DGA Preview – Wide Open Race, No Clear Favorite

Just as Sasha surmised, 2 days ago

https://twitter.com/AwardsDaily/status/695291135481090049

🙂 Yeah, it’s definitely best to know exactly what we’re talking about first.

Cheers mate I hope it was well said however I in bad habit of using my mobile touch phone for shorter posts meaning typos o o…

What time are they being handed out ?

It’ll win editing and/or supporting actor as well. We have no more proof of The Revenant’s BD claim that we do The Big Short’s editing claim (we have less), so it’s either 2 vs. 3 or 3 vs. 4, depending on how you look at it. Either way, it’s an insignificant difference.

Even if that rumor is more than just a rumor (I have my doubts), it’s still not that important, because the PGA and AMPAS have quite different memberships. The producers’ branch is only a rather small part of the Academy, and the shared members are an equally small part of the PGA (since they have roughly equal total numbers.) Just because it was close there, it’s hardly proof it’ll be close at the Oscars as well. And that’s literally the only “evidence” at all we have of The Revenant being close – the DGA win won’t be evidence of that, but only evidence that it’s the favorite for BD. Nothing more. And the evidence (from other precursors) we have against The Revenant winning is, as I’ve already mentioned many times, overwhelming…

Also, I personally think that the Academy is no more likely to vote for The Revenant for BP than the PGA, so, even if you assume it’ll still be close, there’s absolutely no reason to think The Revenant won’t lose again, be it by 3 or 7 or 1 vote. Not to mention that, given how the preferential works, we can only “know” that it was a 3 votes difference between first and second place at the PGA. So, if The Revenant was eliminated third or fourth (which is highly likely, in my opinion), for all we know, had it been the finalist, instead of Spotlight, or whatever it was that finished second, the difference could easily have been as high as 50 votes, for example, since, given how divisive The Revenant is – we assume -, a whole lot of the redistributed ballots from the actual second place’s pile could have gone to The Big Short, and much fewer to The Revenant, despite their counts being close before said redistribution. In fact, it’s almost a given, in my opinion.

All this ‘3 votes’ rumor tells us is that it was close between first and second. For all we know, The Big Short could have won easily over both the third and fourth place finishers, by far bigger margins than 3 votes, had either of those been the finalist. That makes even more sense if we assume Spotlight was the one that came second, because that’s the least divisive movie of the other three. The fact that it was ranked higher than the second place finisher on only 3 ballots tells us nothing about how many ballots it was ranked higher on than the movies eliminated in third and fourth. So even this isn’t actual proof of there being a 4-way race, unless somebody who had access to all of the ballots bothered to count all of this stuff (on their own time) before putting out the rumor – which, let’s face it, is almost sure to not be the case. They’re probably not even allowed to do stuff like that.

So yeah, your argument looks stronger to you. 🙂 Not to me… But it’s OK if you think it’s stronger. Makes it more suspenseful for you, which can’t be a bad thing. I’m very confident about this and I don’t feel the need to convince you of it, nor do I think it would serve any purpose in particular. The Oscars will settle it (and quite possibly the DGA before that, though Inarritu could definitely win there and fuel this, to me, ultimately rather pointless discussion – since I don’t think The Revenant has actual good chances at all). I’d much rather reserve my efforts for less clear-cut (in my opinion) aspects of the race…

Just spotted I typed Spotlight instead of The Big Short. As I was discussing the PGA, that was obviously not intended (but Spotlight would probably have been the runner-up)..

Bet365 hasn’t won its legal battle with the Romanian Gambling Commission yet, so it’s still not available here, sadly. 🙁 I have an 888sport account, for lack of better options, but they don’t offer DGA odds, if that’s what you meant.

Yeah, but, like Sasha pointed out, the editing branch that didn’t nominate Birdman is a few hundred strong, whereas ACE has 6000 voters (or something like that.) Not surprisingly, there have been far more exceptions to the editing rule, albeit, until Birdman, all of them pre-1983, than to the ACE rule.

“I am saying that due mostly to the psychological impact that would have on the race”

That’s an argument (though I prefer the argument that McCarthy winning the DGA shows highly unexpected strength for Spotlight.) But it’s not like Spotlight is taking this by storm. It still lose the PGA, and Oscar voters won’t forget that. They won’t feel pressured to vote for Spotlight, just because it won the SAG and DGA, since they have a perfectly valid alternative in the PGA winner. So the ACE stat could easily tell even in that case. And probably will. But, yeah, like I said, the unexpected nature of such a win would, indeed, make it a lot tougher to call. Unless the WGA gave us an unexpected extra clue. 🙂

“Anyway DGA beats any guild except PGA. If AGI wins the DGA, then TR will be second behind TBS.”

I don’t like to look at these in a vacuum. DGA beats any guild except PGA as long as one of the movies (in this case, The Revenant) doesn’t have a million other stat problems (lack of screenplay/WGA/SAG Ensemble nominations), in which case that movie winning the DGA is almost sure to mean no more than that it’s the favorite to win BD, but not in any way that it’s even among the top favorites to win BP. Gravity was ONLY in the discussion in 2013-14 because it also tied for the PGA, in my opinion. Otherwise, it would have easily been a very distant third, behind American Hustle. Which might not have lost all 10 anymore, had Gravity been weaker. It might have won editing, for example – that was clearly a ‘dragged along in a near-sweep’ type of win for Gravity, since it didn’t win the ACE (American Hustle and Captain Phillips did).

“It will be almost impossible for “Spotlight” beat both the PGA and DGA.”

No, because that has happened before (Crash and Shakespeare in Love), whereas a movie not nominated for screenplay+WGA has never won, and a movie not nominated for SAG Ensemble hasn’t won since 1996. And, obviously, no movie nominated for either of the three has ever won. These are clues that, in my opinion (and history supports that), are far more important than a DGA win in a year in which the two Oscar frontrunners for BP are both exceedingly weak BD contenders, based on precursors.

The DGA and SAG Ensemble awards, because they aren’t specifically BP awards, need to be looked at a little differently, in my view. They only indicate strength in the BP race as well when all (or at least most) of the other clues corroborate that the movie that wins them really is among the very strongest BP contenders of the year (which The Revenant, based on precursor stats, simply isn’t, this year – nor is Mad Max: Fury Road, sadly.) If splits never happened, then we couldn’t say that about the DGA. But they do, and they aren’t exactly rare, especially under the preferential system. This is a problem the PGA doesn’t have, because that one is about as close to a BP award as you can get (since it awards the producers, like the BP Oscar.)

There’s also The Full Monty, even though that one didn’t also win BP.

1. Adam McKay – 30%

That’s a great number. His film won the PGA. He scored both an Oscar and BAFTA nomination.

2. Alejandro G. Inarritu – 29%

He’s neck and neck with McKay. The Revenant won the Globe for Drama, director, and leading actor, and scored a best director nomination at the Oscars and BAFTAs.

3. George Miller – 25%

My big objection is the BAFTA snub. Mad Max 4 is no Gravity or Saving Private Ryan. But what it does have in its favor is the technical recognition and the fact it won EDDIE, Critics Choice best director, and 18 critics circle best director prizes.

4. Tom McCarthy – 10%

Makes sense. His film won the SAG, Critics Choice for best picture, and 19 critics circle best picture prizes. But on the other hand, it didn’t score a BAFTA nomination for best director and failed to score an ACE nomination.

5. Ridley Scott – 1%

No BAFTA. No Oscar. The only thing going for it is the Globe Best Comedy/Musical win and Scott being overdue.

People high up at the PGA?

Argo captured the 1970s well ; had a fast pace and scene splitting ..that’s how I would compare it to TBS

I suspect that the Revenant is going to win BAFTA for the following reasons ..
A/…..There is a lot of buzz around the movie here in the UK
B/….It has the Oscar winning Decaprio in it
C/ last year Bafta missed Birdman and so it will be an opportunity to reward Innarito
D/ I think that Revenant ”chimes ” with a Brit audience more so than TBS

I thought The Martian was most like Argo: a bunch of government people brain-storming to rescue one of their own trapped and in danger. It just was a science fiction movie instead of using an imaginary science fiction movie as part of the scheme. Good, middle-brow filmmaking without heavy intellectual agonizing.

And, besides, who the hell really would know about that except the the accounting firm the PGA employed to perform the vote counting?

I just listened and he said “close race between four movies”, he didn’t say it was a four way tie, or that four films almost tied.

Twenty out of the last twenty-five Oscar BD winners have come from film nominated for cinematography. The only two films which are up for both BD and cinematography are MM: FR and TR. There’s 80 percent that one of those two films win BD. In comparison, the PGA has matched BD 16 out of 25. You are twice as likely to win BD if you’re nominated for cinematography than if you win PGA. No wonder Lubezki is in demand, he has been nominated four times in the last five years winning Best cinematography himself and BD for his directors in the last two years.

That is where the DGA comes into play, especially if Inarritu wins. Leading with 12 Nominations, GG/BAFTA/DGA winner for both best picture and director, best actor and best cinematography.

All it needs is the DGA and the race is a wrap..

I am saying that due mostly to the psychological impact that would have on the race rather just pure stat of PGA. ACE is not a big factor just like “Birdman” missing Oscar editing didn’t hurt its chances. Anyway DGA beats any guild except PGA. If AGI wins the DGA, then TR will be second behind TBS. It will be almost impossible for “Spotlight” beat both the PGA and DGA.

Totally agree.

I just wondered if Hammond might have got it mixed up somewhat? Is it possible that 4 films had almost the same number of number one votes? And maybe Spotlight eventually won by 3 votes from the second placed film? Could that scenario be possible?

+1000.

Since 2009, the nominations leader has won BP half the time (although Hurt Locker and Birdman were co-nomination leaders in their respective years). In contrast, Best Director/DGA has matched Best Picture five out of six times.

My assessment is that having the most nominations in the expanded BP era isn’t as reliable of an indicator as it used to be when predicting BP. And even when it was more important, it still was secondary compared to Best Director.

I didn’t hear him say that. Did you hear that somewhere?

Excellent. The Miller seems to be misplaced among Awards pundits.

The Pete Hammond PGA rumour is fascinating if true, but it is just a rumour.

If it was just a 3-vote win, then the race is as up in the air was we think it is.

I saw someone say Revenant was second, but he doesn’t say that. If it’s true, the “too divisive” argument that was made, as it was for Birdman, might not hold.

I think it’s less divisive than Birdman

I think a lot of critics haven’t forgiven Inarritu for beating their darling Boyhood last year and this has contributed to negative reviews.

I think the “won last year” is the strongest argument against Revenant for BD and BP

75% is way too much. I’d say just over 50%. No idea what percentages to assign to the others, though…

“If AGI wins DGA TR becomes second favourite after TBS and AGI favourite for BD. ”

Disagree. Still third in line, and still quite far behind.

Same.

“And TOM MCCARTHY for the win! I know he’s a longshot but I really have this feeling he’ll take it.”

Fingers crossed!… (But also ready for the inevitable defeat.)

I really want a share the wealth Oscars, with Miller for director, Revenant for cinematography, Spotlight and Big Short for original and adapted screenplays, either Big Short of Mad Max for editing, acting awards outside the BP frontrunners–except Leo–and us holding our breaths for the BP announcement.

Despite his unusual name, Benh Zeitlin is a 100% American, born in NYC and raised in its suburbs, educated at Wesleyan University.

“All I know is that if Inarritu takes it, “The Revenant” will end up winning Best Picture.”

That’s just what you’re hoping for… 🙂

“”The Revenant” has GG/ADG/SAG (Leo)”

All of those are pretty much irrelevant as BP precursors – yes, even the GG’s, given their pathetic matching record.

“For Oscar BD, while AMPAS is stingy with their Oscar, let it be reminded that on the voting ballot the director’s name is not listed, but only their corresponding movie.”

Wow!… That explains some things… 🙂

I think the sheer beauty of the images in “The Revenant” will overcome any “Lubezki’s won the last 2 years, so I’m voting for someone else” feelings. And his name will not be on the ballot.

The Oscars also nominated alot more foreign directors then the DGA.

Film directors have to be pretty damn cerebral. I usually love their nominees on Oscar morning. DGA is typically quite a bit more populist in their selections.

“Am I right that the Oscar voting just has the name of the film in each category?”

You are correct, at least according to Mark Harris (and several other pundits). With the exception of the acting categories, names don’t show up. I would hazard a guess that that is why someone like Roger Deakins has still not won, and Alexandre Desplat finally won after years of nominations.

James Whatney,

I was going to caution you, but our friend ‘Big Shpiel – the sequel’ has already said pretty much the same thing that I would have suggested you consider.

Mr. James Whatney. as a longer standing loyal member of awards daily.com let me say on behalf of the more rational members. This. And for record i been on this site for 15 yrs at least . Others who been around longer than u here can back me up on that. I accept my comments arnt to everyones taste or my writing style however . When u come on any self respecting film forum on the web i strongly advise you to focus on agreeing or disagreeing with the opinion. Attacking the personality however dnt bring that here. Hardly anybody does that so personaly as u did to me. Maybe u in the wrong place if u twist the way i say things into personality attaks?? Think bout it…

spoiler alert !! mad max will never win best picture…ever

who is pete hammond ?? is he a director ?? no….he is just a nobody reporter….rumours are bullshit..a win is a win is a win….after oscars he will tell TBS won by 1 vote….its doesnt matter…they just wanna sound knowledgeable

Nice!

Revenant, Max and Spotloght were next.

What’s that based on? fascinating if true

Which 4 ? the leading 4 ?

I keep telling that McKay will win the DGA but y’all are strangely moving your predictions just because Spotlight won SAG. The stats people!

Pete Hammond on Goldderby saying that four films were nearly tied for PGA and that Big Short won by three votes!!

Hm actually I’d say Spotlight is a little more like Argo in that they’re both more traditional dramas, and both are very sincere and self-aware. Big Short is more like Wolf of Wall Street, especially with the fourth wall breaks and all that, but Big Short is a tougher pill to swallow tan WWS because you actually see the effects of greed on the average guy. Big Short is also closer to Spotlight than to Argo because of their very strong focuses on the corruption at the institutional level, which is part of what makes them both so powerful (Argo and Wolf of Wall Street allude to institutional corruption, but it’s not their focus). Ultimately though Big Short is kind of a league all its own – somewhere between mockumentary and real documentary, with a few names edited out for privacy purposes (though we all know who the real-life men were behind the characters), not just in its style and editing and cameos, but in that its primary focus IS trying to explain, accurately, real-life events, as opposed to Spotlight, which of course is about real-life events and honors real-life people, but it’s not trying to explain how or why something happened or explore it – overall it’s a bigger meditation on other themes – themes of community, accountability, culpability, and journalism. I hope that makes sense

I’m sorry, what?

Unlikely, though twins do run in the family.

If AGI wins DGA TR becomes second favourite after TBS and AGI favourite for BD. If McKay wins DGA then it’s all over. If Miller wins it will be like the same situation as TR and AGI. If McCarthy wins it will be a huge and that will make “Spotlight” and favourite to win BP and BD. If Scott wins, the it will be prove of how strange this season has been. BAFTA wen their own way last year and this year have gone big for “Carol”, which is the best film last year, and BOS so I am not convinced unlike others that they will match the Oscars.

Are you sure you’re not my twin; separated at birth? 🙂

Well, shockingly I am a Libran too. I don’t believe in astrology but I do like to balance things and I don’t really like leaning one side too much. I keep double guessing myself because I always think there must something that am missing and so I keep questioning everything. I am not good at making snap decision, and I am still unsure who will win. But I know a good reasoning when I see one and you’re reasoning is as good as any.

If Inarritu wins, he is the favourite for BD and Revenant is in the mix, but not favourite for BP.

If McKay wins, it’s all over and TBS is winning BD and BP.

If Miller wins, he is favourite for BD, mad max stays in BP mix, more of a longshot.

If McCarthy wins, Spotlight becomes BP favourite.

If Scott wins, I’ll start believing that psychic lady, and who knows for BP.

BAFTA should have some impact in terms of optics, being around the time of the start of Oscar voting. Do they do preferential for BP?

Follow this AwardsDaily link and you’ll see Adam McKay wearing a scarf. Have fun!

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/01/27/elizabeth-warren-watches-the-big-short/

I’m a shocker of a Libran – I keep equivocating on my perspectives. Thank you John, although I then realised that the Academy and DGA both overlooked the masterpiece from one of if not the very finest American director Scorsese for the flimsy Artist. So i don’t know. I’m clutching at straws and they keep breaking off in my hands! I just kept thinking back to Helen Hunt and Marisa Tomei; where the litany of foreigners in their category were ALL overlooked for the parochial choice; so wondering if in a splendid year such as this one, and the gravitas to both the American stories Spotlight and Big Short (despite its wonderfully droll and at times biting tone); that these two stories will rise to the top; leaving the more visceral and visual ‘foreign’ filmmakers with consolation prizes?

Erm…. I can’t stand some imaginary films like, say, Harry Potter. I never read the book ( books?) and have only watched the first film. Simply, I am not someone gets exited about fantasy or Sci-Fi films. I never read LOTR books either but I heard about them and was intrigued to see how it would turn out. Well it turned out to be the greatest film trilogy, a spellbound and visionary films which have set a bench few can only dream of reaching.

I’m just going to throw a little grenade into the thread (not my usual style), but wondering if both DGA and AMPAS this year will keep it American? As much as I’d love to see an Aussie director win; Dr George Miller isn’t that well known (even i’d forgotten he directed Witches of Eastwick) and the beautiful Lorenzo’s Oil, he is not as revered as a Peter Jackson, Jane Campion or Baz Luhrmann (and yes I’m mixing my directors from across the ditch in NZ)

Happy Feet was wonderful. The sequel not so much; ditto Babe 2. As others have pointed out the unlikelyhood but not impossibility of Alejandro (his name is too long for me to use) winning back to back for me at this point allows me to rationalise that what has been a 4 horse race; is more likely the 2 American films and stories to have the edge in such a strong field……. I will of course be happy to sit corrected.

rotten tomatoes disagree with you..if revenant wins its the least RT scored best picture since crash….revenant winning is like crash winning

u had to put revenant there didnt you…….leo fan?? jesus dude revenant is a survival movie with artsy stuff sprinkled to win oscars and nothing more…..u people are way up revenants imaginary a$$…hugh glass is basically non human….ofcourse you would like lord of the rings when compared to million dollar baby one is reality of life and other is imaginary…everyone wants to fly in the sky

Am I right that the Oscar voting just has the name of the film in each category?

This should help Revenant in Director and Cinematography against the “shouldn’t win again” votes.
Of course any voter than doesn’t know who did these things probably doesn’t deserve to vote anyway

[deleted]
[james, you’re crossing the line with personal attacks] – Ryan

Fury Rd is one of the best films of the year, and in light of my ‘Fury Rd’ withdrawal symptoms i ended my 10 year boycott in protest of the overblown over arrogant demented vision that Mad Mel (who really as mad as MAD MAX himself if not worse!):P but i ended it declaring to myself ‘i should be ashamed for not seeing Fury Rd or any of the prior mad max’s in the ‘pre- ‘passion’ era when all of hollywood liked and respected Mel.

So i declared boycott over and i got the Mad Max collection i just imagine Mel in the pre- PAssion era if ytou know what i mean when he was respected as he was in that time and frankly i think i end my lethal weapon boycott too they were intriguing compelling films too not of Mel’s but beyond that brilliant to watch!

But yes the Martian is the only one that commands both the overwhelming respect popularity of BOTH critics and the public above and beyond the Revenant and so therefore i agree with Gail (aside from her point about believing a fellow drunken psychic lol:P

and waaaayy above and beyond Spotl;ight and Big Short..but it a one of a kind film experience and the only one to for most of Damon’s travails on the red planet to portray Mars with scientific realistic precision it has ultimately trials tribulation entertainment and unforgettable cinematic experience..and yet the oscar has gone blind in both eyes to the true worth and value of superbly crafter escapism by engaging in their selfish self indulged campaign of undermining and snuffing out the most successful filmmaker of the lot of nominees this year in Sir Ridley Scott..many oscar fans that once were that jumped off the bandwagon is not cos of the oscar so white thing alone but the simple fact a long standing revered and respected filmmaker has been snubbed more times than Scorsese was till his breakthrough officially now almost right/?

and his ability to deliver both breakthrough, genre redefining and critically acclaimed films more often than not is simply absolutely a achievement none of the active director nominees have achieved..he done it numerous times..Blade Runner, Gladiator, Alien, Black Hawk Down…list goes on and on….and oscars snub is extraordinary hypocrisy and a core betrayal of Ridley Scott’s contribution in Hollywood..no i owe you to see here despite the fact as wrong as it is it a whole lot better than i owe you than to not be nominated at all..

Even if Martian does shock to win best picture at this point with no best director nomination..it would have to be the most undermined win of recent oscar history byu the very fact Ridley Scott is not even nominated..

(unless of course Martian sweeps most oscar categories which it wont but Gail and many others quietly and some not so quietly like myself lol) believe it should..

Is The Big Short a bit like ARGO ?

Nemes is astonishing. I admire what Garland did with Ex Machina but if Nemes doesn’t win this, it’s a travesty.

Such a strong category! At least four stand a chance — Joel Edgerton, Alex Garland, Marielle Heller, Laszlo Nemes. (The fifth nominee is Fernando Coimbra for Wolf at the Door). If going by the pure quality of the film, I don’t see how they can overlook Nemes. If they’re looking for the realization of a new directorial vision, I can see them going for Heller. If they want to recognize a director bringing success from other fields, then Edgerton or Garland.

Who’s winning Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director?

Well, I’m a little more astronomy and less astrology – let’s put that way. Also, there is no such thing as an “Oscar expert” in terms of predicting, only in terms of history.

Totally shallow here.

Voting period is 2/12 – 2/23.

im rooting for spotlight all the way.

Yep, BP is preferential only.

Can someone confirm for me that the Oscar ballots haven’t gone out yet? Think I read that somewhere? When do they go out?

Also only BP is preferential voting ?

The European style of Scott? The magical realism of Inarritu? The witty sophistication of McKay? The Australian pilot look of Miller?

Surely you can’t be that shallow. Who gives a f about a bloody scarf. Seriously

ugh men

BAFTA used to go their own way but they changed their voting system to be like AMPAS a few years ago. The similarities between the two probably come down to that change in the voting system, plus the general predictability of most awards seasons now (although, not so much this year!).

The funny thing about BAFTA is that they cap their voting membership. It
says here they have 7,500 members but only about
6,500 can vote and “places for voting membership are few.” Sounds
like new members have a harder time getting voting rights, which is the
opposite of what AMPAS is trying to do.
http://www.bafta.org/about/membership

250

i’m rooting for THE REVENANT all the way , sticking to my guns and won’t be too upset , after all all these people are rich af * and don’t need or care about my validation nor do they give me any money which i could use no shit lol
its not because something hasn’t happened in a long time or ever that it means it can’t , people win the lottery all the time and the odds there are crazy
so you go ALEJANDRO INARRITU champion your movie , your actor , your cinematographer all the way to the oscars , come on hollywood if you’re going to crown LEONARDO DICAPRIO as best actor at least give his movie other prizes too to declare to the world how much you really like him
( fingers crossed but boy its hard keeping a leash on that buoyant feeling of happiness that this is likely happening i think its the only thing going wrong that would crush me)

only McKay actually deserves it? He finally got to show off his real directing skills, out of the limitations of working with impro masters like Ferrell, Cohen and the like. That’s probably the main reason why The Big Short has a more “classic Hollywood” cast, and Carell shows some restraint and services the screenplay. True directors are noticing this, as anyone who did actually direct any short film. McKay’s achievement is no small wonder, and certainly my #2 pick for the win, after Miller. My order of preference is…

1. Miller. He made a top 100 films ever and a genre best… in 2015.
2. McKay. The movie is exactly what and how it should be. He never loses control, he always surprises, makes a dull but important subject, highly entertaining and fun while scary when the information comes back to you, after the screening.
3. Scott. He makes a fun, well directed film in which for once, he doesn’t show off his usual tricks, but services the film itself. His mastery in the control of sets and vfx never becomes too obvious, and shows some restraint. The Martian may not be in the level of Alien of Blade Runner, as a film all together, but that’s only because those screenplays were even better than this one (which is OK to great, but no masterpiece).
4. McCarthy. The biggest praise to Spotlight’s direction, is that it is almost invisible. You don’t really feel the film is directed, but rather lying on the shoulders of actors and screenplay (and it is). McCarthy wisely allows both aspects to be the strenght of the film and relies on film editing for the pay off, after 3/4 of the film being basically exposition, with little to none character developement, which will explode in our faces in the later quarter of the film. It’s a risky bet and worked out, despite Ruffalo almost derailing the film in a couple of moments (yes, I’m bitching again, about Ruffalo being nominated over the superior works of Keaton and Schrieber in the same film).
5. Iñarritu. Yes, he’s technically brilliant, but he does AGAIN the very same trick he’s done on everyone of his films: show off directing skills at the expense of the story and the movie’s actual needs. “The Revenant” is a film that could have been told in less than one hour, and basically has no theme. Nothing to chew on it. Just the classic story of revenge, with some strong nature as excuse. The film is showy but hardly entertaining, and quite boring, despite the awesome shots and a handful of masterful longshots perfectly choreographied. Back-to-back DGA wins or Oscars, would be a joke, and I hope voters aren’t blinded by this, as budget to fulfill your pretentious work, does not justify a win over people who are really changing the game and trying to be creative and service the film and themes.

Thank you Feli! I’m glad someone understands that I’m not a force to be reckoned with. I do my research to. I may not write as beautifully as Sasha (she’s poetic in every regard), but I am very similar to her. We both stand up for what we believe in, and we both take to the podium on issues we are passionate about! Hopefully I get to meet her one day. I will also give her a free reading and analyze her zodiac sign (I’ve always been curious as to what she is, but my intuition is she is a leader and someone who doesn’t hold back; based on her podcasts, she is also someone who would be fun to have a cup of coffee with).

Look for more updates from me- Ridley Scott and his team are all winning Oscar statues on the 28th of February. I will be organizing an Oscar BRUNCH that Sunday; I intend to have champagne early so by the time the ceremony is in tow, I am more then loosened up and ready to blog to those who supported me (and those that did not; Andrew is sadly one who didn’t. Well, we’ll see about that!)

Technically, Joseph L. Mankiewicz already did that. He won the Oscar and the DGA twice. He won them one year apart at the DGA because of the guild not voting on the basis of a calendar year in its first two years.
And TOM MCCARTHY for the win! I know he’s a longshot but I really have this feeling he’ll take it. If Innaritu loses here, The Revenant is done. It already lost the Cinema Editors Guild, the Producers Guild of America. It’s not up for the WGA (or the adapted screenplay Oscar) and SAG snubbed it in Cast. At this point, only the DGA could give it hope.

Sir Ridley Scott for the win!!

I vote Sasha puts you as a featured expert, then does an article withdrawing your status as an expert when your DGA and Oscar predictions are wrong

Forgive me if you’ve already done your duty, but I’m going to spam some posts.

You gang all know about the Awards Daily “Daily Awards” yes?

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These are AD’s own choices. Never mind the nominations the Academy gave us.

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Here’s the official description

This is a new twist on our annual Simulated Ballot. We’ve decided run two Final Voting Phases in parallel. We’re presenting the first half of the final ballot tonight. It is based on the choices made by Awards Daily readers before the actual Oscar Nominations were announced. Here’s how Rob explains it:

This is the final ballot for the first ever Daily Awards. These nominees were determined by the 8th Annual Simulated Ballot. Unlike previous years when we discarded own choices for nominations when the actual Oscar nominees were announced, you can now vote for your own favorite nominees.

This ballot process will follow the same rules as the final ballot in years past, but the Daily Awards ballot will only offer the ten categories we voted on a few weeks ago.

These are not the Oscar nominees. These are the nominees chosen by the 1500 voters who participated in Phase 1 of the Simulated Ballot.

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How much faith we putting in the ACE Eddie when it won for comedy? What other BP winners were in the comedy category when they got their Eddie? I guess I just ask b/c Comedy seems less competitive than drama. It might just be in my head though.

1) Vindicates a theory that if they love your movie; they love you; whether you are a visionary director; an old war horse or an enfant terrible!

2) Although, before somebody disabuses me of the fact; this theory didn’t work with Ben Affleck and Argo.

Not so fast! The Directors Branch of the Academy nominated the directors. Maybe the 400 members of the AMPAS director’s branch were not wild about Argo or Affleck either one.

Just because the another 2000 or 3000 members of the Academy fell for Argo, that doesn’t mean 400 esteemed directors were so easy to fool.

So your 1st comment and your 2nd followup comment don’t have to contradict each other.

daveinprogress, Maybe you’ve proven something.

If your first theory is correct (and I believe it is).. then that just proves that the directors in the Academy felt there were many better movies that Argo that year, and they named 5 better movies and 5 better directors to prove it.

Tim. It’s the age-old dichotomy of correlation and causation.

Nobody is trying to say that the BAFTAs ‘influence” the Oscars — I don’t think they try to, and they couldn’t anyway, even if they wanted to, because the BAFTA nominees and winners in recent years come too late for Oscar voters to even see what the BAFTAs will do before before Oscar ballots are due.

So, let’s forget about causation. There is no causation between BAFTA voters do and what the Oscar voters will do.

But over the years, there are obvious and frequent correlations between BAFTA outcomes and Oscar outcomes that have become apparent.

Those are the connections and patterns that Sasha and Marshall look for when they build stats models. They look for parallels: when BAFTA does X, often Oscar will also do X as well.

Yes, part of this is because several hundred BAFTA members are also Oscar members, so it might be tempting to assume that BAFTA tendencies have been insinuated into the Oscar ranks. Or, it might also be that many of the BAFTA members who have become Academy members are those British filmmakers who crossover frequently into Hollywood, so maybe they have brought Hollywood tendencies back with them to the UK.

But I believe that effect is probably negligible. More likely, the patterns emerge just because BAFTA and AMPAS both represent the elite of UK and USA filmmakers — so why wouldn’t the two groups have similar tastes and matching patterns of behavior?

Hope I haven’t over-explained or got this wrong. Someone shut me up, and someone else correct me if I’m mistaken.

There would be a certain amount of intersection between them and the British members of AMPAs. I am not sure how much though.

DGA has never given the same person the award two consecutive years.

Are Bafta members also Academy members? Why else would their stats matter? Except the fact that they try to vote like the Oscars.

The REVENANT is more a achievement in cinematography than directing. Besides unlike his win last year, voters can tell revenant lacks broader context . Nothing in relation to setting and bakground where the revenge tale is xplaind and in any event i can just see the veteran directors who been nominated and won in non consecutive yrs geting angry with the dga if inarratu wins 2 yrs ago . Compared to others like Scott who deserves to win meaning sadly he wont, inarratu is a newby and too new for dga to set a precedent it would be so unfair on other better established directors who have achieved more for longer to hollywood…..

For that reason of using the excuse to set A precedent for precedents sake for the sake of a guilds own self promotion which is only a recent fad for guilds to decide the way they do. So really mckay and mccarthy two names that public barely cared about until this yr honestly? Dnt u think it enough of one off one hit wonder directmrs barely knwn by the public winning things? Ridiculous.

Sasha you missed a very important stat concerning if George MIller wins which i have no issue with him winning given like ridley scott, thez both been around for some time both done a lot to reshaping film making trends to suit the times .even though miller done this over far fewer films compared to scott, in last few decades he footprint is almost as big as SCOTTS for consistent high quality in filmaking in lesser films. But sasha. Miller winning means he could only become the 2nd ever australian film maker to win the dga since driving miss daisy . Did u knw that? Therefore if scott doesnt win miller should.

And as for the great trend setter visionary whn unjustly constantly got a slap in the face he certainly doesnt deserve? Well i think it time i devote a seperate post to my case why scott amwd the martian should and deserve to win most things frm dga point onwards

They are both the crowning directorial achievements of 2015. ^_^

I don’t know. Hugo lost to The Artist and Avatar lost to Hurt Locker. Birdman’s effects were clunky.

May be that Best Director is becoming the defacto Best Big Effects Film award. Tough to integrate big effects set pieces with the narrative and the performances. Fine with me

your comment works on so many levels. 🙂

I’m predicting McKay…mostly because I can’t decide between Miller and Inarritu. The Big Short is the front runner for Best Picture so this makes the most sense to me.

PS…if Scott wins, I’ll crack up so hard my lungs will fall out.

BRING. IT. ON.

Interesting tidbit on the Oscar ballot.

Thanks for the correction. I must’ve missed that as I combed the archives the other day.
Also notable: 1966 had a field of 5 DGA nominees, while 1967 had a field of 10 DGA noms

” DGA never award a DGA to the same director consecutive year.”

True. But it should be noted that that circumstance rarely even comes up. Only 2 DGA-winning directors have come back the following year with a consecutive DGA nomination. One of them is Elia Kazan, who won for ”On the Waterfront’ (1956) and returned to compete with ”East of Eden.” The other is Inarritu.

I’m a kook, so I’m free to do so. 🙂

This is indeed very interesting and exciting. All I know is that if Inarritu takes it, “The Revenant” will end up winning Best Picture. I think that we could safely eliminate both Ridley Scott and Tom McCarthy. The Winner will be between McKay, Inarritu and Miller.

I am not sure how it will play out. On face value,

“The Big Short” has PGA/ACE

But McKay hasn’t won a single critics award so far. Not even a runner-up.

“Mad Max: Fury Road” has ACE/ADG and has the BFCA Win and has the most critics wins

“The Revenant” has GG/ADG/SAG (Leo). If it takes DGA, it will back it up with the BAFTA the following week and it would be unstoppable.

But I am not sure if the DGA will want to give it to him twice in a row. I hope they will. But until I see it, I’ll be nervous.

Ang Lee and his wife are both American citizens now. Ang Lee and his American citizen family have lived in America for over 35 years. His two sons were both born in America.

There’s a 2006 photo caption from China’s People magazine that has an unverifiable quote from Ang Lee that has him saying he’s still a citizen of Taiwan.

I think I’ve read in a book I have that Ang has dual citizenship. I’ll find and verify when I have the time.

Dozens of online sources say Ang Lee is “an American director born in Taiwan” — the only place that says otherwise is that dubious photo caption from an 10-year-old edition of Chinese’s People magazine.

And the only place where that exists online is a Chinese website — so maybe they have an agenda?

Variety, 2007:

“The Oscar-winning helmer is treated as Taiwan’s favorite son, but he has become a naturalized U.S. citizen and has not made a film in Taiwan since “Eat Drink Man Woman” in 1994.”

Chung Fang:
(I see that you and I both edited our comments for the best accuracy possible.

The Los Angeles Times said in 2009 that Ang is a naturalized American Citizen.

“That glimpse of Woodstock was intoxicating. “Guys in big hair playing guitars. Something really cool. . . . You just have to worship them,” says Lee, who is now a naturalized U.S. citizen.”

The China Post (2007):

A naturalized U.S. citizen, Lee came to Taipei from Hong Kong Monday to receive the award and attend the premier of the film that won this year’s Golden Lion award of the Venice International Film Festival.

George Miller is going to the Green Place. Let him up!

Watch them give it to Scott and throw us all for a loop.

But really I’m predicting McCarthy. A large portion of the DGA membership is made up of TV folks and first and second unit directors. SPOTLIGHT plays beautifully on screeners and I think that block will reward it.

*However* I can say the same for McKay, but I think McCarthy is more widely respected and well liked.

We’ll see Saturday, but my gut says McCarthy and that will carry over to the Oscars where I’m sensing that SPOTLIGHT takes Picture, Director, Screenplay, and in a goodwill surge Ruffalo surprises in supporting; totally tally: 4.

Note: This is not what I want to happen! I’d like to see a Miller/Big Short split.

McKay will win with Miller as distant spoiler. Mad Max not being obvious runner up hurts him here. Also the fact there are no AFTRA basics voting.

It’s weird because I don’t think it can possible happen, but it’s points to Innaritu winning BD. I discounted him because I don’t like TR and it has way off from being a BP frontrunner. Also it’s miller who has been winning most of the BD. The reason it’s pointing to him is because TR is the only one nominated everywhere and that’s who usually wins. Miller and McCarthy both missed BAFTA BD while McKay missed Golden Globe BD. I am sticking with the BP frontrunner as the default choice for BD, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Innaritu won.

Correction, Sasha. Ang Lee was born in Taiwan, he mostly likely has a green card as he was questioned by Taiwanese press last year, and he said he is a proud Taiwanese, so he might have dual citizenship, but as far as I know, he is a green card holder unless he applied for citizenship.

Wow. Great article. Amazing stats!!!!! Thank you for that.

My thoughts:

If it’s Miller. 1) YAY! 2) Kinda hurts The Revenant. 3) Nothing gained for TBS or Spotlight.
If it’s Inarritu. 1) Strength, baby. Two wins in two years means The Revenant is STRONG.
If it’s McKay. 1) All but over. I’d say that TBS has it sewn up 99%.
If it’s McCarthy. 1) Spotlight gaining a lot and probably takes the reigns as #1.
If it’s Scott. 1) Good for him. 2) this doesn’t help anyone, most of all, us guessers 🙂