The Writers Guild has been a less influential guild of late, in terms of Oscar forecasting, because so many of the potential frontrunners often get left off their list because of eligibility rules. Simply put: no writer is eligible for a WGA nomination who is not a member of the Writers Guild. This eliminates non-guild members like Tarantino and most international films, like The King’s Speech. There are other WGA/Oscar disconnects less easy to explain. Last year, Gillian Flynn became the first writer in history to get a nomination from the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice, the Scripter, the WGA, the BAFTA and miss out on an Oscar nomination. This was partly because Whiplash was deemed an original screenplay at the WGA and then switched to the always more competitive adapted category at the Oscars — filling up an available Best Adapted slot where it did not belong. I will remain bitter probably for the rest of the my life over that one. I will reserve my comments to the weather when speaking about what scripts did ultimately win.
This year, there are a few scripts that are ineligible for the WGA, like Brooklyn, for starters, and of course, The Hateful Eight. Also absent, reported by Kris Tapley, Mad Max: Fury Road, Ex Machina, Inside Out. Also, Anomalisa, Room and 45 Years. How this will shake out for Oscar — well, you will have to take a wild guess.
When it comes to picking the winners, in general, they pick screenplays for the leading potential Best Picture nominees or winners. There are rare exceptions, like Charlie Kaufman winning for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Talk to Her, or Almost Famous. It can happen, but it’s rare happening more common to occur in original than adapted.
What I’m thinking for Oscar would be:
Original
Spotlight, Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
Inside Out, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Pete Docter
Bridge of Spies, Charman, the Coens
Ex Machina, Alex Garland
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Alt:Trainwreck, Amy Schumer
That means, the WGA’s Original category will look a little different than the Oscars — and it might go something like:
Spotlight (the winner), Josh Singer, Tom McCarthy
Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman, the Coens
Sicario, Taylor Sheridan
Trainwreck, Amy Schumer
Joy, David O. Russell
The buzz from this might alter the Oscar race slightly and it might end up looking something like:
Spotlight (the winner), Josh Singer, Tom McCarthy
Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman, the Coens
Sicario, Taylor Sheridan
The Hateful Eight, Tarantino
Ex Machina, Alex Garland
Alts. Trainwreck, Joy
Moving on to Adapted, the Oscar list might look like:
Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short, Adam McKay
The Martian, Drew Godard
Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
Room, Emma Donoghue
Brooklyn, Nick Hornby
So the WGA might look like:
The Big Short, Adam McKay
The Martian, Drew Godard
Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
Room, Emma Donoghue Carol, Phyllis Nagy
Brooklyn, Nick Hornby The Revenant, Inarritu
Then, depending on how things go, the Oscar Adapted category might look like:
The Big Short, Adam McKay
The Martian, Drew Godard
Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
The Revenant, Mark L. Smith, Alejandro González Iñárritu
Brooklyn, Nick Hornby
Can’t you just see them shutting out both women writers? I certainly can. It’s a boys club, we know this.
What are your predictions?