Writers Guild Preview – Original Screenplay Might Point the Way to Best Picture, and Might Not

We are still in a situation where we don’t know which films will grab a consensus vote. It has to be one the most people agree that they like and that very few dislike. There are several possibilities, which I’ve laid out previously and will do so again here, ranked in order of how they sit in the race.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has been quietly trucking along as an under-the-radar pick. That’s really exactly where you want to be heading into this phase of the Oscar race. It probably won’t win the Golden Globe for Drama (although, it actually might). Either way, its luck with the Globes voters will not really impact its Oscar chances. Three Billboards has the necessary nominations there: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor. It’s sitting mightily pretty at the SAGs with the most nominations — they liked it, they really liked it. Ensemble, Actress, Supporting Actor x2. It won the TIFF Audience Award in what many considered was a shock. It played at Venice (though not at Telluride, not a dealbreaker). It would be the first film since Million Dollar Baby to win with a lead actress nominee in it at all, let alone one that could actually win. It rides the line between good people doing bad things, white people learning how to be not racist by letting go of their past, and is about forgiveness. The thing Three Billboards has going for it over all of those things is that you can sit anyone down in front of it and they will at least get it, if not necessarily love it. It doesn’t not alienate anyone. And because it has flown so low on the radar, no one has put a target on its back. Yet. If Three Billboards wins a single major award, then that backlash will start. Might it be enough to shift perception? It might. Lots more to learn before that happens.

Get Out — if there is a zeitgeist film burning like wildfire, this one seems to be it. But it’s hard to know if it will be a big guild winner or not. Like Three Billboards, any significant win for any film at the Globes or PGA may possibly spark some kind of backlash. Or, the win will feel right and good and the movie will ride the winning train all the way to Oscar night. Get Out is kind of a miracle of a hit, one that isn’t exclusive to the mostly white film community, but one that made $175 million on a $5 million budget. It’s hard to make the argument that this movie doesn’t deserve to win Best Picture of 2017. When you look at the year from a macro perspective, it makes sense to call this the film of the year. So far, no black director has ever won in the directing category — 12 Years a Slave and Moonlight both won Best Picture without winning director. But Best Director is as competitive as Best Picture.

Lady Bird — Greta Gerwig’s movie has now made more money than any film from A24. It’s made more money than all of Noah Baumbach’s films combined. And it’s true that underneath all the stories of its success runs the undercurrent of “that’s great… for a girl.” Can Lady Bird capture people’s hearts beyond the insular core of mostly white cinema-goers? Can it win a consensus with thousands of people voting? Hard to say, but if it does, that whole “for a girl” thing works in Gerwig’s favor big time, especially a year like this. It will also potentially, like the two films mentioned above, spark a backlash. We’re looking for the backlash-free movie to win in a split year with a preferential ballot. So far Lady Bird is not divisive, is well-loved across the board, and captures at least a part of the zeitgeist. It sucks that Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig can’t both win, since who wants to be the asshole that makes that choice? No one. Both are beloved. Both films are successful achievements. Neither Gerwig nor Peele made the cut at the Golden Globes for Best Director. That’s not a total dealbreaker but it could be, and it’s maybe an indication that they are splitting their own votes somehow. Both did, however, earn a SAG ensemble nomination, which is a much bigger deal. Now both need DGA nominations to have any real shot at winning Best Picture.

The Shape of Water is in it for screenplay and director, but without a SAG ensemble nomination (which it really did deserve) it’s hard to see it pulling it out for Best Picture. I’ve loved watching people discover the movie and fall in love with it, as Stephen King recently did. But, as we know, for a film to achieve greatness it must often be divisive, and Shape of Water is divisive. That could make it hard to win on preferential ballot, though that will not stop Guillermo del Toro from winning and right now, it feels like Best Director is down to del Toro and Christopher Nolan if there is a split. This film only grows stronger as it reaches more people, which is good for hitting the sweet spot come voting time.

Those feel like the four that could win at the moment. The WGA will be yet another contest between all of them except one: Three Billboards is not eligible for the WGA; neither is Darkest Hour. Still, any original screenplay mismatch like this continues to be interesting because it allows for another surprise screenplay to sneak in. We expect the Oscars to go this way:

Get Out
Lady Bird
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water
The Post vs. The Big Sick for fifth slot, I think. There is a chance for a surprise entry here but not as likely. Really, you’re looking for what movie will get that fifth slot, if our estimates are right leading up to this point. If any of the top four films aren’t there, that might indicate a weak link.

For WGA, it is a little easier to tease out original screenplay without Three Billboards:

Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
The Post
The Big Sick

Phantom Thread is another one to watch out for. Paul Thomas Anderson has four WGA nominations in his career. Can that make the cut at the Oscars? If so, which screenplay does it bump?

My theory is that what wins original screenplay this year wins Best Picture. That has been consistently true in the era of the preferential ballot, even more than a Best Director win. The Artist is the only film in recent years that didn’t win screenplay. Because of the odd nature of this year, it’s conceivable that you might see a three-way split: Best Picture, director, and screenplay all going to different movies. It would be very strange, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. I could see it going: Get Out wins Picture, Lady Bird wins Screenplay, Shape of Water or Dunkirk wins Director. It would be one of those history making years, that’s for sure. More likely, screenplay goes with Picture and/or Director.

In the adapted category, things are a little less certain. We think we know which are the locks right now:

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

Again, the fifth slot is tricky — there are many contenders and three of them have Wonder in the title:

Wonder
Wonderstruck
Wonder Woman

And then there could be:

Hostiles
All the Money in the World
Blade Runner 2049
The Beguiled
Lady Macbeth

At this point, I’m not sure what the adapted category will look like.

But at the moment, it seems safe to predict for the WGA:

Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
The Post
The Big Sick

And for Adapted:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Wonder

But I’ll be watching to see if Wonder Woman or All the Money in the World make the cut!