Predictions Friday – Every Win Changes the Conversation

[Update – made a change or two here, added Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate as a contender in Best Actor and put A Star is Born back in cinematography …]

When I look back at this time last year, the post-Venice/Telluride/Toronto predictions, I see us getting pretty close, give or take a title or two. On our Oscar Squad (we’re trying to get that going for this year) chart, I had eight out of the eventual nine Best Picture nominees, only missing Phantom Thread.

But overall, in the other categories we were way off, thrown by a few titles that never got there and not noticing the ones that would end up getting there. Looking back, it’s easy to see just how wrong people can be. This is true across the board, by the way, because at this stage many of us are working from our own preferences since we have nothing else to go on.

In a 9/25 piece, the headline read: “Is it Christopher Nolan’s to lose?” That was before anyone realized Guillermo del Toro was about to take the whole season. Although the Shape of Water was one of my favorite films, it was not getting so much support from the pundit class, who were trying to steer the ship in a direction they wanted it to go. This is what I wrote from last year:

If Nolan is the frontrunner, then who else is up there in terms of consideration? Right now, Gold Derby has tapped the following five for Best Director in their expert’s predictions:

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Here are my own choices at the moment:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Jordan Peele, Get Out

So Gold Derby had just two out of five predicted. I had just three out of five. We were both missing Greta Gerwig (which seems stupid now, looking back) and, of course, Paul Thomas Anderson. Even if we could not have predicted PTA, we very well knew that Three Billboards had won in Toronto: thus, Martin McDonagh should have been on our radar somewhere. That win should have dramatically changed the conversation. It didn’t. When you look back at the recent winners of the People’s Choice award in Toronto, there is a pretty good bet that the winner will be in the conversation for Best Director. But McDonagh, as it turned out, was nominated only for the DGA. That mean 3BB had much less of a chance of winning Best Picture. The lack of an Oscar nod turned out to be a bigger deal than the lack of a SAG ensemble nod. Every year, every race is different, but big wins do change the conversation, especially when they beat other movies heading into the Oscar race.

Thus, Peter Farrelly is a pretty good bet to be at least in the conversation for Best Director. So I go over to Gold Derby and I look at Best Director:

Here is what Gold Derby has:
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Damien Chazelle, First Man
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

And here is what I have:
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Damien Chazelle, First Man
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
5. Peter Farrelly, Green Book

There is no way to tell right now whether we will right. In fact, Farrelly could be like McDonagh and get the DGA but not the Oscar nomination. Last year, Paul Thomas Anderson snuck in in the 11th hour and got a nomination because Phantom Thread was just that good. What movies and directors are we still waiting for?

Most notably:
Adam McKay, Vice
Bob Zemeckis, Welcome to Marwen
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

It all depends on what wins what, what shows up where. The critics are likely going to go all in for Roma and that will change the conversation.

Each new win changes the conversation. If someone is left off the very early Golden Globes list for director or screenplay, although it doesn’t mean everything, it changes the conversation. If a film misses out on the also early AFI Top 10 list? And it’s a high profile American film? You start to wonder about its longevity. If plenty of actors have seen a movie but none of the actors get SAG nominations? Well, that’s another thing to think about.

I have certain suspicions of where I think things MIGHT go, but I can’t really go out on a limb to predict those things. Not enough information is known. Not all movies have been seen. And each win changes the conversation.

But for the fun of it, here is a list of predictions today, working from minimal amount of info.

Best Picture

How do you build a Best Picture? As Anne Thompson always says, branch by branch. But when it comes to finding a winner, we look at, give or take, guild by guild. So which movies seem pretty good bets for PGA? DGA? SAG ensemble? WGA? ACE? Which movie will all or most of those? Will that matter is hard to say. What will be the film’s weak link in terms of those nominations?

We can’t possibly know at this point, that’s the truth. The only thing we know right now is that the largest group of people voting for an award so far (Toronto) chose Green Book over Roma, over First Man, over a Star Is Born. That puts Green Book in a position to be represented across the board.

Next in line will be First Man, which, in addition to acting, writing, and directing strengths (Oscar winners and nominees across the board), will also have other crafts guilds and societies nominating it. So it will show up in places none of the other movies at the top of the tree right now will, like production design, visual effects, and sound.

After that, Roma has directing and writing nominations locked up. It also is strong for cinematography and production design. Where it will need help is acting (no known stars) and overcoming being a foreign language film (not typically in the big guild noms).

Then we get to a Star Is Born, which will have the actors. It looks strong for acting, writing, directing nominations, and then, of course, sound mixing — which could come down to this vs. First Man.

Spike Lee looks good for a DGA nomination – BlackKklansman is not only politically important, but it’s also about time for Spike. And it’s a crowdpleaser. It looks good for a SAG ensemble nomination, but there are so many good ensembles this year, it’s going to be very competitive.

I think it looks like this for the top five:

Green Book
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
BlackKklansman

That’s the first tier, at least for now. After that, it also seems like these films might have traction:

The Favourite (SAG ensemble if there ever was one)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (WGA for sure, SAG noms)
Widows (SAG ensemble)
If Beale Street Could Talk (WGA for sure, maybe DGA, maybe SAG)

But without the movies we’re still waiting for, it’s nearly impossible to predict anything. Adam McKay’s Vice, but also Mary Queen of Scots or Welcome to Marwen. It’s impossible to see the whole picture right now.

Black Panther could be pushed, but it will take a village (never say never). It will need to be strong on writing, directing and acting nominations, and will also need anointing from the critics. If the Los Angeles film critics decide Black Panther is worthy of a Best Picture nomination, that could help it a great deal. But remember, this conversation often comes up with Pixar movies. None of them ever cracked Best Picture after they removed the ten nomination ballot (which they only had in 2009 and 2010). Not even for WALL-E.

It has to do with how the ballot is run. Five slots vs. ten slots. With the current system, a film has to be number one on a fair amount – around 200 ballots – to get in. Black Panther will no doubt get into the PGA, but Oscar remains a mystery. The critics would have to award Black Panther Best Picture over Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma. That seems a wee bit unlikely. But never say never.

Contenders:
Black Panther
The Front Runner
First Reformed
Leave No Trace
Eighth Grade

Best Actor
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
[keeping a spot for Christian Bale for Vice]
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
John David Washington, BlackKklansman
Ryan Gosling, First Man

Contenders
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased + Ben is Back
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Best Actress
[Holding a spot for Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots]
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Viola Davis, Widows

Contenders
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
[Holding a spot for Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns]
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
[Holding a spot for someone in Vice]

Contenders
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Jason Clarke, First Man
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Best Supporting Actress
[Holding a spot for Amy Adams in Vice]
[Holding a spot for Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots]
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Claire Foy, First Man
Emma Stone/Olivia Colman/Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Contenders:
Linda Cardellini, Green Book
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Contenders
[Holding a spot for Adam McKay, Vice]
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace

Documentary Feature
Active Measures
Reversing Roe
Free Solo
Watergate
Notorious RBG

Contenders
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Three Identical Strangers
Fahrenheit 11/9

Cinematography
First Man
Roma
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Contenders
Green Book
[Holding a spot for Mary Queen of Scots]
BlackKklansman
The Front Runner
Black Panther

Editing
First Man
BlackKklansman
Green Book
A Star Is Born
Roma

Original Screenplay
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
Eighth Grade
First Reformed

Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
Widows
BLackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me

Contenders
The Front Runner
A Star is Born
Boy Erased
Leave No Trace

Production Design
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
[Holding a spot for Mary Queen of Scots]
[Holding a spot for Mary Poppins Returns]

Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
[Holding a spot for Mary Poppins Returns]

Sound Editing
First Man
A Star is Born
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom

Costume Design
The Favourite
Green Book
[Holding a spot for Mary Poppins Returns]
[Holding a spot for Mary Queen of Scots]
[Holding a spot for Welcome to Marwen]

Original Score
First Man
Widows
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Sisters Brothers

Contenders
[Holding a place for Vice and Ad Astra]