Predictions Friday: Chasing Frontrunners

Is anything bound to change when the AFI rolls out their selections for the Ten Movies of 2017? Some films might get a boost, others may fall away. In general, two or three films can be added to the lineup for Best Picture in the latter part of the year, but the majority of films that will be nominated have likely already been seen.

In going over the possibilities for splits or non-split years, there is still no way to tell right now which film will emerge as the winner. Since 2009, every winner was seen at Telluride other than The Hurt Locker. The Telluride movies this year were Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing. It will take a break from history to prove this rule untrue if none of those films win the top prize this year.

We’re also going to be looking for films that will hit with PGA/DGA/SAG easily. That should narrow our possibilities down even further, to potentially 5 nominees. If you factor those in, along with Telluride, into how we think it might go — well, the list starts to narrow pretty quickly. If you remove the Telluride factor, which was going to break sooner or later, you have many more opportunities that are still in keeping with the rule that since 2004: films later than October haven’t won Best Picture. With the shortened Oscar season there just isn’t enough time to rally a large consensus around a late-breaking film. That’s the theory anyway.

Choosing the PGA 10 isn’t that hard. DGA 5 is hard. SAG ensemble 5 is the hardest of all because we know they don’t always pick films that they believe are “Best Picture” material. Sometimes they just pick good ensembles.

So let’s go over this again, in loose prediction format for Best Picture:

DGA most likely right now
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Get Out or The Post

Also possible: Call Me By Your Name

PGA most likely
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Call Me By Your Name
Get Out
The Post
The Florida Project
Mudbound
Wonder Woman

Maybe:
Battle of the Sexes
Lady Bird
I, Tonya
Downsizing
Disaster Artist

SAG ensemble most likely:
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water
The Post
Three Billboards

Maybe:
Mudbound
Get Out
Lady Bird
Battle of the Sexes
I, Tonya
The Meyerowitz Stories

A few movies need to get some crossover love to have a shot to win. The Florida Project needs SAG. Mudbound needs the DGA. Get Out needs the SAG. We’re still arriving at our main frontrunners, however: Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, Shape of Water and Three Billboards.

And herewith, predictions:

Best Picture
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Call Me By Your Name
Get Out
The Florida Project
Mudbound
The Post
Lady Bird

Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Timothee Chalame, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, Disaster Artist

Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post
Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird

Also possible:
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Ben Mendolsohn, Darkest Hour
Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

Supporting Actress
Alison Janney, I Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, Shape of Water
Kristen Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Also possible:  
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Michelle Pfeiffer mother!

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro, Shape of Water
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
Get Out, Jordan Peele

Also possible:
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Dee Rees, Mudbound

Original Screenplay
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonaugh
Shape of Water, Guillermo Del Toro
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Darkest Hour, Anthony McCarten
Get Out, Jordan Peele

Also possible:
The Post
The Florida Project
Dunkirk
Battle of the Sexes
Downsizing

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
Wonderstruck, Brian Selznick
Mudbound, Dee Rees, Virgil Williams
Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber

Editing
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards
Shape of Water
The Post

Cinematography
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water
The Post

Production Design
Dunkirk
The Post
Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty and the Beast

Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman
The Last Jedi

Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman

Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Wonder Wheel
Darkest Hour
Blade Runner 2049
The Post