Predictions Friday – Almost October, Still No Clear Frontrunners

American culture is thrust into chaos. It feels an awful lot like a civil war. The drama in play now with the Supreme Court and the presidency is surely going to captivate many of us heading into the mid-terms in November. The good news about that is that after November, the awards race might be back on track, as in, people will pay attention to it more than they likely are now. The poor New York Film Festival struggles to rise above the noise in the midst of what’s going on.

But the Oscar race is happening, whether people are paying attention to it or not. There is New York, and there are other fests upcoming, like North Carolina (beginning of October, their inaugural year), Savannah (end of October), Middleburg (end of October), and on and on it goes leading up the Oscar nominations. In the middle of all of this, there are parties and tributes and screenings. But so far, nothing has taken shape except how we who cover the race think it might go. It’s always a guess. Sometimes it’s right, sometimes not. Despite how much we’d love to predict the future, we can’t. No one can.

Annapurna is releasing Adam McKay’s Vice on Christmas, but there will be screenings before that. We haven’t seen Mary Queen of Scots or On the Basis of Sex. We know less than we think we do at this stage. We don’t have the nominees set, we don’t have frontrunners. We do, however, appear to have at least some contenders.

This year, the big studios seem to be more prominent than usual. Warner Bros. has A Star is Born, Universal has First Man and Green Book. Big Fox has Widows. Fox Searchlight has The Favourite and The Old Man & the Gun. Sony has The Front Runner. Disney has Black Panther. Focus has BlackKklansman and Mary Queen of Scots. Then there are the newbies, like Annapurna, which has Vice and If Beale Street Could Talk. Netflix enters the Oscar race in a big way with Roma.

The buzz for A Star is Born has taken the pundit world by storm. Tweets proclaiming it’s going to “make a lot of money” and “win a bunch of Oscars” are all over the place, and the excitement for it is palpable. Is it premature? Well, it always is in September.

It’s a weird thing, popularity, and buzz – it doesn’t have anything to do with how good a performance is. It is something one can’t describe. People are either paying attention or they aren’t.

To that end, I find it difficult to call the race right now because I have no idea what will happen, and neither does anyone else.

Last year around this time I embarrassingly had Darkest Hour out front. But I did have 8 out of the 9 correctly predicted, missing only Phantom Thread (yes, don’t make fun of me for having Wonder Wheel in there and Battle of the Sexes).

But here is a general idea of where I think it might go. Let’s go through it, shall we?

Best Picture
Frontrunners (in alphabetical order): A Star is Born, First Man, Green Book
Roma
BlackKklansman
The Favourite
Can You Ever Forgive Me
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows

Not yet seen:
Vice
Mary Queen of Scots
On the Basis of Sex
The Mule
Mary Poppins Returns

Contenders
The Front Runner
Black Panther
First Reformed
Eighth Grade
Leave No Trace

Best Actor
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
John David Washington, BlackKklansman
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Not yet seen:
Christian Bale, Vice
Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Contenders
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back/Boy Erased
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Best Actress
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Viola Davis, Widows
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back

Not yet seen:
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Contenders
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Chloe Sevigny, Lizzie
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave no Trace

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant , Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver, Blackkklansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns or Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Not yet seen
Adam McKay, Vice
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
Mimi Leder, On the Basis of Sex
Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Contenders
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Original Screenplay
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
Eighth Grade
First Reformed

Contenders
Vice (not yet seen)
On the Basis of Sex (not yet seen)
Ben is Back
Sorry to Bother You
Tully

Adapted Screenplay
 If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
Mary Queen of Scots (not yet seen)
Can You Ever Forgive Me
A Star is Born

Contenders
The Front Runner
BlacKkKlansman
Boy Erased
Leave No Trace

Cinematography
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could

Contenders
Mary Queen of Scots (not yet seen)

Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
BlackKlansman
Vice (not yet seen)

Production Design
First Man
Roma
The Favourite
Black Panther
Green Book

Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Mission Impossible

Sound Editing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Mission Impossible

Costume Design
The Favourite
BlacKKKlansman
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots (not yet seen)
On the Basis of Sex (not yet seen)

Those are about all I can muster at the moment. But we’ll give it another go next week.