Predictions Friday: The Rules Don’t Apply to Oscar Season

In some ways, the Oscar race has rules that apply and in other ways, it doesn’t. Here are the general rules as I know them, and the exceptions to those rules.

Rule #1 – The Academy has always existed to protect and promote the studios, or the “five families,” as David Fincher calls them. That has meant, over the years, that it has been difficult for independent films to break through. It’s still extremely rare for a new or indie studio to win Best Picture, but I suspect this rule is changing fast out of necessity. There are more eyeballs to be had, more freedom of expression for more quality cinema on VOD and other platforms now than ever before. The studios still invest in and promote “prestige” films but generally they earn the bulk of their profit with movies that Oscar voters would not go near with a 20-foot pole. Ethan Hawke said in 2014 that Boyhood could not win because it wasn’t a studio movie (Fox Searchlight’s Birdman won instead), Spotlight ended up winning the following year with an indie studio, Open Road, backing it.

The films that have won with independent distributors you could count on one hand. Crash is one. The Hurt Locker was one. But usually, the films that win come from a major. Miramax was once considered an independent but did so well with the Oscar race it became not just A major but THE major Oscar-friendly studio. Once the reign of Miramax ended and The Weinstein Co. began, it wasn’t hard to break back into the game. If you think of Best Picture as being down studio vs. independent and what that might mean for the future of the Oscars and the industry, you see that two films in contention for the top prize are independents: La La Land (Lionsgate) and Manchester by the Sea (Roadside).

Then we have:
Fences – Paramount
Sully – Warner Bros.
Silence – Paramount
Arrival – Paramount
Loving – Focus Features
Jackie – Fox Searchlight
Moonlight – A24
20th Century Women – A24
Live by Night – Warner Bros.
Hell or High Water – CBS Films
Lion – The Weinstein Co.
Hacksaw Ridge – Summit
Hidden Figures – Fox
Rules Don’t Apply – Fox
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk – Sony
Gold – The Weinstein Co./Dimension
Passengers – Columbia

At some point, some of these distribs will not even seem like independents because we see them so often in the race, especially A24 and Roadside. Summit won with The Hurt Locker and Lionsgate won with Crash.

Exception to the rule: They will pick the film they like best. It probably helps if it comes from a major studio but it is by no means a requirement.

Rule #2
The Best Picture winner is usually a straight-up drama. This is almost always true, even if it can have comedic elements. Genre movies do not win.

Exceptions: Musicals can sometimes win (Chicago, The Artist). Fantasy has won (Return of the King). A horror film has won (Silence of the Lambs).

Rule #3
Actors rule the Academy, so whatever the movie that wins, it is generally actor-driven and not visual effects-driven. The actors especially hate being replaced by computer generated characters, or animated characters. Their face is their business.

Exception: Not many.

Rule #4
Best Picture winners usually contain a “white guy who…” A white guy who saves the hostages in Iran. A white guy who laments super hero movies. A white guy or white guys who break a story on sexual abuse in the Catholic church.

Exceptions: 12 Years a Slave, Slumdog Millionaire, Chicago.

Rule #5
The stats matter until they don’t. The most important stat is usually Best Director, particularly the DGA. Getting a nomination there means you’re more likely to win Best Picture. Ditto for the Producers Guild.

Last year’s The Revenant had a whopping stat against it, with no SAG ensemble nomination AND no screenplay nomination. Having both at the same time seems to be an impossibility. Having no Ace editing nomination was fine for Spotlight last year but usually it’s important. That’s the thing about stats. They matter until they don’t.

So, with these things in mind, let’s get on with our predictions:

Best Picture
Frontrunners
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. Jackie
6. Silence
7. Loving
8. Fences
9. Sully
10. Lion

Strong Contenders
11. Live by Night
12. 20th Century Women
13. Hacksaw Ridge
14. Hell or High Water
15. Florence Foster Jenkins
16. Miss Sloane

Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington, Fences
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
4. Tom Hanks, Sully
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving

Strong Contenders
6. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
7. Robert DeNiro, The Comedian
8. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
9. Miles Teller, Bleed for This
10. Chris Pine, Hell or High Water
11. Andrew Garfield, Silence

Best Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
4. Amy Adams, Arrival
5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Strong Contenders
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Supporting Actor
1. Dev Patel, Lion
2. Liam Neeson, Silence
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Strong Contenders
6. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
7. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
5. Molly Shannon, Other People

Strong Contenders
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
8. Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane

Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
5. Denzel Washington, Fences

Strong Contenders:
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving
8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
9. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
10. Clint Eastwood, Sully
11. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

Original Screenplay
1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Jeff Nichols, Loving
4. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
5. Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Adapted Screenplay
1. August Wilson, Fences
2. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
3. Patrick Ness, A Monster Calls
4. Jay Cocks, Silence
5. Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Editing
La La Land
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
Silence

Cinematography
La La Land
Arrival
Jackie
Hail Caesar
Silence

Production Design
La La Land
Jackie
Arrival
Rules Don’t Apply
Live by Night

Costume Design
Jackie
La La Land
Rules Don’t Apply
Florence Foster Jenkins
Love & Friendship

Documentary Feature
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Gleason
Life Animated
The Ivory Game

Animated Feature
The Red Turtle
Moana
Sing
Finding Dory
Zootopia

Visual Effects
Arrival
Midnight Special
Hail Caesar
Captain America: Civil War
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Makeup AND HAIR
La La Land
Jackie
Rules Don’t Apply
Hail Caesar
Live by Night