Predictions Friday: Oscar’s Three Alternative Endings

Well, Oscarwatchers, today is the last day for Oscar voters to vote. Most will have likely done so early in the tiny window afforded for such things. That begs the question, why is the window so short? Why does it only go from the 6th until the 13th, especially when voters don’t get around to seeing some of the deepest movies over the holidays for fear of sending their guests into a depression spiral. Once the new year comes around and a horrifying election rocks them to their core, they might spend a little more time on the movies put in front of them. Then again, maybe they never will. Maybe they stare at the screener pile and think: depressing, depressing, too gay, too black, depressing, not fun, no naked ladies, depressing, not feeling good about that one or that one or that one, where are all the movie stars? Maybe they just reach for the films they know won’t waste their time because either so and so is in it or it got good reviews or it won awards already.

The Oscar race feels all but sewn up in some ways. In other ways, not so much. In the spirit of La La Land’s alternative outcome scenarios, here are three.  You can decide which one you think will be our Oscar story for 2016:

1. La La Land is unstoppable. It’s beloved across the board, vibrant, fresh, heartbreaking. Anchored by a brilliant Emma Stone and a love letter to cinema, Los Angeles, and jazz, there is nothing like La La Land. Nothing even comes close, actually, because La La Land is for the dreamers and is really about dreaming, alternate realities and what-ifs. What if I’d stayed there? What if I’d married him instead? What if I’d never let her go? Indeed, that is really what Los Angeles is: a city of dreamers who live alongside an industry that pumps fantasy into the public sphere, offering them something to escape from. It is also a place people dream of becoming stars. Sometimes those dreams come true, sometimes they don’t. Either way, we have a repeat of Chicago (“Academy members were dancing in the aisles as the credits rolled”) or The Artist (Uggie!) wherein one film, a musical or a take on a musical, stole the hearts of voters and that was that. In Scenario 1, La La Land has no equal. It is on is way to becoming a cultural phenomenon and could be the first film since Million Dollar Baby to win Best Picture with either a Best Actress contender or winner. Over a decade. This homage to Jacques Demy and jazz is a perfect way for the half-Frenchman Chazelle to express himself as an artist and one of the most promising new directors of his time. It is the movie of 2016 and it has no equal. As Kris Tapley predicted long ago, it will win more Oscars than any Best Picture winner under the preferential ballot ever has. It will come into the night with the most votes and won’t even trigger a recount. Boom. Done. Gone with the Wind holds the record with eight competitive Oscars won. Under the current era 2009-2016, the record is held by The Hurt Locker with its six trophies. The others:

   The King’s Speech – 4
   The Artist – 5
   Argo – 3
   12 Years a Slave – 3
   Birdman – 4
   Spotlight – 2

   La La Land just has to beat The Hurt Locker with six and it just beat a Golden Globe record to win seven — more than any film in their history. It will go on to win the PGA, the DGA …can’t win SAG, but the ACE and from there into the Oscar race where it slides into home winning Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Song. That’s eight, tying it with Gone with Wind for competitive Oscars.

2. You know what? Life isn’t like it is in musicals. Life is torture. Despite our best efforts, it’s all gone to miserable shit. Look at who we just elected President. A crybaby-in-chief, pathological liar who just gave the key to the treasure chest to the pirates who want to steal from the American people that which they deserve — healthcare, women’s rights, gay rights — it’s all done. We have lost everything. Why should I care about singing and dancing and dreaming? I know what a tragedy life really is. All a person has to do is stop dreaming and face reality. The guild champ right now is Manchester by the Sea, which has more nominations than any other film, including four SAG nominations –Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor. With a deeply moving central performance by Casey Affleck, Manchester speaks to those of us who feel tortured and helpless about the world crumbling. Despite that, Manchester is actually funny in parts — telling the story of people who are just doing the best they can under the circumstances. Nothing or no one is perfect. Life lets you down. People let you down, but the tiny strands of obligation and love pull us through. THAT is the movie of 2016 and it has no equal. Like many of the films that have won in recent history, Manchester won’t be a big winner, it might end the night with just Picture, Actor, Screenplay. Maybe Chazelle or Barry Jenkins takes director. But the wealth is spread around because La La Land is a number one movie and not a number two or three movie. Though it comes in at number one, it doesn’t quite have majority support and a recount is triggered. This is where Manchester by the Sea triumphs as the movie many love and if it’s not their number one they still love it enough to push it up ballot. People who like Hidden Figures like Manchester. People who like Moonlight like Manchester. People who like Lion and Hacksaw Ridge also like Manchester. Does it fit as second and third as easily as it does one?
3. La La Land and Manchester by the Sea are both great movies, but why does it feel like the stakes are so low? Our problems are so much bigger than what happens in our personal lives. People are suffering all over the world and in our own country with ongoing oppression and discrimination. This election has brought to light all of that and suddenly I find my heart is elsewhere. Barry Jenkins would become the first African American director to win in 89 years of Oscar history. That’s almost a century of waiting. Denzel Washington would become the first African American to win three Oscars. Hidden Figures will be the first film contending for Best Picture about African American scientists who were female, hidden from view, but who helped put men on the moon. Lion is about the millions of Indian children who live in poverty or find themselves adopted and must reconcile their new life with their cultural heritage. Despite it being “too black and too gay,” Moonlight is just the best film of 2016 and it’s winning because it’s great, not because voters feel obligated. Jenkins is the most promising director of the new generation. With a SAG Ensemble, an ACE, a PGA and a DGA, on top of that, a Globe win, Moonlight seems unbeatable. It is an underdog which means even those who pick another movie for number one will likely push Moonlight to the top of their ballot because they love it and want to fight for it but more than that, like Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea, they are rooting for the character. They want to give their vote because it feels good to do that. Moonlight would not be a big winner but if it won Best Picture and Best Director it would make Academy history. Maybe it wins three, along with Screenplay. La La Land takes the most Oscars of the night, like Life of Pi and Gravity did (maybe even director) but Moonlight is the film that triumphs on a preferential ballot.

As far as I can tell, these are the three most likely scenarios at play. Can Lion take its momentum into the final act?  Well, considering most are predicting La La Land to take it without a SAG Ensemble nomination, that opens the game up quite a bit. Now you really only need a DGA nod to qualify for a potential Best Picture win.

If I were betting on this year’s race right now, I’d start with La La Land and work my way backwards. There is a good chance, probably the most likely scenario in fact, that it will just take the season and that is that. As I once told David Carr at the beginning of 2008 about Slumdog Millionaire, “now it’s just gonna start winning stuff.” Of course the award to watch is the PGA – if Moonlight wins that or Manchester wins it, then we know we are in for a competitive race. If La La Land wins it, the race is likely decided.

The reason that it’s harder to win big with the preferential ballot is partly because Oscar voters by nature like to spread the wealth among Best Picture nominees. With more Best Picture nominees, so does the wealth get spread. With fewer, like five, sweeps are much more common.

The Open Races:
Best Actress – Emma Stone feels like the frontrunner but really, it’s anyone’s game at this point.
Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali is probably the winner, but it’s also anyone’s game – I’d watch Dev Patel or Aaron Taylor-Johnson I suppose.
Best Director – a tight race between Damien Chazelle, the frontrunner and Barry Jenkins, the underdog.
Cinematography – likely La La Land’s to lose but Moonlight could sneak in, so could Silence.
Editing – likely La La Land’s to lose but also could be a surprise winner like Arrival or Hell or High Water
Costumes – no clear frontrunner.
Production Design – probably La La Land’s to lose but potentially another film could.
Adapted Screenplay – probably this is Moonlight’s to lose. But in a split race Hidden Figures could sneak in there or Arrival.
Visual Effects – Jungle Book vs. Rogue One vs. Arrival perhaps?

The Locked Races:
Best Actor – Casey Affleck feels like the frontrunner and after BAFTA I probably wouldn’t bet against him.
Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis for Fences seems to have it locked up.
Sound – La La Land’s to lose most likely
Animated Feature – seems like Zootopia has it but Kubo is still a threat.
Foreign Language – Toni Erdmann has the edge but the category is notorious for an upset.
Doc Feature – O.J.: Made in America has it locked.
Original Screenplay – probably Manchester has this locked up.

And with that, onward to current predictions — though it feels a little shaky in some categories to lay these down:

Best Picture
La La Land
Moonlight
Manchester by the Sea
Lion
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Silence

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Denzel Washington, Fences
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Alt: Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Best Actress
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Amy Adams, Arrival
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train
Alt: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Dev Patel, Lion
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Alt–Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Alt: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Garth Davis, Lion
Alt: Martin Scorsese, Silence

Original Screenplay
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthimis Filippou, The Lobster
Paul Lavery, I Daniel Blake

Adapted Screenplay
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Eric Heisserer, Arrival
August Wilson, Fences
Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Luke Davies, Lion

Editing
La La Land
Arrival
Moonlight
Hell or High Water
Hacksaw Ridge
Alt: Manchester by the Sea

Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
Hail Caesar
Alt: Lion or Nocturnal Animals

Production Design
Arrival
La La Land
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail Caesar
Nocturnal Animals
Alt: Silence

Sound Mixing
La La Land
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Patriots Day
Rogue One

Sound Editing
Arrival
La La Land
Patriots Day
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One

Costume Design
Jackie
La La Land
Fantastic Beasts
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail Caesar

Original Score
La La Land
Jackie
Moonlight
Lion
Alt:  Hidden Figures

Foreign Language Feature
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Paradise (Russia)
A Man Called ove (Sweden)

Documentary Feature
OJ: Made in America
13th
Weiner
The Ivory Game
Gleason
Alt. I’m not Your Negro

Animated feature
Zootopia
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Sing
Finding Dory

Visual Effects
Jungle Book
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts
Rogue One
Doctor Strange

Makeup and Hair
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!
A Man Called Ove
The Dressmaker
Deadpool