Early Look at the Best Actor Race

Now that the Oscars have been pushed up by almost a month, the talk about them is going to have to happen sooner rather than later. Ordinarily, the conversation starts in earnest after Telluride in September, but one has to consider that it will have to shift a bit. In my experience, the earlier date from March to February meant that Oscar campaigns for wins had to start relatively early in the year and push on through towards the end. That isn’t strictly true, especially if there is conflicting intel offered up. That was most definitely the case last year when both the hive mind dismissed Bohemian Rhapsody on almost every level, from activists to critics — so much so that Rami Malek really flew under the radar until he and the film started winning stuff. Early on, Bradley Cooper was hotly buzzed to take the top prize for A Star Is Born, even though Yours Truly warned of actor/directors actually winning for acting. They rarely do. But that didn’t stop the chatter.

Other early bets included Viggo Mortensen in Green Book and the sight unseen Christian Bale in Vice. Willem Dafoe was a Venice entry for At Eternity’s Gate, but there was more buzz for Ethan Hawke in First Reformed. In the end, Dafoe got the nomination. Rami Malek scored an easy win after Bohemian Rhapsody performed so well, against expectations by the hive mind that pays attention to awards. Just remember that happened, folks. We can’t pretend it didn’t.

Now, because of Malek’s win, all eyes are on Taron Egerton for his Elton John portrayal in Rocketman. The jury is out on whether the film will compare to Bohemian Rhapsody in terms of how much the public and industry loves it. Malek had a firm fan base heading into the awards, which helped push him to the top. Egerton is being seriously discussed as one of the ultimate five. Right alongside him is another Cannes contender, Antonio Banderas in Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory.

But remember, Best Actor is married to Best Picture. While it isn’t 100% perfect, it’s still a pretty good way to predict how this category will go. Films that do well with not just the Oscars but with people overall, everywhere in the world, tend to be male-driven, or Best Actor driven. Films that are female-driven are the exception, not the rule:

Green Book — Viggo Mortensen
The Shape of Water — N/A
Moonlight — three male leads splitting up but for Best Actor, N/A
Spotlight — ensemble of mostly male actors, no real lead, N/A
Birdman — Michael Keaton
12 Years a Slave — Chiwetel Ejiofor
Argo — Ben Affleck
The Artist — Jean DuJardin
The King’s Speech — Colin Firth
The Hurt Locker — Jeremy Renner
Slumdog Millionaire — Dev Patel
No Country for Old Men — Josh Brolin
The Departed — Leonardo DiCaprio
Brokeback Mountain — Heath Ledger
Etc…

And, of course, the Best Actor winners in the era of the expanded ballot are almost always in Best Picture nominees:

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Often, the pundits will presume a film won’t make it into Best Picture and that means the actor won’t win. But when a film like Dallas Buyers Club makes it into Best Picture, that’s when you know the actor is a major threat to win, as it happened last year with Bohemian Rhapsody and Rami Malek. When I am predicting Best Actor, I always look at the film’s Best Picture chances alongside it. It matters much less with Best Actress.

Anne Thompson over at Indiewire has laid out her early look at how Best Actor might go down. Here is how she sees it, with the caveat that she only lists performances she’s actually seen as frontrunners:

Frontrunners:
Antonio Banderas (“Pain & Glory”)
Willem Dafoe (“The Lighthouse”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Adam Driver (“The Report”)
Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”)

Contenders:
Christian Bale (“Ford v. Ferrari”)
Timothee Chalamet (“The King”)
Matt Damon (“Ford v. Ferrari”)
Robert De Niro (“The Irishman”)
August Diehl (“A Hidden Life”)
Adam Driver (Untitled Noah Baumbach Project)
Ansel Elgort (“The Goldfinch”)
Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Queen & Slim”)
John Lithgow (“Fair and Balanced”)
Mark Ruffalo (“Dry Run”)
Ian McKellen (“The Good Liar”)
Will Smith (“Gemini Man”)
Edward Norton (“Motherless Brooklyn”)
Dev Patel (“The Personal History of David Copperfield”)
Jonathan Pryce (“The Pope”)

Anne knows her stuff, and it’s a pretty good list. But you really do have to look at Best Picture too. I’m gonna guess that Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time is a shoo in because the film itself seems poised to take the Oscars by storm. I am a little less certain that Taron Egerton is a shoo-in or that Rocketman will be good enough to make it in. Probably? These voters are mostly boomers and they all love Elton John — but more than that, that he sings his own songs and that there is graphic gay sex (I have heard tell of this, I have not yet seen the film) will make it somewhat groundbreaking and thus, give it a better shot.

In looking over Anne’s story, what stands out to me would be Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. So I would probably shift my own list to put Robert De Niro up higher on the contenders list. I would do this because of Scorsese and his Oscar history, although noting to myself that the de-aging thing is going to present a problem for actors who are not all that keen on having their faces messed with using visual effects (and that actors rule the Academy, so…).

What I also look at is which studio is behind the film, what the film is about (true stories, real-life figures tend to do better), and finally the actor’s stature in the industry: well-respected? Already won an Oscar?

To that end, I would take note of Ian McKellen (who has never won an Oscar, believe it or not) in Bill Condon’s The Good Liar (Warner Bros.). I would definitely make note of Tom Hanks in Marielle Heller’s Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony), Mark Ruffalo in Todd Haynes’ Try Run (Focus), Adam Driver in Noah Baumbauch’s untitled film for Netflix, etc. I’m not 100% sold yet on Ford v. Ferrari in terms of bravura acting – will Matt Damon and Christian Bale cancel each other out? I guess we’ll have to wait and see on that.

All of these factors considered, and with a grain of salt, I would reconfigure Anne’s list to look like this:

Frontrunners (in no particular order at the moment):
Sir Ian McKellen (“The Good Liar”)
Antonio Banderas (“Pain & Glory”)
Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”)
Robert De Niro (“The Irishman”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)

Contenders:
Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”)
Willem Dafoe (“The Lighthouse”)
Adam Driver (“The Report”)
Christian Bale (“Ford v. Ferrari”)
Timothee Chalamet (“The King”)
Matt Damon (“Ford v. Ferrari”)
August Diehl (“A Hidden Life”)
Adam Driver (Untitled Noah Baumbach Project)
Ansel Elgort (“The Goldfinch”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Queen & Slim”)
John Lithgow (“Fair and Balanced”)
Mark Ruffalo (“Dry Run”)
Will Smith (“Gemini Man”)
Edward Norton (“Motherless Brooklyn”)
Dev Patel (“The Personal History of David Copperfield”)
Jonathan Pryce (“The Pope”)