The State of the Race: The Oscars and a Dark Time in American History

I can see people making fun of a post like this, at a time like this. The nation’s first two-term black president will be followed by the first sexual assault/white supremacist president. We’re now about to live through an era where Hollywood is at odds, for the most part, with America’s government. When I started my website in 1999, Bill Clinton was leaving office and Al Gore was trying to get elected. Like Hillary Clinton, he won the popular vote. The 3rd party protest voters then, like now, played a decisive role in tipping the election. But no candidate in history, no person in history has ever been attacked the way Hillary Clinton was, with the Bernie Sanders movement first, then the GOP, then the FBI, then Wikileaks. The white male power center in this country did not want her elected. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell sacrificed their dignity with all-out obstruction to put a conservative on the Supreme Court, a move that will have dire consequences for generations to come. Abortion rights, voting rights, labor and environmental protections will be fair game under a conservative Supreme Court. Trump is a climate denier who will immediately cancel our involvement in the Paris climate agreement and lift all regulations on drilling and coal manufacturing so global warming, American style, is full speed ahead. LGBT marriage rights are now in jeopardy, as are their civil rights overall. Mexican-Americans are going to be abused, discriminated against, and deported. And Muslim Americans, we can only imagine their fate. Open carry weapons will be the norm. Women’s rights just went swirling down the drain.

And worst of all, all three branches of our government are now in the hands of the Republicans. It is a dream scenario for them and a nightmare for us. They unified in their opposition to the first black president, held out for eight years with shameless obstructionism, and they have now reaped the electoral benefits by successfully hoodwinking a large segment of voters into believing that they can repair our dysfunctional government in Washington despite being the sole cause of it. They rode into office upon a wave of hatred for the political status quo and a fear of demographic otherness. The GOP can now do what they want and everyone should be very afraid about what is about to happen to this country. I feel sick to my stomach at the thought of Trump giving a State of the Union address.

How will this affect Best Picture, some have asked me. “No way La La Land wins,” someone said, suggesting that a dark and depressing America might lead to a dark and depressing Oscars. Well, yes and no. Remember what won Best Picture in 1968? Oliver. And this year is SO like 1968. From the stupid Democrats busting up the convention and weakening the party, to the unrest in the black community, to an unpopular, very terrifying president-elect. So why wouldn’t a musical win now? It seems as though it’s the perfect escapist confection for people who are in pain and awash in fear.

If Oliver! won the year Richard Nixon was elected, you might say that when he was re-elected, it looks like The Godfather would have been the winner. The following year, The Sting won. Nixon’s presidency, and whatever forces drove American culture, led to what remains the best decade of American film and the best decade of Oscar history by a long way. In terms of art, it seems that dark forces and bad presidents often lead to the best art, if you want to try to find an upside. But whatever forces are in motion now, there is no reason to think that La La Land can’t win.

What other films might win if voters were upset by the outcome of the election? Well, there are a few that might fit the bill, like Moonlight, which focuses on coming out, or Manchester by the Sea, which focuses on grief and the plight of the male protagonist. And then there is also Fences. If I had to make an argument for any film to have more resonance right now, it would be Fences, which I feel hits harder emotionally than any other film I’ve seen this year. It is about anger, division, and ultimately unlikely unity. If I had to pick one alternative to La La Land as it relates to the election, it would be Fences.

I wish I had something more positive to say about what happened last night. I wish I could say I didn’t see it coming. Unfortunately I had felt all year like the universe wanted Trump – and I’m not even a spiritual person. It just felt like it was an unstoppable force. I tried every day to make it not happen but it happened. If you predict the Oscars long enough you begin to recognize that familiar feeling of dread when a winner can’t be stopped.

I do feel relieved that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, which does reflect where the national polls were. Trump becomes only the fifth president in American history to win without it. All of those presidents, except for George W. Bush, only served one term. So now, those who are not Republicans need to help make sure Trump serves one term and one term only. But I suspect we are in for a long run of Republican rule. I hope not. I hope not.

Best Picture predictions:
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Fences
Moonlight
Arrival
Loving
Sully
Lion
Silence
Hell or High Water or Jackie or 20th Century Women