The Oscar race is sort of, kind of taking shape. We really can’t know what it will be, though, until thousands of people vote. Critics will push for their favorites (as they always do), but a film can win every singe critics award, win even the Golden Globes, and not win the Oscar. No, we don’t know for sure until the PGA. And even then, sometimes we can’t be sure, as happened with La La Land. By this time, two years ago, La La Land was what A Star is Born seems to be right now. It’s hard to get a read on it, but you could say wildly popular but also a wee bit divisive. Divisive because of the hype. So when people go to see it, they either come out gushing or they come out shrugging. That was the case with La La Land and now, the case with A Star is Born.
The question to ask is, does it have any real competition? And if so, where is it coming from? With La La Land and A Star is Born, there was pressure by pundits to make it the frontrunner that couldn’t lose. The Titanic express, heading for massive Oscar sweep. So in a way, that served La La Land well. It won a lot of Oscars, including Best Director and Best Actress. La La Land was seen as Damien Chazelle’s singular vision. Thus, it was a no-brainer to predict him to win Best Director. With A Star is Born, how much of that movie will be considered Bradley Cooper’s singular vision? How much of it is just the familiar story often told? How much is the cinematographer’s? How much is Lady Gaga’s influence? It feels more like a collaborative effort than La La Land did. For one thing, it didn’t spring from Cooper’s imagination. Chazelle brought to life something that was in his head, whereas Cooper is bringing to life, or bringing back to life, something we all already know pretty well.
It made sense to predict La La Land to sweep because we were all leading with Best Director. With A Star is Born, are folks predicting Cooper to win? The answer is very clearly no, at least not over at Gold Derby. They are predicting Alfonso Cuaron to win his second Oscar for Roma. If he wins a second Oscar without winning Best Picture, he will be in Ang Lee/George Stevens territory. If the pundits are predicting Cuaron for Best Director and any other film but Roma to win Best Picture (which it easily could), then they are predicting a split for Picture and Director, which can be tricky when it comes to the preferential ballot: if Roma has all of the momentum to swing towards that major prize of Best Director, why would it then not be predicted for Best Picture? We just saw that happen last year with Guillermo del Toro and The Shape of Water.
There is the same sort of conundrum with Green Book, which beat A Star is Born and every other movie to win the audience award in Toronto. A crowdpleaser like no other, Green Book has so much going for it as a Best Picture contender, it’s hard not to put it in first place. But we have to wait for it to open to know for sure. It’s one of those films that, at least so far, no one walks away from not being won over by it. I’m sure people will be able to nitpick various elements, just as they can and do with every other movie. That it isn’t the frontrunner right now, but rather a stealthy dark horse, helps it. When you think about movies that matter you, think about movies with a message, or “Ye Auld Gravitas”. Which movies are “important” enough that voters will put them to the top of their ballots? Green Book, which maps a path forward for a divided America towards compassion, empathy, and unity, represents the kind of America we’re all reaching for — a harmonious one, not a divided one. It’s also hella entertaining. You smile, you laugh, you cry. It’s got it all. But Peter Farrelly as a Best Director contender is the stumbling block.
We look at Best Director two ways: 1) Can a popular film win the DGA, like say Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born, even if he probably isn’t going to win the Oscar in directing? 2) Are we going to believe that 15,000 DGA members will watch Roma? Maybe. Hard to say, though. Cooper and Farrelly and even Chazelle seem like better bets for the DGA. The Oscar is a different story. Farrelly and Cooper will easily land DGA nods. But will they both land Oscar nods?
There is another scenario not being predicted anywhere and that’s the Spike Lee factor. If Spike Lee is finally nominated after almost 30 years, how does he not win? How does the sentiment not shift in his favor, to award him not only for BlackKklansman, but for his entire career, become the first ever black director to win Best Director in 90 years of Oscar history? I’m starting to wonder if he isn’t the one to watch for Best Director. If it happens, you heard it here first, friends. I’m almost tempted to predict it but I need more intel on how that movie plays with the industry overall. Will they give a second Oscar to Cuaron rather than a first ever to Spike Lee? I’m not so sure, particularly with the new members in the Academy, with Spike being the mentor for many of them and a pioneer in black filmmaking. Keep that one in the front of your minds. He needs to just win a major award (we know he’s not going to win the Globe) to get the momentum and sentiment going.
In that way, I’m not sure where we are with Best Picture. I’m mot 100% sold on A Star is Born taking it all the way home, but I also know it can’t be ignored, Dan. I’m wondering about Roma, First Man, and most especially, the crowdpleaser of the year, Green Book.
Let’s get on to predictions, shall we?
Best Picture – Frontrunners
A Star is Born/Roma/Green Book
First Man
BlackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows
Vice
Contenders
Black Panther
The Front Runner
8th Grade
First Reformed
Leave No Trace
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born/Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Christian Bale, Vice
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Contenders
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
Viola Davis, Widows
Contenders
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Chloe Sevigny, Lizzie
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave no Trace
Charlize Theron, Tully
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Contenders
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Calire Foy, First Man
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Contenders
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Contenders
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Cinematography
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Editing
First Man
Roma
The Front Runner
A Star is Born
Can You Ever Forgive Me
BlackKklansman
Original Screenplay
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Contenders
Ben is Back, Peter Hedges
Sorry to Bother You, Boots Riley
Tully, Diablo Cody
Adapted Screenplay
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Josh Singer, First Man
Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen, Widows
Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, A Star is Born
Contenders
Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace
Production Design
First Man
Black Panther
Roma
The Favourite
Green Book
Contenders
Crazy Rich Asians
The Front Runner
Can You Ever Forgive Me
BlacKKKlansman
Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Roma
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Contenders
Mission Impossible: Fallout
The Favourite
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Avengers: Infinity War
Solo
Deadpool 2
Sound Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Contenders
The Favourite
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Solo
Deadpool 2
Costume Design
The Favourite
Black Panther
Roma
Mary Queen of Scots
Mary Poppins Returns
Contenders
First Man
On the Basis of Sex
The Front Runner
BlacKKKlansman
Visual Effects
First Man
Annilhilation
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Original Score
First Man, Justin Hurwitz
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Widows, Hans Zimmer
Vice, Nicholas Britell