Predictions Friday – Narrowing it Down with the Oscar Squad

The Oscar race is strangely fluid for it being almost October. Generally we have a better idea of a consensus by now — that is, what people who write about the Oscar race think. But there doesn’t appear to be any sort of unity around one movie. There are three films that seem to be, at least going by our latest Oscar Squad prediction round up, hovering at the top: Dunkirk, Darkest Hour and The Shape of Water.

Two films take place during World War II and the other takes place just after. It could be argued that all three, in their own ways, deal with fascism and totalitarianism. They are all three brilliantly written, directed, acted — with topnotch tech achievements. Beyond that, there is wiggle room for many other potential nominees, if we’re right about these three being at the top.

The next closest film is Call Me By Your Name, so we have four films that seem to be dominating the major categories. If we abide by the usual Picture/Director pairing to predict potential Best Director nominees, this is how the top four films contending for Best Picture fill four slots for best Director. Who might be the fifth? Can a woman break into the top five? If so, Greta Gerwig and Lady Bird, Patti Jenkins and Wonder Woman or Dee Rees and Mudbound could be the next in line. If not, there is Steven Spielberg for The Post (which no one has seen) or Jordan Peele for Get Out. That gives us a top 6, with potentially two or three more slots to fill for Best Picture.