Predictions Friday: Still No Clear Consensus but We’re Getting There

When the awards race is working at its best, pundits don’t control or steer the narrative, but rather follow it. Just because we all thought a consensus was at play doesn’t mean our assumptions will match the reality. We have become an enclosed group in which we listen to each other rather than to other people. The so-called leaders in the pundit field are sometimes those who got it right once but who might not get it right again for years. No one is ever going to be 100% because humans, though mostly predictable, do respond to what’s happening around them. There is no doubt the shattering results of the election have shifted things significantly. We thought it might.

We still don’t know how some mysteries will play out that weren’t really solved by the Screen Actors Guild nominations, because they take a random sampling of 2000 members who could be plucked from anywhere — 150,000 SAG and AFTRA voters make for an unpredictable group. They first instituted the nominating committee to avoid being predictable, to distinguish them from the awards industry as a whole, but now since the merge with AFTRA they might need to do some tweaking. Or not. Perhaps it’s just that they are content to a different thing to be considered totally apart from the fray. If that’s to be the case, and they don’t intend to reflect or influence the Oscar race, that’s fine. It will diminish their importance as Oscar bellwethers, and we’ll need to get used to that. There’s a good argument to be made that the more separate and individualistic a group seeks to be,  the more prestige and distinction it may hold.

So what are the unknowns as of now?

1) Best Actress is still a big unknown. We used to have three locks but now we have only two locks — Emma Stone and Natalie Portman. Beyond that, there are three slots open and about six significant names competing for those three slots. Probably Amy Adams is the third, probably Meryl Streep is the fourth, probably Annette Bening is the fifth. If Isabelle Huppert is going to get in, which she might, she will likely bump one of those last three mentioned. The win still seems down to Portman and Stone and it does feel like a cliffhanger at this point.

2) How are the newly independent films crashing the race going to fare. We’re looking at CBS Films, A24, Amazon Studios, Lionsgate all dominating the Oscar race. The industry and Academy I know generally do not favor recognizing that many independents in a given year. And yet, here we are. The one major studio competing now is Paramount, with potentially three entries into the race — Fences, Arrival, Silence and Florence Foster Jenkins. Warner Brothers is still in play with Sully and Tom Hanks, who might still get nominated for Best Actor. Fox Searchlight has Jackie, Fox has Hidden Figures, Focus has Loving, The Weinstein Co is in play with Lion. But if Manchester by the Sea wins the Oscar for Best Picture it will completely and utterly transform the film industry overnight. You heard it here first. The one thing preventing me from choosing it for the Best Picture win is, in fact, that one stat. Just like Netflix did last year with Beasts of No Nation, and CBS Films did with Inside Llewyn Davis, the Amazon logo is loud and proud on all of the Manchester materials, which means the voters can’t pretend they didn’t know what they are picking as the winner. That could mean a door just got kicked down. It could be one that leads to the future. It could be a kicked-down door that some aren’t yet ready to enter. I do not know. But what I do know about the Academy is that they favor studios they know, even if Spotlight won last year. Lionsgate won with Crash and The Hurt Locker won for Summit but that is mostly it. You have to start somewhere. Was a time when Miramax was an outsider and then they completely changed the Oscar game. Improvise, adapt, overcome to the changing landscape of media.

3) The Best Actor race has thrown a curve ball with Viggo Mortensen now named twice — by both the Golden Globes and the SAG for his work in Captain Fantastic. As much as the movie bugged me, there is simply no denying how good he is in in it, up to and including full frontal nudity. He’s so good, he very nearly redeems the film’s weaknesses. How does this shift our perceptions of the category? Hard to say right now but predicting him is probably a good bet. If Captain Fantastic shows up anywhere else, like the Producers Guild or the Writers Guild, it’s probably a done deal. And remember, the election might have shifted things in its favor as it is anti-establishment, so-called, and a Bernie Sanders’ supporter’s fantasy. So perhaps it will resonate now more than ever. Not with people like me who grew up in Topanga in the 1970s and who knows as a single mother that all too often there is someone paying the bills on that trip-the-light-fantastic lifestyle. But it may strike a chord with those who are still clinging to the socialist/hippie/white privilege utopia offered up in the film (children are reading and not watching TV, see how much better we are than you?). But even still, Mortensen is sympathetic in the film and ultimately gives a moving performance, one of his best I dare say. He will be competing with, perhaps, Tom Hanks who is also great in Sully and Joel Edgerton who turns in yet another brilliant brilliant performance. The win is down to Casey Affleck vs. Denzel Washington vs. wild card Andrew Garfield.

4) Best Director is another tricky one. Will the Academy split yet again and go with Barry Jenkins for Moonlight, thus becoming the first ever African American man to win Best Director in 89 years of Oscar history? Then does Moonlight also win Best Picture, or does Manchester by the Sea win there? Another cliffhanger. Other directors in play right now besides Jenkins and Lonergan (both who will likely win in the writing categories) could be Denzel Washington who absolutely deserves a nod finally, or Denis Villeneuve who has been turning in consistently brilliant work that just gets better as he goes along, the Mighty Marty who took a road less traveled with Silence, and of course Damien Chazelle who is not out of the running yet and whose La La Land could also surprise in Best Picture. Mel Gibson who is greeting the season with humility for Hacksaw Ridge, grateful for each and every nomination he earns, no matter how big or small. Jeff Nichols who directed the understated but nonetheless brilliant and memorable Loving. And finally, the new kid on the block, the wildly talented David MacKenzie whose Hell or High Water is flawless in its execution.

5) With Elle now shut out of the Best Foreign Language category, that gives a clear shot for the season’s frontrunner Toni Erdmann. It would never happen but just for shits and giggles, wouldn’t it be funny if Maren Ade got a Best Director nod for the film? Sure, it seems unlikely as it’s mostly a dude’s game, that category, but way back in the 1970s Lina Wertmuller was nominated for Seven Beauties. It’s not totally outside the realm of possibility. I’m going to go ahead and put her on the tracker anyway.

6) One thing La La Land suddenly has in its favor is that it will be now be considered not the frontrunner but the underdog. This is the place it needed to be at the start of the race though it might be too late. On the other hand, it might not. Roll of the dice at this point, and anyone who pretends to know how this is going to go is out of their minds. With the preferential ballot it’s a tricky thing, as we saw last year. What we know is that divisive films can’t win. Remember how I was right about that last year and no one else was? Take it to the bank: the way it’s designed, a film that is hated can’t win. The only hatred La La Land has earned has been because it was the presumed frontrunner. But a film’s divisiveness has little impact on whether a film is nominated or not. It really has to just be passionately loved by enough people to get in, that’s around 150 saying it’s their #1 (sometimes they do it because they are loyal to a studio or to a friend, sometimes because they’re part of the movie, sometimes because they genuinely love it).

Let’s look at the rundown right now in terms of money so far and negative reviews. Here, I have them ordered by average rating but it’s important to note that the more reviews a film has, the better we can gauge the validity of the stat. So the ones with more than 100 are in bold.

1. Moonlight – Average Rating: 8.9/10 / Reviews Counted: 182 / Fresh: 179 / Rotten: 3
2. Manchester by the Sea – Average Rating: 8.9/10 /Reviews Counted: 159 / Fresh: 154 / Rotten: 5
3. La La Land – Average Rating: 8.7/10 / Reviews Counted: 170 / Fresh: 160 / Rotten: 10
4. Hell or High Water – Average Rating: 8.5/10 / Reviews Counted: 207 / Fresh: 203 / Rotten: 4
5. Arrival – Average Rating: 8.4/10 / Reviews Counted: 278 /Fresh: 260 / Rotten: 18
6. Silence – Average Rating: 8.4/10 / Reviews Counted: 25 / Fresh: 24 / Rotten: 1
7. 20th Century Women – Average Rating: 8.2/10 / Reviews Counted: 22 / Fresh: 20 / Rotten: 2
8. Jackie – Average Rating: 8/10 / Reviews Counted: 143 /Fresh: 125 / Rotten: 18
9. Patriots Day – Average Rating: 7.9/10 / Reviews Counted: 15 / Fresh: 14 / Rotten: 1
10. Loving – Average Rating: 7.6/10 / Reviews Counted: 169 /Fresh: 151 / Rotten: 18
11. Hidden Figures – Average Rating: 7.6/10 / Reviews Counted: 21 / Fresh: 20/ Rotten: 1
12. Fences – Average Rating: 7.5/10 / Reviews Counted: 31 / Fresh: 28 / Rotten: 3
13. Sully – Average Rating: 7.2/10 / Reviews Counted: 265 / Fresh: 227 / Rotten: 38
14. Hacksaw Ridge – Average Rating: 7.2/10 / Reviews Counted: 174 / Fresh: 151 / Rotten: 23
15. Lion – Average Rating: 7.2/10 / Reviews Counted: 75 /Fresh: 62 / Rotten: 13
16. Florence Foster Jenkins  – Average Rating: 7/10 / Reviews Counted: 179 / Fresh: 155 / Rotten: 24
17. Captain Fantastic – Average Rating: 7.1/10 / Reviews Counted: 170 / Fresh: 140/Rotten: 30

Box office is annther interesting way to look at a movie’s success.

In limited release, this is how it’s looking for the frontrunners:
La La Land – in 200 theaters, $1.1 million – and counting
Manchester by the Sea – in 1,208 theaters, $9.4 million – and counting
Loving – in 572 theaters, 6.8 million – and counting
Captain Fantastic – in 550 theaters, 5.8 million – and counting

Moonlight in 650 theaters, are all doing gangbuster numbers in early release but it is too soon to be able to start listing those box office takes. Of the movies in wide release, this is how it shakes down.

1. Sully – $124 million
2. Arrival  – $83 million
3. Hacksaw Ridge – $61 million
4. The Girl on the Train – $75 million
5. Florence Foster Jenkins – $27 million
6. Hell or High Water – $27 million

Which movies are going to do well when they do open wide? Probably:

Hidden Figures
La La Land
Patriots Day
Lion
Fences

Whichever movie gets a big hit it will need to really already be in place to use that momentum towards a win — but it will matter a lot how these movies open. It will likely tip the odds for or against them, even amid an awards industry that has long since forgotten who it makes movies for, they do notice the money .

And with that, let’s get on to our weekly predictions.

Best Picture
Moonlight or La La Land or Manchester by the Sea
Fences
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
Sully
Loving
Silence
Alt. Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea or Denzel Washington, Fences 
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully or Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic or Joel Edgerton, Loving

Best Actress
Natalie Portman, Jackie  or Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women  or Isabelle Huppert  or Ruth Negga, Loving

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Dev Patel, Lion
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures  or Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Best Director 
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight or Damien Chazelle, La La Land or Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Alt. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival, Denzel Washington, Fences, Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge or

Original Screenplay
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthimis Filippou, The Lobster
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Adapted Screenplay
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Eric Heisserer, Arrival
Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Jay Cocks, Silence
August Wilson, Fences

Editing
La La Land
Arrival
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Hell or High Water

Cinematography
La La Land
Silence
Arrival
Moonlight
Hail, Caesar

Production Design
La La Land
Silence
Arrival
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Sound Mixing
La La Land
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Patriots Day

Sound Editing
La La Land
Patriots Day
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Hell or High Water

Costume Design
La La Land
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts
Love & Friendship
Hail Caesar

Original Score
La La Land
Patriots Day
Hell or High Water
Jackie
Moonlight

Foreign Language Feature
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman
Tanna
The King’s Choice
Paradise

Documentary Feature
O.J.: Made in America
13th
The Ivory Game
Gleason
Cameraperson
Tower

Animated feature
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Sing
Finding Dory

Visual Effects
Jungle Book
Arrival
A Monster Calls
Fantastic Beasts
Doctor Strange

Makeup and Hair
La La Land
Hail Caesar
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them