Predictions Friday: I’ll Let You Be in My Dreams If I Can Be in Yours

A hush went over the audience on Wednesday night at the Savannah Film Festival, as Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi masterpiece Arrival screened. In all of its unbearable beauty, Arrival captivated the audience. So much so that you could hear it if someone so much as shifted in in their seats. By the end, grown men were wiping away tears at this very moving, exquisite film transfixed them. Even if it might take a while for their brains to catch up to what they just saw, there is no doubt they were responding emotionally to a universal human experience.

The moody dreamscape of Arrival is unlike any other film released this year. Even if it involves familiar sci-fi elements seen in other movies, especially those that connect women to extraterrestrial life, it shines uniquely nonetheless. To say Arrival is one of the best films of the year is an easy call. But for awards purposes we’re really not dealing with best, right? We’re dealing with reading a crowd. We’re dealing with right now. We’re dealing with perception. I did not imagine it when I saw older men wiping away tears, so I know a good number of older men will have no trouble connecting with and understanding Arrival. Some will not, and what a shame if they don’t. Sometimes I imagine what kind of a world, what kind of an Oscar race it might be, if they did.

I was having a conversation with Jeff Sneider on Twitter about this very subject of wishful thinking. Jeff is writing the new Oscar column for Mashable called “The Oscar Map.” He has his hopes set on Peter Berg’s Patriots Day. He also thinks O.J.: Made in America has a shot at Best Picture. I corrected him on the latter. No documentary is getting in with only five slots on the nominations ballot. If they expanded it to ten, maybe. But not with five. But I didn’t correct him, nor mock him, nor try to talk him out of Patriots Day as one of his final choices.

It’s probably a good time to talk about wishful thinking. Longtime readers of this site will remember the early days of struggling between the two opposing forces of Oscar watching: predicting objectively and wishful thinking. Even those who like to pretend that they are being objective really aren’t being objective. They are often trying, either deliberately or passively, to inject a contender they personally admire into the game. Being in either camp too faithfully will always thwart an Oscar observer’s success, both of the race itself and of one’s ability to cover it.

The lesser of two evils turns out to be objectivity, because as Mark Harris always says, when so many people are working to dumb things down from the outset, starting at the beginning of the year with “they’re never go for it,” that burdens a film with limitations and expectations it doesn’t deserve. Limitations because there is nothing more destructive to art than closed minds. Expectations because the idea that a work of art can only be considered good and worthy if Oscar voters can deal with it leads to paralysis in a quest for perfection. The best films, the best love affairs, the best meals, the best experiences are sloppy, all over the place and just somehow work. Oh, the boundless beauty of the film world before the Oscar race became so rigid and paralyzing.

It’s important to keep an open mind and an open heart, so that the impossible might become possible. Of course, there are many things we know for sure that can’t be changed. Voters have only five choices for Best Picture of the year so they’re only going with those they deeply love, mind, body, and soul. If they had ten choices, they would have more freedom to embrace more options in their quest to name the best. They could include an animated movie, maybe a documentary, maybe a genre movie. But as things stand now? Really, it must come down to their favorites.

Still, Jeff responded emotionally to Patriots Day so it’s difficult for him not to imagine Oscar voters feeling the same way. For me, I really can’t imagine them not responding to Arrival, since so many I know who have seen it have loved it.

Here’s a demonstration the studio created to help illustrate what Arrival is kind of about —

Yes, I know that it’s a stretch for a majority male population of film goers, critics, bloggers, and Oscar voters to imagine that only a woman could solve such a complex problem and “save the world.” I know there are many men who are unable or unwilling to put that much faith in a woman’s abilities. Some of those men really believe that women are better when they’re confused, lost, or vulnerable. Sadly, it’s hard for some to see  women as actual people, let alone heroes.

When I watch Arrival now, knowing what’s coming, I start to cry immediately and then never really stop. I understand that much of this is personal. I do get that the feelings that swirl around in my addled brain are unlike the feelings of 4,000 middle-aged men. I get that. But when I see this exceptional, unique film where every shot is a work of art, and for once there is a woman who is capable and brilliant and the true heroine — I just think “Wow!” You can try to make me stop predicting Arrival by saying “they” will never go for it. You can try, but it’s one of those things I will ride out until the bitter end because it’s just that good.

Still, we are also in the game of trying to get it right, trying to aim our spotlight upon the films and contenders we think might have a chance, either because they deserve it or because they have strong advocates supporting them.

So what has gone down thus far?

Moonlight did have a perfect score of 100 on Metacritic but it’s now gone to 99. Still, incredible.
Arrival has 100% at Rotten Tomatoes, with 50 reviews and counting.
Lion won the Audience Award, beating La La Land, at the Middleburg Film Festival.
Mel Gibson talked to Kris Tapley on his podcast, opening the door to a potential Mel Gibson comeback.
Arrival, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea screened at the Savannah Film Fest to enthusiastic reactions.
Molly Shannon and Miles Teller appeared at Savannah Film Fest, showing that they are prepared to go the distance with requisite publicity boost.
Warren Beatty will go lead for Rules Don’t Apply (and it is one of the best performances of the year, so that’s a good decision), and Viola Davis will campaign in Supporting, which might mean she could finally win an Oscar. Wow, right?

So let’s get down to it, shall we?

Best Picture
Frontrunners
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Arrival
Jackie
Silence
Loving
Fences
Sully
Lion

Contenders:
Hacksaw Ridge
Live by Night
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Best Actor
Denzel Washington, Fences
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Tom Hanks, Sully
Joel Edgerton, Loving

Contenders
Robert DeNiro, The Comedian
Chris Pine, Hell or High Water
Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Ben Affleck, Live by Night
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Contenders
Ruth Negga, Loving
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Rooney Mara, Una
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Dev Patel, Lion
Liam Neeson, Silence
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Contenders
Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Molly Shannon, Other People

Contenders
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Contenders:
Denzel Washington, Fences
Jeff Nichols, Lovinge
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Clint Eastwood, Sully
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Original Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Alt. Kelly Reichardt, Certain Women

Adapted Screenplay
August Wilson, Fences
Jay Cocks, Silence
Luke Davies, Lion
Todd Komarnicki, Sully
Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Editing
La La Land
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Moonlight
Silence

Cinematography
La La Land
Arrival
Jackie
Hail Caesar
Rules Don’t Apply

Production Design
La La Land
Jackie
Arrival
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar

Costume Design
Jackie
La La Land
Rules Don’t Apply
Loving

Documentary Feature
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Gleason
Life Animated
Weiner

Animated feature
The Red Turtle
Moana
Sing
Finding Dory
Zootopia

Visual Effects
Arrival
Midnight Special
Hail Caesar
Captain America: Civil War
Rogue One

Makeup AND HAIR
La La Land
Jackie
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar
Indignation