Unpacking Michael Patterson’s Telluride Predictions

My friend Michael Patterson puts up a list of predictions of films that might go to Telluride. He keeps a running tally, week by week, with updates. As you all know, we’re trying to suss out the situation to see whether or not our eventual Best Picture winner will emerge.

Here are the films Patterson is predicting this week:

1) Wonderstruck – Todd Haynes brought Carol to Telluride, Wonderstruck played at Cannes.
2) Downsizing – Alexander Payne is a Telluride regular, bought Nebraska and The Descendants there.
3) Battle of the Sexes – Fox Searchlight pic with Emma Stone, Steve Carell.
4) The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro’s film starring Sally Hawkins.
5) Darkest Hour – Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, here’s hoping this goes.
6) A Fantastic Woman – Sebastián Lelio directs.
7) Hostiles – Scott Cooper directs, starring Christian Bale and Rosamund Pike.
8) Lady Bird – written and directed by Greta Gerwig.
9) The Rider – written and directed by Chloé Zhao.
10) Human Flow – by Ai Weiwei
11) Loving Vincent – about Van Gogh’s mysterious death.
12) First They Killed My Father – Angelina Jolie directed pic.
13) Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool – Annette Bening, Jamie Bell and an all-star cast head this ensemble.
14) Wormwood
15) The Florida Project (was a standout in Cannes) and Visages/Villages (tie)

He goes on to possibly include: Loveless, You Were Never Really Here, Lean on Pete, Mary Magdalene, The Other Side of Hope, Mektoub My Love, First Reformed, Happy End, Our Souls at Night, The Death and Life of John F. Donovan, Molly’s Game.

So, it’s worth remembering maybe three Best Picture nominees at the most come from Telluride. Last year it was higher than usual.

2016: Moonlight+, Arrival (also Venice), La La Land (also Venice), Manchester by the Sea (also Sundance)
2015: Spotlight+, Room
2014: Birdman+, The Imitation Game
2013: 12 Years a Slave+, Nebraska, Gravity (also Venice)
2012: Argo+
2011: The Descendants, The Artist+ (at Cannes originally)
2010: The King’s Speech+, 127 Hours

We’ll keep tracking Michael‘s curiously accurate blog as the next weeks roll out.