Predictions Friday: Will Spike Lee Make DGA History?

The DGA will announce its winners tomorrow night. While it seems like no one else can win but Alfonso Cuaron (and thus will take home his second DGA win after winning for Gravity), there is a potential wave building for Spike Lee to become the first black director to win in DGA history, and potentially Oscar history. While this does seem like a long shot, Lee is definitely second-in-line to take home the trophy tomorrow night, the reason being that BlacKkKlansman is, at the moment, the stats champ. As in:

BlacKkKlansman hasn’t won anything lately, but maybe that’s because it keeps going up against Black Panther and therefore votes are splitting in that regard. Alfonso Cuaron won the Golden Globe for Roma, setting him up as the frontrunner to win tomorrow too.

It is worth noting that if people are paying attention — REALLY PAYING ATTENTION — to what is going on this year, which can’t be called anything other than a renaissance for black filmmakers) — is it really true that no black director can win, even in a year like this? At the same time, it’s hard to make the case that Cuaron should not win for his masterpiece Roma. It’s such a beautiful film, such a beautiful marriage between his talents as a director and his talents as a cinematographer. It’s a triumph on every level. By contrast, BlacKkKlansman, were it to come close to winning, would be as groundbreaking a Best Picture winner as the Oscars have seen in a long time, going all the way back to the 1970s. Here, you have a revolutionary filmmaker in Spike Lee.

When Spike Lee was coming up in Hollywood, he had a clear choice: make movies that the mostly white industry would respond to, perhaps get into the Oscar game – or make movies his way, the Spike Lee way, holding on to his authentic voice, telling his stories the way he wants to tell them. In so doing, the “Spike Lee Joint” was born. Without compromising, here Lee is, on the brink of making history. And the Academy, the industry, has finally come to him — he didn’t have to go to them. That makes Lee’s presence here in this race exciting. Beyond exciting. Imagine what it would feel like if he actually won.

There are some other options here. There’s the Ben Affleck rule of determining Best Picture without a Best Director nomination at the Oscars. In this case, Peter Farrelly could win for Green Book, or even Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born. Both could win and potentially give us our de facto Best Picture winner. But in all likelihood, it’s Cuaron’s to lose.

Our predictions are as follows:

Best Director
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman — Ryan Adams, Marshall Flores, Jazz Tangcay
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma – Sasha Stone

Best First-Time Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade — Adams

Documentary
Free Solo — Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Hale County, This Morning This Evening — Stone

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