TBS)
No kidding. The Argo situation is known far and wide as “the Canadian Caper.” In another reality, there’s a version of Argo with a bigger part for Victor Garber.
Argo. The best of a sorry lot of nominees. Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, Hunger Games shamefully and shamelessly snubbed, miles above any of the other nominees.
Seconded. Bridge Of Spies winning anything is wrong.
I guess I’m in the minority then: Birdman yes, TBS no.
Ronan’s almost a lock already (sorry, Paddy – I believe in locks being a thing) to lose to Larson. Compton might win screenplay, I guess… but I very much doubt it. And I have a bad feeling that The Force Awakens will get nothing (Ennio should win score.) I think you’re being way too optimistic for its chances. Other than that, looks good!… (I have no real opinion on Best Song, though.)
I love Spotlight and will be thrilled if it wins SAG even if it doesn’t win anything else.
Anecdotally, my sister, who goes to the theaters to watch 30 – 40 quality films every year (she lives a few blocks from a great art house venue) will not go to Spotlight. She’s Catholic, mass every week. Cool, sophisticated woman. Can’t bear to watch it.
A couple of things. I wonder how widespread that feeling is within the industry, people who can’t bear to watch it. Conversely, I suspect many in the industry, who are not from Catholic backgrounds, understand how very difficult Spotlight is. Sasha’s comment in her excellent essay seems to imply that Spotlight is not about right now. In what world is the molestation of children not right now?
The only times I agreed with AMPAS was Silence of the lambs, American beauty and Birdman.
I loved Slumdog but it wasn’t my favourite that year.
I’m one of few it seems that really liked Crash but again it wasn’t my favourite that year either.
I hated Shakespeare in love, especially as Elizabeth was a far better movie that year, and no way should Gwyenth have beaten Cate.
I really disliked the artist, how gimmicky was that. And kings speech was so pedestrian and formulaic : harmless but forgettable.
I think Bigelow got her Oscars for the wrong film (zero dark much better than hurt locker) and having seen the a Revenant, whilst I loved Birdman, think Inarritu did too. Come to think of it Scorsese too.
Inside Out, Star Wars, even Fury Road… The Final Girls for me… The Hateful Eight… probably others, too. But, yeah, The Martian is just behind them – because I didn’t think it was particularly funny or quite as incredibly interesting as its most avid supporters seem to think. I thought it was pretty funny in places, and rather interesting, but not really that fascinating.
I need to rewatch it, anyway.
“I would argue that Wolf of Wall Street presented a much better view of the financial world and personal journey a few years ago. But it was much funnier, in a dark, dark way!”
I agree.
It definitely feels like Birdman supporters are mostly rooting for The Big Short this year – which, by the way, would have been a useful observation for me to have made earlier on. 🙂 Strange, therefor, that I didn’t quite love it too (though I did like it)…
“As Sasha said the PGA stat almost came undone when gravity and 12 years tied. One more vote for Gravity and PGA wouldn’t have matched Oscar that year.”
This is and always has been a bullshit argument.
“It’s not guaranteed. Anyone who thinks TBS is not Oscar BP favourite now is silly. Anyone who thinks it is guaranteed (without hearing from DGA and SAG) is just as silly”
Of course it’s not guaranteed.
Yeah, exactly. I still think it could happen, but it’s unlikely.
But SAG Ensemble predicts the two biggest upsets in recent memory (Crash and SiL.)
It might, but it’d be an upset, still. Stats-wise.
We agree on most of that (except that I easily give it to SiL over SPR.)
Slumdog Millionaire and American Beauty are also on mine. The other two I rate as pretty good movies, though definitely not great, especially as BP winners.
My list (for hated that I love) is almost endless… 🙂
Yeah, but he seems more like a critics’ darling. He could still win, but my money, if I HAD to bet on one of the nominees now, definitely wouldn’t be on him.
Don’t most SAG Ensemble winners also win an acting award? Nowhere near all of them, but still a majority, if I remember correctly.
“I fail to recall the last time any actor received a significant boost simply from being in the likely Best Picture winner.”
Indeed.
“Not that I’m not considering Christian Bale. Unlike you, I believe it useful to keep all options open.”
Likewise.
Agree with everything except Bale being locked.
Inside out was the most entertaining film of the year but the Martian was one of them.
Fair enough, but if The Big Short wins the SAG as well, I definitely think you should switch, regardless of whether it wins the DGA too, or not.
“I disagree, but you’re entitled to your opinion. I think Snowpiercer was by far the best movie of 2014, and no one ever NOMINATED it.”
Snowpiercer was am overrated mess. But you’re entitled to your opinion.
Not a factor.
Best movie of the year by far and the best performance!!
So you don’t like Spotlight, Ryan? 🙁
“The Martian is still the most entertaining film of the year”
Disagree. It’s one of them, but definitely not THE most entertaining (in my opinion). Not even just among the BP nominees.
New predictions
Best picture: the big short
Best director: Adam McKay for the big short
Best actor; Leonardo dicaprio for the revenant
Best actress: saorise Ronan for Brooklyn
Supporting actor: Christian bale for the big short
Supporting actress: Alicia vikander for the Danish girl
Original screenplay: straight outta Compton
Adapted screenplay: the big short
Animated feature: inside out
Animated short film: sanjay’s super team
Live action short film: everything will be okay
Documentary feature: Amy
Documentary short subject:, a girl in the river: the price of forgiveness
Foreign film: son of Saul
Cinematography: the revenant
Production design: mad max fury road
Costume design: mad max fury road
Film editing: the big short
Makeup and hairstyling: mad max fury road
Sound editing: Star Wars
Sound mixing: the revenant
Visual effects: Star Wars and mad max fury road. Tie!
Original score: John Williams: Star Wars the force awakens
Original song: writing on the wall from spectre
Anything other than “over-the-hill-white-guy in showbiz puts on big show in Act 3, saves his soul and his world” is an improvement over 3 of the last 4
I really don’t think The Big Short is “a new breed of best picture winner”. Come on, we’ve been watching movies like TBS winning at the oscars for what, 20 years?! Big story, important subject, different point of views, “different direction”, delivers a powerful message, etc. The only difference is it presents itself in an ironic, kind of funny way. It does have some great tricks, some smart moves that puts It above those similar movies that have come before, but it is essentially the same thing. While it may appear as a corageous choice, I would argue that Wolf of Wall Street presented a much better view of the financial world and personal journey a few years ago. But it was much funnier, in a dark, dark way! That win would take serious “balls”! That one would be a real difference maker. This year the only film that would truly shake things up if it won is Mad Max. Because of the message it would send to the studios – that we don’t hate blockbusters, just make them this beautiful; because of the affirmation and validation of the female action hero that has been brewin since long before Katniss, in the times of Ripley and Sarah Connor; because of its feminism; because of what it would mean for actions movies in general; and if that isn’t enough, then simply because out of all the movies in the running, the one who a college professor would most likely chose to introduce to a young film school student as a subject of pure study is Mad Max: Fury Road. And isn’t that what the oscars are ultimately all about? Excellence in film making! Or at least it should be.
Also, ya know, her performance was really good and deserving. Just sayin’.
From the 5 movies, which one do you not refer has an absolute dreck BP winner? Just curious…
I’m still shocked that Slumdog Millionaire won 8 freakin Oscars! It was a manipulative, fake and tedious movie. Just awful! The Artist wasn’t actually that hated and it’s a good winner when compared to all 2011 competition…
Very good article Sasha. Birdman’s win last year was the best thing they could do and now it seems that they are trying to embrace different styles which is fantastic! This year’s lineup is pretty strong, much stronger than last year which only two movies really excited me (Birdman of course and Whiplash). I can honestly say that i’m happy for this year’s choices but this is just my opinion. Even though i loved everything about Mad Max, TBS deserves to win frankly. It is the most important movie of the bunch and it was really a powerful, clever and honest work by McKay. Seriously, everything was filmed in such a sublime way that i can fully understand why the industry is supporting it. I agree it’s probably a hard movie to embrace but i believe time will prove that we have in front of us a really special movie.
Hope so but Larson is too good at campaigning, too thirsty, she can’t lose.
The Big Short is this year’s Crash. Another cunning social drama without cinematic virtues, just populist sketches. Anything else would be a better choice for Best Picture. Even (ugh) Room.
As Sasha said the PGA stat almost came undone when gravity and 12 years tied. One more vote for Gravity and PGA wouldn’t have matched Oscar that year.
It’s not guaranteed. Anyone who thinks TBS is not Oscar BP favourite now is silly. Anyone who thinks it is guaranteed (without hearing from DGA and SAG) is just as silly
Not arguing the stat or possibility that it could happen, just throwing in some history:
The DGA didn’t initially award on a calendar year, so Joe Mankiewicz won for “A Letter to Three Wives” (for the 1948-49 award calendar) and then won for “All About Eve” in 1950 — with Robert Rossen squeezing in a win for “All the King’s Men” (for the balance of the 1949 film year). So while Mankiewicz won Oscars and DGAs for both films, the screwy scheduling of the DGA only allowed him back-to-back Oscars.
In the history of the DGA, there have been about 35 instances of directors getting consecutive nominations. Sidney Lumet holds the record with four during his fantastic streak of of mid-1970s films (which I’ve counted as three instances of consecutive nominations: 1973-74, 1974-75, and 1975-76).
Eight times has a director won the DGA the year after being nominated:
– William Wyler (1958 nom, 1959 win)
– Billy Wilder (1959, 1960)
– Tony Richardson (1962, 1963)
– Mike Nichols (1966, 1967)
– George Roy Hill (1972, 1973)
– Steven Spielberg (1997, 1998)
– Peter Jackson (2002, 2003)
– Clint Eastwood (2003, 2004)
Robert Wise — coming off “The Sound of Music” in 1965 — is the only director before Alejandro G. Inarritu to land a nomination the year after winning the DGA, getting a nod for “The Sand Pebbles” in 1966. Which, even without a win or whether you like him, still renders Inarritu’s accomplishment impressive.
Moreso since 2010, when both AMPAS and PGA switched to preferential ballot voting. This makes it hard to create vote splitting scenarios.
If this was 2001, I would believe that Spotlight winning SAG Ensemble would mean a Best Picture win. However, things have changed. Oscars decide Best Picture winners via a preferential vote. Acting branch is the largest branch at 18 percent, but your film has to earn 51 percent to win in a preferential voting system. Spotlight needs more than just any SAG Award (individual performance or ensemble) to actually win.
I always start from the premise that AMPAS NEVER reward the best film of the year. Sometimes it happens but almost always it does not
Oops that’s wrong. Since 2003 (LOTR: Return of the King). I agree with the Academy on the big movies.
If The Big Short won Best Picture this year, it would be the first time my #1 matched with Best Picture since… 1998 (Titanic).
Rylance is indeed a threat. Other actors know who he is and he’s had a great year, what with Wolf Hall and Bridge of Spies. However, that said, I still think Stallone has the best story of all. Bale could win SAG ensemble because BIG SHORT like SPOTLIGHT is definitely an ensemble film. Hard to award one actor over the others in ensemble films, although it has happened before.
I believe that it may be. or i hope so! the actors branch may make a difference #spotlighteam
I disagree in that Stallone has the best story of all the nominees. He’s been up and down, mostly down, but he’s still here and evidently still capable of pulling something off. That’s a scenario/story made for the Academy. He may not win SAG but he has an excellent chance at the oscar, plus he was really good.
Only half the films which win SAG ensemble go on to win Oscar BP too. “Spotlight ” has a good chance of winning SAG ensemble because I believe it has the best performance by an ensemble cast. That doesn’t mean it will Oscar BP though.
If Spotlight wins the Sag ensemble, it will win the best picture Oscar.
oh i hurt too. always remember jack saying it, would win fair amount of money that innocent year if not for the c,,,
….cant say it, wheres jack when u need him
Oh, you mean in terms of upset! I remember I was shocked when SPR lost but I think the biggest shock is “Crash” because of how bad that film was. Shakespeare in Love is a very good film but “Crash” is so shocking bad.
Um….unless you’re Canadian….
I haven’t seem TOE, but “Shakespeare in Love” was a very fun film with tongue in its cheek.
“Citizen Kane”, “Vertigo”, “Singin’ In The Rain”, ” Apocalypse Now”, “2001: A Space Odyssey”, “Taxi Driver”, “Raging Bull” and Goodfellas”, to name a few better than SPR who haven’t won BP. It’s not even the best Spielberg film no to win BP. Jaws and ET are better and even “Raiders of the last ark” and “The Colour Purple” and “Empire of the Sun” are arguably better.
Maybe not necessarily locks, but Tom McCarthy should get *a little* worried by now.
Out of the films on your list the ones I have seen “Shakespeare in Love” is my favourite. That was actually a good film, it’s just that it beat “SPR”.
Fine with Terms of Endearment and Shakespeare in Love only because they have women as central characters. I woulda voted for Saving Private Ryan, though.
Oh, I wished Avatar would have won Best Picture, but I think James Cameron should give a $89,000 tip to Kevin Costner.
Hated Best Picture winners I actually love…
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Artist
3. Driving Miss Daisy
4. American Beauty
Hated/Tepid Best Picture winners are not my favorites, but I’m fine with…
-Argo
-Birdman
-Ordinary People
-Out of Africa
-Shakespeare in Love
-Terms of Endearment
-Dances with Wolves
-Titanic
Not only one, but three Oscars. Even if I liked Birdman, Innaritu is no Malick, and he sure ain’t Speilberg.
Rylance has BAFTA in the bag, but he’ll struggle with the SAG and AMPAS crowd.
How is Rylance not a threat? He’s been a pervasive presence this season. He ought to be at least considered. But being in a Best Picture winner didn’t help any of Birdman’s stars last year, or two of 12 Years a Slave’s three nominees, or anyone from Argo, or all but one of The Artist’s cast, or The King’s Speech’s etc. I fail to recall the last time any actor received a significant boost simply from being in the likely Best Picture winner.
Not that I’m not considering Christian Bale. Unlike you, I believe it useful to keep all options open.
Pet, Star Wars et al. don’t need Oscars. Maybe just get over the fact that not every Best Picture winner cost more money to make than the entire health budgets of several countries combined.
Bridge of Spies beating Spotlight at WGA would be so wrong.
Now that Best Picture is a bit clearer in favor of The Big Short, I hope now for George Miller to prevail at DGA and finally the Oscar. McKay is cool and directing the Best Picture winner (no matter how good or bad) justifies a Best Director win most of the time, but he’ll win for Adapted Screenplay (with Charles Randolph). Abrahamson’s nomination is his reward. McCarthy is too low-key and unimpressive compared to the big efforts to win without consequence, and Iñárritu, despite his masterful effort, has his victory last year as a bit of a stumble. Miller, given his age and his directorial effort, should and ought to be given more support. Hopefully he gets it. 🙂
What hardcore film fans? What film community? You’re talking a load of shite here pet. I know about a dozen people I could personally call upon to defend The Hurt Locker with equal ease and insight. But rn you’re on a film community page, and, I guarantee you, you’ll find far more support for that film than you will Argo.
And your argument that public support validates Argo as a work of art over The Hurt Locker is laughable. After all, most people I meet on a daily basis know fuck all about the art of film. I wouldn’t ask for their opinion on film if I was paid to.
I’m not gonna pretend that I could find equal support for films I love, like Jupiter Ascending or Grace of Monaco, because I know that it simply doesn’t exist among ‘hardcore film fans’ to the same extent as support for either Argo or The Hurt Locker does. And I’m not gonna do that because I have the confidence in my own opinion not to let it inform my interpretation of facts. Your bias is showing, henny!
“The Hurt Locker in 2009, The King’s Speech in 2010, The Artist in 2011, Argo in 2012, Birdman in 2013”
And four of those 5 were the absolute dreck BP winners in Oscar history. Totally undeserving, and even more of a problem for the Academy than #OscarsSoWhite. They represent a complete capitulation to the Indie Spirits type of BP winner.
Nothing is locked. There is no such thing as a lock. Nothing ever gets disproved more than the notion of locks.
Not rly feeling the idea that Alicia Vikander is the most-loved actress in the UK rn. She’s certainly no more loved here than she is in the US.
Pretty sure Mark Rylance will win the BAFTA. I’d put him up as the favourite to win the SAG, but I’m not just as sold on that as I am on BAFTA. I’ll be v shocked if Rylance doesn’t take BAFTA.
‘Bale will win SAG, Bale will win BAFTA and Bale will win Oscar because he’s really good in the movie’
This alone makes your opinion on the issue fairly untrustworthy. Not that you think he’s rly gd, but that you think he’s gonna win because he’s rly gd, and even more so because you seem to think that he’s gonna win because you think he’s rly gd. Until anyone can actually prove me otherwise, Mark Rylance has a better shot at anything and everything than Christian Bale atm.
Sylvester Stallone has the edge over the lot for Oscar. Had he gone up against Christian Bale at the Globes, he still would have won, I think. And Bale wasn’t even up for Lead Actor at the Critics Choice.
I liked Selma quite a bit. But if we’re talking “best of 2014,” Force Majeure and Mr. Turner were my favorites.
I didn’t care for Selma except for its fiery passionate standout Song “Glory.” However, I LOVED Force Majeure, and it’s Oscar snub still somewhat irritates me, though not nearly as much as Gyllenhaal’s Nightcrawler snub that same year did.
You misspelled Selma. It’s “Force Majeure.” Just kidding, I liked Selma.
Very true. I don’t see Innaritu doing double time as his film is still divisive, no matter how artistic it may be and, besides, he won one already.
Oscar Best Movie = Crowd Pleaser in Sasha’s view. I suppose with this in mind we need to forget anything that’s very dark or unnerving ever winning Best Picture. So out the window with all the past winners that have, indeed, been dark and unnerving or anything this year that is dark and unnerving. I have a different view of the Best Picture in that I think it’s just a film that perhaps best reflects who we are and where we are willing to go at a particular moment in time. That may just be me, but looking over past winners, it seems that they are all over the place and perhaps it is just the collective mood of the Academy that settles on one particular film at a particular time. This year seems particularly unsettled because we have films exploring apocalyptic issues from the standpoint of the past and the future, films exploring some of the major issues/events of our current times, and films exploring a time in our history when emotions, needs, and desires were just beginning to find expression in a challenging post modern era. Then we have a film like The Martian that explores the what if? version of our world. What if we dared to unite? What if we dared to survive on the knowledge that is right in front of us and always has been? I think one reason why there has been so much division this awards season is that we can’t seem to settle on which narrative we really believe or want to believe best reflects us. The Big Short could win because we want to believe that we can win even when we aren’t.
I wish we knew the vote total for PGA. I suspect it was very close between “The Big Short” and “Spotlight.” I’m sticking with “Spotlight.” We’ll see who wins the DGA, I might change my mind.
Most people on a daily basis you meet every day. Even hardcore film fans are having a much harder time defending The Hurt Locker as an impressive work or art in any sense. It was boring, lacking in any kind of people you could invest in emotionally, and I heard it wasn’t even shot with a beginning to end storyline, that’s why it won the Oscar for Editing, ’cause Kathryn gave the guys the footage they’d shot, and told them to have at it.
I haven’t heard anyone complain about Argo’s historical inaccuracy in the past few years, there was the usual attempt to slander the Oscar contender for its “whitewashing”, just like how Selma got mud undeservedly thrown at it for making LBJ look reluctant to help out in the Civil Rights movement, which to be honest, he more than was at first.
Argo is now remembered by the general public and film community today as an extremely well-made, suspenseful movie with colorful characters and a great script. It will continue to entertain audiences and stand the time as a classic espionage thriller and Hollywood satire LONG after the majority of people have forgotten about The Hurt Locker, if they haven’t already! 😉
Ever since BAFTA moved up their ceremonies so that they would occur before the Oscars starting 2000, they haven’t really given out awards to nominees that weren’t also Oscar-nominated. Yes, there are some exceptions, including giving their David Lean Best Director award to Ben Affleck in 2013, but that was keeping in line with Argo’s Best Pic/Director sweep that year.
Please don’t say BAFTA might reward Innaritu. That would be terrible! They’ve snubbed MM: FR and Miller, and can only make their picks right by reward “Carol”.
I still have trouble anointing “The Big Short” as the crowning achievement of 2015, just as I strongly disagreed with anointing “Birdman” over “Boyhood.” TBS isn’t poorly made. It’s entertaining as hell, and it elicits strong emotions from viewers… but I found it good, not great or amazing. There were so many other movies this year that wowed me so much more. TBS just seems like the movie of the moment, not the movie that will endure.
At this point, I’d settle for this.
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
PLEASE JUST LET SPOTLIGHT WIN
Selma and Carol would’ve been fine choices.
Ok. The Hurt Locker is a modern classic and the greatest fiction film ever made about the Iraq War (there were a couple documentaries that were pretty spectacular as well). Now someone has talked about it. Avatar sucked, by the way.
They key words being…IN YOUR EYES. I think Crash was a great pick for best picture. Brokeback Mountain is so over rated.
What Sasha calls “Oscar movies” – which some ill-intended commenters might even call “Oscar bait” – are actually my favorite kind of movies, like they did in the good ol’ days, so I sure hope they keep them coming! Or else I might have to make them myself, oh wait, I’ll make them myself anyway! Hope springs eternal.
How encouraging. I was beginning to wonder if maybe I wasn’t. You’ve rly put me at ease.
“Maybe Selma and Carol seem more like Oscar movies to most people, but I’d sure as shit prefer to see them heralded as Best Picture of their respective years than Birdman.”
I disagree, but you’re entitled to your opinion. I think Snowpiercer was by far the best movie of 2014, and no one ever NOMINATED it. It would have been a worthy masterpiece to hold the title of “1st Science-Fiction Best Picture Oscar Winner EVER.”
IMO Selma was a badly shot misfire, David Oyelowo had no charisma as MLK. It also bothered me that they couldn’t use any of his real speeches, for me it diluted some of the impact. Also, the Blues music during the climax with the State Troopers? Where’s 12 Years A Slave’s Hans Zimmer when you need him!
I think people were afraid to tell Ava she didn’t make a very good movie for fear of being called “racist” and/or sexist, and thus convinced themselves it was some sort of masterpiece it clearly wasn’t. 🙁
In spite of our differing opinions regarding Selma, let’s both agree that Viola Davis got robbed of the Oscar for her layered and vulnerable work in The Help, and that Meryl Streep was completely undeserving for her Whitewashed Oscar bait vehicle The Iron Lady.
Argo wasn’t insulting to the Iranians themselves even! Do you know how often a movie like Argo is made where America is the HEROES, with no attention paid to cultural and global responsibility?! Hollywood still played a big part in rescuing those people, and it made for an interesting and truly UNIQUE story. There are liberties taken with every real-life story adapted for film, and Argo chose a mostly honest, darkly satirical route that recognizes how the USA wasn’t the completely innocent capitalist heroes we like to think we are! 😉
‘If we have two consecutive years with Birdman and The Big Short, it seems like this could be the beginning of another interesting run of films that don’t seem like “Oscar movies.”’
Well it certainly won’t bring back memories of the 2006-2009 run, nor the 1991-1993 run either, two periods wherein the Academy is often cited as having gotten it right (not quite imo, it just didn’t get it as wrong as usual). If they were gonna honour films that don’t seem like Oscar movies, they could’ve tried a lot harder, and done a lot better, finding an entirely different kind of such films. Maybe Selma and Carol seem more like Oscar movies to most people, but I’d sure as shit prefer to see them heralded as Best Picture of their respective years than Birdman.
Really? For me the Oscars have been on a winning streak of consistently GREAT Best Picture winners, from Argo, to 12YAS, to Birdman, to (hopefully!) The Big Short.
The Hurt Locker is easily the worst BP winner since Crash IMO. The Artist at least had cleverly original premise, a Silent movie about the decline and fall of the Silent era! I can’t stand No Country For Old Men, but Javier Bardem’s sociopath was memorable and genuinely interesting even, for parts of it anyway. :
I liked Spotlight the same as BoS probably. So the Coen Bros winning anything would please me. They’re my faves.
“you’ll never hear anybody complain about the historical inaccuracy or Argo”
Unless you read 1000 comments on AwardsDaily that year. And we were not the only ones raising 1000 eyebrows.
I’ve heard plenty of people complain about the historical inaccuracy in Argo. They were complaining about it three years ago.
And plz, ‘nobody’ talks about The Hurt Locker like it’s ‘even that good at all’? Who the fuck are you talking to? Cos it ain’t anybody around here, that’s for fucking sure.
On second thoughts, maybe don’t tell me who you’re talking to. I’d rather pretend I live in a world where these people don’t exist, at least for as long as I can.
Citizen Kane was completely predictable, you know he dies all alone, very rich and isolated. But does that make it less of a great film?
I get where you’re coming from on The Hurt Locker, but there’s a way that idea could have been executed with compelling characters and good dialogue. You know, like how Argo had both of those?!
Mark Boal should have stuck to his job as an Iraq War journalist. His win over Inglorious Basterds in particular stings. Even Goldderby Film Awards didn’t stoop so low as to give Hurt Locker SCREENPLAY. ;(
The DGA has never gone to the same director in back-to-back years in all of their 65+ year history. Ever. BAFTA is much more of a possibility for Iñárritu than DGA.
Argo and The Hurt Locker are equally mediocre in my eyes. Argo is the worst film to win Best Picture since Crash.
NOBODY talks about The Hurt Locker like its a modern classic or that it was even that good at all. The Bridge On The River Kwai had characters with layers and depth. Even at the Spirit Awards for 08′, Hurt Locker only received 2 nominations. It didn’t even deserve the BP win, let alone nomination, and I am proud to be in the majority on that one.
In spite of the Airport scene at the end being overhyped, Argo worked really well in terms of historical accuracy. Regardless of how much of a part the Canadians did or didn’t play, you’ll never hear anybody complain about the historical inaccuracy or Argo the same way people complain about A Beautiful Mind, American Sniper, or The Imitation Game. I even liked the former, and genuinely LOVE the 2 latter. I also acknowledge they fail as honest depictions of history, especially with the former 2. Clint Eastwood never even touched upon Chris Kyle’s anti-Muslim racism. Wait for the David Fincher remake to set things straight! 😉
erp. thanks, Aku Max.
I like the sound of this.
“..stranger-than-fiction story of how thanks to Hollywood, lives were actually saved during the Iran Hostage Crisis.
stranger-than-fact, actually. Canada saved the Iran hostages. Canada used a couple of washed-up nobodies from LA to pull off their plan. That’s not Hollywood. That’s Hollywood’s rejects. (which, again, is music to the ears of a thousand AMPAS members who feel forgotten. Because they are.)
I can tell that Sasha is VERY BULLISH on “The Big Short” and she might very well be right.
Sasha is betting on a sweep: “The Big Short” will take PGA/SAG/DGA – Game Over?!
I would be very curious if the following happens:
“Spotlight” squeezes by “The Big Short” and manages to steal the SAG.
Then, Inarritu goes and gets the DGA over Miller and McKay.
ACE will most likely be split between “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “The Big Short” with “The Revenant” a potential spoiler.
So we’ll have:
“The Big Short” – PGA, ACE
“Spotlight” – SAG
“The Revenant” – DGA
“Mad Max: Fury Road” – ACE
If, and it’s a BIG IF, all these pan out, we would be heading to the BAFTA, where only “The Big Short” and “The Revenant” would be coming in with both Best Picture and Best Director nominations.
Inarritu has the following: Oscar/BAFTA/GG Win/BFCA/DGA
McKay has the following: Oscar/BAFTA/DGA – but no GG and no BFCA
BAFTA will most likely want to reward Inarritu because he didn’t win last year for “Birdman”. But if there is this fragmentation in the guilds, “The Revenant” might also win Best Picture at the BAFTA.
So, in the end we might have the following:
“The Big Short” – PGA, ACE
“The Revenant” – DGA, GG, BAFTA
It would be a crazy and tight race if this pans out and I am not sure who might win – my head probably says “The Big Short” but you all know where my heart is at…
Again, all these theories could come crashing down as soon as this Saturday, when if “The Big Short” takes the SAG, it’s game, set and match…
:-)))
“it’s now considered one of the most embarrassing Oscar winners ever.”
this sentence is embarrassing… and not true.
There was nothing traditional about Argo winning BP, it was a cleverly written movie, with memorable and interesting characters you could care about, that told the declassified stranger-than-fiction story of how thanks to Hollywood, lives were actually saved during the Iran Hostage Crisis.
The Hurt Locker on the other hand, was as generic and bland as movies in general come, with not a character to give a shit in sight, let alone the fact it’s now considered one of the most embarrassing Oscar winners ever.
“One of the few.” Even though I disagree, I appreciate you recognizing your minority status. I honestly LIKED The Martian, but I’m skeptical as to whether or not it will hold up on television or throughout the years in general.
Keep an eye out for the Coen Bros. with the Bafta-overperforming Bridge of Spies to pull off an upset over Spotlight at WGA. I know that’s a possibility I am keeping in mind.
Mad Max: Fury road left me with more optimism and hope for humanity than The Martian did. I think The Martian is only a “great” film when you compare it to Ridley Scott’s recent disasters The Counselor, Exodus: Gods and Kings, Robin Hood, and even IMHO Prometheus, in spite of that Noomi Rapace-starred having excellent Production Design and Visual Effects.
The Martian by itself is just an okay film, that got really overhyped due to shock at how not-terrible it actually was, considering just how spectacularly Scott’s been failing the past decade.
It is not “England on the eve of World War I”
It’s World War II.