The British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTAs) are coming this weekend. The betting odds, believe it or not, have Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri taking both Best Film and Best British Film. I’m not so sure about that. I’m thinking a different movie will win Best Film — maybe and probably The Shape of Water. I suppose that Three Billboards could win both — I can’t really get a read on anything this year, to be honest, but I am wondering how the BAFTA might influence the race on the eve of Oscar voting. Here are some scenarios to work through.
- If Three Billboards does very well, with one week of Oscar voting coming up, you can expect there to be massive amounts of think pieces and protests, probably enough to snuff out whatever remains of its chances. It’s mostly been left alone because it’s not seen as a threat but if it comes out a big winner it will become a bigger target.
- if Get Out or Lady Bird win in original screenplay, over Shape of Water and Three Billboards, that’s a big deal for either of those movies.
- If Dunkirk surprises and wins big in Picture and/or Director we can see that movie suddenly as a formidable competitor right when final Oscar voting begins.
Let’s go through them, shall we? You have no idea how much I want to predict Paddington 2 to win British Film. But I won’t.
2017 NOMINATIONS
(presented in 2018)
BEST FILM
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, Marco Morabito, Peter Spears
DARKEST HOUR Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
DUNKIRK Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale — Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh — Jazz Tangcay
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
DARKEST HOUR Joe Wright, Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski — Tangcay
THE DEATH OF STALIN Armando Iannucci, Kevin Loader, Laurent Zeitoun, Yann Zenou, Ian Martin, David Schneider
GOD’S OWN COUNTRY Francis Lee, Manon Ardisson, Jack Tarling
LADY MACBETH William Oldroyd, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly, Alice Birch
PADDINGTON 2 Paul King, David Heyman, Simon Farnaby
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin — Stone, Flores
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
THE GHOUL Gareth Tunley (Writer/Director/Producer), Jack Healy Guttman & Tom Meeten (Producers)
I AM NOT A WITCH Rungano Nyoni (Writer/Director), Emily Morgan (Producer)
JAWBONE Johnny Harris (Writer/Producer), Thomas Napper (Director)
KINGDOM OF US Lucy Cohen (Director)
LADY MACBETH Alice Birch (Writer), William Oldroyd (Director), Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly (Producer) — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
ELLE Paul Verhoeven, Saïd Ben Saïd — Flores
FIRST THEY KILLED MY FATHER Angelina Jolie, Rithy Panh
THE HANDMAIDEN Park Chan-wook, Syd Lim
LOVELESS Andrey Zvyagintsev, Alexander Rodnyansky
THE SALESMAN Asghar Farhadi, Alexandre Mallet-Guy — Stone, Tangcay
DOCUMENTARY
CITY OF GHOSTS Matthew Heineman
I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO Raoul Peck
ICARUS Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
AN INCONVENIENT SEQUEL Bonni Cohen, Jon Shenk
JANE Brett Morgen — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
ANIMATED FILM
COCO Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
LOVING VINCENT Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Ivan Mactaggart
MY LIFE AS A COURGETTE Claude Barras, Max Karli
DIRECTOR
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Denis Villeneuve
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Luca Guadagnino
DUNKIRK Christopher Nolan
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
GET OUT Jordan Peele — Tangcay
I, TONYA Steven Rogers
LADY BIRD Greta Gerwig
THE SHAPE OF WATER Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Martin McDonagh — Stone, Flores
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME James Ivory — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
THE DEATH OF STALIN Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, David Schneider
FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL Matt Greenhalgh
MOLLY’S GAME Aaron Sorkin
PADDINGTON 2 Simon Farnaby, Paul King
LEADING ACTRESS
ANNETTE BENING Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
FRANCES McDORMAND Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — Stone, Tangcay
MARGOT ROBBIE I, Tonya
SALLY HAWKINS The Shape of Water — Flores
SAOIRSE RONAN Lady Bird
LEADING ACTOR
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS Phantom Thread
DANIEL KALUUYA Get Out
GARY OLDMAN Darkest Hour — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
JAMIE BELL Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET Call Me by Your Name
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
ALLISON JANNEY I, Tonya — Tangcay
KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS Darkest Hour
LAURIE METCALF Lady Bird
LESLEY MANVILLE Phantom Thread — Stone, Flores
OCTAVIA SPENCER The Shape of Water
SUPPORTING ACTOR
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER All the Money in the World
HUGH GRANT Paddington 2
SAM ROCKWELL Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
WILLEM DAFOE The Florida Project
WOODY HARRELSON Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
ORIGINAL MUSIC
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Benjamin Wallfisch, Hans Zimmer
DARKEST HOUR Dario Marianelli
DUNKIRK Hans Zimmer — Flores
PHANTOM THREAD Jonny Greenwood
THE SHAPE OF WATER Alexandre Desplat — Stone, Tangcay
CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Roger Deakins — Stone
DARKEST HOUR Bruno Delbonnel
DUNKIRK Hoyte van Hoytema — Tangcay
THE SHAPE OF WATER Dan Laustsen — Flores
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Ben Davis
EDITING
BABY DRIVER Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Joe Walker
DUNKIRK Lee Smith — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
THE SHAPE OF WATER Sidney Wolinsky
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Jon Gregory
PRODUCTION DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Tangcay
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
DARKEST HOUR Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
DUNKIRK Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
THE SHAPE OF WATER Paul Austerberry, Jeff Melvin, Shane Vieau — Stone, Flores
COSTUME DESIGN
BEAUTY AND THE BEAST Jacqueline Durran — Tangcay
DARKEST HOUR Jacqueline Durran
I, TONYA Jennifer Johnson
PHANTOM THREAD Mark Bridges — Stone, Flores
THE SHAPE OF WATER Luis Sequeira
MAKE UP and HAIR
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Donald Mowat, Kerry Warn
DARKEST HOUR David Malinowski, Ivana Primorac, Lucy Sibbick, Kazuhiro Tsuji — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
I, TONYA Deborah La Mia Denaver, Adruitha Lee
VICTORIA & ABDUL Daniel Phillips – Tangcay
WONDER Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten
SOUND
BABY DRIVER Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater — Tangcay
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mark Mangini, Mac Ruth
DUNKIRK Richard King, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Mark Weingarten — Stone, Flores
THE SHAPE OF WATER Christian Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Nathan Robitaille, Brad Zoern
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
BLADE RUNNER 2049 Gerd Nefzer, John Nelson — Tangcay
DUNKIRK Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson
THE SHAPE OF WATER Dennis Berardi, Trey Harrell, Kevin Scott – Stone
STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Nominees
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES Nominees — Stone, Flores
EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
DANIEL KALUUYA — Tangcay
FLORENCE PUGH
JOSH O’CONNOR
TESSA THOMPSON
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET — Stone, Flores
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Oh yes… that still hurts so much!! The brits may it right!
I am german and i HATE Toni Erdmann! Nothing funny about it or a great Story!
Salesman is an excellent film and was clearly the best of the five. Toni Erdmann was the Royal Nonesuch of the category and deserved to lose
Does anyone know if it’s possible to view any streaming of the BAFTA ceremony?
Hugh Grant and Paddington for the win.
Final BAFTA predictions:
Best Film: Three Billboards
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
Best Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Make Up & Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Original Music: The Shape of Water
Best Sound: Dunkirk
Best Special Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Animated Film: Coco
Best Documentary: Jane
Best Film Not in the English Language: Elle
Outstanding British Film: Darkest Hour (Alt. Three Billboards)
The EE Rising Star Award: Timothee Chalamet
I’m predicting that Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, and Sam Rockwell will prevail at BAFTAs. But I think they are going to throw a curveball with Supporting Actress and award Lesley Manville, and that could split the alternative vote with Laurie Metcalf and give Allison an Oscar victory. I think that is what will happen. If Laurie wins BAFTA, then we might be in for a Mark Rylance type victory. But I’m keeping my bet on Allison and the other three acting frontrunners for the Oscar no matter what happens tomorrow.
What time does the BAFTAs occur on the East Coast? I live in upstate NY. What time would it be on, in my neck of the woods?
I simply don’t understand how Sasha and Marshall can predict SHAPE to win BAFTA !
The first clue that they preferred 3 bills was in the noms for BSA category when they wedged Harrelson and Rockwell in and booted Jenkins from SHAPE …3 Bills is an actors showcase and the Brit actors love it , or so I’ve heard
.However, I do realize that the voters all receive screeners , so they’ve all seen the movie ,regardless to the fact that SHAPE didn’t open in cinemas in Britain until after the voting ended , but there’s been a lack of buzz and chatter for SHAPE in the MSM that often influences the way folks vote !
Furthermore , 3 Bills quickly became the betting favourite as soon as the noms were announced and has remained there due to the money bet on it , even after McDonagh received his BD snub at Oscar …that to me indicates confidence as some BAFTA voters like to bet …look upon it as a rough opinion poll in an election !
3 Bills is the very likely winner , but there could be an upset from DUNKIRK ;after all, the war looms large in the British psyche and voters are easily influenced by patriotism; or Nolan could simply win BD and 3 Bills BP ……one thing I am certain about is that SHAPE will definitely not win BP ..and if it did I will eat my hat !
PS /I suspect that Marshall and Sasha are looking at this from a dry statistic viewpoint of the number of noms that SHAPE has and the trend that BAFTA voters like to award BP and BD to the same movie and assuming that Del Toro will win BD …I think they’re wrong!
If a BP contender didn’t open at the cinemas in America until after the voting for Oscar had ended , would you expect it to win BP ?
And those are the “actual best movies of 2017” according to what measurement again? Because where I’m sitting, they are both very, very far from the best.
Paddington 2 winning for Best British Film would be great. I’m guessing they will give it to Darkest Hour instead, though.
If Manville wins the BAFTA, I’m not gonna know WHAT to do with Supporting Actress at the Oscars.
-Does AMPAS follow suit a la Tilda Swinton? Not to mention all the late Phantom Thread love.
-Is Janney just way out ahead anyway? She is beloved and it could just be her time.
-Is there a Mark Rylance type win in store for Metcalf? It could very well happen.
I just. don’t. know. And I feel like I’m overthinking it.
BAFTA declined to award Asghar Farhadi for his masterpiece “A Separation” so they are unlikely to reward him now.
Yet at the same time, they made numerous bigger mistakes. This one actually meant something. But actually, there’s no way of knowing what they really liked.
Goodness Isabelle Huppert is eye candy
Nolan can win , but I wouldn’t bet on it ; nor would I confidently bet on Del Toro
Damn, Toni Erdmann is a great film.
And yet so predictable
Is there a BAFTA contest? I couldn’t find it.
As of late, BAFTA has been aligning with Oscar Director even if a British director (who doesn’t win the Oscar) is in the hunt.
Paddington 2 is not snubbed juz not eligible as it din open in the States by end o 2017
You’re probably going to be livid, unfortunately… (And no, I don’t get it either, about TSOW.)
I could see The Handmaiden winning. (I’d certainly much prefer it to The Salesman.) But it seems they go super-boring in that category since the change of voting rules, and just copy the Oscar winner pretty much every single time. 🙁
I haven´t seen “Film stars don´t die in Liverpool”, but Isabelle Huppert in “Elle” delivers one of the most impressive performances by any actor or actress in this decade – at least that´s my belief. Emma Stones win was yet another example for the Academy´s notorious appetite for the eye candy in that category.
(just another, blatant example: Jennifer Lawrence over Emmanuelle Riva in 2013)
You never can tell sometimes right up until they open that envelope!!!!! 🙂