SAG Awards Tonight – The One Major Award La La Land Can’t Win

Tonight’s SAG awards will imagine an Oscar race without its frontrunner. This historically more diverse group overall did not pick La La Land for its ensemble prize, a stat that is now going to be rendered powerless after this year. While people say it’s a “two hander,” and generally that’s the PR strategy to overcome it and it’s worked, that has never stopped them before. If the Academy can give La La Land Sound Editing and Costumes out of pure love, surely the SAG could give the film an ensemble nod out of pure love. But they didn’t and it doesn’t make a difference for the film in the least bit. It won the PGA last night, will win the DGA next week and if it wins the WGA over Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight (all three are in original for WGA, not for Oscar) and then sweeps the BAFTAs no one will think about that SAG stat except to ridicule me every so often on social media for thinking it mattered.

Tonight, though, there are five films up for a major prize that aren’t La La Land. Given SAG’s history, the only ones that can win are those nominated for Best Picture. That leaves out Captain Fantastic. That leaves in three films with black characters at their center and one film that has the most nominations.

Given what I know about consensus voting, the three “black films” could diffuse any one’s power. That means Manchester by the Sea could actually win. Fences has probably the most accomplished and impressive acting of the year and if the SAG voters want to award to Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington, giving Fences their top prize is a way to do that. Fences and Moonlight are already winning in the supporting categories so the only film that might go unrewarded is Hidden Figures – which could also win the ensemble prize.

Either way, none will likely impact the Oscar votes for Best Picture. La La Land is a freight train. I’ll wait to see how things shake out tonight before closing the analysis for this year, which is coming to an end, but I will say that it took a village to make this year happen. It will likely never happen again that two films by African American filmmakers are in the race. Why? Because Oscar voters and critics and bloggers only really open their perceptions when forced. They were forced because of a hashtag and boycott. 12 Years a Slave’s Best Picture win will carry them over for at least ten more years until another film with black characters actually wins. Maybe I will turn out to be wrong but this year did represent a rare opportunity, a last gasp of Obama’s influence on American life.

Predictions–
Actor-Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Actress-Emma Stone, La La Land
Supporting Actor-Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Supporting Actress-Viola Davis, Fences
Ensemble-Fences