Los Angeles Film Critics Preview, Predictions and Contest!

The Los Angeles Film Critics Association has a slightly different flavor from the New York Film Critics Circle in that they do tend to throw wild cards into the mix. Well, I suppose New York did as well, but there is no reason to think LAFCA will deviate from the current wave of favorites the critics have embraced to the exclusion of everything else: Lady Bird, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name. These three films – by a female director, a black director, and a gay director — seem to reflect their idea of broader representation in Hollywood than the films by the more well-known iconic male directors in the race, like Steven Spielberg, Christopher Nolan, Guillermo del Toro. Will the industry agree? Hard to say. This is an unpredictable year and we’re all just here rolling with it.

However, it is always worth noting that the industry is usually different and more populist than the critics. By design. The critics would probably rather drink arsenic-laced Kool-Aid than have the same taste as the Academy (even if they kind of do, we’ll pretend they don’t). They really do seem to delight in shaping the race — they are as invested as everyone else even when they pretend they aren’t. Even Manohla Dargis and A.O. Scott do their annual “If I Had a Ballot.” They all say the Oscars are meaningless but believe it when I tell you they care. Because no matter what, the Oscars are still the most watched awards show and they’re really the only group where history matters. Oscar winners are always given that credit in their obits, for instance. It could be our only version of a kind of royalty.

Either which way, although LAFCA has historically been a “kiss of death” for Best Picture, both Spotlight and Moonlight both won Best Film and then went on to repeat at the Oscars. So, will Lady Bird become next in line? It’s been given the seal of approval by the NYFCC and by Barry Jenkins himself in Telluride. It is being hailed as the most acclaimed film of all-time at Rotten Tomatoes. I’m gonna say that there’s a pretty good chance it will be sunny on Sunday here in Los Angeles because it always is, and a pretty good chance Lady Bird will clean up there.

Our predictions:

Best Picture
Get Out — Marshall Flores, Jazz Tangcay, Joey Moser
Lady Bird — Sasha Stone
The Shape of Water — Clarence Moye, Ryan Adams
Call Me By Your Name — Jalal Haddad

Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name — Moye, Stone, Adams
James Franco, The Disaster Artist — Flores, Moser
Robert Pattinson — Haddad

Best Actress
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird — Stone
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water — Moye, Adams
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread — Flores
Meryl Streep, The Post — Tangcay
Daniela Vega — Haddad, Moser

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project — Moye, Adams, Moser
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name and The Shape of Water — Stone, Flores, Tangcay, Haddad

Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, Downsizing — Moye, Moser
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird — Stone
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread — Flores
Alison Janney, I, Tonya — Tangcay
Mary J. Blige — Adams
Lois Smith — Haddad

Director
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water — Moye, Adams
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk — Flores
Jordan Peele, Get Out — Stone
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird — Tangcay
Luca Guadagnino — Haddad, Moser

Screenplay
Phantom Thread — Moye, Stone, Tangcay
Get Out — Flores
Call Me By Your Name — Adams
Lady Bird — Haddad, Moye

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 — Moye, Stone, Flores, Adams, Haddad, Moser
Mudbound — Tangcay

Production Design
The Shape of Water — Flores, Moye, Tangcay, Moser
Blade Runner 2049 — Stone, Adams
mother! — Haddad