Predictions Friday — Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

I’d rather she give us the version we got, if only for the theater-going experience–which, Jesus Christ.

“Little Women making the top ten is laughable”. Looks like you were wrong about Cats and Richard Jewel. I Don’t need advice from Narcissists.

And there it is Critics Choice “BEST EDITING” and “BEST DIRECTOR” and “Best Cinematography”. “1917” Should’ve also won Picture and Score, but was the runner up there I’m sure

My predications for the big categories below. What a year for film. I liked most of what I saw this year, but I loved Joker, JoJo Rabbit, and 1917 so I am hoping those do well.

BEST PICTURE

1917
Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Parasite
The Irishman
Joker
JoJo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Ford v. Ferrari
Little Women
Bombshell

One to seven seems locked, after that it could be a number of movies. I would love for The Two Popes to get in, but I just can’t see Netflix getting three at this point. I personally think Toy Story 4 should have been in the discussion all year, but that ship has long sailed.

BEST DIRECTOR

Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory

The first four seem locked in, but that fifth spot is anyone’s guess. My personal vote would go to Todd Phillips (Joker) who I think created an exceptional film that is nearly perfect. That said, I’m just not sure the directors voting for this category are quite open-minded enough to nominate a “superhero movie” from the guy who directed The Hangover trilogy (even though it is sooo not a superhero movie). Taika Waititi is also deserving in my book, but again I’m not sure this group goes for his kind of movie. Noah Baumbach is a possibility, but I don’t think Netflix is getting two here. Greta Gerwig could get in, especially with the constant reminder that this category has been all male all season, but I don’t see this group giving her a nod just because of that criticism (not that I think she is undeserving). That leaves Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory). Given his film is personal and about a director and there is a growing international presence in this voting block, I’ll go with him.

BEST ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Awkwafina, The Farewell

The top three seem solid. The last two could be Nyong’o or Awkwafina or could include Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) or Cynthia Erivo (Harriet). I went with Nyong’o given her successful history with the academy and Awkwafina given the bump from her Globe win. Ronan feels a little late to the party and Erivo’s movie hasn’t been as well received as Us or The Farewell.

BEST ACTOR

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name

Maybe it’s more of a No Guts, No Glory pick at this point, but I think Eddie sneaks in. His “comeback” storyline has peaked at the right time. The only question is whether or not he bumps DiCaprio or Bale. Bale feels like the safer bet to miss out, but my gut is telling me it’s DiCaprio. It seems crazy given he has hit everywhere all season, but it feels like Once has become Tarantino and Pitt’s show where as Ford is firmly Bale’s at this point. I also think DiCaprio has been taken for granted more than once by this body (I still cannot understand how he doesn’t have the Oscar for The Wolf of Wall Street or nominations for numerous other performances) and I think they make the same mistake here. Bale could very well miss too for Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), and it pains me not to be able to list Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes), but in such a tremendous year, I couldn’t.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

Given Scarlet Johansson is getting in Lead, I have her missing here. I just have a feeling voters may want to spread the wealth rather than give her two nominations in one year. I went with Pugh who is coming on strong lately and Kidman who has SAG and is just doing some great work in recent years. One of the Parasite ladies is possible, but I’m not sure any single one of them stood out from their cast mates enough to earn a nomination. Other possibilities like Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Annette Bening (The Report), and Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell) just don’t seem to have enough broader support for their films to climb in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Song Kang Ho, Parasite
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

This was a tough category to pick. In some ways I feel like Pitt and one of The Irishman guys are the only locks (although I have no idea which one they would go for over the other). That said, I am sticking with both Irishmen and Kang Ho and Hanks to join them and Pitt. Song Kang Ho seems to be coming on strong and I think Parasite’s ensemble SAG nomination bodes well for him here. The last spot was a toss up between Hanks and Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes). I went with Hanks in the end. His movie has been lost in the mix a bit this season, but I went with him playing a beloved real life figure over Hopkins (who was great) playing a more controversial one.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Parasite
Marriage Story
1917
Knives Out

I feel pretty confident in those first four. The fifth slot could be Booksmart, The Farewell, or Knives Out. I went with Knives Out because it is more in play elsewhere (potential surprises in Actress or Picture) and it’s a fun, clever script that voters will appreciate. If one of the first four misses, I think it’s 1917 because its script could be dwarfed by the film’s technical achievements. If that is the case, I think Booksmart gets in over The Farewell.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

JoJo Rabbit
The Irishman
Little Women
Joker
The Two Popes

These five feel pretty solid to me. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is another possibility, but it feels like a movie that has been lost in the mix given how many great films there are this year. I think The Two Popes gets in over it. The Two Popes is fantastic and may miss elsewhere given the strength of other categories (Supporting Actor, Actor, Picture). This feels like a place to give it some acknowledgement.

Ang Lee is a visionary… the only film by him that gets me angry, is Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. I saw it after reading the Tao Te Ching, by Lao Tzu, and I thought it was a watered down version for western sensibilities, a “Taoism for dummies” in which the fight scenes felt clumsy rather than stylish (I compare it to Zhang Yimou’s masterpiece, “Hero”, which showed me what Lee could have done).

My Ang Lee top 5 films…

1. The Wedding Banquet
2. The Ice Storm
3. Brokeback Mountain
4. Eat Drink Man Woman
5. Life of Pi

Caught up with 1917, Bombshell, Uncut Gems, and Richard Jewell. My personal thoughts:

1917: I really wanted to love it, but I just liked it. It certainly went by fast and was a technical achievement. McKay is stellar and deserving. But I can’t say the story did much for me. And hours removed from seeing me, it hasn’t really stuck with me at all, once that initial rush wore off.

Uncut Gems: I had really mixed feelings going in. And even for the first 30 minutes. But I loved it. Sandler was great – his character was fully lived in. It gave me a lot to think about, and is one of my Top 3 or 4 for the year.

Richard Jewell: Pleasantly surprised. I’ve been very lukewarm on Eastwood films of late. And it’s not great per se, but I thought it was his best film in awhile and solid throughout. Three strong performances.

Bombshell: Great acting, of course, and I enjoyed watching it. But it did feel like one of Roach’s HBO movies. Nothing particularly wrong, but just had that feel of a teleplay of a high profile story, a la Game Change.

Uncut Gems is probably the only one in my Top 10. I suppose 1917 would be close, but not sure it’d be in there if it was my ballot.

Banderas was not in SAG 5, Egerton was.

the only 2 big problems with The Irishman are… he should have used body doubles at some scenes, and its running time… I am unsure how many voters are actually going to see the whole thing.

How old are you Patrick dear? My readings tell me you aren’t past the age of 25. As a psychic I always give advice and teachings to those that are still learning about how life and the Oscars work. You have a lot to learn in this life. Did you know The Hurt Locker was a failure at the box-office? It won best picture and 5 other statues. Little Women making the top 10 is laughable. Oscar only nominates 5. Cats is also getting top 10s, and my knitting club predicts the musical is getting more nominations then Greta Gerwig’s 108th version of a novel only available in public libraries.

I think it will get the nom. It scored at WGA

You’re missing supporting actor.

It’s a really, really good film from the always reliable Mendes but to me it’s nowhere near the brilliance of Parasite, The Irishman and Once Upon A Time… In Hollywood. I think Tarantino’s instant classic of a film is going to get Best Picture at the end of the day and it would make for a really deserving winner as far as I’m concerned if it does. I guess we have to wait and see how this awards season unfolds. If 1917 continues to surprise with major awards wins, then it could very much end up winning both Picture and Director.

Here my predictions (just the main categories)
-Best Picture :
1) Once Upon a time in Hollywood
2) 1917
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) The Irishman
5) Joker
6) Marriage Story
7) Ad Astra
8) The Farewell
9) Little Women
10) Ford v Ferrari

-Director :
1) Scorsese
2) Mendes
3) Tarantino
4) Bong
5) Gerwig

-Actor :
1) Phoenix
2) Driver
3) Egerton
4) DiCaprio
5) Bale

-Actress :
1) Johansson
2) Zellweger
3) Erivo
4) Roinan
5) Awkwafina

Supp. Actor :
1) Pitt
2) Pesci
3) Hanks
4) Pacino
5) Dafoe

-Supp Actress :
1) Dern
2) Lopez
3) Bening
4) Shaotzen
5) Pugh

-O. Screenplay :
1) Tarantino
2) Baumbach
3) Bong
4) Wang
5) Johnson

A.Screenplay :
1) Waititi
2) Zillian
3) Gerwig
4) Phillips
5) McCarten

-Editing
1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a time in Hollywood
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) Parasite

We’ll see Monday how much they love Marriage Story. I’ve put Baumbach back in my predictions. But Scarlett remains off the shortlist. She will make the cut for Best Supporting Actress.

Many past actor/writing contenders were nominated “everywhere” only to be forgotten Oscar morning. It’s hard to remember these things because once the official nominees are announced, our memories fade and we move on to who’s going to win vs who didn’t make it.

The writing and directing is no where as good as the movies listed above it. The box office was weak considering the star power. Little Women was in the top ten or so in Production design, editing, and cinematography.

Uhhhhh, maybe you missed it Chase, but Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won 3/5 of its nominations at the Golden Globes. Which were Best Comedy/Musical Film, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Screenplay. The most awarded film of the night, and it won Best Comedy/Musical Film OVEEEERRRRRR, say it with me . . . . . Jojo Rabbit! That overrated well made but super slow movie won nothing, and it’ll most likely win nothing at the Oscars as it should. And if anything Brad Pitt is a lock for Best Supporting Actor, even if it doesn’t repeat Oscar wins with Picture and Screenplay. Get over your bitter trolling Chase, SERIOUSLY!

Marriage Story will lose all of its nods? Nah. Laura Dern will win Supporting Actress. I am willing to bet you that Johansson will be nominated for Best Actress in Marriage Story.

I loved 1917 but did like Dunkirk better. And I never really felt emotional tugs in 1917. It’s funny some mention the video game feel. My boyfriend said the same exact thing when we left the theater (he loved it too).

It’s ok that people don’t like movies as much as others do.

Plenty of movies with 3 acting nods miss best picture. The Master was one of them. I agree Baumbach gets a OS nod; I myself just hated the film, acting and script and yes, I am allowing personal feelings to get involved. Thats OK. Movies can spring emotions out of you- good or bad. Marriage Story will NOT play well post-awards season. I bet a lot of voters are name checking it based on what they’re being told to do (eg its brilliant, trust me!) This happened with American Hustle. 4 acting nods including the ABSENT Jacki Weaver. Because of hype. Then it wisely lost all 10 of its nods and is now considered by many one of the worst modern best picture nominees. Marriage Story will join that club. Watch these movies for yourself. You’d be surprised how much garbage gets nominated and then people sit down and watch and realize the horrors or reality.

Regarding Johansson, I stand by my theory that she isn’t going to score 2 acting Oscar nominations. Especially if this is her first time at bat. We all saw how that turned out for Emily Blunt last year. Yes, Blunt had movies not in best picture consideration, but this is best performance- not best actress in a great movie. (BTW Blunt is a better actress than Johansson in my book; she was robbed a nod for A Quiet Place).

I think Johansson showed better range and maturity in Jojo Rabbit. All she does in Marriage Story is throw egotistical tantrums and show how unlikable a person she is. She is not relatable at all, and like Sandler in Uncut Gems– its a repetitively one note role.

I am reminded of when Kate Winslet was getting duo nods for Revolutionary Road and The Reader. She even won the Drama Globe for the former. But after watching her in it, I was so shocked at how bad she was- and yep, this has to do with the script and direction too. Luckily the Oscars knew better, and only cited her for the much for believable Stephen Daldry film.

1917 is a weak frontrunner at Bafta ; it couldn’t even get any actors in nor get a screenplay nod ..I’ll be surprised if it even wins Bafta and certain it will not win Oscar

Here my predictions (just the main categories)
-Best Picture :
1) Once Upon a time in Hollywood
2) 1917
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) The Irishman
5) Joker
6) Marriage Story
7) Ad Astra
8) The Farewell
9) Little Women
10) Ford v Ferrari

-Director :
1) Scorsese
2) Mendes
3) Tarantino
4) Bong
5) Gerwig

-Actor :
1) Phoenix
2) Driver
3) Egerton
4) DiCaprio
5) Bale

-Actress :
1) Johansson
2) Zellweger
3) Erivo
4) Roinan
5) Nyongo’o

-Supp Actress :
1) Dern
2) Lopez
3) Bening
4) Shaotzen
5) Pugh

-O. Screenplay :
1) Tarantino
2) Baumbach
3) Bong
4) Wang
5) Johnson

A.Screenplay :
1) Waititi
2) Zillian
3) Gerwig
4) Phillips
5) McCarten

-Editing
1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a time in Hollywood
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) Parasite

But it’s very possible it would get in if it’s just 5 since it hit the Globes, PGA, and BAFTA.

It’ll be C in my opinion. Most on this site know that I was disappointed by this movie, I’d give it a 7/10 when I wished I loved it more. It’ll get nominated for Best Picture, but it’s probably in that 6th-7th slot range. And then Adapted Screenplay, Watiti should have no problem getting the nomination. Supporting Actor is not going to happen. Director, maybe, but that’s probably just the one random DGA nomination that doesn’t translate into an Oscar nomination. However, I am predicting Scarlett Johansson to double up and get nominated for Jojo Rabbit in addition to Marriage Story.

1917 seems the perfect BP choice right now: AMPAS not ready to embrace Netflix, or a foreign film? Not wanting to give Tarantino the big prize?

I understand (and have myself made) the argument for the first two sentiments, but I’m not sure what basis there is for asserting that [a majority of] AMPAS doesn’t want to give the prize to Tarantino.

1917 seems the perfect BP choice right now: AMPAS not ready to embrace Netflix, or a foreign film? Not wanting to give Tarantino the big prize?

The perfect pushback to streaming is a big bold old fashioned movie that has to be seen on the big screen.

It’s a easy watch and it’s a crowd pleaser.

The time is right and it’s peaking right now.

PS. I still think it’s third BTW, but after seeing it I so want to win

PPS. 1917 fans calm down and don’t get your hopes up because my favourites almost never win.

Ryan, please be on the watch out Disqus_xxwDaBtW3O. I believe he/she is the one that’s abusing the dislike buttons. I’ve noticed a pattern in just the past half hour. When ever I respond to him (or that other poster even), I’m greeted with not one but multiple dislikes at once. Not sure if he’s logging and back on to do it, but it’s def not a coincidence.

Some quieter scenes blew me away, but don’t want to be a spoiler. The night scenes were light so great. The cameos of Richard Madden, Mark Strong and Benedict Cumberbatch added emotional impact.

I’m done responding to you. Anyone who types child like responses like “Google” is not someone that knows how to have an actual back and forth conversation on any topic, specially the Oscars. You just have to be right. No matter what. I would hate to see what you’re like discussing this stuff at a luncheon.

Also I have a feeling you’re the troll that’s thumbing down a lot of comments. Not just mine. Grow up.

Look how many people are thumbing us down just because we didn’t like Marriage Story. I think we’re dealing with a bunch of folk that feel if you don’t like their movie, your opinion isn’t valid. Pity.

She’s just a bitter troll, more spewing what she hates than what she loves.

Unlike Marriage Story, neither films had PGA nods.

I’ve never had Lopez in.

‘Doubt’ and The Master say hello

It didn’t flop at the box office. It was never given a wide enough release. This happens with many movies, and I am wondering why it didn’t get more of a chance. It’s per screen average when it was limited started out well.

Right there with you regarding Marriage Story. I thought it was really bad.

Will this be a breakthrough year for Asian and Asian-American actors at the Oscars? Among those who’ve given acclaimed performances: Awkwafina (a Golden Globe winner and Gotham Award winner) and Shuzhen Zhao (a Broadcast Film Critics nominee and Indie Spirit nominee), both from ”The Farewell”; Song Kang Ho (a L.A. Film Critics winner for Supporting Actor and SAG Ensemble nominee for ”Parasite”). Or will it be business as usual as Asians get shut out again? Last year, ”Crazy Rich Asians” got a SAG Ensemble nomination, but no one in that cast (notably Michelle Yeoh) got an Oscar nomination. In 2009, ”Slumdog Millionaire” WON the SAG Ensemble prize, but none of its Indian actors were singled out by the Academy either.

Speaking of ”Slumdog Millionaire,” it won Best Picture and Best Director (for Danny Boyle). I’m disappointed that Boyle’s latest film, ”Yesterday,” which starred British Indian actor Himesh Patel, got practically no notice at awards time. It’s a gem of a movie. It deserved a Golden Globe nomination for Comedy/Musical and for its lead.

The flare sequence blew my mind more than anything else in the film. Never seen anything shot like that before.

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

I took some big risks, but without risks- you will never get to the winner’s booth. I don’t expect to, but I still feel some of my wildcard picks are correct.

BEST PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

I predict eight (8) nominees, and I think Marriage Story will be treated like an actor’s showcase, and not make the cut for best film. I don’t think it’s very good myself, but I have a hunch voters too will see through the smoke and mirrors that this was a film solely to get awards attention. There’s no heart in it. BAFTA snub too, and I think Bale’s movie is much more of a crowdpleaser, the type that makes it in a race like this. 1917 is the best of the bunch, even more so then Parasite- which I loved.

BEST DIRECTOR
Pedro Almodóvar, Pain and Glory
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

If you’re pooling money, stick to the DGA’s list- because usually they go 4/5. I have decided to drop the Jojo Rabbit director in favor of the smaller, more artistic Almodovar- since often the director’s branch goes for intimate pieces here. Also with Banderas looking more and more likely to be snubbed, this is the way the academy can honor the film.

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

This should be Banderas over DiCaprio, but I feel the former is losing steam. I hope I’m wrong. George MacKay should be contending for 1917; that’s an outstanding performance. I wasn’t a fan of Driver, but I can’t go against all the tides. I don’t see Murphy, Sandler or De Niro happening. Uncut Gems (Sandler) was annoying. The erratic yelling got tiresome half an hour in. Never underestimate the Bale machine. Some are saying Egerton is out, but how? He not only hit the precursors, he won a Globe. Unless they have something against Elton John. Poor Jonathan Pryce. It just is a crowded field.

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Lupita Nyongo, Us
Saorise Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombhell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

With a weak lineup as it is, there is no reason Scarlett’s horrifically wooden performance belongs anywhere near Oscar’s shortlist. While I know this is risky, I just can’t allow myself to even predict her. I hope voters go with my 5, or even Woodard in Clemency or Awkwafina in The Farewell. Playing real people help, and I think Erivo’s Broadway background helps her with New York voters. Ronan is a wildcard, but Globe Drama and BAFTA nomination trump SAG only nod. Lupita has the SAG only plus the critics, but she’s def vulnerable. Zellwger and Theron are good to go. I also don’t think Scarlett gets two (2) Oscar nominations. They will focus on her for supporting in Jojo Rabbit.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Song Kang Ho, Parasite
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I think Tom Hanks misses the boat for being in an irrelevant film that’s not sparking conversation. Timothee Chamalet got booted last year as I predicted for Sam Rockwell, because Vice WAS in the conversation. Parasite is going to be screened (and the performance is epic), and so is The Two Popes. I keep thinking an Irishman will lose out, but can’t figure out who. It’s Brad Pitt’s to lose anyways.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johnansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Watch out for SAG nominee Nicole Kidman if voters go gaga for the acting in Bombshell. Also look for a Parasite actress (the maid or rich wife are my favorites). Lopez could actually miss, even though her performance is co-lead and highly entertaining. Dern (sigh) is great in a lousy film. I hope Robbie wins the Oscar. I’m on the fence about Pugh, and there is a chance the Grandma from The Farewell sneaks in.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Knives Out
1917

Again if voters can actually watch and listen, they’ll know the script for Marriage Story is terrible. There’s no conflict. No explanation as to why these two are even getting a divorce. No connection with the son. It’s just a bunch of gibberish. I think the team from Ford v Ferrari gets in instead. That was a great screenplay. Or Booksmart.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, again, feels forgotten. These are our five.

I wish I could have done more. I will have full breakdowns on all the categories once the nominations are announced. Good luck everyone!

To turn your inquiry into a positive — HOW did they produce this wonderful film in only a few months? You can’t even produce a healthy child within the timeframe that they gave us 1917.

The film started screening for award voters very late, on November 23rd, for the simple reason of Mendes having only finished post-production 5 days prior. This meant that for example the film only had two weeks to screen for and impress the thousands of SAG voters that clearly was an impossible task when the competition had been screening and charming and q&a-ing for months at that point.

The entire schedule from start to finish was hectic af :

13 December 2018 – Universal sets the December 2019 release date

01 April 2019 – Principal photography commenced

21 June 2019 – Principal photography concluded

18 November 2019 – Post-production was completed

23 November 2019 – Industry screenings started

25 November 2019 – Review embargo was lifted

09 December 2019 – 3 Golden Globe nods including BP + BD

25 December 2019 – Limited release

10 January 2020 – Wide release

The fact that Mendes delivered a critically acclaimed technical marvel of this scope with principal photography, post-production and release all not just in the same calendar year but in an 8-month span, is nothing short of extraordinary. Add this most recent development that he also managed to open it in epic fashion without star power and all of a sudden his narrative may just seem too impressive to ignore.

I’m not saying the film is winning BP (it would need at least Writing and / or Acting nods for that and both seem unlikely at the moment), but I think Mendes could nonetheless walk away with BD. Easily.

I would actually love that. I think Song is getting nominated, but Banderas is going to be snubbed. However, next big role Banderas lands… he wins the thing.

The only case of a duo that I can remember getting in despite missing BAFTA, SAG and Globes is Ed Harris and Marcia Gay Harden. But even then MGH won two of the major critics awards and anchored Harris. McKay and Chapman didn’t show anywhere.

Never look away was my #2 for 2018. It’s phenomenal. The bus scenes…

Brave casting to put the well known actors in the smaller roles and less known in the major ones

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/65edbbdf7037b2f4fc3a5728239778e6bb6ecd8ad6833c401362b25a816d5879.jpg For great smaller roles.

The Razzies are idiotic. At least one of your predicted nominees is better than all but one of the likely Oscar nominees for best picture that I’ve seen.

1917 is a lock to win Cinematography, Production Design, and Sound Editing. It is a favorite for score, Director and Picture. Visual effects look likely for nomination. McKay is still possible, but would have been a lock if they did a film festival.

Trump said Kelly was bleeding from somewhere, after she asked him a tough question. He really did. The man is a pig.

I’d be cool with him in the 5… I thought it was very well directed… More than it’s getting credit for at least.

Best Director (In Order of Film Title):
Martin Scorsese: The Irishman
Todd Phillips: Joker
Sam Mendes: 1917
Quentin Tarantino: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-Ho: Parasite

They point to what happened with Jennifer Aniston where both are known more for their celebrity.

That’s a weird comparison to me, frankly. Lopez is campaigning for an acclaimed star turn in a film that was a big commercial success; Aniston was in the running for a film whose reception was indifferent at best and was little-seen by anyone who hadn’t been sent a screener copy.

Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins: The Two Popes
Al Pacino: The Irishman
Joe Pesci: The Irishman
Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas: Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver: Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix: Joker
Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes

Well, I actually did predict her in the AD contest – but it´s a wild guess, I confess… Merely just based on the prognosticated great reception that the film might receive on Monday.

Correction: Double-checked it, I actually predicted Cho Yeo-Jeong, of course – she played the mother of the bourgeoise family. While you are talking about the daughter, that slips into the role of the art teacher, right?
(Maybe it´s just that kind of name confusion that will prevent the Parasite actresses from getting nominated…)

!917 is gimmicky , dry and soulless ; more like a video game than a movie ; even Dunkirk was better than this

Breaking: Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will host next year’s Golden Globes following the Gervais debacle.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/tina-fey-amy-poehler-returning-as-golden-globes-hosts-1268699

Forgot to write Critics Choice. Yalitza was nominated there. It’s a good example, but still way more “possible” than the 1917 duo.

More like “BOMBEDshell”! Am I right folks?

Likely C. I’m keeping my eye out for Jojo Rabbit in Director as a sign that it may be a surprise BP contender (provided it also lands Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay) and for 1917 in Original Screenplay as a sign that it may be a surprise BP contender.

Finally get to watch Uncut Gems and 1917 today.

That’s because of the Twilight movies.

Murder Mistery is one of the worst films I have seen this year. And I have seen A LOT of Netflix films, so just imagine… I would rank it under The Silence (which I thought it was a bit better than Bird Box, while still mediocre to bad)

I agree with all of that.

I don’t get the late release? Was it late completing? I appreciate they may have not realised it was going to be the awards contender it’s turned out to be, but why the late release??

My thoughts exactly… Although I’d like to see Banderas (sight unseen) get a career nom. I just don’t know who to bump. Personally I’d say Egerton. And I really would love to see Nyong’o get in. Honestly at the expense of anyone but ScarJo… But I think I’m predicting the same 5 in each for the same reasons.

sheeps

Losing the Globe indicated that she wasn’t going to win. As far as the BAFTA miss goes, less than ideal, but between BAFTA’s, ahem, issues with non-white actors and the fact that she was bumped out for a double Robbie nomination that cannot happen under Oscar rules, I don’t think it says all that much.

Interesting take- I found the opposite- Dunkirk lacked the emotion and personal story that 1917 had.

Gimmicky is an obvious cheap shot as it was with Birdman. I can wear that, as long as it also wins BP.

probably seeing that on Wednesday

I think you’re seriously overlooking Noah Baumbach here for Director. Look at what happened when Juno suddenly got that sudden Directors nomination for Jason Reitman. You don’t think that’s at all possible knowing that Marriage Story is set for at least one win.

The emmy win is pretty BS honestly… They don’t even have that category anymore. And the Emmy’s have a category for literally anything!

I thoroughly enjoyed Gervais’s truthtellin’ bluntness but I also love the Fey/Poehler duo so this should be good !

Competition was fiercer in Captain Phillips’ year but the final scene alone was enough of a case not only for the nom but for number 3. He and Joaquim Phoenix should have gotten in over Bale and Dern, who were also amazing, but, in my books, Phoenix should have won with Hanks as runner-up.

The love has fizzled after it bombed at the box office. BAFTA snubbed Kidman in a weak category. No screenplay. No PGA.

I guess the point is that if it was in fact edited—even if made to look like 2 long takes—they will still nominate it as a tech/artistic juggernaut.

More so than BIRDMAN… There’s only 1 obvious cut in 1917 and it makes perfect sense in the context of the scene. Otherwise it looks like 1 long shot… Or 2 long shots if you want to include the cut I was referring to.

Yes, I forgot about it… Kirsten Stewart may win worst actress…

It’s a very tough watch but I’d admire the bravery of Jennifer Kent (now that’s a female that should be nominated) of showing the brutality of the era in an unflinching way. It’s extraordinary.

It’s a shame. I think the film limited its audience and alienated a lot of potential viewers but it feels like the story should have been told that way.

In retrospect, I think she could have toned it right down and released the version she released as a directors cut

Well, I thought Birdman was legit “not edited.” Is 1917 edited to look like it wasn’t edited?

Not so off topic… Razzies are coming, too… probably some of the BIG candidates…

Cats, by Tom Hooper (is going to sweep)
Murder Mystery, by Kyle Newacheck
The Fanatic, by Fred Durst (John Travolta may be the locked up winner for Worst Actor and maybe Worst Screen Couple with Devon Sawa)
Serenity (watch out for Matthew McConnaghey nominated for worst actor)
Hellboy (David Harbour may not earn a razzie nom, though, because he has been considered the saving grace of the film)
The Goldfinch (they love to nominate the Oscar film that couldn’t)
Replicas
X-Men: Dark Phoenix
Gemini Man
Midway
Terminator: Dark Fate
The Professor and the Madman (Mel Gibson and Sean Penn)

If I had to bet…

Picture – Cats
Director – Tom Hooper (Cats) – but watch out for Fred Durst (The Fanatic)
Actor – John Travolta (The Fanatic)
Actress – Sophie Turner (X-Men Dark Phoenix) or Nicole Kidman (The Goldfinch)
Supporting Actor – James Corden (Cats)
Supporting Actress – Taylor Swift (Cats)
Animated Feature – Playmobil
Sequel – X-Men: Dark Phoenix
Screen Couple – any combination of Cats

The worst picture line up…

Cats
The Fanatic
Gemini Man
Midway
X-Men: Dark Phoenix

Why are you worrying yourself? Hollywood is a pipedream created by critics and misguided pundits. First it was Irishman, and now that it’s going to tumble into the Gangs of New York 0-10 graveyard, they’re on to trying to hype the Hollywood narrative. It’s like Regina George once said….
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93a2179cc9d430adee63110000455924ed441800a85389ac2a3ea3bef07c8e61.gif

right right…lame

C is likeliest, but B is a possibility.

it’s solid on the big screen. I wouldn’t call the dialogue corny, just somewhat predictable. At least it wasn’t a love story which would have been incredibly predictable.

I think Parasite lands in both supporting categories. Q vs Mendes isn’t that compelling a narrative. Another foreign film making a legit BP run is.

If Song Kang-Ho isn’t nominated for Best Supporting Actor, the Academy should crash and burn.

C, is my read.

true

Pretty much. I thought she was good but she’s never going to win so you might as well nominate Awkwafina for a much better film.

Also Jessie Buckley should be in the conversation way more than she is.

Expanded category.

I really didn’t care for CAPTAIN PHILLIPS… I just got annoyed by it after a while. But Hanks was outstanding. Especially in it’s final scenes. It seemed VERY real.

I’m predicting a snub. More to play the odds on GD than anything. I’ve got Kidman in at 100/1 and Pugh over J-Lo. Plus it’s not a performance that anyone will actually care if she’s snubbed for it even a year from now. They might mention it because of the stats but they won’t REALLY care.

I love Theron. But if she got snubbed I honest;y would’nt really care. It’s one of those films that could get 3 acting nominations or 0 and I wouldn’t feel any different either way… If anyone from that film made it in I’d love it to be John Lithgow.

This is their way of making up for it haha. No complaints from me.

Robbie is very good in both but her bids are vastly boosted by the weakness of the category. JLo is terrific and Dern is very good and deserving an overdue win. But the rest… ScarJo has at least 5 performances in her career much more awards worthy than in Jojo. Pugh is getting nominated for Midsommar. And the alternates… Zhao is obviously good in a very easy role for someone with her physique. No more awards worthy than Robbie, though. No more awards worthy than Julie Walters is in Wild Rose or Maggie Smith in DA. I actually like Kidman more than Robbie in Bombshell.

This year, overall, is one of the strongest I have ever seen but in this category, in particular, is terrible. Take last year’s category. The duo from favorite, Amy Adams and winner King would easily be nominated this year. The category from 2014. Lupita, Lawrence, Hawkins, Roberts and Squibb. All five could win this year.

C is likeliest, I’m rooting for B. A would be AMAZING and HILARIOUS! Just like he is.

De Niro was so great in that film and it’s really stunning he’s gotten so little traction for it.

Same.

It’s a real dud of a movie. And though Jay Roach has made many political films, with none of them being particularly insightful or challenging, Bombshell is especially toothless–even by the estimation of many of the people involved. But it’s timely and baity, so it’s a player.

1917 is phenomenal, a masterpiece. The piece of crap Hollywood beating 1917 to BP is going to be hard to watch.

Mackay should be in the actor conversation but it’s too late.

Newman needs to finally win an Oscar. Hoping Mendes and Deakin also win.

1917 seems like such an AMPAS film- steak eating older white voters will surely prefer it to Hollywood? Surely?

Sounds a bit silly but so good to see just a well-told, straightforward story, linear narrative, done to perfection.

Unfortunately Mendes has won BP/BD before and doesn’t have Tarantino’s overdue narrative.

Sasha wasn’t overhyping it. Go and see 1917, you won’t be disappointed.

My top 5 of 2019 now
1. The Nightingale
2. 1917
3. Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4. Parasite
5. The Children Act

exactly

I fairly think that both Gerwig and Almodovar have a better chance than Waititi and Phillips. Based on the arthouse-friendly character of the Academy´s director branch.

Those many probablys are confusing me too 🙂

I simply said I’m rooting for her doesn’t mean I think she’ll make it into the top 5 nor does she deserve to. The top 4 are locked: Zellweger, Johansson, Theron, Ronan. She’s fighting for the last spot with Erivio and Nyong’o.

No “representation” narratives, please. Let’s focus on merit.

I’m rooting for a lot of people but especially for Awkwafina. The fact that if Awkwafina gets an Oscar nomination, she’ll be the first asian women JUST to be nominated for best actress. It will be huge moment for asian representation, I wish A24 had pushed this narrative more. I’m sad that media didn’t help her campaign or write thinkpieces to drive more momentum for her.

The day before the Globes, I checked the GoldDerby experts and they all, unanimously almost, had Pacino in second place after Pitt for the Globes. Of course it was very clear that Pitt was winning that, but it surprised me. Maybe they knew something I don’t?

What helped Rampling at the Oscars was that she was a critics favorite – winning LAFC, NSFC among others. And Lupita is the critics favorite this year. Erivo has the baggage of being in a mediocre film – that has been criticized for being a Lifetime movie.

If Egerton pulls off either SAG or Bafta, he definitely has a shot at the Oscar … although he has to get nominated first. Also, Elton John is famous for his Annual Oscar Party so he could have more loyal fans in the Academy than we give him credit for.

His narrative is strong (his own biopic + his co-writer is his old writing partner) and they made sure to emphasise it in their Golden Globe speech, so it could definitely happen.

I’d like to think that will happen but I’m also championing The Two Popes, so I’m hoping both Pryce and Hopkins will get in. If anything, I’d replace Bale with Banderas; don’t know whom to replace in BSActor tho.

Being an Oscar winner is not a negative. The Academy would be more familiar with her work and she is a member of the Academy herself.

Plus one on Glasgow. I listened to all the top contenders and it is far and above the best one in my book. The others either have cliched lyrics or utterly forgettable melody meanwhile Glasgow is an instant classic.

I’d nominate Awkwafina over Erivo, Nyong’o, and Theron without hesitation, just on performance.

Sir Elton John’s song is better but Stand Up may even be an above average winner.

The only thing I really care in this category is Glasgow getting nominated.

Yep, fully aware of this. She could pull it off if her team plays up this angle and she gets enough votes in Song that unlike last year, doesn’t have a clear frontrunner this season. Will it be Elton (again) ? Will it be Beyonce for the first time ? Will it be Erivo’s EGOT ticket ? Possibilities, possibilities.

The Egerton/Pryce nominations intrigue me as the recognisable biopic Best Actor nominee prospects. If one fails to get in, their votes might feed into the other. Very dark horse (although I personally don’t think either really are deserving enough for their performance).

Bombshell is a bit suspect. Very much a Globes/SAG ensemble type film. If the season had been longer, I imagine it would have been shut out completely, but the main cast is just too good to dismiss.

You would think that Parasite & 1917 would need an acting nomination to confidently contend, and with Hollywood/Irishman as fragile high-nominee frontrunners this could lead to some real surprises.

So far I am going with the DGA for Director, HOWEVER, I am thinking Marty loses his spot to Phillips (or Gerwig).

Almodóvar, at this point, while possible, is mostly wishful thinking at Director. He has a better shot at Original, and he won’t be there. Banderas will lose the nom, too. The only category, aside of International that I see now falling for a P&G nomination, is score (it would be Alberto Iglesias’ 4th nom)

Im confused. I thought only Best Pic is preferential ballot. Can someone share which other categories are also preferential or was that an error in the article?

I’m also predicting a snub

I am putting him second behind phoenix. But the more I see him and Elton, the more I think a big shock might be on the cards.

Being an Oscar winner is not a negative. The Academy would be more familiar with her work and she is a member of the Academy herself.

Only If we have OscarSoWhite… without that, Elton John in a cakewalk.

That’s why I don’t really care about the winner. If the best song (by far) is nominated, it’s enough for me.

Charlotte Rampling is even more popular, even more of a historic British figure and missed BAFTA. I think Erivo is in. Lupita out.

Who do they lose out to, does he say?

If someone is going to miss the nom, I think it’s Lupita. Early release, genre movie, already won an Oscar and the movie has zero passion outside the Actress category. At least Erivo has that song nod coming for her too.

I think both are in. Stats-wise the quintet at the moment is Zellweger, Theron, Johansson, Erivo, Ronan with Nyong’O and Awkwafina close behind at #6 and #7, respectively.

I think Ronan will get in over Erivo. Little Women has been surging. It has done well at the box office and Ronan is an Academy favorite. Erivo is a popular British performer, so her BAFTA snub was telling.

I had to scroll back and see if the person who wrote this was Sasha after the “go for Greta Gerwig to make Oscars history as the first woman ever to get two directing nominations (which you gotta admit, would be pretty cool)“ part of this prediction hahahaha.

Jokes aside, my predictions align with yours in pretty much every category, which is the first time it happened since I started reading this site in 2011, so that’s cool! Really hoping that De Niro surprises us with a nod in Best Actor, though. It’s such an incredible performance that I would hate to see go unnoticed at the Oscars.