Predictions Friday: All You Need Is Love

One of the strongest forces driving many of the frontrunners for the Oscars, right now at least, would be love. This has been an election year full of hate. There has rarely been so much hate served up on a daily basis like there has been over the past few months. It’s everywhere. Love is really the only weapon to fight it. Nothing else can. We’re lucky that we belong to a chain of life where love must be the driving force for survival. It isn’t unique to humans. Love in some form may even run through the currents of trees and plants, as it does through all mammals. It is a beautiful thing, the best thing, and the only thing that has saved us, can save us, and will save us.

The reason we need films about love now more than ever was made abundantly clear to me last night as I watched Garth Davis’ sentimental and moving new film Lion. It is an ode to love, which is why it should break through to even the most emotionally frozen among us. If love can be strong enough to bind a small child far flung from his mother for 25 years, then it is strong enough to save us from impending doom. We can only hope. Lion joins La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Loving and Arrival as films that beckon to the enduring bonds of love — whether it be the depths of love between mothers and their babies, or the highs of romantic love that sometimes only touches us once in a lifetime, if we’re lucky. A father whose love for his children can’t be dimmed even at his own expense, an oppressed love made illegal, the love of a friend — I suspect that these feelings will shine through powerfully in a dirty, depressing election season.

There is a different kind of love that will also be at play — love for our heroes like Sully, or Jackie Kennedy, or Billy Lynn. We need our heroes and are here for them when they fall apart. That is a kind of love too. And it’s undeniable. Even in a film like Hell or High Water, which is about cinema as much as it is about anything else, the currents of love and loyalty drive the protagonist to break the law to save his family. Some might say these fundamentals always drive the Best Picture race but they really don’t. Heroism of individuals has been a key thread in recent years. Heroism against all odds. This year, though, the ties that bind seem bigger. At least for now.

Of course, there are many films left to see in the coming weeks. We only have a rough sketch of what the Oscar race might look like. First let’s look at what seem to be the strongest contenders for Best Picture so far.

Films that have been seen:

1. La La Land – Few films have so much going for them all at once as this one does. It would be easy to describe La La Land as a mix tape of Jacques Demy but really, the only inspiration from there is the tone of the musical — that mod casual style of song, dance and dress. But for me, that’s as far as it goes. It’s partly the cinema of it, how Chazelle writes a love letter to Los Angeles in such an intimately familiar way. What ultimately makes this such a great experience is the way it captures love itself as embodied in two people who are momentarily touched by it, and thus, touched forever. If we’re lucky we fall in love many times in ways that echo throughout our lives. But for most of us, this  happens only once in that singular way and may never happen again. Sadly, for many it never happens at all. La La Land is about that kind of love. What it ultimately says is this: we can fall in love in the way musicals try to capture. We do fall in love like movie love.

2. Loving – As important as any reminder of what’s at stake in this election, because this movie expresses what Lin Manuel Miranda said in his Tony acceptance speech: love is love is love is love. Jeff Nichols delivers this powerful message by drawing us into a momentous love story that changed history. Beautifully subtle, tremendously moving, the less the hype the better for this one.

3. Moonlight – A thrilling, unique portrait of a gay man growing up in a hyper-masculine culture who is taught that everything he knows about himself is wrong. But Moonlight, too, is about love and human connections being the thing — maybe the only thing — that can save us.

4. Sully – Sully is an ode to those who put their lives on the line for others every day. Eastwood’s film is a celebration of those everyday heroes — the first responders, air-traffic controllers, the flight crews. You can’t really watch or judge Sully’s actions fairly unless you see it also through the lens of real life. That man is a hero but so were so many others that day.

5. Lion – This is one of the most deeply moving films of the year. It is a reminder of the power of storytelling, and it’s truly why many of us continually turn to storytelling at all. Some come to films for a visual thrill, or a violent kick, or as film critics to be challenged by non-traditional narratives. But there is no denying how a film like Lion can transform us if we let it. Nicole Kidman gives a brilliantly raw performance but it’s true that this film belongs to Dev Patel who delivers one the best performances of the year, male or female. Lion embeds deeply but you know and I know that much of its reception will depend on what critics say and critics do not often go for frankly sentimental films (Academy members, however, appreciate a narrative that moves them).

5. Manchester by the Sea – A film about understanding the limits of oneself and a film about growing up. It is also about what really matters at the end of the day. Loving someone enough to know you’re not their best option is probably the hardest thing anyone can do. Manchester by the Sea is about human connections, bonds of love, bonds of family and of friends, neighbors and communities, those who stand by when the person we’ve chosen to save the day cannot.

6. Arrival – At once a celebration of speculative sci-fi and a tribute to the unique and exceptional genre of female-driven sci-fi — films like Alien, like Gravity, like Ex Machina. It requires a leap of faith and and a deep dive into elusive implications that aren’t readily understood but what it eventually uncovers about us, what it says about what it is to be human at all, is deeply profound. Life, death, love. Arrival is Denis Villeneuve’s best film and a sci-fi masterpiece. And yes, some Oscar pundits seem to believe it will be too complex for some Academy voters. Perhaps that’s true. But I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

8. Hell or High Water – Who knows where this film will land or if it will be remembered at all but I think I can say with a fair amount of confidence that it easily belongs on a list among the best films of 2016. A modern western that never strikes a false note, sometimes movies are good because they are simply that good, because the director somehow hits all the right notes, and all of the performances rise to the occasion.

We don’t know for sure how many of these will be nominated. I’d put all of my chips behind La La Land at the moment but every other film on the list here has its doubters. We don’t know where they will land.

Films coming out that some pundits feel are better options to fill in the gaps in the Best Picture lineup include:

1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, by the great Ang Lee.
2. Silence, by the man, the Marty.
3. Fences, August Wilson’s celebrated play adapted for the big screen by Denzel Washington.
4. Live by Night, Ben Affleck’s epic film noir, and what I would call for this director a return to form (Gone Baby Gone and The Town being the precursors).
5. Hidden Figures, the untold story of the black women who worked at NASA to put white men on the moon.

History tells us that generally speaking, only two films will come from the latter part of the year, if they get liftoff at AFI, or directed by a bravura filmmaker that everyone anticipates, like Martin Scorsese. Without seeing the films we have no way of knowing whether or not any of these will make it in. We just have our best guesses.

A word about Oscars so White. The Academy, as a rule, has rarely been inclined toward nominating films with all black casts. They will be pressured into taking care this year to do just that. But like last year’s fantasy idea that four films starring women would become BP nominees, it is probably fantasy to imagine all of the following will be chosen: Fences, Hidden Figures, Moonlight. Not to mention The Birth of Nation. Three are directed by and written by black artists. Choosing which of these will make the cut is tough. When we factor in Loving, a film about mixed marriage which also features a strong black cast, we probably need to add another film to this group. The Birth of a Nation was to be The One until it was hit with scandal over a case that happened 20 years old. And so it goes. Maybe all of them will be recognized — but I would bet, at most, two could make it. You have to think about each Academy voter’s top five. They don’t vote with politically correct notions in mind. Even with the diverse new additions to membership, we’re still looking at a mostly white, mostly (straight) male group of voters.

Herewith, predictions for today, September 23, 2016:

Best Picture
La La Land
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Silence
Lion
Sully
Manchester by the Sea
Arrival
Loving
Moonlight
Fences
Passengers
20th Century Women
Hidden Figures
Miss Sloane
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge
Jackie
Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Actor
Dev Patel, Lion
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Denzel Washington, Fences
Tom Hanks, Sully
Andrew Garfield, Silence or Hacksaw Ridge
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Best Actress
Emma Stone, La La Land
Viola Davis, Fences
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Amy Adams, Arrival
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Annette Bening, 20th century Women
Ruth Negga, Loving
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

Supporting Actor
Liam Neeson, Silence
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
Sunny Pawar, Lion
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Molly Shannon, Other People
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Clint Eastwood, Sully
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Garth Davis, Lion
Ben Affleck, Live by Night
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Morten Tyldum, Passengers

Original Screenplay
Loving
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight (deemed original by the WGA)
Hell or High Water

Adapted Screenplay
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Lion
Silence
Arrival
Sully

Cinematography
La La Land
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Silence
Arrival
Lion

Production Design
Arrival
Passengers
La La Land
Silence
Sully

Costumes
La La Land
Hidden Figures
Love & Friendship
Loving
Florence Foster Jenkins