Last November 17, I wrote that Best Picture might look like: Dunkirk, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water. Now, if you go by just the critics, it looks like Call Me By Your Name vs. Lady Bird vs. The Post vs. Get Out vs. The Shape of Water. Critics split their love of a few core movies as New York and Los Angeles announced, along with the National Board of Review. They split the top two awards three different ways. The last time that happened was in 2015 when Mad Max: Fury Road took the NBR, Carol took New York, and Spotlight took Los Angeles, while for directing NBR went with Ridley Scott, NYFCC went with Todd Haynes, and LAFCA awarded George Miller. Three very different fates for those films, with Spotlight eking out a win with just two Oscars: Picture and Screenplay.
We’re not quite through the critics phase, but the Los Angeles Film Critics gave the Shape of Water a big boost. It did not win Best Picture but Sally Hawkins won Best Actress and Guillermo Del Toro tied for Best Director. That is the first sign of life for the film among critics.
The biggest industry vote will be revealed December 13th with the SAG nominations, midway through the month. That may narrow the potential winners even though the SAG nominating committee is only 2,000 voters. That’s still bigger than the biggest film critics group, the BFCA, with around 300 members. It’s important to see what big groups will do because they don’t always mirror what the smaller critics groups do.
For instance, in 2012 Lincoln, Argo, Life of Pi and Zero Dark Thirty were the big Oscar movies. The critics fell hard for Zero Dark Thirty but didn’t touch the others. Didn’t matter. Argo took the season. Ditto Birdman, which was not really a critics favorite (although it did win the Gotham’s and Spirit Awards).
Let’s take just those three back to the implementation of the preferential ballot:
2009
National Board of Review – Up in the Air
New York – The Hurt Locker
Los Angeles – The Hurt Locker
Best Picture/Director: The Hurt Locker
2010
National Board of Review – The Social Network
New York – The Social Network
Los Angeles – The Social Network
Best Picture/Director: The King’s Speech
2011
National Board of Review – Hugo
New York – The Artist
Los Angeles – The Descendants
Best Picture/Director: The Artist
2012
National Board of Review – Zero Dark Thirty
New York – Zero Dark Thirty
Los Angeles – Amour
Best Picture-Argo/Director-Life of Pi
2013
National Board of Review – Her
New York – American Hustle
Los Angeles – Gravity and Her (tie)
Best Picture – 12 Years a Slave/Director Gravity
2014
National Board of Review – A Most Violent Year
New York – Boyhood
Los Angeles – Boyhood
Best Picture/Director: Birdman
2015
National Board of Review – Mad Max Fury Road
New York – Carol
Los Angeles – Spotlight
Best Picture: Spotlight/Director The Revenant
2016
National Board of Review – Manchester by the Sea
New York – La La Land
Los Angeles – Moonlight
Best Picture: Moonlight/Director La La Land
2017
National Board of Review – The Post
New York – Lady Bird
Los Angeles – Call Me By Your Name
There isn’t really any conclusion to draw here except to note that every Oscar year is different. There are patterns that are sometimes right but, in general, the race is affected and influenced by what’s swirling around it at the time. The politics was about Trump last year when La La Land was set to win Best Picture and that certainly colored how people viewed the film. Also, the helplessness the Left collectively experienced then and even now has motivated them to be aggressive in how they police something like the Oscar race, over which they feel they may have more control. Lady Bird doing so well THIS year seems to fit with what is happening around us right now, where in any other year it might not have. Dunkirk and Darkest Hour may have had much more impact in years where the focus wasn’t so much on historically marginalized groups like women, black, and LGBTQ communities.
The Gurus of Gold has The Post out front here in December, which is an interesting prospect. On the podcast last night (which will be posted later today) we talked about The Post maybe being the first movie to win in Best Picture over a decade that was a “late breaker,” that is, not a film released on or before Telluride/Venice. The Post winning would be making history since the preferential ballot was implemented, but who knows. Things are different every year.
Many film critics still have Dunkirk out front. In a year where the Oscar race favors critics’ darlings, Dunkirk would not have a chance. But in a year where studio movies live to see another day, it will have a great chance, along with The Post. I am surprised that no one has Call Me By Your Name in their number one spot. I think it has a pretty good shot to win after how it’s been doing right now, taking the Moonlight/Spotlight slot.
Here is how I see it going forward:
Needs DGA most:
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project
Needs SAG ensemble most:
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Darkest Hour
Mudbound
Most likely to get DGA:
Christopher Nolan
Jordan Peele
Steven Spielberg
Greta Gerwig
Guillermo Del Toro
Most likely to get SAG ensemble
Lady Bird
Mudbound
The Post
Get Out
Three Billboards
But I do believe that the strongest ten right now for the top categories (Picture, Director, some acting, writing) include:
Lady Bird (needs a directing nom)
Get Out (needs an acting nom)
The Post
Dunkirk (needs screenplay, supporting actor)
Call Me By Your Name
The Shape of Water
The Florida Project
Darkest Hour (needs directing, writing)
Phantom Thread (needs directing)
Mudbound (needs directing, writing, acting)
The Disaster Artist (needs director)
Might the Golden Globes or Critics Choice or industry awards drive some other movie into the picture? Maybe. This is the kind of Oscar year we have to take it as it comes. It’s been unpredictable from the beginning and remains unpredictable.