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The current Oscar race seems very much like two races in one. Usually, there are two films that dominate and go head-to-head. This year, it feels like there are two pairs of two: two tech-heavy epics with visionary directors attached and intense themes about humanity, versus two smaller character dramas by relatively unknown directors about journalists hunting down corruption in the Catholic Church or Wall Street traders uncovering fraud in the financial system on the eve of the banking collapse of 2008. These four films seem poised to dominate the race and only one of them can win.
The Epics
The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road lead the Oscar nominations tally. Both are about survival. The Revenant is about the survival of a compassionate white man who tried to live in harmony with the indigenous people of North America at a moment in time when their world was about to be destroyed, along with (eventually) the natural world. Mad Max: Fury Road is about that destroyed world and the small band of humans left battling for limited resources, water being at the top of that list. In a way both films are about these deeper themes, but they are also about their technical achievements and their visionary directors making films that are jaw-dropping in their scope and beauty. Neither was easy to make, neither was easy to sell: both have a B+ Cinemascore, for instance, which shows neither is a particularly easy sit with everyone in the audience. You can’t reach for great art, though, if you want to please the masses. Both Alejandro G. Iñárritu and George Miller have turned in exceptional cinematic works of art and the Academy has rewarded their films with multiple nominations in nearly every category.
They will fight it out for wins for production design, visual effects, costumes, the sound categories, even possibly editing. There will be a question of which visionary director will get the prize to go along with a whole slew of crafts Oscars. The Critics Choice last night said George Miller. The Golden Globes a week ago said Alejandro G. Iñárritu. You have to wonder heading into the Oscar race, though, whether they will cancel each other out and leave open a third possible choice for Best Director, and maybe one who is paired with Best Picture, or maybe not.
With both the last two Director/Picture splits, Ang Lee for Life of Pi and Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity, the Oscar was handed over to the director who pulled off the technical achievement of an effects-driven film, but the Academy felt no need to award the same film Best Picture. In Lee’s case, his Oscar would very likely have gone to Ben Affleck, who was not nominated. In Cuarón’s case, it would have gone to Steve McQueen. Cuarón was also the first since 1929 to win Best Director in a split year without his film having a corresponding screenplay nomination. A similar split this year would have to mean that Best Director would either go to Iñárritu or Miller. Since Iñárritu won last year this seems like an easy call.
The Character Dramas
On the flipside, you have Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, which won the Los Angeles Film Critics Award, the National Society of Film Critics, and last night, the Critics Choice Award. It has six Oscar nominations, but in the top categories only — and even missed out, inexplicably, on score. The understated, somber, but hard-hitting Spotlight is a movie nobody hates. Nobody. The worst they can say about it is that it’s too much like All the President’s Men.
Spotlight goes up against Adam McKay’s absurdist take on the Wall Street meltdown, The Big Short, which has five Oscar nominations. The Big Short has every nomination necessary to win Best Picture and is the only one in the Oscar race so far that can claim this distinction. But unlike Spotlight, there are some people who were confused by The Big Short and some who outright hated it. Some say you can’t win on a preferential ballot with any divisiveness at all, but that idea did not serve us well last year when the visionary but polarizing Birdman took down the “nobody hates it” Boyhood. It turned out that passion was needed to pull through the win with the bigger guilds.
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It’s a tough call between these four movies for best of the year. As we know, the Oscar decision for Best Picture is rarely for the best — it’s just the film most people can agree on as the best. To understand why a certain film won, you have to understand the narrative surrounding that win because otherwise it makes no sense when you look back.
If you take How Green Was My Valley’s Best Picture win out of context, you might wonder how could Citizen Kane, now regarded as the greatest film of all time, not have been named Best Picture of the year? Then you look at the narrative. Not just the movement to take down Citizen Kane for being a little too close to home for publishing titan (and Hollywood bully) William Randolph Hearst, but also John Ford’s own narrative: he had already won two Oscars for directing and had yet to collect a Best Picture win along with it. Ang Lee is now John Ford just before How Green was My Valley.
You also have to understand the Apollo 13 narrative around Ron Howard, which is why he won for A Beautiful Mind in 2001. A Beautiful Mind did not win because it was the best movie. Moulin Rouge and Fellowship of the Ring were both better films by a long way — but they, like this year, were two big tech movies facing down an emotional character drama. In the end, the character drama won out not because they liked the movie more (although that’s certainly possible), but because Ron Howard was the Hollywood son who had finally made good.
Last year, some thought Birdman was the best film. I was not one of those people. The narrative for Birdman that took hold was, as it turned out, bigger than Boyhood’s “It took 12 years to film this movie” narrative. The driving force for Birdman was much bigger because it became about taking on the plethora of superhero movies. It was actually going to beat Boyhood anyway because there was no way the studio-driven Academy was going to give their big win to a micro-budget IFC movie. Hell, not even the Spirit Awards gave their win to Boyhood. Seriously. They gave it to Birdman. No kidding. That’s how strong the Birdman narrative had become.
So herewith, my four narratives offered up for the four potential Best Picture contenders.
- The Revenant – History would be made if Alejandro G. Iñárritu becomes the first Mexican filmmaker to win back-to-back directing Oscars, and the first human being ever to win both Picture and Director in consecutive years, in 88 years of Oscar history. And he would do it without a screenplay nomination as well! Preservation of the environment is one of the most important issues we reckless Earthlings face, and Leonardo DiCaprio and Iñárritu have made an ode to that threatened environment worth our time and attention to preserve. The narrative: the environment, diversity.
- Mad Max: Fury Road – The passionate update to George Miller’s iconic first Mad Max has handed the reins to a woman. Yes, a woman. Consultant Eve Ensler ensured that Mad Max would be a feminist film as Charlize Theron steals the War Rig, rescues the female breeders, and launches a revolution to toss out an oppressive leader. The narrative: feminism, and a message so powerful that China wouldn’t even exhibit this movie. The second narrative: George Miller made an old-school effects movie using practical effects people and not computers. Preserving traditional jobs in Hollywood? That’s a pretty good narrative, just saying.
- Spotlight – It probably has Best Picture sewn up at this point, but it is missing — and has always been missing — a killer narrative. Just being a good movie that everyone likes isn’t usually enough. The narrative here could be that it’s a film to remind us what real journalism used to be like before the Internet and Fox ruined it. The narrative could also be: real actors speaking real lines with no need for visual effects or stylistic flourishes. It could also be about bringing down the Catholic Church for covering up decades of pervasive sex abuse — making it important to the many victims over the many generations, and everyone who cares about them. It’s also got a former actor as the director. Actors tend to like it when one of their own makes the big leap; thus, if more talk about that gets around more it could really work in Spotlight’s favor.
- The Big Short – This one has the best narrative of all because we’re in an election year. You don’t have to feel the Bern to know that the American people got screwed in 2008 when financial speculators bilked the economy, and the federal government refused to bring a single charge against the crooks on Wall Street after their fraudulent behavior led to the loss of $10 trillion in pensions, life savings, and property values — not to mention the way our government bailed out the thieving banks because they had become “too big to fail.” No film in the race right now is more important than The Big Short because no matter which candidate you plan to vote for, nobody but the Democrats are talking about regulation to prevent this from happening all over again — yes, even Hillary, whose financial reform plan has been praised by Elizabeth Warren. The Big Short brings with it a sense of urgency, but it also beautifully depicts the crazy fractured state we all find ourselves tangled in — focusing on hysteria, consumerism and Kim Kardashian instead of looking at what’s happening to our world and our government. “We live in an era of fraud in America,” Mark Baum says at the end of The Big Short. And indeed, we do. This narrative, though, is a tough one because many people refuse to even try to understand what The Big Short is about. They simply see it as “Wall Street bad,” and it can work on that level, too. But really look at it. It’s a story about people — a culture — that want something for nothing. Another interesting narrative it has is how a former comedy director has finally made a serious movie. Sometimes that counts.
It probably doesn’t matter all that much to talk about narratives now. We know the Producers Guild is coming this weekend and whatever they decide usually decides the race. Most of the PGA voters will have already probably decided what they think is the year’s best. The preferential ballot will reflect their number one pick, and ballots assigned to that powerful first-round stack. That’s the one they feel most strongly about. There’s a pretty good chance that their number one won’t be the winner, so their second choice could count as well. There’s a chance that their second choice won’t matter either and their third choice will be counted as their favorite film of the year.
Your job is to put it all together and try to remove your own heart from the process. Whatever you choose, it will have to be a film that ends up high on most ballots, at 1, 2 or 3. So write down a list and pick your top 3. Chances are, whatever you pick as 2 or 3 could be the Best Picture of the Year.
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Preferences will be important, will the Maxers vote Revenant and the Shorters vote Spotlight?
If it was about land appropriation and killing of Indigenous folks, it was realllllly subtle. It was fantastic that they had Indigenous actors in it (vs. something like Pan), but to me the story was driven by revenge, not crimes against the Indigenous or against nature.
So what if MAX wins PGA, Spotlight gets SAG (already locked) and Miller gets DGA?
MAX for BP? Hmm..
Maybe it’s just me but I find it hard to believe the Academy will give it BP. BD yes for sure but BP?
Gold Derby update:
Experts- best picture- Revenant 6, Spotlight 6, Big Short 2 (including our Sasha)
Editors- best picture- Revenant 5, Spotlight 2, Big Short 0
Is this really a three way race?
How can you tell anything from such a small sample of voters?
How do you assume if it’s not Spotlight, it’s the Revenant?
(Btw I hope you’re right but just don’t think you can be that sure)
Just attended another tired screening of Snoozelight. During the movie many voters grumbled behind me, with one executive from Disney being the most vocal: “God this is just so fucking boring!!” His comment was of course greeted by audible “Shhhhs!” from the elitists sitting up front.
After the lights came on there was strong applause, mainly because everybody was exhausted and grateful the chore was over. Hurried voters bolting for the door were stopped by two of my psychic friends who insisted they tell them what awards the movie was going to win.
“Let’s put it this way, I was rooting for the priests.” Said a very upset female producer.
“The only award this movie deserves is Best Cure for Insomnia.”
I think it’s safe to say Spotlight will be losing all of its awards, including best picture and director to The Revenant, and no I’m not biased.
I think it works against him for sure, especially for BD. Revenant for BP so different to Birdman and much more Oscar friendly has a chance
MR was plenty divisive at the time: its ott style, the directing, and the editing being the main love/hate issues. Plenty of voters saw it as more MTV than AMPAS. And there was definitely a “wait and see” attitude in the industry with LoR, which crystallised when the Two Towers came out, sure, but was there right from the very start because everyone knew so much about how it had been made and the release pattern for the following two years. To say they both had BP trouble because they were two big tech movies going up against a character drama isn’t entirely accurate.
Look, I’m a journalist, so I’m a big fan of ”Spotlight.” I know that world very well, so I’m all the more impressed. But if you read Cullen’s piece, I have the same question that he had: ”Why make a real person (Dunn) look bad with words he didn’t say, when you could just as easily assign those words to a fictitious person you put in the scene?” Cullen tried to get an answer from Tom McCarthy, but he wouldn’t reply. That’s B.S. And if you were Dunn, I bet you’d be ticked off about having your good character slandered and misrepresented, too. That’s about the last thing any good investigative reporter would ever do.
Yes, thank you. I corrected it one place I mentioned it, maybe not this forum, but didn’t catch it here. 🙂
Yah, definitely not black and white.
On one hand, some people say what they personally want to win from the nominees.
And then others try to say what should win and to me that’s a much messier topic and hard to stay objective with.
I have no qualms with admitting that the most likely winners are 1) Spotlight 2) Big Short 3) Mad Max 4) Revenant. But personally, I think Mad Max or Revenant would be more interesting, exciting choices from a generally predictable, traditional, old-fashioned Academy. Even Brooklyn, Room or Martian would be interesting.
Are we ranking what we THINK will win? If so:
1) Spotlight (Academy friendly, significant, safe)
2) The Revenant (tough, brilliantly filmed, just enough theme?)
3) The Big Short (dynamic, relevant, but less safe)
4) MM:FR (Academy friendly for many awards BUT pic)
I take personal offense to that suggestion
you’re right it doesn’t mean anything profound
They voted departed, silence of the lambs, no country, godfathers etc etc for BP. AMPAS can do violent
Not that this means anything profound but a woman friend of mine just saw The Revenant and found herself looking away from the screen for parts of the film. I do wonder if some of the Academy viewers may have the same reaction.
If every scene in Spotlight were a simulation of the truth it would have been a deadly bore. As it stands what Spotlight does capture well is the process of investigative reporting. I was surprised it could make it so engrossing.
It’s conceivable that Mad Max could win the BAFTA for the Best Picture but lose the Oscar. I won’t be surprised if Spotlight wins Best Screenplay at BAFTA. They award The Station Agent a while ago which was kind of a surprise win.
I would like Ruffalo to win. If Stallone wasn’t in that category I do think he would win. I think a lot of actors and other people like him. He comes off as a humble guy who cares a lot about social causes.
I think Innaritu’s 3 wins last year work against him. Or maybe the Academy majority just loves him.
Just like Mad Max or The Revenant winning without a Screenplay nomination. Every year exists in its own scenario. What happened in the past is there for comparison purposes only
You guys gave me a happy jolt for a sec as Room is my favorite film of the bunch. Sadly, I don’t see it happening.
Agreed. Mad max is too out there. Revenant is a safer big epic choice. I still see this as a 2-way not 4-way race.
Sasha can you see Spotlight winning more than 2 Oscars? I understand its narrative, I like the film, and it would be a worthy winner. But the only other place I can see it winning is original screenplay. Maaaaybe McCarthy pulls off an upset for director, but I dont see it. The Revenant allows them to vote for epic filmmaking. Adult filmmaking. Its a stark alternative for people who say “Spotlight? Really? this?” without veering too “genre” (aka Mad Max).
I keep thinking that this is a possibility. Has anyone thought about the possibility of Mark Ruffalo upsetting Stallone? I didn’t think so.
I think that The Revenant can still win best pic if either MM:FR or The Big Short win editing, since they are both edited is such flashy yet effective ways. If Spotlight wins editing, then it takes best pic.
It’s not so black and white either. My ranking of the four would go like this:
1) Mad Max
2) The Big Short
3) Spotlight
4) The Revenant
A Beautiful Mind was the worst of the five.
You don’t watch many movies do you?
MM is likely to win Editing but no picture.
I can’t still see clearly the narrative about the environment either tb. To me it was more about land appropriation from and killing of native indigenous. I guess in the end that translates into resources exploitation and depletion too. I’m up all for TR (or MM)!
Sasha: Moulin Rouge was a better film – by a long way – than A Beautiful Mind? I know that ABM is anathema to many people on this site. But remember, MR was an extremely divisive film at the time. There was no way that mess was going to win best pic. As for The Fellowship of the Ring, it would have its day as part of the series.
For some reason I’m hoping against the Revenant. I thought Leo did an amazing job and want to see him win. But the movie just wasn’t my favourite. The narrative about saving the environment they’re now trying to pedal really has nothing to do with the movie itself. That was about the excruciating triumph of the white dude. That said, most of the white dudes I know have LOVED that movie, and that’s what the Academy represents, it seems. I’m cheering for Spotlight, but I really liked Big Short and Mad Max. #anythingbutrevenant
What film we root for or think will win BP may come down to personal biases. Sasha, per usual, did an elegant job describing the two camps in this year’s oscar race: visual films by visionary directors and powerful, well-written character dramas. If you tend to prefer one type of film over the other, chances are you’re probably rooting for a film from that camp. Most of us cinephiles probably revere films from both categories – I know I do.
I suppose my rationale for supporting Revenant and Mad Max this year is because I consider visual films that work this well to be rarer than powerful character dramas that also work well. I feel like every year we get to see incredible character pieces, bio-pics, etc. but visual spectacles that are equally meaningful like Revenant and Max Max are incredibly rare.
I’m not surprised about “The Artist” getting a screenplay nomination. A lot of people seem to forget that there’s more to a good script than dialogue. Screenwriting (and I speak from experience) is less writing and more storytelling, and “The Artist” told a story many in Hollywood could relate with.
With “Mad Max,” I was surprised it didn’t get a screenplay nod considering how highly regarded the storytelling was received, by critics and audiences alike. Sure, making up the sequences as they went along doesn’t help, but Mike Leigh’s gotten five screenwriting nominations for basically doing the same thing.
Whatever the case, the stats are there, but they’re only good for the previous 87 years. I’m hoping this year becomes an exception reference for future Oscar seasons (whether for “The Revenant” or “Mad Max,” I cool either way).
Thanks! I’ll keep posting, of course. 🙂 Just within this set of rules…
I don’t know, maybe SPR set the bar too high with the first 45 minutes, but the rest of the movie has always fallen kind of flat with me. I’d have MUCH rather given Best Picture to The Thin Red Line or The Truman Show, the real masterpieces of that year in my opinion.
If Editing doesn’t go to Mad Max, it’s a fucking disgrace.
If Mad Max can’t win Editing, it’s not going to win anything else
I don’t think editing will go to spotlight even if it wins BP – it didnt get an ACE nom and doesn’t have any flashy editing.
I think it’s Mad Max or The Big Short but in the case of REVENANT and MAX, both films don’t need that win so much since they’ll win easily other categories.
My own prediction is for Spotlight and it will be the first picture to take Best Picture with only one other award – Screenplay in over 60 years. Mad Max and The Revenant are going to pile on the awards in the technicals.
What else it is gonna win ??
You need support one way or another, otherwise you CANNOT win !!
Original Screenplay + Editing + Best Picture (a la Argo !!!)
Spotlight and The Big Short don’t really need it, especially Spotlight. I can see a lot of people voting for Mad Max’s editing without voting for it as Best Picture. On the other hand, I can see a lot of Spotlight and Big Short voters voting for Mad Max’s editing. Best Director is the same thing
Well, I think you’ve the right to enjoy yourself with posting your quality comments on this site. Any of your likes or even dislikes are very often debatable. That said, from my part of view, I’ve always taken your answers very seriously and I’m looking forward reading your statements carefully again and again for the future. Cheers, Claudiu ….:))
Nothing would thrill me more
The awards to watch on Oscar night are Editing, Screenplay and Director. Mad Max, Spotlight, Big Short and The Revenant are all in it
Editing:
If Big Short or Spotlight wins, it’s all over, the winner here gets Best Picture
If Revenant wins, Mad Max is out, if Mad Max wins, Revenant is out. Either way, Big Short and Spotlight still in.
Screenplay
If Big Short and Spotlight win, all four are still in contention. If either loses, it’s out
Director
If McKay or McCarthy win, their picture takes Best Picture.
If Gonzales Innaritu wins, Mad Max is out, if Miller wins, all four are still in contention
Maybe this year we’ll have some honest-to-God suspense right up to the envelope opening
I’ll say it again – Shakespeare in Love deserves to win Best Picture any year, every year
Shakespeare in Love deserves to win Best Picture any year, every year
I actually can’t choose at this point which movie I want to win, either picture or director. Both my mind and my heart are split between Spotlight, Mad Max, and Revenant. What extraordinary movies. I would be so happy for any of them to win – I don’t remember the last time I was equally rooting for three different movies, let alone the three frontrunners … heck, even the two frontrunners. Still have to get on watching Big Short, though.
And, of course, because of the many other things The Revenant has going against it – the back-to-back stats, the divisiveness, the lowest Metacritic rating…
Without both – none, indeed, since all of the winners since Driving Miss Daisy, and before the BFCA first had five nominees in this category, have had at least the GG nomination. Good point! Same goes for Spotlight’s combo, though that one is probably more worrying because of the big guild snub, just like Sasha said.
So, yeah, I agree that every film is vulnerable and the PGA is very hard to predict. I still think because The Revenant’s snubs are even greater in number, coming from more groups and for more different aspects (screenplay, ensemble and film – like from AFI), that it shows a lot more weakness (because it’s, therefore, harder for enough of them to be considered anomalies), and, for that reason, that it won’t win the PGA award and, especially, Best Picture at the Oscars. But it’s not guaranteed, I agree.
Lorenzo’s Oil is so underrated.
I think it’s a fantastic movie but not better than Saving Private Ryan, The Truman Show or The Thing Red Line.
The last two times my number 1 has won: NCFOM and LOTR:ROTK. But I was also thrilled for The Departed and 12 Years a Slave to win, so no harm done those years.
It’s a good movie. But better than SPR? No way.
Excuse me but I always complain that it’s predictable and it’s become predictable again. It’s not exciting. I love the Oscar race. But the Oscars not so much anymore.
George Miller has proven that his reach exceeds any of the other nominees. From Babe and Happy Feet to Lorenzo’s Oil and his segment in the Twilight Zone movie to his signature Max Max franchise, I can’t think of any other director who, in his relatively short filmography, has been able to display savagery one minute and such sweetness in the next, all with effortless expertise. Any other choice for Best Director this year would be wrong and I hope the voters realize this is an easy choice.
The trick will be seeing if BP follows suit. I agree it appears that the race is between The Big Short, Spotlight, The Revenant and Mad Max. Spotlight and The Big Short will go the way of most “important” films – from All the President’s Men to Zero Dark Thirty – the acknowledgement by way of the nomination will have to do.
Oscar likes “big” over “small” and also wants its BP selection to represent them; since it’s easier for the voters to relate to the “man vs the elements” struggle in The Revenant over the frantic and bizarre characters in Mad Max, they’ll likely go with the former for BP.
The Revenant for picture.
Mad Max for director
Impossible
My biggest fear is Room taking BP. Impossible? I hope so but watch out. They fell in the emotive trap that movie is.
You got me there.
Do you think Best Actor is ”all locked up” for Cranston? A few weeks ago, you ranted about DiCaprio only doing ”stunt work” in ”The Revenant.” You predicted that Cranston would beat DiCaprio at SAG.
rn, there’s nothing to suggest that, if this is a split year, Best Director is going to go to anyone but George Miller, and very little to suggest that Best Picture is going to go to any film but Spotlight, maybe The Big Short. The Revenant’s only big wins are at the Golden Globes, where it won both. If a narrative needs time to build, The Revenant’s going to have to assume frontrunner status in both categories, imo, if it wants to hold such a solidified frontrunner status as Spotlight is currently enjoying.
Funny that, following year after year of trying so desperately to be more relevant to the Oscar race, BAFTA may end up being the least relevant. If Spotlight and George Miller continue to take the big awards, the Oscars could end up going to a film without a BAFTA Best Director nomination, and another without either Best Film or Director nominations.
Slight correction: The Revenant leads the nomination tally, with 12. Fury Road doesnt lead, it’s second on 10. And yes, it does matter.
Happy with that but I really want Revenant to take picture
I was writing on an iPad, I didn’t want to edit it D:
Just to play devil’s advocate, the winner of the PGA isn’t always the Oscar-winning Best Picture.
* 2001: PGA winner – ”Moulin Rouge!”; Oscar winner – ”A Beautiful Mind”
* 2004: PGA winner – ”The Aviator”; Oscar winner – ”Million Dollar Baby”
* 2005: PGA winner – ”Brokeback Mountain”; Oscar winner – ”Crash”
* 2006: PGA winner – ”Little Miss Sunshine”; Oscar winner – ”The Departed”
Maybe I’m one of the few who really love Shakespeare In Love.
Actually, the last Best Picture winner to wind up with just 2 Oscars was ”The Greatest Show on Earth” (1952). The other Oscar was for Motion Picture Story.
It occurs to me that the existence of MM:FR and TR may actually benefit them both. I think Sasha has come up with the overall narrative of the Oscar race this year: The epics vs the studio/character dramas and I can see a general view of the epics being grand artistic achievements for which AMPAS may split their love and reward one with BP and the other BD. Well, I may have just convinced myself haha but that would be great choices for me.
Have to add the Kings speech
My #1 has almost never won. silence of the lambs & American beauty are the only ones that come to mind. Last year it was Birdman, this year it is the Revenant. It’s great to have favourites in the hunt for a change!
The good thing is that any of the 4 are solid choices far better than other winners such as A Beautiful Mind, Shakespeare in Love, The Artist, Driving Miss Daisy, I could go on…
1. Last year, my #1 and #2 both won – IDA and BIRDMAN. Can’t happen this year, but if MUSTANG upsets SON OF SAUL (still very good) and SPOTLIGHT wins, it will be close.
2. There is a pretty big gap between my Top 3 and my Bottom 2. So, if any of #’s 4-6 win that would be the equivalent of my Fourth Choice winning again (most likely FURY ROAD of that trio). BIG SHORT at #8 would be an anomaly.
Thank you
🙂 You must have hated the years before the expansion…
My no.1 has won the last two years, and it could be three in a row, if Spotlight wins this year. Makes me feel like a big fat conformist, but I can’t not root for it, regardless. (I’ve been rooting for it since even before I saw it, because I knew reading about it that I was going to love it – this movie was tailor made for me!…)
My bottom two (which are quite a bit higher on your list) are definitely not winning, so I’m safe there.
Most years, my number one doesn’t win. In fact, in a weird anomaly, it seems like my 4th favorite wins even going back to the era with 5 nominees.
Who’s been complaining? Jerks
Wow, you have more at stake than me this year… Your no.8 could beat your no.1 AND no.2…
Only the people who didn’t realize (or couldn’t accept) that there were other, more important stats working for Birdman which took precedence.
[I’m not detailing, so this qualifies. Also, this is just my opinion, so it’s not condescending.]
I agree. Hence the decision and the apology.
I absolutely love the score as well…
Stats are good. It’s the patronising and condescending way you present them that’s the issue
If they do, Sasha might go nuts and start predicting The Martian for BP again… 🙂
I was thinking that too… but no SAG nomination is a very bad sign, no?
It’s been vulnerable for months… but it’s still here!
But, not Best Picture – like GRAVITY.
My rankings….
1. Mad Max
(small gap)
2. The Martian
3. Spotlight
(small gap)
4. The Big Short
(small gap)
5. The Revenant
6. Room
7. Brooklyn
(huge gap)
8. Bridge Of Spies
Maybe some of those older Catholic Academy members knew a bad priest or two and thus would be more inclined to vote for Spotlight
She’s come to no such realization…
I think Leo’s Oscar will be the ‘consolation prize’ as Revenant isn’t winning Best Picture
If Mad Max gets director and a bunch of techs/craft awards it will be like Gravity – both are Warner…. somewhat like Inception, also Warner.
Never underestimate Warner.
Currently:
1. Spotlight
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Brooklyn
4. The Martian
5. The Big Short
6. The Revenant
7. Room
8. Bridge of Spies
(No movie gets more than an 8 from me this year. Which doesn’t mean it’s not a good year – that’s just how I rate stuff. I have only three 10’s all-time, very few 9.5’s, and so on…)
Spotlight – hard 8
MMFR – hard 8
The Big Short – soft 7.5 (pending rewatch)
The Revenant – hard 7 (pending rewatch, very likely to go up)
All good, but only the first two would be worthy winners for me (though I could live with the other two as well…)
If you do, I will comply! I like them too, obviously. 🙂 But I’m trying to do what’s best for everybody…
I like your stat rants! I’ll ask for them if needed 🙂
Ride Along 2 is #1 at the BO.
Liked first one hour up till the sex talk and then it got real boring real fast.
Can’t DGA go for the ”Argo” route and award Scott for Best Director? (That’s how Affleck won DGA.)
“It probably doesn’t matter all that much to talk about narratives now. We know the Producers Guild is coming this weekend and whatever they decide usually decides the race.”
Precisely… There are pros and cons for every one of the four (though, for some, more than others), and even the stats don’t paint a conclusive picture yet. I guess they never really do, before the big guilds have all spoken. We need the PGA to finally tell us where this race is truly headed – or, perhaps, make it even less clear… I, for one, am refraining from making an “official” prediction for the PGA this year. You all know what I and Sasha believe the stats say is most likely at this point (The Big Short), and, if anybody feels it’s absolutely necessary for me to have made a PGA prediction this year, they can refer to that. It is also my entry for the contest above, but that’s almost exclusively for insurance reasons, and it doesn’t reflect any amount of confidence on my part, or lack thereof, in that outcome. I am, really, abstaining, like I said, because I still don’t buy that scenario enough to feel comfortable with it being my actual prediction. It wouldn’t matter what I predict now, anyway – it only matters what I’m going to be predicting on February 28th, before the Oscar ceremony. (At least in my opinion.) As for my current BP prediction for the Oscars, you all know what it is, and I’d rather not make it official, because it’s merely a temporary one that can change almost 100%, depending on the PGA result. Hint: it’s not The Big Short.
Now, onto some slightly off-topic stuff: It had become clear for a while, and it was also pointed out to me again recently, that my too frequent stats rants (big and small) were genuinely bugging quite a few people who strongly disagree with my views on the matter. Also, of course, I was probably too aggressive towards people in said rants – I tend to do that. Usually, not unprovoked, but it seems I’ve been doing a poorer job of that this Oscar season, and I’ve not been able to help myself too many times. I have things that bug me too… In any case, I do apologize for that!
Anyway, since I have no desire whatsoever to ruin people’s enjoyment of the awards season, or to be the diva of this board (which I’m sure many will find rather hard to believe), this is the decision I have reached, in the end, after some consideration: I will keep mentioning stats, in detail, ONLY in my general comments to the Awards Daily articles – one per article, at most, usually -, or if somebody asks me to do so in reply to one of my posts (or asks a stats question that I feel I can answer), but never in reply to anybody else’s comments to said articles. I WILL, probably, keep saying stuff like ‘the stats say otherwise’ or ‘that is highly unlikely, given the stats’, or whatever, but I will no longer ever elaborate (again, outside of my non-reply comments) and I will even refuse to do so, if asked, citing this decision as the reason for it. I also have no intention of manipulating the rules I am setting within this comment. As for my non-stat related comments… I see no particular reason (yet) to take any decisions with regard to those.
I think this is a fair and equitable decision that I hope helps everybody (who pays any attention at all to what I have to say about stats) enjoy this race a bit more from now on!
For the record, ”Spotlight’s” screenplay (by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy) bent the truth for drama, too. Jack Dunn, a spokesman for Boston College, is depicted in the movie as being callous to the plight of the abuse victims and that he tried to make the story go away. After seeing the movie, Dunn says he threw up. In real life, Dunn did just the opposite in dealing with the abuse: He ”proposed to the board that we create a hotline so alums can call in and report anything they know; hire an independent child advocate to review each case; report any criminality to the police; and provide counseling and compensation for the victims.”
Also, from the same story: ”Dunn isn’t the only real person portrayed in the film who has a beef with Tom McCarthy. Steve Kurkjian, a legendary Globe reporter, is portrayed as a curmudgeon who was dismissive of the importance of the story. That couldn’t be further from the truth, and Kurkjian did some of the most important reporting as part of the team that won the 2003 Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for exposing the coverup.”
The source? ”When the truth ends up on an editing room floor” by Kevin Cullen (Nov. 22, 2015) … in the Boston Globe. Cullen says Kurkjian ”is owed an apology. So is Dunn.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/11/21/when-truth-ends-editing-room-floor/a80DjFtwNj5CQfu6WuFBLL/story.html
Anyway this is a very good year. Almost all the nominees are great films. I will be happy if any of the nominees wins but Room which is overrated and should not have been nominated for picture and director and I think also Brie Larson is way overrated.
My personal vote would rank the best picture nominees as follows:
1. Brooklyn
I cannot decide which of the following I would put at number two, ONE of them will win the Oscar!
2. Mad Max Fury Road
2. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
Then:
3. The Big Short
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
Out of the race, with shame:
Room
There is a theme throughout the film and it is also on the poster – so it might have something to do with it:
“Blood Lost – Life Found”
There is something there but I haven’t gotten it yet.
the exact same thing the ending of Birdman meant: nothing
his films are so fucking starved of feeling.
Never again, eh? How many of the accused priests are still working (albeit in other locations), having never done any kind of restitution? I’m not saying every accused priest is guilty, but I question how many formally faced charges.
“Birdman” missing an editing was not so surprise since they made a big deal that it was a one take. I can understand and give it a pass too if TR was a silent film or like Wall-e. Even “The Artist” was nominated for screenplay, so I don’t think there’s any excuse for TR missing screenplay. “Mad Max Fury Road” faces the same problem, but it was without a definite script and they made it up as they went along while filming.
If these stats do mean something, then The Revenant, Room and MMFR are out of the race..
Love this.
But only 1-50 for Carol??? 🙂
And, the non-nomination of Ridley Scott likely helps Miller’s case as he won’t have to split the “Career-Achievment” vote.
Or Badlands!!!!!! Not that it ever had a chance at an Oscar.
I think this is really a two way race between Spotlight and The Revenant, in the sense that, while The Big Short and MMFR rank 3/4, Spotlight and The Revenant are far enough ahead that only they are real contenders to actually win. I have NO basis for this view!!! but it is just based on awards won, and buzz, and type of film. As between Spotlight and The Rev, I’ve no idea at all.
And I think Miller will get BD for his individual achievement in MMFR, but also for his career — the Academy will like that it ticks both boxes.
Ruffalo is a hot sleeper pick
Where did I gripe about its authenticity? And where did I say anything about The Revenant and the authenticity of Hugh Glass’s story? Relax.
Grendam said they didn’t add tension with dramatic events that didn’t happen, and I was just pointing out that that’s simply not true. Both the filmmakers and Mike Rezendes himself acknowledged that that scene was added for dramatic effect. That’s all I was referring to.
I think Spotlight is a great film that authentically portrayed the story of the spotlight team at the Boston Globe. Is that better for you?
cf. my last reply to you
Dammit. Will do my homework next time. Fair play
Important stats, to be sure, but how many people were still hanging on to the “Birdman doesn’t have an Editing nomination” wagon before (and even after) it won SAG, DGA, and PGA?
Stats mean something until they don’t. This might be a “they don’t” year — especially if either Mad Max or The Revenant wins Best Picture.
I’m referring more to the fact we didn’t have Catholic Illuminati-type agents stalking the reporters or shooting up their homes — or some Argo-like drama of the Iranians trying to stop the plane from taking off. You know, Hollywood stuff.
That’s it? That’s your big gripe about its authenticity? That pales in comparison to the extreme changes made to Hugh Glass’ life in order to give The Revenant actual meaning.
I related to it more than I liked it. Hopefully that makes sense.
Hal Jordan’s got issues, Gus, let it slide.
Yeah, it’s 2016, and Donald Trump is still the GOP front runner…
As Sasha writes, “Spotlight – It probably has Best Picture sewn up at this point…”
The only thing can stop it is if it fails to take the PGA and SAG ensemble. The DGA doesn’t matter as much this year as it really does appear to be a ‘Split’ year with SPOTLIGHT winning Best Picture and either Inarritu or Miller taking Best Director.
My rankings of the nominees only (Personal preference, not prediction order):
1. SPOTLIGHT
2. REVENANT
3. BRIDGE OF SPIES
4. ROOM
5. BROOKLYN
6 MAD MAX FURY ROAD
7. MARTIAN
8 BIG SHORT
CAROL would have been #3 had it been nominated.
Except they did add some Hollywood to it by ratcheting up the tension with a dramatic event that didn’t happen. Ruffalo’s big scene (one of the most emotional scenes in the movie) is fabricated.
Agreed-it’s Spotlight or Revenant in picture, Inarritu, Miller, or McCarthy in director. The only reason I say McCarthy is I don’t think that there’s been a movie that has gotten picture and just one other win since the 1930s. It needs screenplay, picture, and one other thing.. and I don’t think it’s going to be editing, Ruffalo, or McAdams.
2 stats, which I believe are correct and that seem vital for BP are: I/ no BP winner since 1989 has won without a PGA nomination. 2/ in the last 50 years, only 1 BP winner has had no Oscar nomination for script. Start there probably.
Almost half the people complain when it’s a predictable season, almost half complain when it’s wide open. And some of us just like the Oscars.
The adage I’ve heard — I’m paraphrasing and will have to see if there’s a source for it — is, “Roles get Oscar nominations; what an actor does with the role wins.”
I agree. I love that score so much. Howard Shore was on point. Spotlight is probably easier to like because it’s about people who actually manage to get something done. The characters we are supposed to like in TBS get rich off of the scandal they’ve discovered. Only Carell manages to feel bad about taking advantage of the situation, and that’s probably why his character comes off as the best-liked in the film. It’s a fun economics lesson. I think Spotlight trumps it in terms of importance. The issue at the heart of Spotlight will also be incredibly less divisive.
One of the aspects of the film I appreciate most is that it’s restrained, and they didn’t feel the need to go all “Hollywood” and ratchet up the tension with dramatic events that didn’t happen. There is a lot of respect for the actual people and their jobs as depicted in the film.
Sir Ridley, though, wasn’t a producer for and didn’t win an Oscar for “Gladiator.”
Good one. 🙂 You don’t know how I’ve had to stifle myself during the POC discussions since maybe/maybe not partial Native American Johnny Depp wasn’t nominated. *bites harder on tongue*
I would also like to thank the Academy for not giving Best Picture, for the 4th time in 5 years, to a film about an over-the-hill white guy in showbiz who saves himself and the world (well, his world) by “putting on a big show” in Act III. Just sayin’, Artist Argo and Birdman were enough
Went for a second viewing of Spotlight. The score snub is indeed inexplicable….. but. The audience chatter during and after the film was shock at what was going on and how big it was/is. The strength of the film is its credibility. The narrative is “It’s true, it happened. Spotlight is true. Never again!” An unusually credible film.
With all due respect to the excellent The Big Short, it does not have the same clarity. I agree with it, but it does have the feel of opinion.
Both deal with true stories. Zero Dark 30 started out with the claim to be the truth and was left open to criticism from reporters with much more credibility than Mark Baol. Selma was similarly criticized in the Washington Post The Big Short has been criticized for its analysis (not by me, Politico). Spotlight has taken on the mantle of truth and nobody has attacked them on the facts. Very important facts.
My point is greatness is often misunderstood for pretentiousness by resistant minds. It’s not the intent of the artist to be pretentious, it’s the way (s)he’s perceived.
No he’s saying “can I get my Oscar now please?”
He has that honor already for Gladiator. Which is kind of a coincidence for me, because when I read your posts, the voice I hear in my head is Liz Taylor at the Golden Globes saying “Gladiator”
Ha ha!
Also, I wrote this 3 months ago http://maptothefuture.com/columbus-day-indigenous-peoples-day-and-iron-eyes-ironies-cody/
So you’ve given up on The Martian? I thought you were one of its biggest boosters for months.
lol…. This would probably be deemed super racist and politically incorrect now.
THAT is crazy talk. Brie Larson’s tireless campaigning has done everything else for that film, but now you’re asking her to pull some Serena Williams-Grand Slam-style shit
That’s why I LOVE Heaven’s Gate. No matter it was a failure.
The definition of pretentious is the opposite making of great art: “attempting to impress by affecting greater importance or merit than is actually possessed.”
What you mean is being controversial, original, intellectual, philosophical… these are all great things great art should aspire to be by their maker. Great art can also be overrated and overinterpretated. That is also okay.
But knowingly trying to make a Socrates out of a Constable Dogberry is straight up fraud.
Many voters I’ve spoken to have said they’re voting for The Martian. When I asked why they all said they feel bad for Ridley Scott not getting nominated for Best Director. So they’re going to go the Argo route and give him a producing honor.
I think this is wonderful. Plus many voters also said they always wanted to go to Mars and by watching the movie they felt they were already there.
I thought it was going to just be the link. Anyway, crying Indian guy is what it meant.
I agree with everything you said, but still not sure why he looked at the camera. Are we God, judging him? Not that I have to understand everything about a movie, but I wish I understood that
All true but I think he means why in the end Leo looks right in the camera. First he stares at the vision of her wife going away, then it seems he turns his eyes on us, the audience. The meaning is questionable but I liked the moment.
five day party!
Aye. I was rooting for Mara or Leigh until I saw Danish Girl last night. Now I think Vikander will probably win. If I may quote the dear departed Alan Rickman, “actors don’t win Oscars, roles win Oscars.” The role is in the Oscar wheelhouse, and she delivers. Also, I expect her to win every single Best Supporting Actress award from those groups that are *really* giving it for 2 or 3 movies of the year, and that will give her the halo of “winner,” and Bob’s your uncle.
It’s not.
Harmless products of polite minds? I’m not sure what you’re getting at. If severely risking the health of cast and crew and spending untold millions on vanity project is the mark of achievement, isn’t that what Michael Cimino tried to do with Heaven’s Gate?
Well I’m still in shock Carol didn’t get nominated for Best Picture, such a beautiful film, I honestly don’t understand how it didn’t get in, they could’ve had a 9th nominee
I am not so sure, actually. It’s a summation of what he went through. He is the revenant. He came back from the dead to exact revenge for the death of his son. He realizes that the act of revenge by itself is empty.. I don’t know.. He succumbs to the power of nature.. Something like that.. Not sure entirely.
It’s a fun four-way race now. Sadly, this current state of the race will only last for five more days, and then it’s all she wrote.
That IS exciting, unlikely hood. Because the way it looks now, Best Actor, Actress and Supp. Actor are all locked up. Only race that is as wide open as BP is Best Supporting Actress.
What did the last shot of the Revenant mean?
Great films, great works of art must be pretentious, must irritate people. They set the bar, they try to do something never done in unexpected and unattempted ways. What you seem to like is just harmless products of polite minds.
Beyond all these guesstimates, I’m just happy we’ve got a genuine four-film BP race. Come on, that’s exciting no matter how it finishes.
Because they are great collaborators. He’s not stupid.
That’s Margaret Sixel. (Also edited ”Happy Feet” and ”Babe” … and is married to Miller.)
I really want to appreciate The Revenant (I’ve watched probably over three hours of Inarittu and co. Q&As/press — and read countless interviews in the last week or so alone), but everything just keeps reinforcing the movie to be empty and self-indulgent. When people talk about the immersion/experience of it, it affects me completely differently with the long takes with snow, blood, and water muddying the lens, not to mention, the breathy fogging effects and the extended lens flares. Natural light and the other technical skill on display simply don’t do it for me. Those closeups he’s fond of have also made me feel strangely claustrophobic if anything, and I hate the effect of distorted faces of the actors with the whip pans/angles. I really just feel like I’m watching some experimental, art project of a director that acknowledges (at least some) movies don’t need plot. I’m not even going to talk about the plot here.
It probably took me three viewings to get a good grasp of MM:FR, but the more I read about and researched the movie, the more I enjoyed it. Every viewing also made it feel richer. But for me, The Revenant is a dreadful slog, and while pretty and technical at parts, I just can’t help but think about watching stuff like Planet Earth or Wild Russia — minus the pretentiousness.
It was okay but I really can’t remember that much about it to be honest. Nothing that really sticks to my ribs as it were. Seemed more like a stunt to me, following the same actors over a period of time, etc. Birdman was clearly the work of an artist/artists, though, whatever else you might think about it. Brilliant set pieces, acting, and ideas. I watched it several times and discovered something new each time. Forget pretentious, that’s the sign of a really great film to me. It continually piqued my curiosity.
Not necessarily.
Not too sure if one is better than the other. They are both achievements that seem somewhat equal to me and I’ve seen both of them more than once.
I must say that you guys must be doing a really good job. This is the site with most participation/comments by far and with more regular readers.
So, congratulations! Although I do know always agree with Sasha’s reasoning for her predictions or her passion for some movies – cough cough Martian 🙂 I think she is doing a great job speaking out some truths out there in the industry and initiating very interesting discussions and keeping people’s high engagement with the site.
Remember AMPAS voters don’t follow any rules: they vote for who they like best.
My impression is they hate being told what they can and cannot do.
Spotlight seems vulnerable at this point.
james whatney,
Now I have to go back and look at all your recent comments to see how many other times you’ve been abusive to other readers.
Next step is up to you: Stop it, or else get banned.
You can decide how this goes. I hope you choose wisely.
Distinction is not between epics and character dramas but between cinematic experiences and message movies. Revenant and Mad Max have “deeper themes”, if you wanna find them, but that’s not the point while watching them. You enjoy the ride. Spotlight and Big Short instead sell a story, you have to be interested in it. If you are not, those movies are not worth the price. So if you talk about pure cinema, pure cinematic art, Revenant and Mad Max have the edge. One is a more serious movie, the other is just a toy. My vote would be for Revenant but I know it won’t win. A back-to-back win for Inarritu would be a knockout from which the mainstream film critics will never recover. Too good to be true.
MM:FR is definitely winning Editing. We agree.
I don’t know. I don’t think they’re necessarily thinking about repeat winners in the tech categories. And Revenant just isn’t the kind of film that takes Picture without Director (or even vice versa I’d say). Plus, it can only really win Actor, Cinematography, and maybe Editing, but that probably goes to Mad Max. Barring an exciting Hardy upset, Revenant needs the support in the Director race to win Picture. I think the Globes and BFCA pointed us to the two most likely outcomes and Revenant either wins both top awards or neither, in which case Spotlight/Big Short wins the preferential ballot and has the narrative of the most important story, but the Academy wants to honor Miller for his achievement.
Also, Seale pulled that off at 70. Unbelievable if you think about it.
And Editing, the other key tech? Margaret Siskel had 480 HOURS OF FOOTAGE to cut into a film. She spent 3 months only to go through that huge pile of footage. And she managed to squeeze them into the tightest, most hysterical, exhilarating two hours in action movie history. If she doesn’t win the Oscar, it’s RIDICULOUS
I think Seale will win cinematography.. I saw something on youtube about it and reminded me how amazing it is. They have already rewarded recently (x2) Lubezki and TR is not his best work for many.
If there’s a split, it will be with George Miller winning Best Director.
I think this holds more for director. I think there is a reasonable chance of a split if the Revenant gets BP. I can’t see it splitting the other way
I’m not saying they should vote it against it because they are Catholics, I thought they might. It doesn’t show the church in a good light. And I don’t think it should.
Actually that’s not true. People didn’t start talking about awarding the trilogy until Two Towers. And most people loved Moulin Rouge. I’m not saying it didn’t have some haters, but polarizing would be inaccurate.
I think the biggest thing The Revenant has going against it is backlash from people who refuse to award AGI back-to-back Oscars for Picture and Director. I just can’t see it happening. Maybe I’m wrong. I think Seale or Deakins will win Cinematography for the same reason.
Out of the Best Picture nominees, the only two films that will stand the test of time are Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant, both for technical achievement and artistic vision. Of those two, Mad Max: Fury Road is by far the superior film. The Academy has a chance to get this right for a change, I hope they’re smart enough to realize the opportunity they have.
Still need to see TBS and Revenant.
1. Room
2. Bridge of Spies
3. Brooklyn
4. Mad Max
5. Spotlight
6. The Martian
Hate not having seen one of the eight yet (Brooklyn)
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Spotlight
3. Brooklyn (Guessing maybe – possibly as high as 2 because I don’t love Spotlight)
Rest of the movies all have at least a few things that really bother me about them but if I had to choose…
4/5. The Big Short/The Martian in some order
go back to Imdb
Speaking of awards narratives, not sure if anyone read this but for Mad Max stans …. this made me laugh.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/compost/wp/2016/01/14/an-unbiased-look-at-the-best-picture-nominees-of-2016/?postshare=7711453128498407&tid=ss_tw
I think both The Revenant and Spotlight are Oscar bait – in that they’re serious, cast with leading dramatic actors, dealing with big themes, etc. The fact that they’re *well-executed* Oscar bait doesn’t change that. LOTS of good movies are well-executed Oscar bait. Were it not for the hopes of Oscars, I’m not sure the studios would ever greenlight any thing literate again.
Sasha has just come to the realization that The Revenant is too big to fail. It’s too ambitious and too great in order to fall..
ACE/BAFTA/SAG ensemble. What it doesn’t have is Globe nod for director.
Thanks….
You’re counting it wrong. The BAFTA can only be counted from 2012 on because they changed the way they voted. Before, the memberships picked the nominees and the branches picked the winners. Now they’ve swapped it to match the Academy so strike that. What Spotlight has against it is actually a lot more than that but start with BAFTA – not since 2012 has a film without a picture or directing nomination to win.
Also, none of these stats really matter if you’re talking Crash (2005) or The Departed. What counts more is the fact that 6000 people in the Editors Guild (not 90 in the Globes) didn’t put Spotlight down as one of their best. That is why the stat matters.
Niow I understand! I was limiting my thoughts in terms of Oscar nominations.
It’s a modern masterpiece in my opinion, but plenty of people didn’t like it too much.
I don’t know, man. To me Oscar movie is something like The Danish Girl. Something so carefully customized for the Academy that only they can like it.
Spotlight is simply a low profile film with an important subject. Much more festival fare than Academy movie.
Sasha: in the frontrunners list, it appears “Columbia”. The name of the country is Colombia…
Already corrected, thanks!
1) The Big Short
2) The Martian
3) ?
4) ?
5) (tie) Spotlight, The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road
8) Bridge of Spies
? = I haven’t seen Brooklyn or Room but I already know I don’t like those others so…
I think you mean Spotlight
I disagree. For me it’s not just about shouting. I’ll give you that you can never know exactly what a director is thinking when making a movie so bait is a word to use with caution. But Spotlight is definitely the most traditional Oscar movie of the four.
Spotlight missed BAFTA nominations for Director and Editing as well the ACE Eddie nomination.
“The Big Short has every nomination necessary to win Best Picture and is the only one in the Oscar race so far that can claim this distinction”
“Spotlight” is in the same position Sasha: picture, director, screenplay, two supporting nods (TBS has only one) and editing. I don’t understand your argument.
Didn’t hate, just found it overrated. So sick of hearing the 12 year thing. Loved Birdman so was very happy with how it turned out.
Pretty much everyone I know thought it was boring.
Spotlight is so Oscar bait : real, important subject, “truth will triumph” ending, and The Big Short subject is kind of Oscar baity, too.
I thought The Revenant was a bit pretentious, so I count that too among the movies who were looking for Oscar this year. Not exactly Oscar bait though.
No voter can seriously say “Oh, I won’t vote for that, those are PRIESTS! How dare those journalists..”. It’s just too 2016 for that.
If they vote against it because of the investigation, it’s not because they’re Catholics. It’s because they’re morons.
No. I hate that damn thing.
He’s such an amazing actor and has only received one Oscar nom to date. Seriously, he was good in even Transformers: Age of Extinction.
That analysis was meant specifically for split years. It’s been corrected.
I’m not so sure of your no one dislikes Spotlight point you keep making. I would have thought a decent proportion of the older male voters would be Catholics who may not go for it.
I can’t see Fury Road or TBS up there.
Revenant has a lot of buzz at the moment and is #1 at the US box office. That will help it.
I still think Spotlight is the favourite. If PGA go Revenant, I think it’s sewn up.
That’s why I wish Liev Schreiber would’ve been nominated.
**** you ****….you and your **** **** **** ..go **** **** **** his***** if you like…just like***** ******* ****** ****** ******…..**** his ******
[Edited. Cleaned up. Fixed] -Ryan
We have very different views so deal with that. I do not need your condescending comments. In other words Go Fuck yourself!
Jeez.. why can’t people debate opinions without insulting others? And yes, if I’m attacked I’ll respond as such.
And Birdman took both — so I’m not sure what you’re saying.
“Since 1929, only Alfonso Cuarón has managed to win Best Director without a corresponding screenplay nomination.”
James Cameron, Titanic.
Also, The Sound of Music, Cavalcade, The Divine Lady, and Two Arabian Nights won Best Director without Screenplay nominations, but their directors didn’t write the screenplays.
It has a March release in the U.S.; it’s on home media in other parts of the world.
So, no, I’ve not seen it.
nice try…..mad max has lot going on in single shot….AGI just shot a single scene….lot has to do with cold and thats it
ooh yeah shot in ice with wafer thin plot…seriously?? 2 or 3 shock value scenes and its best picture ? mad max said soo much with out saying anything vocally about the world…revenant is so called masterpiece in only visuals..story is soo weak that people would just fast forward and nobody is gonna sit though revenant again….mad max has rewatchability…heck i can see ben hur all over again…revenant not soo much…that whole thing with fish and bison liver is just place holder….not story…just to show leo coming from cold water in icy locations so he can win oscar….this movie is packaged to win oscar….from the get go…and you are like a rat in the trap…just went for cheese and you are caught in the trap of thinking this is a great movie…your ignorance to housing bubble leads you to compare this to oceans……how foolish are you?
I’ve never even heard of Pawn Sacrifice 😮
My own rankings:
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Brooklyn
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Room
———————————
6. The Big Short
7. Spotlight
8. Bridge of Spies
It’s sad the winner will probably come from the lower branch.
My choices are:
1-50. Carol
51. Inside Out
52. Mad Max: Fury Road
53. Brooklyn
54. Room
72. The Martian
99. Spotlight
114. The Big Short
250. Bridge of Spies
999. The Revenant
Preferential Ballots give you 999 slots, right?
My:
1. The Revenant
2. Room
3. The Martian
4. Mad Max
5. Spotlight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Brooklyn
8. Big Short
I have. First 30 minutes were probably the worst thing Malick has ever put on screen. Then it gets better. Someone should tell him to stop making movies just for the sake of it.
Anyone seen Malick’s newest, ”Knight of Cups”? Isn’t it already out on Blu-Ray?
I love ”Moulin Rouge”! As polarizing as it was, I was thrilled to see it win PGA. Should’ve won the Oscar, too, but they snubbed Luhrmann for Director (even tho’ he got a DGA nomination).
They missed there chance of awarding Malick with The Thin Red Line and The Tree of Life and like I said instead went in favor of Oscarbait bullshit.
They could have really gone for any of his movies except “To the wonder”. Like, “The thin red line”? “The tree of life”? “Days of heaven”? “The new world”? You name it. It works as Best Picture.
PS: Inarritu chose many of Malick’s collaborators for “The Revenant”.
What a shame they didn’t honor Malick for ”Days of Heaven.” … Now THAT’S a movie that Ennio Morricone deserved to win his Oscar for. … At least Nestor Almendros won for Cinematography. … Small world, but Jack Fisk (now nominated for ”The Revenant”) art-directed ”Days of Heaven.”
Schreiber’s very good, too. But even better in the lesser-seen ”Pawn Sacrifice.”
And Tobey Maguire, Leo’s pal, was Oscar-worthy, too. Too bad nobody saw that. 🙁
Yeah, the premise may sound, on paper, like Oscar bait but McCarthy’s low key style definitely isn’t. I was actually very impressed by Schreiber’s performance in Spotlight.
I agree with you 100% on Tucci. I have no idea why HE didn’t get the Oscar buzz instead.
If the Academy want to reward a Malick movie, let them award Malick, not Inarritu, for it.
Still have yet to see The Revenant. Should finally get that over with this week.
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Brooklyn
3. The Big Short (my current BP prediction)
4. Spotlight
5. The Martian
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Room
Rankings aside, not a bad film at all in that bunch
Sorry, I thought you were replying to me.
I loved Keaton in Spotlight. He could have easily gone off the rails as Ruffalo did, yet he kept his character grounded. Not the best performance of the ensemble (that was Tucci) but still a very good one.
When did i say it was Oscar bait performance?
The Revenant really is the achievement of the year. It’s the closest as cinema can get to a work of art. Yet, they will probably give it the middle finger like they did Saving Private Ryan, Fellowship of the Ring and go in favor of some Oscarbait bullshit.
And I usually love Keaton, but this performance seemed so ”actory” & emphatic to me.
Yet this is what passes for Oscar-worthy. I wish he won an Oscar for ”Beetlejuice” instead.
I’m old enough to remember Moulin Rouge when it came out and it was very polarising. Some people really, really hated what Luhrmann did. And Fellowship of the Ring, while very popular, suffered from voters knowing that it was part of a planned trilogy. The feeling was, why give it BP now when we can just wait and reward the last one? The most recent Star Wars has a bit of that going on right now. Who knows, if the next two films move on from hyper-nostalgia, develop their own identity and are still critical hits, AMPAS could do a Return of the King.
Having seen them all, here’s my ranking
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Room
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Spotlight
6. The Revenant
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn
That’s just a bad performance. Not an Oscar bait performance.
My choices are:
1 The Big Short
2 Mad Max: Fury Road
3 The Revenant
4 The Martian
5 Spotlight
And I have yet to see Brooklyn, Room, and BoS. The interesting thing is that those five are awesome films. The first three are really artistic styles with many risky choices. The Martian and Spotlight are good, but felt very safe. My feelings toward Spotlight are similar to Argo and The King’s Speech—films done well but not much beyond that.
Ruffalo overacted during the entire movie. It was jarring as fuck.
”Spotlight” is one of the subtlest of movies. In fact, the one false moment (to me) is when Ruffalo yells, ”We gotta nail these scumbags!” … As a journalist who’s worked in many newsrooms, that NEVER happens. And that was about the most Hollywood moment in the whole thing. Ironically, it’s probably that phony moment that got Ruffalo his nomination.
I think Revenant has this in the bag thanks mostly to Leo. They’ll give Mad Max the consolation Best Directors prize and Spotlight/Big Short the screenplay honors. Awards for everyone! It’s what they’ve been doing as of recent.
But here’s the most intriguing scenario of all however — Best Film/Best Director goes to the one film not mentioned in the battle of four above, the one film in its own mini battle (with Brooklyn). If the studio can credibly roll it out over the next few weeks, perhaps Room has a shot.
If you want Oscar bait, have the actors shout their lines. You can barely hear them in Spotlight.
Spotlight is non Oscar bait?? That’s news for me.
My ranking: Revenant (9/10) > Mad Max (8,5/10) > Spotlight (8,5/10) > TBS (8/10). So i think they are all very good
agree.
IMO, MM:FR and TR are masterpieces that will still be appreciated and talked about in say 15 years. I think even TM fits here.. It’s Matt Damon after all 🙂
Spotlight will be a low key good drama, not so well remembered but still there for some. TBS will also be vaguely talked about, something like the Oceans movies that had a lot of hype but then faded.
I have no stats to back it up except bucket loads of passion but Mad Max please win all that you can. Martian would do for BP too.
After watching The Revenant, I’ll be rooting even more for… Mad Max and George Miller. This was the true achievement of the year.
I have the feeling about Spotlight that I had about Birdman last year-it will take best picture, but not director.
My top 3
1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Brooklyn
Carol would have been my number 2 pick .
“Moulin Rouge and Fellowship of the Ring were both better by a long way – but they, like this year, were two big tech movies facing down a character drama. In the end, the character drama won out not because they liked the movie more (although that’s certainly possible) but because Ron Howard was the Hollywood son who had finally made good.”
This is why these stupid ass narratives ruin everything. These people should be picking the best picture for posterity. They should be saying “this is the film that was best of the year” otherwise it makes them look stupid and out of touch. Then someone like you has to explain what in the hell they were thinking to people who were too young or just don’t remember. If they had any integrity their choices wouldn’t need explaining a mere 14 years on.
Go Leo! Go Revenant! I dont know that Miller has better shot than AGI. When Cuaron won, Gravity was close second in Best Picture race. Mad Max is probably 4th.