Predictions Friday: The Mysteries of the Unseen Remain

It’s not all that worthwhile trying to call an Oscar race when the story isn’t all the way told, and the story for Oscars 2019 isn’t. With a few high profile films still outstanding, some categories remain uncertain. Late breakers like The Mule, Mary Queen of Scots, On the Basis of Sex, and maybe Welcome to Marwen add a question mark to the end of the sentence. Are they going to be good? How good? Do they disrupt the major categories? Most are holding a place for Christian Bale, and a few are certain a movie about Ruth Bader Ginsburg has to be Oscar worthy THIS year, right? Hard to say. Building a consensus now, with the shorter season, takes time. Critics will mostly gather around a few of their favorites from earlier in the year. If voters don’t see the movies (they’ll see them, for sure) or there isn’t sufficient time to build buzz and momentum it becomes more and more difficult to squeeze them in.

High profile films can come in right at the end and still make an impact. The Big Short was one of those. Wolf of Wall Street another. But it’s harder and a bigger risk. The films that tend to do well have early starts, as do the winners in all of the major categories since they made the season so short. Big stars like Meryl Streep and Leo DiCaprio have no problem crashing the party late. People will always eagerly await, and hold a place for, anything they do. Both of them won with late breaking entries into the race. For the most part, though, let’s say 80 to 85 percent of them are set in stone early or early-ish, their momentum slowly building until it’s all a done deal. I could probably prove this by listing each year and each category – but I don’t have time right now to do that. A quick glance at the supporting categories tells me I’m right. But it would be interesting to build a chart to prove it. Maybe at some point later on.

I call this the girl-next-door idea. You live next door to her, you know her well, you trust and like her and eventually marry her. As opposed to the girl who flies in from out of town – is unpredictable and mysterious but a forever stamp is not as sure a bet; it’s a risk. All the better to stick with the one you know for sure is a keeper. It’s not a perfect metaphor, and has a little bit of creepy around the edges but you get the idea.

Or it’s just that early contenders have the backing of a dutiful publicist who puts them in the right place at the right time to ensure support. Whatever the reason, it is what it is. I bring this up because I have been wondering about Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots for some time, whether she could pull off a Supporting Actress win. She has that girl-of-the-moment thing going for her and she’s shown her versatility, and she almost won last year. But it’s coming in so late I am not sure you can build momentum that way. On the other hand, who else is there taking the lead? So far, it looks like the predicting community is down for Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. King could easily win the SAG and thus, the Oscar.

Are there any other names being bandied about? Well, some are pushing for Emily Blunt to get in for A Quiet Place as supporting? Emma Stone is in it for The Favourite, no doubt. Claire Foy could win for First Man. She could win the Golden Globe.  There is Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased. There is potentially Linda Cardellini for Green Book. This is mostly a year for actresses, not so much for supporting actresses, interestingly enough, unless a few break through in the last part of the year, like Amy Adams in Vice.

Supporting Actor does seem like a near lock for Mahershala Ali, at least right now, at least for a nomination. The others are Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy, Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman and Sam Elliot, A Star is Born. Elliot could rise up and win the thing, you know, it’s not outside the realm of possibility. An old timer character actor beloved in Hollywood finally wins. But there is also a potential late breaker of Sam Rockwell in Vice (though he won last year so…).

But there aren’t, as far as I can tell, any hard frontrunners in any of the categories. I would say this was a wide open race in all respects and that anything could happen and it would not be that surprising. Black Panther could even rise up as a major contender in all categories, to make up for the popular film category debacle and it would not be surprising.  I guess the thing that would be surprise me the most is if a late breaking film – one that isn’t seen until November or December, won Best Picture.

Onward to predictions, such as they are:

Best Picture
A Star is Born
Green Book
Roma
First Man
The Favourite
Can You Ever Forgive Me
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKKKlansman
First Reformed
Vice
Alt. Black Panther

Best Actor
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Christian Bale, Vice
Ryan Gosling, First Man
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman

Contenders
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Behemian Rhapsody
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick

Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Viola Davis, Widows
Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Contenders
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Charlize Theron, Tully
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born

Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Calire Foy, First Man
Emma Stone, The Favourite

Contenders
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave no Trace
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Contenders
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Original Screenplay
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Vice, Adam McKay
First Reformed, Paul Schrader

Adapted Screenplay
A Star is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
First Man, Josh Singer
Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
Widows, Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen

Cinematography
Roma
First Man
A Star is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk

Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Green Book
Vice

Production Design
The Favourite
Black Panther
Roma
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns

Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Mary Poppins Returns

Sound Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Black Panther
A Quiet Place

Costume Design
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
BlacKKKlansman
Black Panther

Visual Effects
First Man
Annilhilation
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Deadpool 2
Solo

Original Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Sisters Brothers
Widows
The Incredibles 2

That’s it for now. We wait, we watch. We wait, we watch.