EW’s Oscar Issue Proclaims Lady Bird the Oscar Frontrunner

For most of the years I’ve been doing this site, we’ve waited for what movie EW was going to put on the cover for its Oscar issue. Sometimes they’re right, sometimes they’re wrong but generally they pick what they consider to be the frontrunner heading into voting. I wasn’t sure what they were going to put on this year, but I figured Get Out would have been a safe bet, given that, in many ways outside the bubble that is Oscar, it is the film of the year.

Now that Three Billboards has been whacked, and Shape of Water has no SAG ensemble nom, looks more and more like the choice for Best Picture will be Lady Bird. Entertainment Weekly just did what Kristen Bell did at the SAGs, what the critics at Rotten Tomatoes did, what the industry is really hoping will be realized – that the year of the woman might end with a film written and directed by a woman winning big. It’s hard to square that reality with the actual film (low stakes) but I don’t think it’s going to matter much.  So many people love love love love love the movie and that is all you need to win Best Picture. You have to be the movie everyone loves and no one hates, but even more than that, you have to be the movie people push to the top of the ballot for whatever reason even if it isn’t your favorite.

Traditionally, the winner would be a film that felt urgent and important – I don’t think this movie does, but I think its filmmaker certainly does, a writer and director who is a woman feels urgent to me. I would love for them to have done a cover with Lady Bird, Get Out AND The Shape of Water because it would have reflected what the Best Picture race really looks like, but they’ve played their hand and put their chips behind Lady Bird to win big. I’m having a hard time coming up with any reasons why it won’t.  The odd thing about the film is that it was completely shut out of the Critics Choice awards, missed the Globe for Director and the BAFTA for Pic and Director, which in any other year would make it a long shot – but it fits a narrative that won’t be stopped.