Best Actor – So Many Strong Performances Makes for a Real Competition [Poll]

There have been so many leading male performances worthy of an Oscar win this year, starting with Chadwick Boseman as the stoic newly appointed Black Panther, ruler of Wakanda. Ethan Hawke as a priest wrestling with the meaning of life in First Reformed. Willem Dafoe won Best Actor for his work in one of the year’s best films, At Eternity’s Gate. Very quickly Bradley Cooper earned praise for directing and starring in A Star is Born. Then Viggo Mortensen starred in Green Book which surprised everyone by winning in Toronto, beating A Star is Born, Roma and every other movie. Ryan Gosling turned in his finest performance to date as Neil Armstrong in Damien Chazelle’s heart-stopping First Man.

John David Washington in BlackKklansman. Rami Malek not only stunned in Bohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury, but the film topped the box office. Lucas Hedges in two films, Ben is Back where he plays an addict trying to get clean in one awful night, and in Boy Erased where he plays a young man whose parents send him to gay conversion therapy. Steve Carell, Ben Foster, and Hugh Jackman as Gary Hart in The Front Runner. We are exploding with Best Actor contenders, almost as bad as Best Actress.

Then came Christian Bale as Dick Cheney in Adam McKay’s Vice, a performance so good it practically leaves everything else Bale has done in the dust. How do you know it’s a threat? Well, the whisper campaigns are starting up everywhere – “it’s just the makeup,” people say. That’s a good one. That’s right out of the old Weinstein playbook. They tried it with Gary Oldman too and look at that how that turned out.

The truth is that this year is horseshit all over the road. We have no earthly idea how it’s going to turn out. We keep getting knocked back a step or two every day. Although we do have the New York Film Critics, the National Board of Review coming up here at the end of November, we still might not know what the state of things are after they announce. The critics will drive the race in a certain direction – but nothing is going to really tell us how the Oscars are going to go until we get into the Globes, the SAGs, the PGAs, the DGAs, etc. The critics are only a part of the story, not the whole story.

We know that Best Actor wins generally come from two pathways. The first and most common is that they come from Best Picture nominees. Which films do we think might pair up with Best Actor nominees?

What has been the average since 2009 when they expanded the ballot?

2017 – 4/5 – including the winner
2016 – 4/5 – including the winner
2015 – 2/5 – including the winner
2014 – 4/5 – including the winner
2013 – 5/5 – including the winner
2012 – 3/5 – including the winner
2011 – 3/5 – including the winner
2010 – 4/5 – including the winner
2009 – 2/5 – NOT INCLUDING the WINNER

The average appears to be 4/5 Best Actor contenders are in Best Picture nominees. Of course, this is not a hard and fast rule. Look at 2009 and 2015 – only two names were from Best Picture contenders.

The other way is when they like the actor – the actor is way overdue and they want to see him finally win. This has only happened once in the era of the expanded ballot but used to happen a lot – with Paul Newman, for example.

Much depends on their “Oscar story.” What is their career path so far that would make people want to vote for them out of everyone else? Who are they rooting for and why? Is it really just the finest performance of the year, like a Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln? Is it someone who has been charming during the whole season that everyone has fallen in love with, like Roberto Benigni? Is it a character people fall in love with, like Jean Dujardin in The Artist?

Bradley Cooper’s Oscar story is that he’s an actor who made the leap to director and made good. He plays drunk and falling apart for the first time and does it really well. He’s very well liked in the industry and in the public. Everyone is rooting for him.

Christian Bale’s Oscar story is that he’s one of the finest actors in the industry who only has a Supporting Actor win, no Lead Actor win yet. For a guy who works as hard as he does, that’s sort of shocking.

Rami Malek’s Oscar story is that he’s gone from TV star to morphing seamlessly into Freddie Mercury.

Chadwick Boseman’s Oscar story is that he’s an up and comer to be reckoned with – but his win would signify a big win for Black Panther. Hugh Jackman has never won. Lucas Hedges has never won.

Willem Dafoe is that brilliant character actor who has never won an Oscar and who is scary overdue. Is that enough to get him in?

Which of our Best Actor contenders could possibly be in Best Picture contenders?

Sure bets
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

The “Likely Best Picture contender nominees but not sure bets”
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Christian Bale, Vice

The Question Marks but Leaning towards Maybe
John David Washington, BlackKklansman
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther

The Could Be Nominated without Best Picture
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

So once again we must turn to the Golden Globes to see how they might help clarify things. Can any of these folks be put in “Musical/Comedy”? Well, Viggo can from Green Book. And of course, Christian Bale can for Vice. That means that the Globes can give Best Actor to both Bradley Cooper AND Christian Bale. That won’t help clarify much.

The way I see it right now, which isn’t very reliable considering this has been one very difficult year to predict, is probably something like:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

With very close competition for that fifth slot from:
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
John David Washington, BlackKklansman

Everyone else is floating around as a maybe too. It’s a crazy year. What think you, Oscar watchers?

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