Ace Eddie Preview

The Editors Guild will announce their nominations as the first of many of the big guild announcements on January 3. Followed by  the  WGA (Jan 4), PGA (Jan 10), DGA (Jan 12).

The Editors have traditionally aligned tightly with Best Picture, both with the ACE nominations and with the Oscar nomination for Best Editing. Last year was among the most rare in that the ultimate Best Picture winner did not get an ACE nomination. West Side Story, Midnight Cowboy, Kramer vs. Kramer, Chariots of Fire, Driving Miss Daisy and Terms of Endearment are two that also didn’t and won Best Picture but it is not the norm. In those cases, and with Spotlight, these films earned an editing nomination from the Academy. So if you ever see a lack of an Ace nod, look for whether or not the Academy’s editors branch nominates the film for editing – that might tell you whether or not it’s headed for a Best Picture win.

These are the films that won Best Picture without either an ACE or an Oscar nomination for editing:

Tom Jones 
A Man for All Seasons 
The Godfather Part II
Annie Hall
Ordinary People

Still, because of last year it will be harder to make a hard and fast argument that a lack of an ACE nod matters.  Some people prefer to disregard the stats completely and just go on instinct. A good predictor knows when that you can’t rely on any one thing 100% but that most of the time your gut turns out to be right. Still, stats, like polls, can offer SOME guidance. There is no doubt that heading into the Best Picture race it’s better to have both the SAG and the ACE in your pocket. Is it everything? Of course not. You can find almost any stat to prove what you want to believe. But it’s not nothing either.

Can La La Land do the same thing Spotlight did and overcome the lack of love from the actors and win with a preferential ballot? Of course it can. All that matters is where its placed on most ballots. It has to be in the top 3, preferably in the top 2, on most. All the SAG snafu tells us is that it’s not an an easy runaway sweeps year. It’s a competitive year, with three films vying for the top prize, at least right now. The SAG bumped La La Land to third from first, just like the ACE bumped Spotlight to third from first. It still won Best Picture.

This year, at least so far, it looks like we’re not going to see a lot of tech heavy or crafts heavy films nominated. Arrival and Sully are about the only two options in that regard.  The films that seem crafts heavy this year are aimed at kids or teens, like Fantastic Beasts or A Monster Calls or Rogue One. They might land here or there but they won’t dominate the top five categories. The films that seem to be strong on crafts that are in the Best Picture race this year  would be: La La Land, Arrival, and Jackie, with Hail, Caesar and Live by Night  potentially represented in the crafts.

As far as editing goes, I’ll go ahead and name the films I think will get in, but of course who knows how things will roll out.

For Drama

1. Hell or High Water
2. Arrival
3. Silence
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Moonlight

Also possible: Hacksaw Ridge, Jackie, Sully, Nocturnal Animals, Fences, Hidden Figures, Captain Fantastic

For comedy/musical:

1. La La Land
2. Sing Street
3. 20th Century Women
4. Deadpool
5. Florence Foster Jenkins

Musical/Comedy is harder  than drama, obviously. Who knows what movies will land there.  Either way, La La Land should have no trouble here winning the ACE in its category. I am not sure what will win drama but it’s more important to have a nomination than to have a winner. Since it’s the second big guild after SAG, we’ll have a bigger piece of the puzzle.

The Ace Eddies
Won Ace | Won Oscar

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

Comprehensive Chart:

Won ACE | Won Oscar *Nominated for Best Picture

+Won Best Picture

-Won ACE/Oscar for editing but not nominated
for Best Pic

Check out the seven year
streak from 1990 on.