Tonight’s Critics Choice Awards Poised to Position Frontrunners in the Oscar Race

This is the first year that the Critics Choice will be first out of the gate in terms of semi-high profile televised awards. This is presumably better for them in terms of ratings, removes a lot of the awards fatigue that begins to settle in later. It’s quite possible that tonight’s Critics Choice award winners will be positioned to become the frontrunners. It’s also possible that they won’t be, that they represent just one group’s thinking, rather than speaking for the general consensus as they’ve done in years prior.

The Critics Choice have already announced their nominees and tonight we’ll hear whom they believe should win in any of the categories. I assume from how they’ve voted in the past that they’ll mostly go consensus. The thing is, there really isn’t a consensus yet. The only one that seems likely is La La Land for Best Picture. But many of the categories feel wide open. So, either they will redirect the race in a different direction or they will go the way we think they’re going to go.

The contest has been going for a while now and the consensus among you readers seems to be, and I largely agree with these predictions – though I did think that it would be possible if he acting winners were 3/4 black actors – Denzel Washington, Mahershala Ali and Viola Davis. But this group, I suspect, will go for Casey Affleck.

Picture: La La Land
Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (I think that’s probably right – if there is a shift in the race it will take place later)
Actress: Emma Stone, La La Land (the first time she takes the stage to accept an awards she will charm the room)
Director: Chazelle vs. Jenkins
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Adapted Screenplay: Arrival vs. Fences
Original Screenplay: Manchester vs. Moonlight
Cinematography: La La Land
Editing: La La Land
Costumes: Jackie vs. La La Land
Animated: Zootopia

The tech categories probably don’t make a difference one way or the toehr

The thing is, they won’t really be helpful in predicting the Oscars so much as they will potentially influence the Oscars. A lot of these early wins are tests to see how people respond to winners. If they become the frontrunner they will be immediately attacked or adored. There is never a middle ground for winners. Thus, a win here could set a chain of reactions that could either bolster and create a frontrunner or destroy one.

Take, for instance, The Big Short winning the Producers Guild last year. It didn’t sit right with voters because they weren’t “good guys.” Spotlight positioned itself to be the “good guy” movie and that helped it win much needed “urgency to vote for” which it did not previously have. And lest we forget how watching Jim Cameron beat Kathryn Bigelow made people feel when Avatar won the Golden Globe.

So I’ll be watching this show tonight to see how the wins play. Good, bad, ugly? Can a speech make all the difference? Sure it can. People have to like watching some people win.