Predictions Friday – A Wide Open Race, No Frontrunners in Sight

Last year, it seemed pretty clear there were a couple of contenders coming out of the Venice/Telluride/Toronto bloodbath. Gary Oldman, Saoirse Ronan, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet. That was the acting races mostly, give or take. Best Picture looked to be between The Shape of Water (Venice/Telluride), Three Billboards (Venice/Toronto), Get Out (regular release), Lady Bird (Telluride). Best Director was Guillermo del Toro who started his march towards his first win in Venice that year. This year, his amigo Alfonso Cuaron won there. Does that signal he is the frontrunner now for Best Director, even though he won fairly recently with Gravity? Well, that third amigo, Alejandro G. Inarritu won Best Director two years a row, so you know.

Two of the “Three Amigos” have won Best Picture and Best Director in the same year. Only Cuaron stands apart as someone who won Best Director but didn’t win Best Picture. Like Cuaron, Damien Chazelle has also won Best Director but lost Best Picture. Both of them head into the Best Director race with these two compelling facts. Not to mention that 12 Years a Slave and Moonlight were the two films that WON Best Picture against them. Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins are back in this year’s race too.

It does feel like Roma and First Man are the two works of cinematic greatness heading into the race. Nothing else even comes close. But that doesn’t mean either will win Best Picture. Why not? Because the preferential ballot prevents a crowd surge from forming for one film or another. The film has to have broad support across the board and, for whatever reason, people push it to the top of their ballots. They do this because they fall in love with a movie or the people in the movie. They do this because they want to do a good deed with their vote.

As for Best Actress, right now it feels like it’s between Lady Gaga vs. Melissa McCarthy vs. Saoirse Ronan — whose performance in Mary Queen of Scots hasn’t been seen yet. Lady Gaga has the stuff the go all the way, according to a few people out of Toronto. If it gets Picture and Directing nominations, that will bode well for a Gaga win. Even if it doesn’t win the top prize the Best Actress award might be the film’s big win. I have been skeptical only because it’s a familiar remake that, no matter how good it is, voters will still see as “A Star is Born.” The enthusiasm for the film makes it pretty clear that it will be well liked across the board, even loved. Someone told me today they thought it could not lose because so many people loved it.

Best Actor also doesn’t have a clear and present frontrunner. Part of that is due to it being such a strong year for female ensembles, with films like The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Widows, Mary Queen of Scots, Roma — there aren’t as many contenders driven by strong male leads. One of those is most definitely Ryan Gosling in his best role to date as Neil Armstrong. Another is John David Washington in BlackKklansman. But there isn’t a Gary Oldman performance YET – at least, not until Christian Bale emerges as Dick Cheney. Willem Dafoe as Van Gogh may prove a strong contender. And, depending on whether the Academy is prepared to fully embrace Black Panther or not, Chadwick Boseman might find himself in the category. Hugh Jackman is fantastic as Gary Hart in The Front Runner and must be considered. Lucas Hedges has two films in the running, Boy Erased and Ben is Back. And of course, there’s always Robert Redford in his last film role to consider. There’s Matthew McConaughey in White Boy Rick. Finally, Viggo Mortensen looks to be crashing the party hard and is likely one of the five nominees.

Roma has already won an Oscar walking in the door with the Foreign Language prize. It’s just been announced as Mexico’s official entry, and that means it wins. What else it wins is not yet known.

The predictions game is useless fun, especially at this stage. I took a look at my predictions from last year around this time and of course, I had Emma Stone getting in for Battle of the Sexes. Shows you how much I knew.

My Best Picture predictions last year were:

Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Call Me by Your Name
Battle of the Sexes
The Post
Get Out
Ladybird
Mudbound
The Big Sick

I got 8 out of 9, which wasn’t bad. The other two I missed were (stupidly) Three Billboards, and late breaker Phantom Thread — but all in all, not bad. The rest of my predictions kind of blew – but hey, it was only September.

Let’s do this now, shall we? And see how wrong we’re going to be when we look back a year from now.

Best Picture

Strongest contenders right now 
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Green Book
BlackKklansman
Widows
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Contenders
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
Boy Erased
Black Panther

Not yet seen but expected to be good:
Vice
Mary Queen of Scots
Welcome to Marwen

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Contenders
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Steve McQueen, Widows
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Not yet seen:
Adam McKay, Vice
Robert Zemeckis, Welcome to Marwen

Best Actor
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back and Boy Erased
John David Washington, BlackKklansman
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun

Still to be seen:
Christian Bale, Vice
Steve Carell, Welcome to Marwen
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Viola Davis, Widows
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back

Not yet seen:
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

Supporting Actress
Claire Foy, First Man
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Not yet seen:
Amy Adams, Vice
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

Supporting Actor
Adam Driver, BlackKKlansman
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Jason Clarke, First Man
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Not yet seen:
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Donald Sutherland, Ad Astra

Take it all with a huge grain of salt, Oscar watchers. Have a great weekend.