We’re still collating all the data Rob has assembled from Awards Daily’s Simulated Oscar Ballot Project. Seems each year we understand the mechanics of voter tabulation better and better. Each year we find new indicators that help us refine that understanding into more reliable prediction tools.
Instead of trying to anticipate the direction the conversation around these results will take, we’ll make this intro minimal. If you have questions, ask us in the comments and we’ll do our best to answer. If we see some faulty interpretations, we’ll join in discussion and try to steer things toward a more accurate explanation.
This year, roughly 1/2 of 1% of our participants self-identified as “Academy Member or Close to an Academy Member.” Interesting to see those voters chose Moonlight over La La Land by a 2:1 ratio on the first round of counting, and that 66%/33% split in Moonlight’s favor held firm all the way to the final round.
(We’ll have the complete set of PDF spreadsheets online before long, but for now I’ll post these 3 pages of the eventual 20-page report.)
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
