2020 Oscar Nominations!

That might be the EXACT ranking according to Metacritic. 🙂 (Probably not quite, but VERY close – one or two-point differences here and there, tops…)

PGA seems hardest to me. Foreign films just don’t win that. (Same as Best Picture at the Oscars.)

Exactly. This is 100% how I look at it as well.

It hurts, but probably not decisively.

Precisely – that’s the lesson I’ve learned as well.

Why doesn’t it need acting nominations?

Ummm, 1917 wasn’t nominated for editing either…

Traditionally, editing, of course, but in the end in these cases almost always what decides things is which movie wins more major guilds.

I still don’t think the stat about not winning picture/director/screenplay at GG/CC can be beaten, to he honest (at least not by this movie, with this ending), so I still don’t see it winning. But I guess the critical love (which, for instance, BlacKkKlansman didn’t have, nor did A Star is Born, at least not as much as The Irishman) could help it pull this off… But I’ll kinda’ have to see it to believe it. 🙂 (Meaning a PGA/DGA win, and, since it’s in play for all of them, probably also either a SAG win or a WGA win or both. The Departed got DGA+WGA.)

Do we get to pick which snubs we care about? I don’t think so. We don’t care about SAG, maybe, sure, because of AFTRA and its seeming impact, but we also don’t care about DGA, acting, editing, ACE?! These stats remain very strong.

What?! Silence of the Lambs lost all precursors? No, no, no… It WON almost all (significant) precursors: PGA, DGA and WGA. (Also NYFCC and NBR.) It only lost the Globe. (The least predictive, except for the critics prizes.) BAFTA was post-Oscars back then.

The overlap is what leads me to believe that in the end the Director’s branch of the Academy has more relevant in the Oscar voting which in the end embraces thousands more people. Because Argo and Green Book seem to refute that theory doesn’t really matter as we can use other statistic to support any theory. A DGA nod to JO JO RABBIT in my view means close to nothing as that film will be lucky to win a single Oscar (for screenplay) if that.

Also, of course, Roma had zero SAG nominations, and only Braveheart had won from that position before.

“the Director’s branch is far more significant methinks than the DGA as we are talking about the Oscars here.”

Tell that to Argo and Green Book!… 🙂 I actually think the DGA, a consensus vote based on a large voting body, like AMPAS, is more relevant, despite the 100% overlap for the directing branch, which has been known to do MANY weird things that had nothing to do with BP strength.

“Phillips’ popularity with the AMPAS directors and with the Academy in general with the leading 11 nons speaks volumes.”

So did Roma’s and The Favourite’s… not. 🙂 (And there are obviously many other examples, not just last year’s.)

It could, but it probably doesn’t. Like it didn’t for Birdman, or Spotlight at ACE. Or Green Book or Argo when they missed director, etc.

Do you live in the UK?

Do you know the lady in this gif? She was on one of my favorite shows, Big Brother. At least I think that is Elissa Reilly Slater.

Focus knows how to campaign, and keep its movies in high profile theatres for as long as possible. Harriet is still playing here at the Quad in NYC, a known hangout of AMPAS voters. Take a fucking hint, A24.

Yeah, this mystifies me too. It’s a long movie that FLIES BY, just like The Irishman (and to a lesser extent, Parasite).

A lot of great wit here today!

Were Parasite not competing in IF, I would agree with you. But I think it is between Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Irishman, 1917 and Joker (in that order). I would not mind being proved wrong, as I adored Parasite.

This made me laugh.

John Smith I agree with your position almost across the board and you’ve made so many valid points. However the only difference we have is “1917.” It remains one of my absolute faves of the year and as it is I am far less enamored of the one-take “gimmick” than I am with the film’s emotionally overwhelming essence. I love Parasite too and think Bong’s direction superlative but by a narrow margin I am rooting for Menzies, who I do like you think will win that prize regardless of what happens in BP.

Dave I saw that and was happy it got in. I wish it could have gotten even more.

Check out Cinematography. Lighthouse made it there.

But in Irishman, when the ladies speak, you remember it. Esp. Anna Paquin and Marin Ireland.

Agreed, but which of the five would we remove? Insane!

Gerwig is recognized in Adapted Screenplay and she may even win, though I much prefer Steven Zaillian (Irishman).

I thought Pryce was overlooked last year for The Wife, and I’ll bet this helped him get in as well.

Let it go! And they did!

De Niro HAD to be “near”. He is doing some of his best work EVER. So many memorable moments. It will stand as one of his best-ever performances, esp. if the film does well Oscar night.

Two of my favorites as well. Esp. the latter.

The Silence of the Lambs has Joker for breakfast.

I feel bad for him, but he had to be aware it was an over-stuffed field, and that Malek had just won last year (even though Malek didn’t actually sing). He’ll be back.

Yes, that statement kind of stood out for me as well.

Not in a good way.

The Irishman has MANY laugh-out loud moments. My audience seemed to be surprised at just how many, given the grim subject matter. Scorsese can do comedy. (He can also do musicals, albeit dark ones. “New York, New York” is one of my favorite films).

Scorsese. You can never rule him out if he is nominated for good work, and he certainly is here.

How do “we know” this? Jojo is not everyone’s cup of tea, and Gerwig may well be snubbed (out of exhaustion with her narrative).

Since Taron is out of the picture, Elton is close to a lock here.

It would be well-deserved. It would also be a big FUCK YOU (to the film’s detractors). I thought the VFX was terrific..

Happy that Lighhouse is in the mix (Cinematography). Dafoe was sadly always a long shot. Pattinson would have been a welcome shock, but he was even a longer shot. One of my favorite movies last year, but please see it in a THEATRE.

I will join in this chorus enthusiastically. When De Niro is on, he is ON. He had at least four “Oscar clips” for my money. (The phone call to Hoffa’s wife is a master class).

Along with 1917, here’s four projects that nailed it to the wall and I don’t see AMPAS outright sending any one of them home empty-headed. More likely, wealth is going to be spread.

I strongly disagree. I was stunned by Parasite (esp. the last hour). It is one “outstanding” moment after another. Are you sure you saw it?

I was not baffled. I saw Irishman at the Belasco Theatre in NYC (normally a Broadway house). HUGE screen. I was not distracted by the “de-aging” at all, and in fact marveled at some of it. It is a well-deserved nomination.

My favorite scene in an otherwise disappointing movie (I ADORED “Hereditary”; maybe my hopes were too high). But praise to Aster (and Reynor) for including prolonged, gratuitous male nudity. More please!

So is Klaus, which I saw in a theatre. My favorite nomination of the day and I hope it wins.

🙂 But it’s essential in predicting SO many winners… I think it’s lazy (as well as ill-advised) to not include it in the list of key precursors just because you’d have to deal with some minor technical issues due to some movies not being eligible. It works, it helps predict things, so it matters. A WGA winner wins SO many of the CLOSE Best Picture races, it’s indispensable, as far as I’m concerned.

The only category The Irishman can win is Adapted Screenplay. But that’s it, it’s either that category or nothing. We’ll know whether it’s that, Little Women, or Jojo Rabbit is winning Adapted Screenplay after WGA and BAFTA have their say.

Definitely. And in the case of Egerton … he was SO good. And I just knew that he’d somehow miss even though he was utterly deserving; giving an even better performance, in my eyes, than last year’s WINNER, Malek. I don’t blame him on bit for campaigning as hard as possible to get a nose out this year.

Yeah, but how does the movie that’s popular enough to win BP in the end not also get nominated for foreign film??? Maybe if there are several international films in BP? It’s hard to envision, either way…

Haha I was actually so annoyed by Bates nomination because I didn’t want to have to watch Richard Jewell!

It does help that so many of the movies are period pieces (to varying degrees). 7 of the 9 are set at least 35 years in the past. That in itself is interesting, in relation to AMPAS’ taste.

the case for Argo is irrelevant, Affleck was shut out à the last minute while he was voted best director by the DGA, it was more or less the same with Driving Miss Daisy when Bruce beresford was overlooked, the case for Green Book is more intriguing, and the fact that is won at the PGA was a great help

And also for Girl in a Pearl Earring. She should have been double-nominated 15 years ago.

So I try to watch every nominated film (I don’t include song, I just listen to the songs because they are sometimes in some awful documentaries) before the Oscars. I never manage to do it but wonder whether I might this year because I realised this year aside from the shorts I’m only 10 films away from having seen them all – just missing 1917, Bombshell, Harriet, Richard Jewell, The Lighthouse, Honeyland, Corpus Christi, The Cave, American Factory, The Edge of Democracy. 1917 is in theatres and Bombshell will be on 2 days so I’ll see them soon… American Factory and Edge of Democracy are on Netflix so its only 6 that I need to figure out if they will get here before Oscars. It just shows that in these short seasons they really do watch and nominates less films so despite having less time it’s actually easy to catch up on them all!

that’s not how voting works. they vote for performance, not necessarily actor. just because she was nominated for 2 movies and they like Judy better, it doesn’t mena they’ll automatically like her Jojo performance over Dern’s Marriage story performance

Dern is locked. Johansson got 2 noms and so far zero wins for either. means they like her performances enough for nominations but think someone else in those categories is better.

Of course, but the results of critics awards confirm those three movies in particular (later also Crash) were not liked very much at all by critics even at the time.

The fact that the ceremony is held earlier now should actually help the HFPA and BFCA’s anointed winner not face any backlash or front runner fatigue.

I am just saying that globes is much more statistically accurate than critics choice to predict Oscar nominations. I am not giving any judgement on which one is more classier or have a “better taste”.

To be fair, Dern is the most vulnerable of the four acting races. But Johannson could potentially split her vote with those who will vote for her for Marriage Story. She would have to surprise at SAG to have any real shot.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/xgcGEUQf63fqg/giphy.gif

Oh, I just realized why no foreign film had won the WGA – because almost all of them were ineligible. 🙂 Even if Parasite isn’t. I’ll have to edit that, above… (Or, I guess, below.)

Edit: I see that, actually, besides Parasite and Roma, a bunch of foreign titles were nominated, especially in adapted. So I guess this is still a thing, then…

If you believe the stats that only DGA nominated movies can win Best Picture, then you reduce the field down to: 1917, Hollywood, Parasite, Irishman, and Jojo Rabbit. Also, if you believe that the Film Editing stat is crucial to winning, you have to remove 1917 and Hollywood. That leaves Parasite, Irishman, and Jojo Rabbit. So if you believe those stats, one of those 3 is your Best Picture winner OR those stats will fall and the importance of those precursors will decline.

It didn’t win both. It TIED for one. 🙂 With the favorite.
And it didn’t miss everywhere else for screenplay – it got WGA. (It did miss everywhere besides that, this is true.)

I agree, but the one who is getting cooed over is not one of them. I would not be so gung-ho in my comments if we wer talking Heller, Wang, Celine….virtually anyone but Gerwig.

Quick observation: the only Globe + Critics Choice picture winners that are under 84 on Metacritic (like Once, which is on 83) – Chicago (82), A Beautiful Mind (72) and Gladiator (67) – all won Best Picture too. True, they all won it under the old system – but, looking at precursor results, chances are they would have won it regardless. And, in fact, the seven GG+BFCA picture winners that lost at the Oscars have an average Metascore of 92, whereas the nine that won have an average Metascore of 84, just above Once’s… The reason I looked at this was the I realized Once wasn’t the kind of movie that wins Globe and Critics Choice but is then rejected by AMPAS for the big prize (because it’s more of a critics thing), and the numbers seem to confirm it.

Embrassing ??? Gywneth Paltrow,Jennifer Lawrence yes it is embrassing. But this year nooo. Think again. Think Jennifer Lawrence with an Oscar.

I saw it in the theatre, then on a TV, then on an iPad. The de-aging is way worse in the theatre, not much of a difference between the other two (but still ugly).

I hate to say this, but probably the one thing that eliminates “Parasite” is it being a foreign language film – which the Academy members will honor in the Foreign Language Film category. Me thinking this could change some day was probably nothing more than wishful thinking. It sucks, but it seems almost impossible for a foreign language film to break through.
P.S. I hope you are right about Jojo. 😉

You need to have a very good reason to predict a snub after SAG, BAFTA, GG and Critics Choice. And to predict someone that has missed all the 4.

Congrats, Sammy ! I know neither Jojo nor The Two Popes did AS WELL as you hoped all season so far but both still did quite well. Writing and acting for both and BP for Jojo. Not too shabby, not too shabby at all 🙂

I like it a lot. Hope you enjoy it.

Wes Anderson – derivated visual style, an heart warming story, a war message that feels relevant in this specific moment, AND the presence of the most popular and well known young actress in the world- Scarlett Johansson. It does have many things going for it.

Renne Zellweger gave a amazing performance, and the rest of actress did a great job, you dont have to pull down their performance for defending your favorites

I think it’s quite unpredictable right now.
OUATIH is still the frontrunner, but the editing miss and the nature of Tarantino being a love-it-or-hate-it director might affect the result.

Parasite has always been the dark horse to me, but we have to keep in mind that the only foreign movie that ever really got close to the award without american pedigree in acting or directing (Cuaron) would be “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”, but even that had some really important – well known asian actors, which Parasite lacks.

Jojo rabbit has been quite divsive with critics, but it is the “heartfelt” kind of movie that many in the General public could consider the best. Also, visually it recalls Wes Anderson’s style, which is very “In”, but it adds drama and never goes too far with comedy, which makes it have more “gravitas” than “grand Budapest hotel”.

Irish Man would be a good choice, but it does have a problem in being, at the same time, too much of an old movie to some (long running time, all- male cast, gangster theme) while too modern to others ( massive use of CGI, being on netflix) . It does not seem to have a large audience that would put it first or second on their list.

1917… It won the globe so it looked like a contender, but the stats would suggest it is OUT.

The most significant stat “breakthroughs”:

PICTURE: None [weakest was Ford v Ferrari with BFCA and PGA, which probably knocked out Knives Out with HFPA and PGA]

DIRECTOR: None [weakest was Phillips who missed DGA, but had HFPA and BAFTA]

ACTOR (2): Pryce with HFPA and BAFTA and Banderas with BFCA and HFPA knocking out Egerton with an HFPA win and SAG and BAFTA

ACTRESS: None [weakest was Pugh with BFCA, HFPA and BAFTA and Erivo with BFCA, HFPA and SAG, but both were stronger than N’yongo with BFCA and SAG and Awkwafina with BFCA and an HFPA win]

SUPPORTING ACTOR: None

SUPPORTING ACTRESS (1): Bates with HFPA only knocking out Lopez with BFCA, HFPA and SAG

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (1): 1917 with WGA only knocking out Booksmart with WGA and BAFTA

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: None

Also that sex scene where Aunt March pushes on Jack Reynor’s butt.

In my opinion, the WGA shouldn’t be a factor in predicting Best Picture winners, because its curtailed eligibility means it’s not a true precursor.

Campaigning just feels icky.

Amen about the flashbacks

Methodologically, I don’t think the WGA ineligibility should count on the “weakness” deductions side. It’s well-established that because the WGA has different rules, the results don’t particularly matter. If Tarantino had been a WGA member, OUATIH would have been nominated; he’s won the screenplay Oscar twice already, and is on course for a third.

Like Ferdinand said, it was actually editing that did Roma in. Green Book got that nomination. Editing is huge… Birdman is the only exception in the last 40 years or so.

I think I had Egerton predicted as well. 🙂

If I’d loved Joker too (I only kinda’ liked it, definitely not more), I probably wouldn’t have believed either. 🙂

Yeah… Brutal…

Ranking the nominees… (watching 1917 tomorrow)

Picture

1. The Irishman
2. Parasite
3. Joker
4. Once upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Marriage Story
(haven’t seen the rest)

Director
1. Martin Scorsese
2. Bong Joon-Ho
3. Todd Phillips
4. Quentin Tarantino
not seen 1917

Actor
1. Antonio Banderas
2. Joaquin Phoenix
3. Jonathan Pryce
4. Leonardo di Caprio
5. Adam Driver

Actress
1. Scarlett Johansson
not seen the rest

S. Actor
1. Joe Pesci
2. Anthony Hopkins
3. Al Pacino
4. Brad Pitt
not seen Tom Hanks’

S. Actress
1. Laura Dern
not seen the rest

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Irishman
2. Joker
3. The Two Popes
not seen the rest

Original Screenplay
1. Parasite
2. Knives Out
3. Once upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Marriage Story
not seen 1917

Animated Feature
1. Toy Story 4
2. I lost my body
3. Klaus
4. How to train your Dragon: The Hidden World
not seen Missing Link

International Film
1. Pain and Glory
2. Parasite
not seen the rest.

🙂

That should be I, not so. My autocorrect on this iPod is terrible.

I like you. This response was so kind.

OUATIH surprised me more tbh

This is long but, I think, all QUITE relevant… So, first, the final version of the stats table (top 13 – including all Critics Choice Best Picture nominees, as well as, of course, all PGA and Oscar nominees in that category):

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 81 43
The Irishman 74 39
Parasite 70 35
Marriage Story 62 34
Joker 61 30
Jojo Rabbit 56 28
1917 50 26
Little Women 40 21
Knives Out 27 15 (not up for Best Picture)
The Two Popes 25 14 (not up for Best Picture)
Ford v Ferrari 23 11
The Farewell 22 13 (not up for Best Picture)
Uncut Gems 16 10 (not up for Best Picture.)

The first figure is the weighted total (3 points assigned to the strongest stats, 1 to the weakest – meaning those not far enough over 90% and/or with samples that are too small, and no voter overlap -, 2 for those in-between), the second one is the straight count (simply 1 point for each stats box ticked). Now, I shall quote myself from last year:

I’ve kept this table for four years (sure, the things included and their weights have changed slightly, over time), this being the fifth, and the two times a movie ended up in clear, sole first place (according to both tallying methods), it won the Oscar for Best Picture in the end (Spotlight and The Shape of Water), and twice there was no lone first place and it was a movie not in first (or clear second) that won: Manchester by the Sea was 1 point ahead of both La La Land and Moonlight in the weighted standings but 1 point behind the former in the straight count standings and Roma was 2 points ahead in the straight count standings but only tied with A Star is Born in the weighted ones. And both of those lost. (To Moonlight, 1 off and 2 off, and Green Book, 8 off and 9 off.)

This data could be useful moving forward, if one is to assume things are likely to continue in this vein (which the general trajectory of Oscar stats over the years, as well as the current correlation percentages, suggest it will), such as when there’s a clear leader again (which seems to mean that movie will win, even after seemingly very tight races) or there isn’t (which seems to actually suggest that a movie outside the top 2, but not too far off, will win – Green Book was 5th/4th-5th, respectively, and no more than 9 points off in either of the standings, which would narrow it down to 3-5 movies, tops, for those closer years). But there’s much more data to collect in years to come, of course, before any of this will seem more certain. For now, it’s good for some strong early clues, which is all I wanted it to be when I first started compiling it.

So, according to this four-year sample (do remember, however, that this table is based, each year, on A TON of data, all working, via high-percentage correlations and, in many cases, voter overlap as well, towards indicating what is most likely to win Best Picture at the Oscars), Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood should win, since the only previous clear leaders in both standings did so. If that’s unreliable, then we have The Irishman as the only other movie no farther off first place (or in first place) than any of the four BP winners in the covered period. Parasite, the third place finisher, is 11 points off (8 on the straight count side – still valid there), 3 more than the previous lowest-ranked winner, Green Book, so it shouldn’t win. (Of course, 3 points may well not prove statistically relevant, once the sample increases. But, again, if history repeats itself, given that there is a clear leader in both, and by at least 4 points in each, Once should just win. We’ll see how this goes…)

Now, the current situation according to my official Best Picture-predicting system:

Some preliminary notes (if any of these don’t make total sense as is, one should probably just read them after the explanations below):

– I see I was a tad optimistic before about Once and its editing snub. I’d forgotten about the WGA ineligibility, which I score as -0.5 points (and this IS needed, or else I have to change my tiebreak rules somehow to get Shape as the 2018 predicted winner), and which, more importantly, perhaps, means it can’t physically win SAG+WGA… I think it needs to win either PGA+DGA or PGA+SAG (the latter seems more doable, and I think if it wins the PGA it’s likely to win SAG as well – and the former is also possible). So, it’s still very much valid, but it’s in more trouble than I’d thought. Meaning, it’ll be more difficult for it to become the points leader at the end (as it’s now losing almost any tie – I’ve also decided to score a SAG ensemble win for a movie with no SAG or Oscar acting nominations as -0.5 overall for acting, similarly for WGA/screenplay and DGA/directing, so if Parasite wins SAG and ends up tied with Once for first, somehow, then that’ll be a proper mess, as I’ve never had this situation before).
– I failed to comment earlier on just how well Jojo Rabbit did here, despite the predicted directing snub! It got not only supporting actress (which I expected) and screenplay (which was even more likely), but also editing, which I think was a bit of a surprise. Thus, a funny situation has arisen: even though Joker is the lone nominations leader with 11 and Jojo is only tied for 5th with 6, the former is out of contention (it already was) for the BP win, whereas the latter remains valid, as its only deduction so far is in directing! No two snub rule. Of course, it WILL need to win the WGA. Because…
– The Irishman, unless I change my elimination rules (I’ve been considering adding a rule that says a movie has to win either PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble or WGA to not be out of contention, a rule with zero exceptions in the PGA era and more, and The Irishman might be a good reason to do so), cannot end up being one of the movies eliminated, so (again, unless I make some changes) all of the movies eliminated (which I will list below) are not going to win Best Picture. (At least according to my system.) If all others are eliminated, The Irishman will become the favorite to win even if it loses PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA – all of them. (But, let’s face it, I’ll never let that happen! Since it just wouldn’t make much sense. I almost surely WILL add the aforementioned rule, should it come to that.) They keep finding ways to give me tough decisions, somehow! 🙂 Although maybe this won’t happen. There’s a good chance it won’t.

Quick(-ish) explanation of my system and how it works:

Stage 1 – elimination rules, all based on stats with under 4% exceptions over at least 30 years (usually way, way more than that – the PGA one is the only one with a sample under 70 years, and it, of course, has zero exceptions):

– a movie snubbed by the PGA is assumed to not be able to win Best Picture;
– a movie not at least tied for 5th in the Oscar nomination rankings is assumed to not be able to win Best Picture;
– a movie snubbed in at least two different major categories (picture – meaning PGA -, director, writing, acting or editing) by the guilds and/or Oscars is assumed to not be able to win Best Picture;
– a movie that loses the WGA while eligible (either by being snubbed or by losing the final vote) and has at least one guild or Oscar snub in one of the other four aforementioned categories (picture, directing, acting or editing) is assumed to not be able to win Best Picture.

All of this, unless a situation arises in which ALL movies are facing at least one such stat, in which case the count described below decides matters, and all nominees take part. Otherwise, only the movies not eliminated by any of the above rules move forward.

Stage 2 – weakness count (among the movies still in contention):

– any snub for picture (PGA), directing (DGA and/or Oscar), writing (WGA and/or Oscar), acting (SAG ensemble, SAG and/or Oscar acting) or editing (ACE and/or Oscar), when eligible, results in a one point deduction, but no more than one point being deducted per each of the five categories;
– any major guild defeat (PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG) WHEN NOMINATED also results in a one point deduction, with the exceptions mentioned above: a movie that wins the DGA but gets snubbed for directing only loses half a point, likewise a movie that wins SAG Ensemble but gets snubbed for acting (at either SAG or the Oscars or both) or a movie that wins the WGA but gets snubbed for screenplay (which hasn’t happened yet, at least in the PGA era).

Stage 3 – tiebreakers (if no one movie still in contention emerges as clear first place after the count), used in this order until a movie is ahead (so, no totals):

– a higher number of SAG acting wins;
– fewer snubs in the categories listed above;
– WGA win;
– PGA win;
– DGA win;
– SAG Ensemble win.

Of course, since this is my modus operandi, the system, as described, correctly predicts all PGA era Best Picture winners, the hope being that it can, as a result, also predict future winners (especially in closer races). Probably a bit optimistic, but, if it doesn’t, the further hope is, then, that there is a way to tweak it some more so that it eventually does…

The situation this year, so far (we actually already have a clear, ranked top 4, which is odd – and will likely change, anyway):

1. The Irishman (0)

No deductions so far.

2. Parasite (-0.5/-1)

Either a full point deduction or a half a point deduction, for missing out on SAG and Oscar acting nominations, depending on whether or not it wins Best Ensemble.

3. Jojo Rabbit (-1)

One point deducted for the Oscar directing snub. Amazingly, it’s missed nothing else of consequence to this system…

4. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (-1.5)

A full point deducted for the Oscar editing snub and another half a point deducted for the WGA ineligibility, which prevents it from winning there.

These four are the only remaining valid winners… The ones below are eliminated:

5-6. Joker, 1917 (-2)

Joker is eliminated by the two snub rule (DGA and SAG ensemble snubs = directing and acting weakness).
1917 is also eliminated by the two snub rule (SAG shutout plus no Oscar acting nominations, ACE and Oscar editing snubs = acting and editing weakness).

7-9. Marriage Story, Little Women, Ford v Ferrari (-3)

Marriage Story is eliminated by the two snub rule (DGA plus Oscar directing snubs, SAG ensemble snub, Oscar editing snub = directing, acting and editing weakness).
Little Women is eliminated by the two snub rule as well (DGA plus Oscar directing snubs, SAG shutout, ACE and Oscar editing snubs = directing, acting and editing weakness).
Ford v Ferrari is eliminated by both the nominations ranking rule (it’s not even tied for 7th, and no movie not at least tied for 7th has EVER won Best Picture) and the two snub rule (DGA plus Oscar directing snubs, WGA and Oscar screenplay snubs, SAG ensemble snub and no Oscar acting nominations = directing, writing and acting weakness).

What needs to happen in order for Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood to become the system’s final stats favorite:

– it needs to win one more major guild than Jojo Rabbit. Jojo might win: PGA (possible, but doesn’t seem very likely… Green Book, Argo, Little Miss Sunshine, Moulin Rouge!, Apollo 13 and Driving Miss Daisy have done this withoug directing nominations at the Oscars, but only Little Miss Sunshine and Apollo 13 hadn’t first won the Globe for picture – nor the Critics Choice, in their cases), SAG ensemble (also unlikely – posted some stats a few days ago, in a reply to john smith), WGA (possible but not very likely – probably even less than The Irishman). Once might win: PGA (definitely possible… Birdman, Little Miss Sunshine and Brokeback Mountain have done it without editing nominations at the Oscars, all in the last 14 years; also, 14 of the last 21 BFCA BP winners won the PGA as well), SAG ensemble (very likely, co-favorite with The Irishman according to the stats, with Parasite also entirely possible), DGA (also possible, but a lot less likely: Roma, Birdman and Brokeback Mountain are the ones that have done it without editing nominations at the Oscars most recently, however, only Birdman also did it without winning either the Globe or the Critics Choice for directing first). So, overall, I would say it’s quite likely Once wins more big guilds than Jojo Rabbit, looking at all of this.

– it needs to win one major guild more than Parasite. Once’s expected wins, based on the above, are, for me, around 1.5 wins (something like 40%-50% for SAG ensemble, 50%-70% for PGA and some slight chances for a DGA win added to all of that). Parasite might win: PGA (not very likely… in the SAG era, only The Return of the King and Moulin Rouge! have won the PGA with zero SAG acting nominations, but no foreign film, not even Roma or Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, has ever won the PGA), SAG ensemble (maybe 15%-20%), DGA (Roma, The Return of the King and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon won the DGA without any SAG acting nominations, and two of those were foreign… I would say it’s on at least 60%-70% here), WGA (I think highly unlikely – has a foreign film EVER won the WGA? Not since 1984, I know that). Its total expectancy looks to be around 1 win. So, Once getting one more than that is doable, but far from certain.

– it’s actually irrelevant to Once’s chances whether Parasite or Jojo Rabbit lose the WGA and get eliminated by the two snub rule, because my system doesn’t allow a WGA-ineligible movie with at least one major non-screenplay industry snub to be picked as the favorite over a movie eliminated by the WGA+1 rule unless it’s ahead of it in the count. (This, courtesy of the crazy Three Billboards year…) However, it would help it in terms of the count, obviously.

– it needs to win two major guilds more than The Irishman. And The Irishman might win: PGA (extremely unlikely, I would say, since no movie in the BFCA era has won the PGA without wins for picture/director/screenplay at either the Globes or Critics Choice), SAG ensemble (40%-50%), DGA (almost as unlikely as Once/Tarantino winning this, since no movie in the last 16 years has won this vs. TWO different Globe or Critics Choice-winning directors), WGA (also seems unlikely to me, honestly, looking at precedents – Little Women should be the favorite here, after the BFCA win, since the last BP-nominated BFCA winner to be eligible for and lose the WGA appears to be Lincoln, 7 years ago -, but certainly not THAT unlikely, so let’s give it 25%-30% here)! So, its total expectation is also around one win. Which, if it does get it, might be difficult to beat for Once, but I, personally, don’t see The Irishman winning any of these. If it does, it’s perhaps likely to become the Best Picture front runner and stay there until the end…

So, to sum up: I think it’s most likely still between Once and Parasite, with The Irishman and Jojo Rabbit as dark horses, but no more than that. For Once to become the final stats favorite, according to my system, I think it’s most important that it win SAG Ensemble, as that is how it can prevent its main rivals (Parasite and The Irishman) from getting one of THEIR most likely big guild wins. Looking at the favorites for each of the four, I would say Parasite is the front runner for the DGA (not sure whether 1917 is in second place or not – the Oscar stats it’s facing for the directing win might be just as strong at the DGA), Once for the PGA and SAG, and none of the not-yet-eliminated BP contenders is the favorite to win the WGA (but The Irishman seems most likely, out of only the top four in BP – well, the three that are eligible). Assuming a DGA win for Parasite and a PGA win for Once (the Critics Choice split scenario), then Once absolutely NEEDS to win Best Ensemble to win the count. (Otherwise Parasite will have -3 and Once will have -3.5.) So, basically, this year’s Best Picture race might actually be decided by SAG Ensemble, which isn’t something one gets to say very often. 🙂 (Or at least us stats people don’t…) I think it will win SAG Ensemble and probably also PGA, so I’m still predicting it to prevail at the Oscars, too. (Still unofficially, as there isn’t yet enough data for an official prediction by my stats system.)

Sorry, I haven’t seen “Children of Men”. Obviously, I need to.

Besides foreign film which I’m disappointed about, I’m generally very happy with these nominations (surprisingly).

Yup, that was my reason predicting Kang-ho, too. De Tavira-Aparicio’s case was unique to last year I suppose (thinking the supports for the film would translate to acting nominations)

My pleasure:
https://www.youtube.com/user/okonh0wp/videos

Always looking for subscribers

“(later also Crash)”

Green Book as well… In fact I’d say Green Book is the most egregious example since it won under the preferential ballot.

share a video of the stuff you make on youtube

OK. Did you predict Jamie Foxx?

Hey Ary Vandelay do you want to be a guest on my youtube channel. We would have a discussion via skype/fb chat

Sorry but each decade starts with year 1 and ends every year 10, there’s no such thing as year “0” Decade is not over…

Saw it. Thought that baby scene was a bore and didn’t fit the movie at all. Everyone I went with said the same. Still a great movie.

This year’s Actors and Supp. Actors are really a step-up from last year’s race. I’d argue, however, the Actress and Supp. Actress race were a step-down compared to last year’s (not much tho).

Good looking out, Sammy. I have real problems with the movie’s almost total skirting of the Church’s abuse horrors. But the two of them gave truly excellent performances. Try to think of two actors, even if you stick roughly within their age range, who could have performed these roles better. I can’t think of any.

Not to mention Chicago, Beautiful Mind, and Gladiator won when the ceremony was held in late March as opposed to late February/early March like they do now..

Also, Metacritic was founded in 1999, but I believe it didn’t become a big thing like it was now until around say 2008-ish.

You said you were “out” and this site is dedicated to Oscar awards so why are you still commenting? Awards Daily is not about best films or critics choice. It is about the Oscars and awards potential. Just ask Sasha…

I make the same mistakes I often make which is overanalyze statistically. I should hjave trusted my gut on Kathy Bates when everyone else said she was out. The academy loves here and she hasn’t been nominated in 16 years. THAT should have been the deciding factor.

Fortunately, I didn’t make that mistake on Pryce and Hopkins. Cha-ching!

It is a day of celebration for Joker fans! https://media1.giphy.com/media/xgcGEUQf63fqg/giphy.gif

No, men being consistently rewarded while talented women go unrecognized is not “personal”. It’s societal. And there are only two genders (more or less), so fairness between the two is not some distant shiny object we can never hope to reach.

SHAME on the Documentary branch.

In both Sound categories, too.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/82IKB3BDY6PJ7o25b0/giphy.gif

I think the only lock for Parasite is obviously for “International Feature Film,” and it may win some other awards if there’s real passion for it, even if it doesn’t win Best Picture.

However, the most important thing to happen today is that it was nominated. Also, I want to mention that a Korean film was also nominated for Documentary Short Subject, “In the Absence.” To me, that breaks down the wall (whatever it was) that was preventing Korean filmmakers from being nominated at the Oscars and shows it is possible. The nomination is more important than the win because the nomination gets you invited to the nominees luncheon/big show, invited as a member of the Academy, and a permanent record for your film as an Oscar nominee.

Before Ang Lee won his first of 2 Best Director Oscars, there never was a director of color who won the Best Director Oscar, and now there are four directors who’ve won 7 (Lee 2, Cuaron 2, Inarritu 2, and Del Toro 1). Hopefully, it’s more like that and not what happened with Kathryn Bigelow’s win for Best Director. No other woman has won since or been nominated more than once for Best Director.

I have 1917 winning Score, but its close.

I think Bong still has a very decent shot at directing. But rest I agree.

No Midsommer for production design is insanity, not than anyone was predicting it.

After the nominations I think;

Picture: Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood
Directore : Sam Mendes
International : Parasite
Editing: Ford vs. Ferrari

I would be happy with…

Picture – Jojo Rabbit (I still haven’t seen it, but it is the kind of film I would love to see winning) or Parasite

Director – Bong Joon-Ho or Marty

Actor – Banderas

Actress – Erivo (haven’t seen it, but Oscars so white, and I do not think Scarlett deserves it for this horrible film)

Supporting Actor – Pesci

Supporting Actress.- Any of them. Even Dern, despite the film’s being one of my most hated from the year

Adapted Screenplay – Jojo (Taika forever)

Original Screenplay – Parasite

Cinematography – The Lighthouse (I mean, come on!!!)

Editing – The Irishman

Production Design – 1917

Costume – The Irishman

Make Up – Joker

Music – Joker

Song – Rocketman (or Dianne Warren’s… 11th nomination, people, and no win!!!)

Sound Mixing – 1917

Sound Editing – 1917

VFX – Avengers Endgame

Animated – I lost my body

International – Pain and Glory

Can you please explain your question?

Let’s hope so man!! Parasite, OUATIH and The Irishman are the three BP nominees this year I wouldn’t mind watching sweep everything.

Picture, Original Screenplay: Nomadland
Director: Wes Anderson (The French Dispatch)
Adapted Screenplay, Actress: Blonde and Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Actor: Gary Oldman (Mank)
Supporting Actor: someone (probably Frank Langella) (Trial of the Chicago Seven)
Supporting Actress: Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite)

It’s not dead of course, I still consider it a weakened frontrunner.
But if it didn’t win, we can go back to this and point to the reason why.
Birdman had an excuse to miss, Hollywood didn’t, so it’s something.

Then let the Korean Academy reward its movie, not “meandering Hollywood”

I’d put him in 3rd behind Phoenix and Driver. But I’m just thrilled he got in!

there’s no second place. there’s zellweger and there are also-runs.

Thanks for sharing your experience with me. And obviously you and GregoireNYC are far from alone in your reactions. Mine was just quite different. Maybe my Dell laptop screen beautifies? 🙂

Sound a bit over-pessimistic. 🙂 Stats OFTEN trump narrative. Sure, sometimes it’s the other way around (especially/exclusively outside of BP), but not enough to conclude Mendes is the favorite, if you ask me.

Parasite or Roma?

Military bore? Have you seen 1917?

Then I must respect that. Thank you for a lively exchange. Have a wonderful rest of the awards season.

This is ‘my’ ballot. Not my predictions. I have OUATIH first in my predictions.

No, it does not give voice to an uncomfortable sentiment.

Yes it does, as your next sentence shows.

It’s rude, disrespectful of the actual nominees, and it presents an opinion as a fact. It’s not a fact that any woman deserved to be there.

It’s a fact that women are almost never nominated for Best Director, even when, as this year, they direct some of the year’s most acclaimed films.

This aggressive PC culture will lead to a lot of mediocrity being celebrated in the next few years.

As opposed to this year, when a mediocre film like Joker has the most nominations?

I would say Charlize Theron might be the one in second place at the moment.

You might want to hold up there on Dern.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d064adab741779887837f937e3970667d6863600d97baedaf337e7b3bd540bc9.gif

I meant directing. Edited.

It’s not about quotas, it’s about the consistent undervaluing of female directors and frequently the subjects that they choose to focus on.

Yes. right. Great film. But it’s a very competitive category this year.

Not that much out of the blue. It was similar to Roma in the “sound” sense. I predicted it for both sound categories.

yep, I don’t give a shit about quotas. if they think these men are more deserving by all means stick to your guns, don’t crack under pressure for it;ll never end.

There were other Asian actors in contention this year.

I just dont see Once Upon winning anything but screenplay and supporting actor. And even those I would give to other more worthy nominees

It can be still very alarming and the frontrunner at the same time. It probably moved from strong frontrunner to weak frontrunner in a wide open race.

At the very last minute, I took out Cynthia Erivo for Awkwafina because I thought people wouldn’t look past Harriet, but I was so wrong. And I’m ok to be wrong because even Harriet was a so-so movie, Erivo was fantastic!

a flame thrower. *evil*

I need people’s 13 month predictions for Best Picture 2021

I’m just not sure where Irishman wins besides BP. It needs a BD win, a screenplay win, an acting win somewhere and I don’t think it does. Therefore I think it’s behind the others. Just my perception…maybe it’s the frontrunner and wins all those

yes and he’s white and Hispanic yet they count him as PoC which he isn’t and isn’t trying to pass for one (unlike Oscar Isaac).

I know, that’s why I’m not actually surprised. Just frustrated. They had so many chances to correct that this year.

we must have watched a different film. perhaps you saw it on your iphone 4 ?

The Academy has a massive blind spot when it comes to nominating Asian actors. Asian-themed movies can get nominated for Best Picture (”Crouching Tiger”) or even win (”The Last Emperor,” ”Slumdog Millionaire”), but the performers IN those movies didn’t rate any acting nominations.

Not alarming. 1917 or Joker are winning Best Picture. Once Upon might get a couple of awards.

Idk might say it was well compensated for by that Sound Editing nom which was really out of the blue. Also DiCaprio getting in is a good sign. Not sure wtf happened in the editing dept.

Why do you always have to be so bitter?

That’s funny cause I went with all the right nominees except had those two that missed you mentioned and left both Popes off. Then I had Us over Harriet in Actress and MacKenzie over Bates in Sup Actress. So I went 4/5 in ever acting category.

Slumdog won SAG ensemble though. 1917 has no acting support

I don’t think it’s that, but maybe.

But what if it wins WGA as well? You can’t rule that out yet. But what else can it win with BP apart from Screenplay? It needs to upset in Supporting Actress as well, not just screenplay.

1917 also missed editing but is nominated for BP and BD.

Joker does not seem like a consensus choice to me.

I’d love for Bong to win BD, but the narrative has decided it’s Mendes for his directing a war film with one take. These are type of gimmicks they love.

The Farewell would do better without Parasite but I think A24 messed up with Uncut Gems. Christmas release? Seriously? It would have benefited from good publicity of box office. And all their BP nominees have the same pattern – festival, October/November release. When it comes July or sooner, they fail.

No ATLANTICS really bums me out.

You make some interesting points. I thought the SAG is where the race will probably be decided. This is why I refuse to rule out The Irishman. It looks dead pretty much, it SAG and WGA could happening. It’s fave for the latter and can easily win the former. I think Hollywood will SAG to end the race. But BD is the big question, for me. I think 1917 has been getting the narrative and its wins at GG and BFCA tie and surprise screenplay nod tell it’s probably winning. The narrative say it wins even if the stats say different. DGA could anyone’s. That has not been the case for a long time.

South Korean filmmakers should have exploded in the US since the early 2000s. In my opinion, the trio Bong Joon-ho, Park Chan-wook, and Kim Ki-duk (or Lee Chang-dong) are better than Three Amigos.

Nobody is made uncomfortable anymore. that ship has sailed. DGA and Director’s branch did not yield to twitter outrage this time around and that’s a good thing.

Today’s headlines ought to read i put it best way possible across all Hollywood press online and in print:

“No Joke the Academy finally gains common sense…with JOKER leading with 11 noms above even Once Upon a Time and 1917!!!”

this would be the subtext before the main story: “.embraces overwhelmingly big screen movies that are for all and films most talked about with only Irishman dominating for netflix (10/15 for netflix)” this is how if i were a journo i would cover the verdict of this years oscars:

Netflix has failed to back in a most nominated film in this years Academy awards and it IS a big deal. After Roma failed to win best picture very recently as netflix’s sole flagbearer.. hopes were high after Netflix appointed officials who had decent reputations until they backed in their futures at netflix..that The Irishman would equal lead nominations at very least and that the only other nominee yes, netfflix get a second contender questionable (given the broader public declining interest in these types of movies) in ‘Marriage Story’ but many would agree that ‘Judy, Endgame, The Lighthouse, Just Mercy, Rocketman, and particularly ‘Knives out’ would been far more worthy replacement to ‘Marriage Story’. In truth it appears The Academy’s self denial unable or unwilling to accept that social media and twitterati ought simply be ignored as they do not reflect the traditional Academy way and spirit is SOLE reason netflix got as many noms as they did this year,.

And just like that i will not waste my breath with Netflix for it be lucky to win more than few oscars ROMA did that year wont win best picture, director maybe screenplay. For what huge injustice that would do to the lead nominee this year that as most of lead nominees this year reflect broad spectrum of communal and broader public sentiment of the films public care about the most and in fact if we rate half oscar contenders they are indeed reflective of films public most enthusiastic about..

1. Joker 11 noms
2.1917 10 noms
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 10 noms
4. The Irishman 10 noms * (denotes counts in no of noms but cant possibly be amongst most publicly talked about movies really cos wasn’t open in enough cinemas ONLY due to aggressive ego of netflix marketing machine)

In Short for particularly the top 3 films, The Academy have decided to embrace logic..not just rescue their ratings but their broader credibility with BOTH the public and the film industry within itself…with a call for unity not division by embracing the TRUE BEST FILMS OF THE YEAR no less that films most talked about who mark is indelligble who impression and impact is felt like a tidal wave slamming into an ocean bedrock at furious speed.

But what a triumph even if it doesn’t win that The Joker is the lead nominee..I predicted 9 nominations and i be most impressed with that. Not only that make no mistake though it a different film the principle applies…this has been the year of the comic- book adaptation juggernaut rocketing into the consciousness, minds and hearts and conquering film industry and SAVING Hollywood from losing profits…it the year that the blockbuster event films can blow away critics (Avengers: Endgame) and divide critics (Joker) but all commanded public admiration discussed in your local coffee shop..you laughed you cried you were shaken to the core (Joker) you mourned- you cheered and you jeered..isn;t this what best films of year should be about? the characters take you on at very least truly memorable if not unforgettable journey, their world they in defines their purpose portrayed to us as a cavalcade mish- mash of reflections of parts of the world we in today..(despite JOKER set in the great depression- incredibly bold given the contemporary unorthodox nature of the central character and fundamental parts of the plot- i mean you be forgiven for thinking film is set in the great depression hardly an era in it time for being given a triple whammy in the face as JOKER truly does more so than any other nominee this year!)

But though Endgame got unforgiveably snubbed in like at very LEAST all tech categories save visual effects but oh how gravely mistaken the academy is to dismiss Endgame , particularly the ‘time travel scenes’ authentic costumes, diverse production design for broader cosmos and certain sets on earth and again back in time, and to pigeonhole Endgame as just visual effects when truly it should broken record if it were not which it didn’t get nominate for pic, director and screenplay (at very least picture screenplay for major categories it clearly deserved for it game changing crticially acclaimed blockbuster defining generational achievement- most significant since Return of the King i may add). If we to be Honest…how many films do you know that have a script and up to 4-5 different settings in time frames, timelines and place seemingly so complex but oh so accessible for public experience…but i digress the Academy once again like they have in the past..lack THAT level of boldness and courage and common sense at highest of levels to embrace a flawed but generation defining masterpiece means so much to well pretty much entire world and every cineplex and person who lives near every single one just too big for academy to handle? perhaps? most likely,.

But why am i whining? majority of film going public would be in awe here for one film inparticular THE JOKER. for make no mistake the spirit of “The Dark Knight” has long haunted the academy. many on websites and in the press and film public at large were in disbelief that especially considering supporting actor oscar was won (funnily enough for playing (the joker)) could we be looking at most successfully character portrayal of same character by two different actors to win oscars in all of oscar history here? is The Joker myth and legend and comic super villain set to be immortalized in Oscar history? no joke it COULD and very likely would happen.

Though “The Dark Knight” is different style film, it is a) despite it unforgiveable snub many still grumble about to this day, became the first comic adaptation film to deliver one oscar and get nomination in a major category ever at the oscars in supporting acting which leads to b) the central character that won for supporting actor was ‘ the joker’ much like the general principle of the character nominated again…14 years about later! But the dark tones and style…a style make no mistake whether he admits it or not surely added in a complimentary way rather than primary influence to PHoenix portrayal of JOKER. So there is evidence to suggest this year the ghost of the overall Dark Knight snub that year for best picture, screen play and director weighs heavily on oscar voters this year. How else can you explain that JOKER leads the field and i only had film having 9 nominations “only” 9!

Or maybe it is the fact that this film breaks the mould in so many ways at so many levels..it not a straight up comic movie..it could resemble anyone in a desperate state during the great depression of which there are true instances not necessarily of each specific event portrayed in JOKER, but moreover in the Great Depression people did desperate stupid things systems of social welfare did collapse and support…to people who developed or were born respectfully i say as somoeone myself that has affliction of a mild mental health disorder- according to psychological official ‘definitions’ (for real i do so if you mock that go fuk yourself nobody deserves to pay heed to your null and avoid exploitation of me sharing that fact)- could not cope without support..and governments in great depression were in financial damage control..as banks closed…shops closed record amounts of unemployment unparalleled even today and a system cracking straining under the weight of pressure of millions of Americans and make no mistake when America goes, so too, does rest of the world. Whilst the Great Depression hit Americans hardest it shockwaves weighed massively even if not as much as the USA. Desperate times saw people resort to desperate measures..make no mistake whether your for or against it, lack of gun control ensured shootings and killing with primary crime of shooting for money.

But one could speculate there were lunatics out there who exploited prayed on the rich or people just shot others out of anger and rage to lack of support.

Whilst the Joker in “JOKER” is fictiious character in terms of his specific personality..the very environment, sense of place and setting is what defines the characters actions, what he can get away with and why in short during the Great Depression – this is what drives, motivates and in turns defines a character. In fact one of the most unspoken little talked about achievements of “JOKER:” is that the setting and backdrop shapes, enhances the stature of central character’s increasing commanding presence- by the surely favourite of contenders to win best actor in Joaquin Phoenix of the field of nominees, this film does what no other film in manys memory does the character shaped far more by its setting place than any other character in any other film where setting BECOMES the character and the character reflects the increasing growing chaos in the setting.

But if JOKER were purely character driven it would not got in for best picture nomination it a fallacy to suggest it all about one character it about the chaos the carnage and problems the great depression cause aroundf the character as seen THROUGH the eyes of the central character but more broadly this film is most afflicting, panful unforgettable drama that every bit as tremendous at the dramatic level as not just ‘taxi driver’ but you could argue though some may object any other movie depicting a seminal mentally ill driven person driven insane by circumstances they are faced with, but this film is like a modern day ‘Rambo’ potentially too..

But bottom line is COMIC BOOK adaptations do NOT need be only reflecting their comic origins in a realistic context they can work when expanding in thought and deeper understanding particularly as an origin story like JOKER- by translating adaptation from a comic to deeper level of powerful unforgettable drama can be taken very seriously by the academy even if it doesn’t win and it clearly deserves to win which means it may fall short JOKER’S mark will be indellible and outlast in it impression on film audiences and it LESSONS to critic socialist elite with their overbloated unhealthy egos distorting their judgement of what is true best film of the year each year for near on 15 years at least ever since onset of internet rise to prominence in social media- and much like the anti- hero who we all cheer for (dare i say it given he sole killer of many people in the film)- JOKER legacy will live on for future origin story or even one day one day a “Avengers Endgame” style domination of academy is waiting in the winds in the future anything is possible especially with JOKER scoring 11 noms..it would be slightly less big deal if it did not get a fukin editing nomination! but JOKER is one of very few this year to score best director, picture, editing, and screenplay AND lead actor nominations.

IT all more extraordinary as i quite sure it lowest budget film out of Hollywood to turn over 20-25 times it measley budget in terms of captivating audiences to break record for R- rated film that IS a big deal and the academy now knows it..so much so they made it lead the field it not a JOKE the Joker is REAL and it mark makes huge bold statement that realism and creativity is what true best films of the year is about when you cant distinguish between fictitious character and setting and place you have a masterpiece, a lead contender at minimum a serious dark horse to win best picture so i have to question judgement of no of you rating JOKER no higher than 5th on average as chance winning best picture.

It does not matter anymore that DGA snubbed JOKER, or at Globes it didn’t breakthrough..it WILL in SAG win for PHoenix and he got the globe secured…actors rule right? and no need for multiple actors..merged with clearly large enough volume of voters at academy to make it lead the bloody oscars this year and score critical big noms that less than half of films nominated have means it is in my view should be in many ytour views, particularly that it made the cut for film editing, means it no.3 at worst for best picture and at most no,.2 ought to be on all your lists.

No JOKE Joker is a masterpiece in eyes of film industry now too and film goers the critics been given the finger..and this is way or should be win or lose best picture there every chance it win most oscars or second most by time this year done and dusted. No film has been more talked about as this film of all nominated. and rightfully so.

However the Tarantino ‘i owe you’ factor looms large this year i predict a split between best picture and best director. It cannot be understated i pretty sure that for first time in oscar history nearly 50% of nominees or 43% let say of bizarre no of 9 (should have been 10 nominees) have landed double digit nominations and as well next 3 most nominated films of Irishman OUATIH and 1917 all have 10 nominations. I do not believe it EVER been the academy has been so generous and fair too to films (most of them nominated save Irishman which deserved handful less nominations than it got) 10 nominations apiece tied for second most nominated film amazing it like OScar have woken up realised give what mostly other contenders deserve ratehr than stingy mentality of for instance.. an outright double digit lead nominee and every other contender 2 oscars behind the other say 11 noms for lead in any other year in principle, then 9, then 7 then 5- more often than not in past oscar years, for far too long the next 2-3 lesser nominated films for best pic get nominations total far less than they earnt and deserved.

History beckons here..as i do not think a war film fails to get an editing nom,..given talking point is editing or maybe, lack of, 1917 the film that i do believe is the favourite to win best picture even if in my view JOKER clearly deserves to comfortably so given NOBODY expected asfter mixed critics reaction this film would impact it peers and film audiences to record breaking heights and dramatic impact film has had so much more than other nominees..but 1917 has the buzz you cannot ignore that but no editing noms? maybe? makes sense after all it is literally first ever genre film let alone war film to do one continuous shot- can a film driven by amazing cinematography minus editing win best picture? it be a stat breaker make no mistake and given lack of war films winning best picture in modern times..really not since ‘Hurt Locker’ but moreover so infrequent wins in oscar history with average of 30 years between wins for war films- could it be first era 2 war films win best picture in a 20 year time span? or be specific 2 in 15 years? it way past time for that to happen. and why not? i wouldn’t have problem at all 1917 winning best picture but if that happen JOKER has to win at least best adapted screenplay and could well if doesn’t win best picture or best director.

Answer according to letter of the lore of the Academy Once Upon a Time in Hollywood a film itself starts with glorious hollywood descending into darkness and anarchy marked by a seminal parody of serious manson murders and twistting that event on it head..but Tarantino factor could cancel out 1917 but i think split year on cards i really do. Tarantino OUATIH has been talked about all year even when JOKER won big in Venice – another significant factor in itself based on tendency recent oscar winners i think just over half of them in last decade after winning in venice, telluride, cannes, rightly in some cases, wrongly in most have gone on nevertheless win best picture, but Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is Tarantino’s most un turned pro- Tarantino ending style films but for duration of most of its time it unusual conservative Tarantino when director goes against type that they known for they win best director more often than not. Also, that Dicaprio (halleluyah thank goodness he get a truly deserved overdue nomination) is just nomnated when so called ‘experts’ had big doubts academy would they do that makes Once Upon a Time in Hollywood a big threat for best picture.

MY 3 in this order rated by % of chance winning best picture are:

1. 1917- 93%
2. Joker- 88%
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- 85%

just for some perspective:
4. The Irishman- 65% honestly let be honest here netflix fad is starting wear thin behind the scenes it was most hyped film BEFORE realeased on netflix and though got 10 noms it failed to score critical wins anywhere at all..even Joe Pesci who done better acting roles frankly and hype of Scorsese first De-niro- PAcino collaboration has died down film itself feels dated truth is it more sympathy acknowledgement more to point of netflixes arrogant pushy bullying agressive marketing than quality of films competing.

But the biggest shock then is the massive gap which also is close to if not a a record that after the top 4 most nominated films…you have:

5. Parasite
6. JO JO Rabbit
7.Little Women
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford Vs. Ferrari

with an average between them of 4 nominations and next most PArasite undeserving with 6 nominations but still huge gap between this pack PArasite and Irishman a 4 nomination gap is significant and frankly i think only a thimble full of times in oscar history a film scoring best picture even in critical categories like PArasite hitting the mark in major categories but despite the overhyped hoopla of this foreign film, very few films if any since the 90’s have won best picture with only 6 total nominations.

Quantity DOES equate quality and the Academy nominations have spoken..But i will not complete this without squaring on the Academy for the so severely undermining in form of only 4 oscar nominations for Ford Vs. Ferrari a film that is most significant all round best rounded movie of the bunch it makes you laugh, bittersweet ending certainly highly dramatic without going overboard it technically challenging to be marvelled at it recreation of lemans and shooting in all manner of weather conditions is a feat few modern films achieve- depth and breadth of multiple characters and that it more than just a racing movie but piece of pivotal inspirational history for industry and for anyone that wants to be recognized with genuine talent and gifts as the duo in Ford vs. Ferrari achieve, and i must say ‘Knives Out’ so seriously deserved to be a contender too snubs always make academy look bad but hard to complain to poijnt of overshadowing deserved lead nominations by Joker, then 1917 (potentially i dont know really till i see it but i give benefit of doubt there based on buzz and OUATIH).

So i pleased to say this year the positive headlines overshadow the negative thoughts and potential headlines..Despite some really bad snubs at least Ford Vs. Ferrari made cut for best pic bravo academy to resisting social media pressure you may have just saved your hide in ratings war and your public reputation your challenge regardless who wins so long as it NOT a netflix film is to keep this re discovered momentum of true best films of year the top 3 getting double digit nominations going.,

Oh, thanks. I missed it.

Different times. if Marty was in contention with Taxi driver and King of Comedy together with Joker than you can make a case. But how they voted then and now are 2 different things.

Rocketman got song so not nothing

If you look at the voters collectively , then 1917 is a very hard sell to win BP , even foreign language parasite has more chance ….. a movie about the swinging 60’s set in Hollywood will fit seamlessly into the voter’s group psyche ..many of those elderly voters will have fond memories of those times

Did people here complain about that in Call Me By Your Name, The Social Network, The Hurt Locker, Life of Pi, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Departed, There Will be Blood and many others BELOVED films that were championed here over the years?

I guess the intrinsic prejudice here is a mix of ageism and elitism. Elitism because Joker and FvF are popular hits and Irishman is headed by a bunch of seventies.

Biggest story of the day is A24 = 0

And the two films that received the most critics awards are BP, BD and Screenplay nominated – The Irishman and Parasite.

The two films that won the most prestigious film festivals in the world are nominated – Parasite and Joker.

Problem is not that. Problem is that you seem to think that art film is a right that comes from the cool American kids of NYU or with cool quirky Hollywood stars.

And I bet Sammy is so happy about both of the Popes getting in! Sammy you’ll be very happy to know I put them both in my predictions at the last minute, taking out Taron Egerton and Song Kang-Ho.

John Smith, thank you, based on your taste and comments here I thought you would be warm to it. I can’t urge my #1 more as it has stayed with me almost 12 months. Though it did get a nod for Best Foreign Film last year it didn’t open in US theaters until the third week of January at Manhattan’s Film Forum. That is the manner i do my lists as obviously it would have missed my January 1 cut off to make the year end list last year. Same thing with the French film Les Miserables which garnered a Best International Film nom today but doesn’t open here for two more weeks. So I count it for 2020.

I meant acting OR editing, of course. Corrected. They need both.

No, my animus on the subject is personal.

I am no fan of JOKER but the Director’s branch is far more significant methinks than the DGA as we are talking about the Oscars here. Phillips’ popularity with the AMPAS directors and with the Academy in general with the leading 11 nons speaks volumes. **heaven help us**

Good Lord, did they over-nominate Joker.

Editing I can understand, actor was packed, no chance there. I still think it has a chance. More than Jojo!!

In the majors. A24 lost nominations to Harriet and Richard Jewel. Pretty mediocre year.

1917 was always getting snubbed here. They hate long takes. They snubbed birdman, they snubbed Roma. OUATIH is a shock. Let’s see where we go from here

Stats wise very glad 1917 got in for screenplay. Still a longshot for BP but in with a chance

Judy took the music bio-pic oxygen from Rocketman this year.

I am very happy that she didn’t get the nomination too. Since the begning, it was Jennifer Aniston “Cake” all over again. Artificial hype is not achievement.

It’ll need to win OSP along with BP now… Or BD but that seems less likely.

Ok, that makes sense.

Interesting. And Eeepp!

All the more reason I like Parasite best. 🙂

Oh and OUATIH in editing

Weakest ??? Oh come on ;)) are you ok ???? Delusional

Joker can’t win

Too true , its a hollow, movie and as war movies go, not even a good one … the voters, especially female, will never go for that …7/10 at best

Well, I’d rather see them give “something” to Jojo Rabbit if we are talking preferences.

I agree on the editing snub being overreacted to but I disagree on OUATIH still being the frontrunner. I think it’s now going toe-to-toe with Parasite and the PGA and SAG in five days will finally decide that race for good. 1917 has never been and will never be in contention, it’s not even above JoJo Rabbit when it comes to BP chances, I said it from the beginning after I saw the film.

When I saw 1917 this weekend, I have to say: It reminded me of Ad Astra. Just in a World War I setting. (And minus baboons). Liked both, probably didn’t ‘love’ either, but I liked Astra better.

Also – I still think one of the biggest downsides of the season was Pitt’s performance in that movie being ignored.

Daniel I would LOVED to see A Hidden Life, Waves, Uncut Gems, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, The Lighthouse get some recognition.

twice as useless

It’s didn’t fit well for Roma last year.

Ford v Ferrari in BP!!!!

The only film to score everything?

YEAH. The DEAD The Irishman.

HOLLYWOOD SNUBBED FOR EDITING KLAXON!!!!

Once upon a time missed editing! That is kinda big!

Yay. I got 5 for 5 in Cinematography!!

Parasite for Editing. Hmmm.

Oh shit no Frozen 2!

I don’t even who you are but, yeah, see ya.

I think a foreign film will win some day. It might be a while, or it might be this year. 🙂 But I don’t think this barrier will be there forever…

Agreed. And Supporting Actress is even worse. Both lineups are probably the weakest of the decade.

Don’t worry next year, we’ve got Jennifer Hudson as Aretha, and the year after that Timotheeeeeeeee as Dylan. It’s going to take a few more years of the Dewey Cox Jukebox BioPic to stop hoovering up Oscars.

I would reverse 1 and 2. And 3 and 4. The fact that Joker topped the nominations is a reflection of the type of film it is — one that gets a lot of guild noms like costume, makeup and hair, and both sound categories. Joker is too divisive to win a preferential ballot, but not to garner individual noms in individual categories.

The average age of the Supporting Actor nominees is 71.2. That has to be a record.
4 of the nominees are receiving their first nomination since 9/11.
All 5 nominees are Oscar winners. The one who didn’t win for Acting is the frontrunner.

many of those are wrong

Yay Parasite and Jojo in Production Design!

It’s a major contender that has a costume that people remember. Not shocking, even if the pool that I used to collect possibilities (BFCA, BAFTA, CDG) didn’t have it

Supporting actor is literally the most common lineup this season

And Annie Wilkes.

Oh you idiots snubbing Atlantics.

Obviously not compared to Joker, but The Favourite actually earned 96 million on a 15 million budget. An indie hit if I ever saw one.

To point out that male nominees are men “cheapens” them how exactly?

Lopez was always on the fence. I had her out prior to the nominations.

OUATIH is still winning BP.

The editing snub doesn’t mean anything. It got the one nomination it needed to seal the deal: (original) screenplay.

It’s winning OS. Therefore, it will win BP. With the exception of The Shape of Water and The Artist, all of our recent BP winners in this era won their screenplay categories.

5 of our recent BD winners didn’t win BP. That shows how less important that stat has become over time.

1917 is no lock for BD… 1917 is a weak favourite even to win BAFTA

At DGA I’m strongly thinking Parasite. At PGA you’re probably right.

Just two days ago you were showcasing your nomination system that advertised a mix of smaller and larger films. Now you’re arguing that only big budget films should be nominated. That is very inconsistent

From day one while I thought that performance was fine…nothing about it said it was awards worthy. I never had her in the final five…just never felt it was that good.

I think I know what you’re referring to, but I don’t want to make a wrong guess. 🙂 So you’ll probably have to elaborate first, at least a little bit…

It’s an awesome score. I didn’t know her before it. But I hope she wins.

The only real threat for her is Scarlett – and she would be a classy winner!

I haven’t watched the nominations yet, but I don’t think they should make comments like “congrats to all these men!” That cheapens the announcement for the nominees. They have nothing to apologize for—-look at what they achieved in cinema.

(Im assuming this references director and is a snarky attempt at shaming If I am wrong, ignore this comment. I’m at work and can’t check.)

I was ok with being wrong in director. I didn’t want to pick Phillips so I didn’t. He kinda gets on my nerves. I was ecstatic that they weren’t shamed into picking someone.

Stop making Frozen 2 happen. It’s terrible.

I literally JUST realized JLo didn’t get in haha good. I took her out of my predix.

My best picture ballot
1 the Irishman
2 Marriage Story
3 Parasite
4 Little Women
5 1917
6 Once upon a Time in Hollywood
7. Ford vs Ferrari
8. Joker
9. Jo Jo Rabbit

FYI there are 362,880 combinations

You know I´m looking at this from a different perpective that is more focused on the nature of the films itself (without ignoring the guilds, of course).

That said, I´m with you in seeing “Jojo Rabbit” as a serious option for the win – as I already mentioned in a post a couple of days ago – based on it being the sentimental candidate (for sure, it has to prove it´s strength in winning one of the three SAG/PGA/DGA, though).

But I wouldn´t write off 1917. I have a feeling it gathered buzz lately – and it looks pretty strong coming out of today´s nominations.

Those two, plus OUATIH are up for the win, as far as I see it. I think I give up on Parasite winning, even though it would have been a history-making choice.

I mean, if you took away the titles and just looked at the categories a film was nominated in, Joker’s noms and categories are near perfect for a winner in a normal year (or at least one that could win). But, alas, it’s Joker. And I suspect it won’t do as well on a preferential ballot, but it certainly had a stellar morning. But ya never know…

I don’t agree, I think Klaus and I lost my body are great choices.
Apollo 11 was great.

I don’t understand why so many people were doubting Leonardo DiCaprio getting nominated. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had been performing so well throughout the season, and he plays an actor who’s career is going down hill, which is 90% of the actor’s branch.

I also do NOT think Jo Jo Rabbit has any chance to win remotely and The Irishman too has move away from that realm of possibility. It is really all about your 1 to 4.

What did she do in her previous career?

8 of the 10 actress nominees are blondes.

Yeah, but she doesn’t have the big transformative role Zellweger and Theron have.

Both Joker and Hollywood were nominated in the Sound Guilds. So not a surprise.

If anything deserves to win for lack of editing it’s 1917! But since the editing branch doesn’t appreciate long flawlessly cut takes we’ll never know.

I know people are making a legit fuss about Director (but seriously, in what galaxy was Melina Matsoukas a legitimate director contender for Queen and Slim?)

I’m gonna throw this into the ring: Frozen 2 was also written and co-directed by a woman. One more reason why these two, two-bit foreign animated movies got in because nobody outside of the Academy membership, perhaps saw Klaus or I Lost My Body. It was a strictly anti-Disney protest vote.

Wow, no editing nomination for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I figured that 1917 wouldn’t make it, but OUATIH not getting in there perhaps shows a weakness. It was never going to win in that category anyway, but still. I know that some common statistical trends have been broken recently (particularly the last two years in a row having Best Picture winners that didn’t get a SAG Ensemble nod), and this is the only thing OUATIH is missing. But… that’s still odd.

I looked up that there have been only 10 movies in the history of the Oscars to win Best Picture without an editing nomination. They are:

“It Happened One Night” (1934)
“The Life of Emile Zola” (1937)
“Hamlet” (1948)
“Marty” (1955)
“Tom Jones” (1963)
“A Man for All Seasons” (1966)
“The Godfather Part II” (1974)
“Annie Hall” (1977)
“Ordinary People” (1980)
“Birdman” (2014)

I think the only category I went five for five (of the major categories) was Best Picture. 🙂 It’s funny because I meant to take out Ford v Ferrari, but kept it in and had 9 Yay.

it really doesn’t

Gangs of New York went 0-10. So it’s happened to Marty before.

If Atlantics got nominated I would get even more mad at my country for not picking Bacurau which is magical realism and immensely better.

Editing is basically arranging story boards (in this case, visual information) into a meaningful length. IMO, saying longer film has bad editing is like saying thicker novel is worse than thinner ones.

ScarJo is still her only REAL competition.

Jojo would easily win last year. Easily. Even over Green Book. Problem it’s that Green Book looked on its side and there was one foreign film and one film about gross woman directed by a greek. This year Jojo looks on its side and there are films by Scorsese, Tarantino and Sam Mendes scoring a bunch of stuff.

I had this discussion with a Spanish friend years ago. Spanish people count as Hispanic

I think we can really make a case with “Joker” in the Preferential System. When they like, they like! I can not stoping comparing with “The Silence of Lambs”. “Silence of Lambs” was a film that was released in February of 1991, a horror film that was trashed by critics at the beggining because it put a transgender as a serial killer at the peak of Aids epidemic. I remember even people protesting against Jonathan Demme (He said later on an interview that “Philadelphia” was his way to apologize). But “Slience of Lambs” showed himself a phenomenon at the Oscars – anchored by a superb performance by Hopkins – that won all the 5 major awards. And for trivia: It lost all the percursors, too, as “Joker”. So, I think we can make a case here.

So you admit it’s not about “quality” or merit, but about “throwing an egg in outrage mob’s face”? Sounds about right coming from the anti-PC mob

this is a solid take on BP’s win, though I also wonder if SAG voters have a penchant for trying to stick up for a group of actors they feel are being overlooked by the rest of the race, even their own individual categories. Or perhaps I am just grasping at straws of hope

Happy:
No nomination for Atlantics
No nomination for Frozen 2 in animated feature
Nominatios for Jojo in production design and costumes
Nomination for Dcera
Nomination for I Lost My Body
No nomination for Us

Sad:
No nomination for Knives Out in BP and only one in total
No nomination for Painted Bird
No nomination for Taika Waititi in directing
Too many nominations for Joker
No nomination for Thom Yorke

And also, Parasite is more of an ensemble piece. Hard to single out one performance.

it can dominate all it wants, AMPAS, Guilds, BAFTA, GG are not yielding to Film twitter BS anymore. it was embarrassing enough that they cracked under pressure and nominated BP last year, but this year they grew balls of steel.

I’m thrilled for Jonathan Pryce and Banderas both getting in Best Actor but appalled that Dolemite missed not only for Murphy but was completely blanked, not even Costumes. Also the OscarsSoWhite talk will dominate Film Twitter in the near future.

I want her to have a surprise win over Zellweger.

It will be placed unde the letter N on the ballots, just like they did in the nominations, bro.

Hey how about that Directing snub for Jojo Rabbit?! Am I right? Taika didn’t deserve the Directing nomination. Now Jojo’s only chance of even being in contention for Best Picture is to win the PGA, which it won’t. Also, Birdman won without the Editing nomination, so don’t be so quick to jump on the anti-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood train.

Best Picture is between Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Parasite.

I think 1917 is winning BP. It will show up very highly in the voting ballots

Whats the record for youngest with most acting noms?

Probably Once will win, but Parasite has a chance in a spread the wealth type of way (Hidden Figures, Black Panther), so to award best ensemble to a film with no individual acting win, or in parasite’s case, no individual nods.
Also if Parasite is strong enough to get SAG ensemble, that probably means it wins WGA, and at least one of PGA/DGA, thus it will be the frontrunner for BP.
I think SAG is the hardest guild for Parasite to win.

Try to get a millennial to sit through Gone With the Wind and Lawrence of Arabia. Good luck!

I know. That gem of a film should have been nominated for pretty much every major award.

For the record – I don’t think Banderas counts as a POC, since he is a white European/Spaniard, but I just needed to respond to that incredibly silly “wokesters” comment

Birdman, Annie Hall, Ordinary People in the last 50 years or so

It depends on how you choose to read “International.” The US has its own categories which are almost all of them. The word “foreign” in inherently alienating so I like this change.

Both hurt, but Parasite has more hurdles so Once still likely in the front.
Once’s editing snub is way more surprising than Parasite not getting BSA nom though.
Agree that Once and Parasite are the front-runners for BP.

Why is Banderas counted as PoC when he’s Spanish, European, Caucasian? I get that Wokesters (not you) want to minimize the number of Caucasians by claiming some of them as PoC but Banderas, Bardem, Cruz are not that.

Nope, he was snubbed.

Didn’t he?

The fact that Joker and Irishman missed nothing today doesn’t mean that much.
I’ve never seen a movie with so little passion (wins nothing at the globes and almost nothing at BFCA) wins BP, but the Irishman still has somewhat of a chance, I suppose.
Joker on the other hand, is absolutely not winning BP, it can’t win the preferential ballot, and it doesn’t have DGA or SAG.
Best Picture chances IMO
1. Once
2. Parasite
gap
3. 1917
gap
4. The Irishman
If Parasite managed to get that Song Kang-ho nomination, it’ll probably be in the lead with Once’s editing snub, but it didn’t. Got into production design though, still loved, clearly.

Very disappointing. That movie was THE indie movie to get Oscar buzz out of the gate. And nothing.

erivo nom has nothing to do with brits. It’s 100% American thing to nominate a pedestrian performance just because iconic history figure. happens all the time with white nominees.

I hope you are right. i’m not holding my breath but the movie is clearly much more loved and respected than Black panther which was a pure filler nom due to pressure. this is real love.

1917 will never win BP ; for a start it’s hollow and soulless like a video game … American voters don’t much care about WW1 ; it doesn’t loom large in the American psyche like it does with Brits ..they never came into the war in any serious way until the last 3 months .. I’m not even convinced it will win BP at Bafta

Masterpiece (5/5)

1917
Little Women

Excellent

Once Upon a Time in America
The Irishman
Parasite

Very Good

Jo Jo Rabbit
A Marriage Story

Enjoyable but average

Ford vs. Ferrari

Messy or outright meh

Joker

I am with you on Pryce absolutely.

I’m totally with David here. 1917 is a stone cold masterpiece.

Ah – gotcha! Birdman is another decent analogy.

Exactly right!!! It will ABSOLUTELY be one of those two films for Best Picture!! The editing omissions mean zilch for a hundred other different more persuasive reasons.

Here is the likelihood in order for me:

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Joker
4. Parasite
5. The Irishman
6. Little Women
7. Jo Jo Rabbit
8. A Marriage Story
9. Ford vs. Ferrari

Maybe the actual numbers will come close to this list?

See, I thought the same thing before the Three Billboards year!… But the thing is a movie needs to WIN the WGA to not lose points in screenplay, and I simply can’t treat a WGA ineligibility the same way I do a WGA win (by giving zero deductions in both cases). That’s clearly not right. So I have to deduct SOMETHING… And, again, it’s necessary to make The Shape of Water the favorite.

Roma also had zero SAG nominations, was Netflix, was foreign… I don’t think it’s the same thing.

And well done on the 85%!!!

oy! my dear friend i dont think anyone for length of time this site been running ANYONE has ever gone 100% before i know i nevr gone above 75% this year i struck new personal best though i undrestimated the glorious deserved Joker so i go 85% hey i happy

So, so, so happy for Jarin Blaschke and The Lighthouse! And thrilled that Parasite made the cut for Production Design and Editing. All three nominations are richly deserved.

Johansson wouldn’t be the first person to go home empty after two acting nominations at the same year.

it’s terrible. it has nothing of a story. it’s boring. it doesn’t progress the character development, it tries to be woke but fucks that up too and royaly so. it’s just an epic mess that happens to look pretty.

maybe they did it sort of on purpose to keep things interesting. Imagine OUATIH got editing nom? The race would be effectively over now.

You are vastly in the minority. Movies that are terrible don’t earn that much money. I happen to give the moviegoing populace a lot more credit than the Academy does. This is a worse snub than Nyong’o, a titanic slight itself

Second this terrific post. Didn’t you love how Issa Rae hit that word “men” just right, not belligerent, more like a stiletto? I’m totally over the Directing Branch’s all boys club. Greta should have been in there. I haven’t seen “Joker”, but wondering how much more male mayhem can we usefully absorb in our movies.

Like I told you a few days ago when you were arguing that under your system it would automatically be nominated for best picture, you can’t force voters to vote for what you want unless you ignore votes

HUGE BLOW to 1917 not get editing nomination quite unbelievable really even oscar runner up black hawk down achieved editing nom and didnt win best picture..to those rating 1917 along saving private ryan or even dunkirk have reservations now!

exactly

Really? 1917 is already in the clubhouse, while everyone else is out floundering around on the golf course

It’s Parasite instead of Joker.

yup 🙁

Frozen 2 is terrible. Klaus on the other hand is original and fantastic

Makeup

Well, Slumdog did. I’m not saying it’ll be easy but it’s still possible.

Do you happen to know how many takes/cuts are actually in the film, by chance? I’ve been trying to find that info, to no avail.

Uh, Irishman will go 0-10

well done Claudiu!

Well, there is almost always some precedent broken. I will go with the PGA winner for BP, however.

Best Picture is now an open race between Hollywood, Joker, Irishman and 1917. This puts Joker back into the race, with it leading the noms and getting director, and Hollywood missing editing, this literally blew the race open to those 4. With each four films having plus and minuses. Its a pretty exciting year, at least for Best Pic.

white people don’t either (Toni Colette, anyone?)

…vs Joker vs 1917 vs Ford vs Ferrari 😉

how can it win BP without any acting noms ?