Predictions Friday: A Whole Lotta Shaking Going On (Except Not)

All quiet on the Oscar front as so many people fret the upcoming midterms. No one can breathe. No one can think. If you don’t live in America then you’re lucky you don’t have to fret them. For us, it is a matter of saving the world or watching it burn. This is a bipartisan fear, by the way. There are plenty of people on the right are rooting for Democrats to grab some power to turn the tide here in our growing fascist country.

So how can anyone think about Oscars at a time like this? On the Basis of Sex had its first screening last night and there were a few tweets about it.

Q&A for #onthebasisofsex #ruthbaderginsburg #armiehammer #felicityjones great movie, definitely a must see… due out in late December pic.twitter.com/5bgIHJqfV9

— Zack Varkaris (@ZackVarkaris) November 2, 2018

Applause throughout tonight’s SAG nom comm screening of “On the Basis of Sex.” Movie plays.

— Kristopher Tapley (@kristapley) November 2, 2018

I’m not really sure why these were the only tweets I could find, but perhaps there is a strict embargo in place. Either way, I woke up in San Antonio as part of a long cross-country drive to Savannah, Georgia and back. I don’t hit Los Angeles until Sunday. It’s hard to tell how On the Basis of Sex will fit into the race at this point. I know that a lot of people assume it will be big, considering the love for Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the success of the documentary, RBG, but it’s one of those wait and see things.

Adding to that, Rosamund Pike in A Private War is causing some rumblings, though I’m not sure they are enough to break through the already packed Best Actress race. To pierce the bubble, a contender would need support from the critics heading into Oscar season. Where that will land is hard to say but if we’re already making room for Olivia Colman in The Favourite, how then do we also make room for others? On the other hand, the Golden Globes divide between drama and comedy and something tells me that Pike and Felicity Jones for On the Basis of Sex might have a chance to build some momentum that way.

How might the Golden Globes divide for Best Actress? Making things even more confusing, Gold Derby has Melissa McCarthy in drama. So that really only opens up one slot for another. Let’s start with what we think we know:

Globes Best Actress — Drama predictions:
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Viola Davis, Widows
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Which of these five can be replaced by Felicity Jones or Rosamund Pike or whomever else? Saoirse Ronan in Mary Queen of Scots? Tough call.

It should be pointed out that this year “feels” different from previous years, at least to me. I don’t think we should see it as set. I do feel that it continues to be wide open, both in terms of winners and nominees. That is not always the case. This time last year we knew who our acting frontrunners were, give or take. We sort of know now — the pundits see it like this:

Best Actor — they say, Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born, I say Viggo Mortensen for Green Book
Best Actress — they say, Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born, I say probably Lady Gaga but Glenn Close and Melissa McCarthy are in the thick of it as well.
Supporting Actor — Mahershala Ali seems to have a growing consensus for Green Book.
Supporting Actress — Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk seems to have the lead.

But there is wiggle room across the board for anything to happen and we should all be mindful of that. Looking back at last year’s predictions, they were mostly right but not 100%. Willem Dafoe was still in first place for The Florida Project, with Sam Rockwell right behind him. Otherwise, the acting frontrunners were set. Best Picture still felt up in the air, though I had Shape of Water in second place. I was dead on wrong about Original Screenplay and I always underestimated Lady Bird from the start. We all have our blind spots.

Unanswered questions remain:

1. Will the Academy overcome their genre bias and fully embrace Black Panther? No question the film deserves to be included but traditionally, it doesn’t make it onto the ballot because voters only have five choices, so 200 or so people must put the film as their number one to get it in. And this year, they just very well might do that, after the michegoss about the popular film question.
2. How will the mood of the country play into which movies resonate and which ones don’t?
3. Will popular films have more consideration overall than they would have otherwise? Crazy Rich Asians, for instance? Mary Poppins Returns?
4. Is this going to be a significant breakthrough year for black film directors?

I will make an attempt at calling this race, though again, there are still some question marks for films not seen, like Vice and Mary Queen of Scots. The thing that has become clear to me is that Black Panther WILL likely win a bunch of Oscars, probably in the Costume Design/Production Design/Visual Effects area.

With all that being said, here are updated predictions:

Best Picture
A Star Is Born
Green Book
Roma
First Man
BlacKKKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows

Contenders
First Reformed
Black Panther
The Front Runner
8th Grade
Leave No Trace

Best Actor
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ryan Gosling, First Man
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Contenders
Rami Malek, Behemian Rhapsody
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Christian Bale, Vice

Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows

Contenders
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Rosamund Pike, A Current War
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Charlize Theron, Tully

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

Contenders
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Claire Foy, First Man
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Amy Adams, Vice

Contenders
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave no Trace
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Danai Gurira, Black Panther

Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Contenders
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Adam McKay, Vice
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Original Screenplay
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
First Reformed, Paul Schrader

Contenders
Vice, Adam McKay
Ben is Back, Peter Hedges
Sorry to Bother You, Boots Riley
Tully, Diablo Cody

Adapted Screenplay
A Star is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
First Man, Josh Singer
Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
Widows, Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen

Contenders
The Front Runner, Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman
Boy Erased, Joel Edgerton
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Leave No Trace, Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

Cinematography
Roma
A Star Is Born
First Man
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk

Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Green Book
BlackKklansman

Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
Roma
First Man
Crazy Rich Asians

Sound Mixing
A Star Is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Mission Impossible: Fallout

Sound Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
A Quiet Place

Costume Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
On the Basis of Sex

Visual Effects
Black Panther
First Man
Annilhilation
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Mary Poppins Returns

Makeup and Hair
The Favourite
Black Panther
BlacKKKlansman

Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Ralph Breaks the Internet
And some other

Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Free Solo
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Science Fair

Foreign Language Feature
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)