As we head towards the first phase of the critics awards, in a wide open year, pundits and Oscarwatchers will be desperate to glom onto any big clue that will tell them where this race is headed, specifically for Best Picture. It will seem like it’s headed in one direction because the buzz from the critics’ groups will anoint a frontrunner of sorts and that will thrust us into a year where one of two things can happen: either one movie sweeps the critics and the industry and wins the Oscar (The Artist), or else it will set up a critics vs. industry scenario where the choice the critics make becomes unacceptable to the industry (Boyhood vs. Birdman).
It seems like a pretty good bet that the critics are going to honor The Florida Project, Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and Call Me By Your Name. They don’t seem too keen, at least so far, on the bigger crowdpleasers. What’s hard to tell is whether or not the big consensus voters will agree with these choices. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t. But there is no doubt that right now there are a handful of films poised to be the critics’ darling.
The Best Director race seemed mostly predictable only a short while back, but it now seems to have shifted, ever so slightly, so that it doesn’t seem clear anymore which of the films swirling around the conversation will be the most popular. Right now, these names seem like they have the strongest buzz heading in, meaning each of these directors made films that would be considered towering achievements in any year. Also, some of the likeliest nominees are potentially all first-time directors. The last two gasps of the year, Phantom Thread and The Post will be the only two films that might earn nominations for directors who have been nominated before, or won. Spielberg has two Oscars, Paul Thomas Anderson hasn’t won but has been nominated.
The rest of the prospective nominees have never been nominated – not Guillermo Del Toro, not Christopher Nolan, not Joe Wright, not even Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton. Not Sean Baker or Greta Gerwig or Dee Rees. Not Jordan Peele. So it’s possible that all five will be first timers.
The way it’s been working lately is that when Best Picture and Best Director split, the film that wins Best Picture wins fewer Oscars compared to the one that wins Best Director — as in:
2012
Argo-3
Life of Pi – 4
2013
12 Years a Slave – 3
Gravity – 7
2015
Spotlight – 2
The Revenant – 3
Mad Max – 6
2016
Moonlight – 3
La La Land – 6
The films that won both Best Picture and Director since the ballot expanded, you have:
2009
The Hurt Locker – 6
2010
The King’s Speech – 4
2011
The Artist – 5
2014
Birdman – 4
As you can see, now with the expanded ballot, it’s hard to sweep the awards anymore. The wins tend to be divided up between at least 2 or 3 films that have been nominated for Best Picture. More films nominated, smaller clusters of wins for sweeps.
We don’t yet know what kind of year this will be. We have no real clues either. Just our own perceptions of the films we’ve seen and how they’ve been received overall. But it seems likely that Best Director could look like this:
1. Christopher Nolan – has never been nominated, made one of the few big hits of the year with Dunkirk.
2. Guillermo Del Toro – has never been nominated, made one of the few uplifting, original and brilliant films of the year with The Shape of Water.
3. Sean Baker – The Florida Project is beloved across the board, and exactly the kind of films Oscar voters often respond to.
4. Martin McDonaugh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri seems to be capturing the zeitgeist a bit.
5. Jordan Peele – made the other big box-office hit in this year’s race and has made easily one of the standouts of 2017. Could make history if he wins.
6. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name is a favorite of the early watchers and could be one of the strong five.
7. Joe Wright – whose Darkest Hour is somehow a fast-paced thriller about wartime strategy with great directing throughout.
8. Dee Rees – her hard-hitting Mudbound is the best and most underrated film of the year. She could make history as the first black woman ever even nominated for Best Director.
9. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird is another film that is beloved by many, and Gerwig could be one of the few women ever to crack the top five.
10. Dayton and Faris – for Battle of the Sexes if the film catches any buzz.
There are films hovering on the cusp that could be wild card picks too — like Alexander Payne’s Downsizing or Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit. You just never know. A single nomination or win could revive these names from the fringe.
Herewith, the predictions for this week:
Best Picture
Frontrunners
Dunkirk
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
The Post
Get Out
The Florida Project
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
Lady Bird
Contenders
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya
Battle of the Sexes
Hostiles
Downsizing
The Big Sick
Wonder Woman
Detroit
Best Actor
Frontrunners
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Timothee Chalame, Call Me by Your Name
James Franco, Disaster Artist
Contenders
Christian Bale, Hostiles
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Garett Hedlund, Mudbound
Algee Smith, Detroit
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Sam Elliot, The Hero
Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky
Best Actress
Frontrunners
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I Tonya
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Meryl Streep, The Post
Contenders
Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
Contenders
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Jason Clark, Mudbound
Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Anthony Mackie, Detroit
John Boyega, Detroit
Supporting Actress
Alison Janney, I Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, Shape of Water
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Kristen Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Contenders
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Jennifer Ehle, A Quiet Passion
Best Director
Frontrunners
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro, Shape of Water
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Contenders
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Dee Rees, Mudbound
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Dayton and Faris, Battle of the Sexes
Scott Cooper, Hostiles
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Original Screenplay
Frontrunners
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonaugh
The Shape of Water, Guillermo Del Toro
Darkest Hour, Anthony McCarten
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Post, Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
Contenders
Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
The Florida Project, Sean Baker
Battle of the Sexes, Simon Beaufoy
Downsizing, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
Detroit, Mark Boal
Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners
Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory
Mudbound, Dee Rees, Virgil Williams
Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
Wonderstruck, Brian Selznick
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Contenders
Hostiles, Scott Cooper
First They Killed my Father, Angelina Jolie
Editing
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Get Out
The Shape of Water
The Florida Project
Contenders
Three Billboards
The Post
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Cinematography
Frontrunners
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Contenders
Call Me by Your Name
Wonder Wheel
Hostiles
First They Killed My Father
Production Design
Frontrunners
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water
The Post
Phantom Thread
Contenders
Blade Runner 2049
Mudbound
Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman
Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman
Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
Shape of Water
Wonder Wheel
Darkest Hour
Animated feature
Coco
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby
Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Wonder Woman
Beauty and the Beast
Makeup and Hair
I, Tonya
The Post
Darkest Hour
Shape of Water
Battle of the Sexes