Checking in on Best Picture Predictions Around the Web

Last year around this time we did a quick check-in to see what people were predicting. We compared them and the results are that almost everyone had either five or six of the eventual Best Picture nominees right. There were still two that were not yet in the mix – The Big Short and for some reason, Mad Max:Fury Road. First, this year’s Gurus of Gold.

And last year around this time, here is how we laid it out. It’s worth noting Anne Thompson doesn’t predict films she hasn’t seen. As a result Anne is THE ONLY PUNDIT who had Mad Max correctly predicted. She knew. She did that weird thing she does where she JUST KNOWS. So Mad Max did really well when no one thought it would. Everyone thought Carol and Steve Jobs would be slam dunks. Both Anne and I had six out of the eventual eight. Scott Feinberg appears to have the most here, because he included The Big Short and excluded Carol. It is worth noting that he was dubious about Mad Max’s chances right up through when the nominations were announced.

Last year at this time, Best Picture predictions looked like this – the most anyone got was 6/8 of the eventual nominees, some have 5/8.

And this year it looks like this (please note: Kris Tapley’s choices are not ranked). Thanks to Marshall Flores for compiling these:

So it really doesn’t look like much of a consensus yet. But the top four seem locked by Gold Derby and Gurus of Gold:

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Fences
4. Moonlight
5. Loving

After that, it starts to get a little hazy. Last year, the Gurus had the top six right. Gold Derby had four out of top six right. In total, both groups ultimately had six right. The year before that, I know that Gurus of Gold had seven right on their top ten.

So of the last remaining movies, it’s going to be three or four from the following:

Sully
Jackie
Arrival
Lion
Live by Night
Hidden Figures
Silence
Hell or High Water
20th Century Women
Hacksaw Ridge
Patriots Day

It will be interesting to see if the election pulls any film up or pushes any film down. In one month from now, we will have a much more solid view of how things should play out.