Predictions Friday: Venice, Telluride and Toronto Shake up the Race

The Telluride Film Festival has ended and now many journalists have headed up to Toronto, as we await news any kind of breakout that might happen there. Already Cannes (Loving), Sundance (Manchester by the Sea, Birth of a Nation), Venice (La La Land, Nocturnal Animals, Jackie) and Telluride (Moonlight, Sully, Arrival, Bleed for This) have given Oscar pundits some direction.

Last year, The Martian was the big Toronto get. It landed with a big wow in Toronto, which helped propel the film to its box-office glory and for a time seemed like it might become the winner. But of course, Ridley Scott did not receive a Best Director nomination and that seemed to thwart the film’s chances. Also, it was thrown into the comedy category at the Globes, which altered perception enough to reduce its gravitas, or so David Poland at Movie City News said.

Two films rose right to the top of the pile out of Telluride: La La Land (right now the likely winner) and Moonlight. Both films are heart-stoppingly brilliant, but more than that, they were the two everyone loved and no one hated. Both should become early favorites to win over critics and eventually industry voters. Since both are original screenplays written by the director, I’m guessing that if the Academy wanted to reward both films they might give screenplay to Moonlight and Picture/Director to La La Land.

Also doing very well but less universally loved would be Arrival (my personal favorite) and Sully (another one I loved). While these films have their fans, they also have detractors. Arrival has been deemed “too confusing” for the Oscar voters, and Sully seems to be missing a little of the snooty film critic factor. Maybe these things matter, maybe they don’t. Arrival is going to be seen and discussed at many a festival, giving it a lot of time to grow a fan base. Sully is opening in theaters today and if it makes bank, that will help it become a stronger contender. As with all things, whatever films open after the festivals could make or break the position for some of these early contenders. We’ve had years where all of the late breakers do really well, and we’ve had years where none of them do.

Awards Circuit‘s Mark Johnson had an interesting observation about Florence Foster Jenkins and how it might slip in as a Best Picture nominee along the lines of Philomena. It’s easy to look for the Big Oscar Movies but this film, directed by Stephen Frears, is steadily earning money at the box office. It is all but guaranteed to be seen by all of the voters by the time they have to choose and could easily show up in places like SAG ensemble, for instance.

It’s important to keep in mind that the factors that reward a nominee for Best Picture are different from the factors that form a winner. In both cases, the preferential ballot is used. But when it comes to the nominees, you are really looking at the top three, maybe top four of a ballot containing only five nominees. Voters will push the one they want to get nominated towards the top of the ballot either because they loved it or because they are somehow obligated through friendship or alliances or employment. The former favors films that inspire passion and love. The latter favors studio films, where the people involved have deep roots in the industry. The former is good for films like Moonlight and Arrival, Hell or High Water, and La La Land. The latter is good for films like Sully and Silence.

The next two months will introduce more players into the mix, some of them we’re predicting already, some might come out of nowhere. Generally speaking, you can’t go wrong by building a contender, as Anne Thompson always says, branch by branch. The roots of that branch are usually the producers and the production company. If Tom Ortenberg has a movie, you pay attention. If Warner Bros. has a movie you pay attention. If Ang Lee is directing a movie you pay attention. If Clint Eastwood has another massive hit at the age of 86 you pay attention. The hierarchy in Hollywood still favors production companies, producers and distributors (and now, the Oscar strategists who push them) more than it does even those who star in the films. The Oscars were invented for the studios and, for the most part, even now, they remain in the hands of the studios.

When I’m looking at a movie I love, the first thing I look at is who is distributing it. That will tell me whether the film is an outsider or an insider, whether they’ll have the money to launch of a big campaign or not. The next thing you look at is director. If the director is new, like Lenny Abrahamson was last year, you look at what he (or she) directed previously — was it well respected? These are some of the things that help me figure out what will go and what might not. In the end, the buzz is much more noticeable than it is right now because you can feel it when a lot of people really like a movie. It’s harder when the movie is being pushed by one or two loud voices.

Okay, starting with what we know, a few people like Kris Tapley and to a certain degree Scott Feinberg haven’t totally written off The Birth of a Nation. We still don’t know where that will land. Is it still a contender, just not a frontrunner? There is time enough for the film to recover from its battering, but remember, any time it makes any kind of progress, there will be people still itching to take it down. Oscar voters tend to shy away from any kind of controversy, large or small. But, who knows. We shall try to keep an open mind.

As of now, what I see as the strongest players in the Oscar race, for all of the major categories, would be the following that I’ve seen:

1. La La Land – A dazzling, unforgettable film. There is just no other way to say it. It also packs quite a heavy dramatic punch at the end, most unexpectedly. It is artistically daring, absurdly romantic and swoony, and as Tom Hanks said about it, it really does seem to single-handedly want to preserve Hollywood while pushing the boundaries of what film can do. The star of the show is Emma Stone, without a doubt. She will be a major force to be reckoned with.

2. Moonlight – Underestimate this film at your own peril. I can’t remember a more stirring scene in any movie than happens at the end of Moonlight, but truly, throughout this film the magic is in the acting, and mostly by means of thoughts left unsaid. It’s such an important and rarely told story. That makes it great. Why it will do well with Academy voters is that its story is universal and believe it or not, non-confrontational. I truly hope it is politically correct enough for those who demand a “purity test” because nothing will break my heart more than if this film gets think-pieced to death.

3. Loving – Though it’s a subtle film that was seen all the way back in Cannes, Loving has stuck with me. Sure, I have to admit to being a Jeff Nichols fan. This and Midnight Special are two fine examples of great filmmaking — that Nichols made them both the same year is astonishing. Loving is not so much a film about an interracial marriage that was then illegal in the south, in my opinion, as it is about the echoes of ignorance and prejudice against LGBT families in 2016. I think Nichols makes that point loudly and clearly.

4. Manchester by the Sea – Some films do well on pure craft alone. Craft, meaning great writing, directing and acting across the board. This is one of those films where you do not feel a dividing line between reality and fiction. Kenneth Lonergan brings you right into his movie to the point where you can almost smell the smoke and beer. Anchored by the two brilliant performances of Casey Affleck and Lucas Hedges, it’s a heartbreaker. But a memorable one. Some have said it’s a tough sell for the Academy and that might be true, especially if they only have five slots on the ballot and they choose to go for films that make them feel better. But if we’re talking about the best in terms of sheer excellence, this one fits the bill.

5. Arrival – There is often some kind of astonishing symbiosis that occurs whenever great filmmakers place women at the center of extraterrestrial adventure. The women are by necessity made into smart and capable badasses. Sigourney Weaver in Alien, Jodie Foster in Contact, Sandra Bullock in Gravity and now, Amy Adams in Arrival. In all of these films, the plot turns on their actions. Arrival is not a straightforward narrative and requires a leap of faith that audiences can grasp its unusual reality, but even if you can’t, don’t let that prevent you from having the experience. This film poses metaphysical questions about life and death as much as it imagines a path for science and the future. Beyond its narrative, Arrival is a branch by branch spectacular spectacle — with potential nominations in art direction, screenplay, visual effects, sound, score and actress categories.

6. Sully – Clint Eastwood is 86 years old and he just made one of his best films. Of all of those mentioned here, Sully is the studio pic — the meat and potatoes that strengthens Hollywood’s backbone. If it makes a lot of money, I suspect voters will want to reward Eastwood for having such a massive success on his hands at his age. Sully has a great central performance with Tom Hanks and is the kind of movie you can sit anyone down in front of and they will mostly get it if not love it and that, my friends, is how you define an Oscar favorite.

7. Hell or High Water – It’s a long shot at the moment but an immense crowdpleaser of the kind we rarely see anymore. Will it get enough buzz to gain traction? It’s hard to say, but all it needs to get nominated is that a lot of people think it’s the best film they saw this year, and I suspect many will.

Those are the ones I’ve seen but I believe there are others that might come along that will be in play. Here they are, along with the reasons why.

1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – Ang Lee rarely makes films that aren’t great on every level. He’s won Best Director twice.
2. Silence – Martin Scorsese at last directing his epic passion project almost guarantees Oscar nominations all around.
3. Fences – Has Scott Rudin’s name attached which is already good enough for me, but there’s also the pedigree and source material – August Wilson’s celebrated play, starring Viola Davis, directed by and starring Denzel Washington and (both won Tonys).
4. The Founder and Lion – Both backed by the Weinstein Co. which is enough to consider them potential nominees.
5. 20th Century Women – Chosen by Kent Jones to play at the New York Film Fest. It is also going to be the one film that focuses on women as opposed to men, or men and their women.

Sooner or later, this will be a lot more clear than it is right now. The pile will shrink and shrink until we’re down to the eight or nine films Academy members loved.

Here is how I see the race playing out at the moment:

Best Picture
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Loving
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Sully
6. Silence
7. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
8. Fences
9. Arrival
10. Hell or High Water
11. 20th Century Women
12. Florence Foster Jenkins
13. Lion
14. Hidden Figures
15. The Founder
16. Hacksaw Ridge
17. Bleed for This
18. The Girl on the Train
19. Denial
20. Nocturnal Animals

Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington, Fences
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving
5. Tom Hanks, Sully
6. Joe Lehy, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
7. Michael Keaton, The Founder
8. Dev Patel, Lion
9. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Viola Davis, Fences
3. Ruth Negga, Loving
4. Amy Adams, Arrival
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
6. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
7. Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train
8. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
9. Rooney Mara, Una
10. Natalie Portman, Jackie
11. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
12. Sally Field, Hello My Name is Doris
13. Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
14. Rebecca Hall, Christine
15. Sally Hawkins, Maudie
16. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
17. Rosamund Pike, A United Kingdom
18. Rachel Weisz, Denial
19. Rooney Mara, Lion
20. Marion Cotillard, Allied

Supporting Actor
1. Ashton Sanders or Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
2. Ben Foster or Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
4. Liam Neeson, Silence
5. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
7. Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash
8. Tracy Letts, Indignation
9. Timothy Spall, Denial
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Supporting Actress
1. Naomi Harris, Moonlight
2. Molly Shannon, Other People
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Halftime Walk or Certain Women
4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
5. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
6. Laura Dern, Certain Women

Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
4. Jeff Nichols, Loving
5. Martin Scorsese, Silence
6. Clint Eastwood, Sully
7. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
8. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
9. Denzel Washington, Fences
10. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
11. Ben Younger, Bleed for This
12. Stephen Frears, Florence Foster Jenkins
13. Kelly Reichardt, Certain Women
14. Mira Nair, Queen of Katwe
15. Garth Davis, Lion

Original Screenplay
1. La La Land, Damien Chazelle
2. Moonlight, Barry Jenkins
3. Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
4. Loving, Jeff Nichols
5. Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
6. Bleed for This, Ben Younger
7. 20th Century Women, Mike Mills
8. Hail, Caesar! Coen brothers
9. Florence Foster Jenkins, Nicholas Martin
10. Hacksaw Ridge, Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan
11. The Founder, Robert D. Siegel

Adapted Screenplay
1. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Jean-Christophe Castelli
2. Silence, Jay Cocks
3. Fences, August Wilson
4. Arrival, Eric Heisserer
5. Sully, Todd Komarnicki
6. Indignation, James Schamus
7. Love & Friendship, Whit Stillman
8. Hidden Figures, Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder
9. Lion, Luke Davies
10. The Girl on the Train, Erin Cressida Wilson

Documentary Feature
OJ Made in America, Ezra Edelman
Life Animated, Roger Ross Williams
The 13, Ava DuVernay
Weiner, Josh Kriegman, Elyse Steinberg
Newtown, Kim A. Snyder
Unlocking the Cage, Chris Hegedus and Donn Alan Pennebaker
Cameraperson, Kirsten Johnson
No Asylum: The Untold Chapter of Anne Frank’s Story, Paula Fouce
Bright Lights, Alexis Bloom, Fisher Stevens
Under the Gun, Stephanie Soechtig
The Other Side, Roberto Minervini
Lo and Behold: Reveries of the Connected World, Werner Herzog
Uncle Howard, Aaron Brookner
Holy Hell, Will Allen

Animated Feature
Kubo and two Strings
The Red Turtle
Finding Dory
Trolls
Zootopia
Moana

That’s all I got for you today, folks. These titles will shift as the season wears on.