1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood
Parasite
Animation:
Abominable
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood
Parasite
Animation:
Abominable
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Congrats on your ASC Board of Governors Award! Well done!
He’s not. Jojo is great until it starts focusing on the predictable by numbers Jojo and DAF (Discount Ana Frank). It works when it’s Jojo and his imaginary friend, it works when it’s Jojo trying to prove himself to nasty Nazi kids and failing, it works when it’s Jojo and his mom. But Jojo and DAF turns the movie from interesting and different to safe and dull run of the mill. Everything goes exactly as one expects it. Check, check, check. I get that Jojo needed a catalyst to open his eyes about his imaginary friend but it didn’t have to be this bland and predictable. A genius would know what didn’t work and see to it.
Waititi is a genius
Tarantino or Baumbach will win.
It is, but it’s the only place, and I don’t put a lot of weight on BAFTA.
Shouldn’t that be enough
Yeah it was a really big risky to make the umpteenth Little woman adaption
Shouldn’t that be enough
I feel its chances are looking good as well. People really LOVE the film and deservedly so.
You have a typo in the word “best”
Cumulating noms in a potential #OscarsSoWhite configuration would be bad optics.
I feel like picture is actually becoming really clear. If it’s not completely from within that group (probably removing knives out) pga is probably only missing 1… But I actually think remove knives out and those are your 9 nominees. DGA is probably DGA 5 – Waititi + maybe Gerwig? Though it could be Waititi – I always said he was more likely at Oscar than DGA.
Because that’s how you get Best Picture nominee Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
I’m calling it now…Knives Out takes the gold for original screenplay. People love that movie.
Holy shit hello Jojo Rabbit.
It’s not an issue of getting or not getting Gerwig’s film. As all the Green Book stuff showed, voters HATE being TOLD who to vote for.
Heh heh heh… 😀
But I seem to recall from the credits Endgame had a shit load of producers. So it’s easier to produce.
DGA announced – Tom Hooper, Elizabeth Banks, Tyler Perry, Sadfie Brothers, Ed Norton
Odd list
just kidding
No Gerwig. Fuck, Jojo is back to possible upset.
OK, assuming KO just scoring the script, who will get the boot for FvF to stay or do you think there will be 9 noms? dammit preferential ballot! if you cna nominate 9 why not 10?:cries:
You really are obsessed with this campaign no normal person was aware off. Little Women is deserving and many real men liked. Get over it.
Agreed, this is a predictable line up where KO and FvF won’t make it.
whoever gets snubbed, gerwig takes their spot.
“Twitter is up in arms about Joker.” because no one died in mass shooting that never happened, eh? Losers. Their backlash pushed Joker to popularity. it’s a big middle finger to outrage culture. they should keep seething.
Now the question becomes, which films from this list do not make the Best Picture lineup? Lately, 7-8 have made it, which means at least two from this list will not.
My guesses:
1) Knives Out
2) Ford v Ferrari or (shudder to think!) Parasite
But I do get it. This is NGNG.
I can’t see how it is possible that Mendes who could well even be the final winner would get snubbed. I think Baumbach and Phillips are out and Mendes and Gerwig are IN.
I have a feeling that Knives Out is more popular in Hollywood than we think it is. I won’t be surprised if it makes the cut along with screenplay.
If Parasite had been in English it would be the frontrunner
With the common element of Netflix backlash.
Twitter is up in arms about Joker. Critics really didn’t love it overall looking at the MC scores. But sure looks like industry does so far. Question is if if there is an opposite movie…a movie critics love that the industry isn’t going for. If there is which is it? Ford v Ferrari? Little Women?
It’s a meow-licious takedown. Dare I say it, the purr-fect crime.
As well as being the beneficiary of one of the more cynical “victimhood” internet campaigns I’ve ever ever seen in all the years of following Oscar campaigns.
Totally predictable. The probable Oscar lineup minus Knives Out.
Don’t you be doggin’ Tony. Yor, Hunter From The Future is a classic!
BP precursors are now complete, nothing too surprising stats-wise, I think most of us have these top9. Unless DGA nominates a director outside this top9, this is more ore less how I expect it to go at the Oscars, as well.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03abb95bbe90e146cf92d0feb3d2c66aa708dd66c7c904895ff2eb7eecf4b46d.png
wonder if in the end Scarlett will have 2 nominations at oscar night, she looks in good position after sag and bafta and both her movies will likely be in the BP. too bad she’s not going to win anything but that’s another story.
Solid! Seems like our top 10 for the year, just wish The Two Popes was here somewhere.
Antonio Margheriti?
The only real shocker here is Knives Out — and I am happy to see it! It’s an excellent example of taking a simple risk that has paid out beautifully — and, in retrospect, seems like a no brainer project to develop. Nice to see Ford v Ferrari still in this too.
It’s been sitting at a solid #6 or #7 for some time now.
Gonna be interesting to see which one or two misses. Knives Out seems the obvious choice, but ya never know. I had a NGNG ready for Rocketman, but if it wasn’t here, not gonna be in. Of those not here, I still think Two Popes could get in. Everything else seems not likely.
You’d have no real complaints from me.
No ENDGAME anywhere 🙁 Not that I even expected it at this point…
Honestly the only 1 of these 10 that I think may miss BP is KNIVES OUT and even that’s a dark horse… I think my predictions have BOMBSHELL in it;s place and that’s solely based on it’s SAG haul.
So far so good…
Maybe? I agree that it could be sitting in the weeds a little bit. No one really paying it that much attention…but have seen countless people ‘in the know’ say that actors love that movie.
Yup, no surprise here.
Ford v Ferrari needed this…glad it made the cut.
Pretty vanilla overall…no surprises in any sense of the word.
isn’t it nominated for Film at BAFTA?
I DO think Parasite isn’t as safe as people think it is. So far, relegated to foreign film…
No HUSTLERS?
Fail.
My feeling also. If it’s 8, probably Ford goes.
No. Watch more movies.
I think I got them all right!
KO & FvF will miss and 2 Popes will sneak in
There’s been 9 a few times
OK, sorry I have to went. I can’t believe DGA put Jojo back in Top 5. Why? seriously, it’s a cute movie that literally no one spends time discussing. it has no cultural impact whatsoever. it’s just cute. I don’t get it. this is such a cold shower. Joker was so close but fuckin comic book bias.
How about the Russo Brothers and Jennifer Lee/Chris Buck for Endgame and Frozen II respectively insread of Bong and Waititi?
real
Would prefer 2 of these to Bong and Waititi….
He’s cinema itself
Well she missed DGA so she can rest easy with that other stuff I guess.
I was baffled that he felt the need to do that.
DGA is in: Bong, Mendes, Scorsese, Tarantino, Waititi
https:/ /www. indiewire. com /2020 /01/ dga-nominations-best-director-2020-1202201273/
I do applaud them for not yeidling to outrage culture but I’m bummed that they are resurrecting Jojo of all movies. never underestimate Holocaust movie appeal. Just as I thought that 1917 was going to steal Jojo’s war thunder.
Oh well, congrats Sammy! 🙂
Can it really win with just BD, BP, Script?
That isn’t what I was saying. I was eliminating the ones that were likely to be eliminated, and lamenting that there are still going to be some sore spots left.
Wishful thinking or the list?
I’d put Todd Phillips pretending to be a victim of “political correctness” in the same category, but he’s probably getting nominated anyway.
She directed the best reviewed American wide release of the year. You can just choose not to care what Twitter thinks.
Gimme a fucking break. Just list ten movies. The fact that you were disappointed with the “contenders” is a perfect example of the kind of stupid attitude that constantly gets the same kinds of movies nominated. Watch 100 movies, list the best ten. Even if they’re silly comedies, comic book movies or whatever. Not every movie has to be a masterpiece and not every year has to have ten masterpieces. Just list the best ten of the year, for fuck’s sake.
A few stupid thinkpieces maybe the monolithic “media” not really.
KO could easily be a Screenplay only contender, but FvF has far more support across the board me thinks. Especially considering they have a potential lead actor nod.
ha ha just asked below.
So what time is DGA?
What time are the DGA noms announced?
I mean, it’s no secret that the media had it out for Joker. All that talk of incels and mass shootings, and to what end? No one shot up a theater because of it. No Elliott Rogers or Dylan Roofs. No riots in the streets. Just a few angry “news” outlets and some self-righteous Twitter accounts angry because no one went out and murdered people because of Joker.
That prediction is definitely all guts but no glory.
That film was going to make a ton of money the instant the trailers dropped. Unless you can produce a single person who can prove that the “backlash” inspired their ticket purchase, kindly sit and spin.
Agreed Sontag Twist. I too believe those two will be out. But F vs. F has a decent shot if one is to edge in.
Now the question becomes, which films from this list do not make the Best Picture lineup? Lately, 7-8 have made it, which means at least two from this list will not.
My guesses:
1) Knives Out
2) Ford v Ferrari or (shudder to think!) Parasite
If you want to eliminate the sore spots, why would Knives Out be your choice??
Exactly
We shall see. I think there are 8 locks here. Maybe Uncut Gems will be the shocker 9th nominee!
Because thinking of 10 movies is too HAAAARRRDD!
Or possibly marriage story?
Roma was my #1 choice last year. Parasite might have what it takes to win Best Picture. If it gets surprise acting nods, it might be favored. But still, very reluctant to predict it.
Baumbach more likely out than Mendes.
I would say the Irishman
No room at the inn
There is often one “surprise” director nomination. Gerwig could be it.
Offtopic: VES nominees announced (movie and TV)
Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL, AVENGERS: ENDGAME, GEMINI MAN, STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER, THE LION KING
Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
1917, FORD V FERRARI, JOKER, THE AERONAUTS, THE IRISHMAN
Outstanding Visual Effects in an Animated Feature
FROZEN 2, KLAUS, MISSING LINK, THE LEGO MOVIE 2: THE SECOND PART, TOY STORY 4
Outstanding Animated Character in a Photoreal Feature
ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL; Alita
AVENGERS: ENDGAME; Smart Hulk
GEMINI MAN; Junior
THE LION KING; Scar
Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature
FROZEN 2; The Water Nøkk
KLAUS; Jesper
MISSING LINK; Susan
TOY STORY 4; Bo Peep
Outstanding Created Environment in a Photoreal Feature
ALADDIN; Agrabah
ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL; Iron City
MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN; Penn Station
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER; Pasaana Desert
THE LION KING; The Pridelands
Outstanding Created Environment in an Animated Feature
FROZEN 2; Giants’ Gorge
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD; The Hidden World
MISSING LINK; Passage to India Jungle
TOY STORY 4; Antiques Mall
Outstanding Virtual Cinematography in a CG Project
ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL, THE LION KING, THE MANDALORIAN; The Prisoner; The Roost, TOY STORY 4
Outstanding Effects Simulations in a Photoreal Feature
DUMBO; Bubble Elephants
SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME; Molten Man
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
THE LION KING
Outstanding Effects Simulations in an Animated Feature
ABOMINABLE
FROZEN 2
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD; Water and Waterfalls
TOY STORY 4
Outstanding Compositing in a Feature
ALITA: BATTLE ANGEL
AVENGERS: ENDGAME
CAPTAIN MARVEL; Young Nick Fury
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
THE IRISHMAN
Outstanding Special (Practical) Effects in a Photoreal or Animated Project
ALADDIN; Magic Carpet
GAME OF THRONES; The Bells
TERMINATOR: DARK FATE
THE DARK CRYSTAL: THE AGE OF RESISTANCE; She Knows All the Secrets
Television
Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Episode
GAME OF THRONES; The Bells
HIS DARK MATERIALS; The Fight to the Death
LADY AND THE TRAMP
LOST IN SPACE – Episode 97
STRANGER THINGS – Chapter Six: E Pluribus Unum
THE MANDALORIAN; The Child
Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Episode
CHERNOBYL; 1:23:45
LIVING WITH YOURSELF; Nice Knowing You
THE CROWN; Aberfan
VIKINGS; What Happens in the Cave
Outstanding Animated Character in an Episode or Real-Time Project
LADY AND THE TRAMP; Tramp
STRANGER THINGS 3; Tom/Bruce Monster
THE MANDALORIAN; The Child; Mudhorn
THE UMBRELLA ACADEMY; Pilot; Pogo
Outstanding Created Environment in an Episode/Commercial/Real-Time Project
GAME OF THRONES; The Iron Throne; Red Keep Plaza
LOST IN SPACE; Precipice; The Trench
THE DARK CRYSTAL: AGE OF RESISTANCE; The Endless Forest
THE MANDALORIAN; Nevarro Town
Outstanding Model in a Photoreal or Animated Project
LOST IN SPACE; The Resolute
MISSING LINK; The Manchuria
THE MAN IN THE HIGH CASTLE; Rocket Train
THE MANDALORIAN; The Sin; The Razorcrest
Outstanding Effects Simulations in an Episode/Commercial/Real-Time Project
GAME OF THRONES; The Bells
Hennessy: The Seven Worlds
LOST IN SPACE; Precipice; Water Planet
STRANGER THINGS 3; Melting Tom/Bruce
THE MANDALORIAN; The Child; Mudhorn
Outstanding Compositing in an Episode
GAME OF THRONES; The Bells
GAME OF THRONES; The Long Night; Dragon Ground Battle
STRANGER THINGS 3; Starcourt Mall Battle
WATCHMEN; Pilot; Looking Glass
Outstanding Special (Practical) Effects in a Photoreal/Animated Project
GAME OF THRONES; The Bells
THE DARK CRYSTAL: THE AGE OF RESISTANCE; She Knows All the Secrets
Wish The Expanse had made a dent here.
Is it the Philomena/Brooklyn/Atonement here? It’s really not good enough…
Ridiculous.
Yes.
https://media1.giphy.com/media/LSjfIbBsIpe3Sc11xl/giphy.gif
Don’t tell Peter Farrelly that
We tell FeelingBlue2018 this same thing every year and every year they completely ignore it and strike out once more on their quest to single-handedly turn the Oscars into the MTV Awards.
It MIGHT win PGA. Maybe. It’ll never win DGA though, which is a far better indicator.
Anyone else think Joker has a shot at the PGA race?
But they made hundreds of millions. Exceeded Parasite’s box office dozens of times over. Surely the definition of excellently produced, and deserving of awards nominations.
Well, I guess it’s really over for Cats now. It’s a bitter, bitter truth I must learn to accept.
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On the ground here in LA I can tell you that Jojo is much more popular with voters than it is with critics/critics groups and film twitter. I personally am not surprised it is being recognized or remembered at this stage of the game.
😀
Brett is coming to say no, FvF will be out
Weren’t you just saying the other day that Parasite should be happy with a sole Foreign Film nod and “not be greedy?”
Errr…no. It’s the definition of box office. Dafuq does one have to do with the other?
As someone who WANTS more genre movies recognized by awards, your argument is a very stupid one. There are so many superhero movies – let alone other genre pics – that deserved award consideration far more than Endgame…
Transformers 1, great. T-Formers -2 one of the worst movies ever, and the producers admitted it on the Dark of the Moon blu-ray extras. DOTM pitiful first half, redeemed by awesome stunt work in its third act. Age of Extinction and The Last Knight; cinematic excrement.
If Greta Gerwig gets a Best Director nod, she would be rewarded for being one of the best five directors in 2019 — for taking definite risks with classic material and reframing a well-worn story with great relevancy and grace.
Bad overall day for Endgame: Just one BAFTA nom (seems like they have just as much a ghetto for sci-fi genre films as the Oscars do)….VFX, And just 3 mentions with VES. Marvel envy/bias?
I assume you were an ardent back of the Transformers franchise’s awards prospects?
And for the record, I’m a big MCU fan and think superhero films should be more in consideration than they often are, but posting box office totals is the most facile argument imaginable.
Comedy really is super strong right now. I love all 5 nominated plus The Good Place and others like Living With Yourself etc.
Not NECESSARILY true, but often times more correct than otherwise.
Schitt’s Creek and The Good Place are the best comedies on television, so I’m sad to see GP get booted over Maisel and Veep.
Blind Sides aside, I still think 10 is just easier and better. 7, 8, 9 are silly. For every Blind Side, there was also a District 9 – which, I found wonderful. And if a crowd pleaser gets in that’s not in My Top 10, so be it, but I’d still rather have 10 again.
It’s definitely getting a screenplay nod though.
These are the Oscar nominees minus knives out
Yes, any film directed by someone with an Italian last name
PGA was so predictable. 10/10
That is correct. It’s also ridiculous that members couldn’t write 10 down.
There are more indie gems than blockbuster masterpieces in the great twinkling sky of cinema.
From what I remember, when there were a solid 10 nominees, that meant that the voters had to list 10 movies on their ballots. There was an article around the time this new method started where anonymous Academy members were interviewed and complained about not being able to come up with that many movies they really loved to list on a ballot. So that’s why now they just have to list 5 movies, and you get anywhere between 5-10 nominees.
And one with much better reviews than the other, to boot.
Budgets exist.
It’s all because of “The Blind Side” 😛
No Barry is a dark comedy. YOU might not think it’s funny, but that’s beside the point.
Jojo Rabbit: $21,579,550 domestic
Avengers: Endgame: $858,730,000
Kinda the definition of a splendidly produced movie, yes?
Watchmen was the bee’s knees.
I just don’t get why they don’t have ten.
If, as expected, we cross out FvF and Knives Out, it will be an acceptable BP list at the Oscars, with only a couple of sore spots.
Yes Schitt’s Creek!! And Barry and The Crown and Succession. Am I the only one who found Watchmen terrible?
If only this was the actual BP list. Bring back the solid “10” 🙂
I believe they are usually around 10:00 AM PST / 1:00 PM EST
Jojo struck me as the type of film that desperately needed major critics’ wins to be considered a legit BP contender.
Stuff like this is why I hate the 10 film field for BP with only 5 directors.
I hope you’re right
Few critic wins but a lot of NOMINATIONS. And comparing Jojo box office with Knives Out box office is like comparing apples to oranges.
Damn, I missed one trying to be ballsy. Very predictable otherwise.
BAFTA kind of tells me Phillips gets in, and he’ll definitely siphon votes away from Tarantino from voters who prioritize edgier stuff.
joker and jo jo rabbit should not have been nominated. The Farewell, Pain and glory and the 2 popes are much better films than joker and jo.
Nice to see Ford v Ferrari get some love (and hopefully it can score a Best Picture nod as well). But there’s absolutely no surprises whatsoever on this list.
Few critics’ wins, mediocre box office (especially compared to Knives Out), I did say “mild” after all.
Sorry but that was definitely not a surprise.
I honestly would hate for Gerwig to be rewarded after such a sleazy Woke Twitter campaign waged on her behalf after the Globe nominations.
I still have this dream scenario where Parasite pulls a Roma with shock acting nods at the last minute. Unlike Roma, Parasite appears to be LOVED by the voters who see it instead of RESPECTED.
Jojo Rabbit? Instead of Avengers: Endgame, as much of a wishful thinking candidate that was. TV nominations are even worse.
Drama: Big Little Lies, The Crown, Game of Thrones, Succession, Watchmen
Comedy: Barry, Fleabag, Mrs Maisel, Schitt’s Creek, Veep
Limited: Chernobyl, Fosse/Verdon, True Detective, Unbelievable, When They See Us
Barry’s a drama. No matter what anybody says. And Shit’s Creek over The Good Place?
All predictable nominees, and yes, Little Women is getting nominated for BP. Ronan is also happening. I also think Gerwig could surprise.
The Popes have been excommunicated for good!
Mildly surprised Jojo Rabbit made the cut. Shock fifth DGA spot there?
Oooh we!
If it’s 9 at the Oscars, Knives Out is out. If it’s 8 at the Oscars, Ford v Ferrari is out. No surprises here. Would’ve loved to have seen Dolemite is My Name or just ANY A24 movie. They’ve been slacking lately in campaigning.
Easy to get 10/10 here. So predictable. I had The Farewell, but changed it to Knives Out.
5/5 for DGA should happen too, depending on Todd Phillips.
same lineup at oscars if 10 are the spots
Not one surprise but happy to see Little Women solidify itself.
I was hoping The Farewell would show up.