The love for Lady Bird is really just 50% about the actual movie. It’s equally about love for its writer/director Greta Gerwig. This must be said in case you’re wondering what separates it from all of the other films directed by women this year (and there are many). But few female directors can reach for the iconic status usually reserved for men when it comes to the directors branch at the Academy. Kathryn Bigelow did it. Sofia Coppola did it. Back when Jane Campion was nominated this wasn’t so much a requirement. That means Gerwig could absolutely take this thing to the finish line. Remember, they have to WANT to reward her — it is never just about the movie, never ever just about the art, not where women are concerned. Not with the way the mostly male-dominated industry goes.
For some critics, Lady Bird is that one best shot to prove they aren’t sexist: they are letting one female-centric film through so it’s praised as the all-time, best-reviewed film ever on Rotten Tomatoes. Rewarding Gerwig is partly because that they like her (because who wouldn’t), but it’s also to help erase their disgraceful history of shutting women out. This could turn out to be true for the industry as well. What you need to win is an urgency to vote for something. That was La La Land’s problem last year — there was no urgency to vote for it. But a Gerwig win, this year of all years, would go a long way to soothe the wound left by Trump, to ease the pain left by the sexual harassment claims, and most of all may stop women from bitching about how no women ever wins (and that should hold them off for another 8-10 years).
Kathryn Bigelow won in 2009 and for some that probably felt like enough. But tick tick tick and the complaints have gotten louder. Problem for voters? Too many never liked movies directed by women for whatever reason. They don’t see them as good enough. But now they aren’t taking any chances, the critics. They’re putting their chips 100% behind Greta Gerwig and Lady Bird. There is no wondering whether Dee Rees will make the cut, or Patty Jenkins. Gerwig’s film doesn’t face any of the questions associated with Mudbound or Wonder Woman. To make this historic moment happen there has to be unity and confidence behind the vote, and I suspect there is or there will be.
So if you find yourself thinking Lady Bird is “too light” or “not serious enough” — which is what I said on Twitter, thinking that films like The Florida Project (extreme poverty), Get Out (racism), The Shape of Water (oppression), Dunkirk and Darkest Hour (beating back fascism) would resonate more because of their importance — I did not realize that what many people will value more is the chance to award a woman. Finally. For a film they actually like and many love. This is why right now Lady Bird is my choice for the frontrunner for both Best Picture and Best Director.
I suspect she will get some competition from Christopher Nolan and perhaps Jordan Peele, but at this moment the momentum is on Gerwig’s side. Once the wheels are set in motion, it is usually pushed from being a fantasy into becoming a solid reality. Seeing a woman on stage to accept a major award will bring the house down and receive a standing ovation, as Moonlight would have gotten if it had been called out on Oscar night when that final envelope was opened.
The applause will be for every sad person who had to watch Hillary lose, for all of the people who feel demoralized by the recent wave of sexual harassment revelations. The Academy will be saying, “See, we don’t discriminate against women because, look, here is one winning and winning for a movie we actually like.” That’s big. That’s the kind of thing you wish for and hope for in the Oscar race, but can sometimes be hard to negotiate or construct.
I don’t see what could slow down Lady Bird at this point — it fits the Telluride rule, and it will get a SAG ensemble nod. Can Gerwig make it into the DGA? Right now it seems so. Of course, we’re still only in the critics phase and that can sometimes be misleading. But as Kris Tapley says, Lady Bird is a populist film. It isn’t challenging or all that deep. It doesn’t try to be. It just tries to tell a good story, which it does. It’s a success no matter how you slice it.
Can another movie takes Lady Bird’s place as the frontrunner? Not sure. There is a long way to go yet. One miss in a crucial guild can push the race in a different direction. Remember Boyhood was the frontrunner until suddenly it wasn’t.
But right now, this is where the energy seems to be. Add to that the major push the film is getting, and you have your Oscar season ingénue in Ronan, who will be dressed to the nines at every Academy meet and greet, like Emma Stone last year, like Brie Larson. The Oscar strategist behind Ronan knows that what they want to see is a princess for a season and she will give them that.
But it is still too soon to write off the other movies that the critics are ignoring. We don’t know yet what thousands of industry people will think. We only know what an insular group of cliquish film critics think. And that ain’t everybody. To see this race as linear is to read it incorrectly. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn’t. You have to be ready for both eventualities.
As for Best Picture, remember the two things I’ve told you about the preferential ballot? A movie can win two ways. The first is if there is no disagreement and the film wins on the first round of tabulation: that means if Lady Bird wins the PGA, the DGA, and the SAG ensemble, then it will win Best Picture. The second way is if it doesn’t collect 50%+1 support on the first count: if the votes are split closely between Lady Bird and, say, Get Out, then you have a split vote scenario where smaller stacks of ballots will be redistributed in additional rounds of voting. And then the preferential surprise comes into play. That means you have to start thinking about how people are ranking all of the films. You have to think about what film people who don’t like Lady Bird or Get Out will pick for number one and which of the two frontrunners they will push near the top of their ballot and why.
I suspect that Lady Bird and Get Out could split the #1 votes. And then all bets are off and we have no idea what will win. But we’re pretty sure that whatever does win will be a film that is flying under the radar, has no backlash, and has a widespread slice of support, for whatever reason. We don’t know what that movie will be, but we soon will. At some point we’ll able to call the three top frontrunners for Best Picture, and then we can try to figure out how people might rank their votes.
There’s a long way to go yet, Oscar watchers.
Predictions:
Best Picture
Lady Bird
Get Out
Dunkirk
The Post
Call Me By Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Darkest Hour
The Florida Project
Phantom Thread
Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, Disaster Artist
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Best Actress
Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I Tonya
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Ben Mendolsohn, Darkest Hour
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Supporting Actress
Alison Janney, I Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, Shape of Water
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Tiffany Haddish, Girl Trip
Best Director
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Original Screenplay
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Post, Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh
Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Mudbound, Dee Rees, Virgil Williams
Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
Hostiles, Scott Cooper
Editing
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
Darkest Hour
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Post
Darkest Hour
Production Design
Dunkirk
The Post
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
War for the Planet of the Apes
Beauty and the beast
The Greatest Showman
Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
War for the Planet of the Apes
The Last Jedi
Coco
Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
The Post
Blade Runner 2049
The Greatest Showman
Original Score
The Shape of Water
The Post
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
Dunkirk
Shape of Water
Beauty and the Beast
The Last Jedi
Makeup and Hair
The Greatest Showman
The Post
Beauty and the Beast