Predictions Friday: The Golden Globes Are Coming – How Might They Shift the Race?

On Monday, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will announce their nominees for best of the year. It’s funny that they used to be seen as kind of early, but this year they don’t feel that way at all. Oscar ballots are due on the 13th of January. That means there is just one month to get all of this solidified.

How can the Globes dramatically shift things? They can give a film or a performer a major boost. If Lion does very well there, as I expect it will, with Picture, maybe Director, and an acting nod or two, that helps it significantly. It’s being predicted across the board but there is no doubt a major citation like that would help. It can also solidify Arrival, which is looking good and remains one of the only seven films to hit all of the groups so far that name ten best of the year: National Board of Review, Critics Choice, and the AFI. It could also give a really really big boost to Hacksaw Ridge. Mel Gibson won the Golden Globe for Best Director just before Gibson and Braveheart went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture and Director 20 years ago. It could push Silence officially into the race if it gets Picture and Director. Andrew Garfield is still in limbo between the two of them, and could go either way.

If something or someone is left out of the Globes noms, does it matter? Well, yes and no. It’s always good to get a screenplay nod from them. For some reason, that category matters. Director is probably a good thing. Screenplay and Director is a very good thing. Since the acting and picture categories are separated into drama and musical/comedy, the nominations won’t clarify the very competitive races of Best Actress and Actor.

First, I’ll lay out how I think the nominations might go. Then I’ll run through this week’s Oscar predictions.

Only twice since 2009 have the nominees for Best Picture – Drama not gone on to get a Best Picture nomination. For this category, they do not step outside the boundaries of the Oscar race, judging by their history. Rush and The Ides of March both got in. Clooney is popular with the HFPA so that makes sense.

Second, Screenplay tends to hug Best Picture – Drama, unless there is a star writer in the race, like Aaron Sorkin.

Third, Original Score is hit and miss with Best Picture, with three matching and two wild or three wild cards.

Best Picture – Drama
Silence
Arrival
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. Lion

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Alt. Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
La La Land
20th Century Women
Florence Foster Jenkins
Love & Friendship
Other People
Alt. Rules Don’t Apply

Best Actress – Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Best Actor – Drama
Denzel Washington, Fences
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Joel Edgerton, Loving

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Emma Stone, La La Land
Annette Bening, 20th Century women
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Sally Field, Hello My Name is Doris

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Michael Keaton, The Founder
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Adam Driver, Paterson
Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Molly Shannon, Other People

Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Lion
Moonlight

Score
La La Land
Arrival
Jackie
Patriots Day
Silence

Animation
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Finding Dory
The Red Turtle